Just Thoughts!

[Edwards Kings]

Week 13 Results – This ended up being one of my better weeks. I ended up using both Duncan (no choice) and Rasmus (pulled that one out of my…), but ended up with a little luck unfortunately at the expense of the DeRosa and Khalil owners. Rasmus ended up with about 21 official AB, which means he played in at least five games. Hopefully his results will mean a full time job (0.500 BA, 7 R, 3 HR, and 4 RBI). Duncan had one hit in 16 AB, so I see more pine time for him, both in St.Louis and in the NFBC. Konerko hit well for me as well as both catchers (Hernandez and Baker), though with only 16 AB each. Beckham will have his ups and downs, but right now he was up. Batted 0.407 with 2 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI and even chunked in a SB. Rollins came back from his “rest” as flat as he was when he sat down, but turned up the heat over the weekend to hit 0.304. The rest of the team was poor, so I just missed my targets getting, for the week, a 0.279 BA with 39 R, 13 HR, 41 RBI and four SB. Decent, slightly better than mid-pack kind of week. Funny thing is…you do that every week or maybe just slightly better, and you are in contention.



Pitching was also “decent”. Only had six starts, but got three wins, which is just one from my target. The 42 K’s I got was also just under the 46 I wanted. ERA was actually good at 3.600 and WHIP was 1.289. Actually got four saves (two each Lidge and Soriano), small wonders never cease. Only one starter blew up and that was Gaudin. To be more precise, after getting two outs in the first inning versus the Dodgers, Gaudin gave up five earned runs. He stayed in through the fifth inning and gave only one more run, but by then the damage was done.



Week 14 Planning – First, I need to reset my targets. I am so down in eight of the ten categories, I am going to have to have one hot second half. It is possible, but I would hate to see the odds.



In the FA bidding, I dropped Duncan and Arroyo-yoyo. For the one, he will have to play to have value and prove he can hit for the same power he had prior to his neck injury to be useful. Except for a few weeks early, Duncan really hasn’t done that. I do not think he will get AB in the coming weeks, and I want to hold onto Beltre until I see how long he will be out, so I need to find someone who has a chance to a) get AB’s and b) has a chance to produce.



Arroyo I do not think has ever gotten over the carpal tunnel syndrome and I just cannot trust him. I have already screwed my ERA and WHIP with all these blow-up starts, Doug Davis carries enough risk already for my entire team, and I want to hold onto Sonnanstine, so like the above, I need to find someone who has a chance to a) start and b) has a chance to produce.



Since I needed a CM, I targeted Travis Ishikawa for my pick here and he is a gamble. He is playing every day, usually batting 7th or 6th for the Giants. The fact he hit well over the weekend with the HR on Friday influenced my decision. My back-up bid was on Prado, who DiamondKing reminded me is mainly a singles hitter. I got him with my bid of $33 for him and there was at least one other bid for $12, so with the fact I still have a little more than half my FA money, the bid and risk was reasonable in my mind. An additional plus to his show of power (three HR in last 10 games) for Ishikawa is he could be a trade tarket (LH stick, good glove).



I bid $32 on Anthony Swarzak and won him. There was a token runner-up bid of $2, but still a $29 overpayment is not too much at this stage. Swarzak has been one of the better prospects in the Twinkie organization for some time and was serviceable in his last call up. Minnesota has some weakness in its rotation, so he has a chance to stick even when Slowey gets back. He is not going to ring up impressive K’s and must therefore maintain his control. He usually gives up less than a hit per inning, so if he controls his walks, he could be good. More of a potential long-term (i.e. 2H) investment as his next start will be against the Yanks (at least it is in Minnesota against whomever the Yanks pull up to replace Wang).



Encarnacion is back and as bad as ever. Seriously, as bad as ever. He started Saturday and Sunday and did not even sniff those funny white square-thingies every 90 feet or so around a baseball diamond. I want to start him, but his is extremely risky. The Reds play seven on the road and I expect Encarnacion to start maybe four of them. With Konerko and Beckham already in my line-up, I could start Ishikawa at corner instead.



In the OF, I think I can add Rasmus to my current must-starts with BJ Upton, Pence, and Hawpe. Headley plays all his games on the road where he is hitting 0.304, including three in Arizona, so he becomes a start.



That leaves Hafner or Dickerson at UT. Hafner is getting the lions share of the AB now, but is still sitting about once a week. Same with Dickerson, who is playing pretty well (over his head?). I need power, however, so Hafner is in.



As to starting pitching, I am not going to be lucky enough to get three wins out of six starts forever, so I need to pump up my games started. In for sure are Vazquez, Kazmir, Danks and Wandy. Between the four of them, that is only 5 starts. My only other two-start pitchers are Davis, whose walks make him a prime candidate to blow-up any time, against SD and FLA, and Brett Anderson on the road at BOS and at TB. No risk there! Gaudin has a chance to get back on track at Arizona and Swarzak will be home versus the Yanks.



In order to get close to 10 starts, I really need to go with seven starters. Sure as shooting, if I sit down one of the Gonzalez/Soriano tandem, the other will get a save that I desperately need. Gonzalez has only had two saves in the last six weeks, so if I sit one, it will be him.



Postscript to Week 14 Planning – I did not start Brett Anderson. Damn.



Next up - Mid season reset.

[Edwards Kings]

Mid Season Reset – Though I know I have been saying I am close to “target” some weeks, I am way behind in most categories so I know that my targets have actually changed. In order to hit what I project I need to contend, I need to know just how much I need to claw back week to week. To add to my embarrassment, I am really in last place of a 14 team league as for the first time in my NFBC Main Event tenure, a team has phoned-it in with no moves what-so-ever since May 25th. I only hope some personal event has not kept him from participating further. Seemed like a nice guy at the draft.



Looking at it category by category is a gory proposition for me. My best two stats, K’s and SB have me with only 10 league points each. There is room to move up in both categories as I am only 25 K’s and 7 SB from 3.0 and 4.0 more points from each category respectively. In the other batting categories, I have hit my target for AB, which given the injuries and part timers I have been using is not bad. For BA, I was short about 4 hits a week on an average of 290 AB per week from hitting my BA target. I range from around a week and a half behind (Runs & RBI) to nearly three weeks behind (HR) in my other counting stats. The four categories other than SB total an anemic 21.0 points.



I had hoped at this time to have three or four batters with between 15 and 20 HR with most of the rest having between five and ten. Instead, I have four players with 11 to 13 HR (Konerko, Pence, Phillips and Hawpe) and nine players with between 5 and 8. For HR/R/RBI general targets would be to have all the players’ average out 10/40/39 respectively. By position, my catchers average 6/28/28, my CM 8/32/38, my MI 8/41/35, my OF 9/41/35, and UT 11/24/30. Those are some deep holes.



Pitching has me nearly 3/4 of a run over my target and more than an tenth too much WHIP. I am short ten wins and 14 saves. After K’s, my pitching is only pitching in 18.0 points. All pathetic. I have no ten game winners and only one pitcher above 100 K’s. Vazquez, Wandy, and Danks have been good, but Kazmir, Sonnanstine and Arroyo have disappointed. Doug Davis has given some decent starts, but his walks kill my WHIP. I need Sonnanstine and Kazmir to return to form. I also need to find one or two pitchers from the likes of Brett Anderson, Swarzak, Gaudin, or some other FA pool to take the sixth spot from Davis, and give me a solid #7.



Here is my roster from Draft day. First comments are mine just after the draft and I have added my Mid-Season assessment.



RD 1 Jimmy Rollins, SS – Seems if you do not get Hanley, Jose or Jimmy, you are at risk for this position. Should give me plus SB, R, and BA without killing HR/RBI. MIDSEASON: Known to have monster 2H but the hole he has dug in the 1H is deeper than any other year. My team results reek and I look here first for the reason.

RD 2 Brandon Phillips, 2B – Good play and now I have SB and MI locked. Have less to have to concentrate on in the Draft. Good rebound candidate. Hitting 3rd and playing half of his games at Great American. MID SEASON: Horrible start that he made up partly by hot May. Cooled again. Still, has double digit HR and SB. If he gets the average up to 0.280+, worth the pick.

RD 3 BJ Upton, OF – Steal. MIDSEASON: Came back quick and had horrible April and May but even so provided R and SB. Hot June. Power seems to be coming back. If I make a move in 2H, Upton will lead the way. With Pence and Phillips, five tool contributor (potentially).

RD 4 Hunter Pence, OF – Chose Pence over McLouth not so much to get Pence but to avoid McLouth. Best OF left available. MIDSEASON: Holding him back is batting 6th in the Astro line-up with Kaz Matsui hitting after him. Should finish the year in double digits for HR/SB and quite possibly a 20/20 guy. There is no way his swing will keep his average above 0.300 (0.388 May was insane), but 0.280 ok, so a little regression expected. Would love for him to have more RBI chances. Clutch hitter.

RD 5 Brad Lidge, CL – Planned to take either Paplebon, Nathan or Lidge (only one left). MIDSEASON: Here in early July he has finally strung together a couple of quality outings. Clearly hurt early and this “solid” pick went south early.

RD 6 Scott Kazmir, SP – Wanted Shields. Chose Kazmir over King Felix. MIDSEASON: Was warned, but took Kaz anyway. Still has stuff, but predictably got hurt, pitched bad, then went on DL. If this were a trading league, I would target this guy big time, but his early season blow ups are one of the key reasons my ERA/WHIP are so bad. With a hot 2H, could still win 15 games this year. Wanted 20.

RD 7 Adrian Beltre, 3B – Wanted Corner. Beltre best of what was left. Contract year. MIDSEASON: Knew he was coming off injury, and gambled anyway. This one bit me. Mr. Consistency was anything but. No power and I was counting on 20-25. As of know, rehabbing from latest surgery. If I can glean any useful information from the reports and it looks like he will be out 4-6 weeks, may hold onto him. If not…???

RD 8 Javier Vazquez, SP – Wanted him. 200+ K’s. MIDSEASON: From where it stands right now (knock on wood), I got this one right. That’s one!

RD 9 Brad Hawpe, OF – Best of what was around. My first real “value” pick of the draft. Didn’t really want another OF, but too good to pass up. MIDSEASON: Showed 30+ HR power in May and June, but is not really. Good shot at 25, though. Love the clutch hitting and the .0320+ BA could be for real.

RD 10 Edwin Encarnacion, 3B – Reached, but I really like him. Best of CM left IMHO. MIDSEASON: Total and complete flop. No defense, no power, no durability, no hitting. Watch him have a good August and September just to tease me for next year.

RD 11 Mike Gonzalez, CL – Last of the 2nd tier closers. Near end of CL run. MIDSEASON: Pretty much a total flop as Bobby Cox first used platoon then looks like Soriano will get the ball more in the 9th.

RD 12 John Danks, SP – It was either him or Verlander. MIDSEASON: Had a horrible run from late April to early June (five bad starts out of eight). Dead arm? Seems better now, but the Cubbies and KC will do that for you. As a matter of fact, take the KC games out of his game log and his stats are pretty ugly. Still, has the talent. Could be much better in second half.

RD 13 Paul Konerko, 1B – Chasing power a bit after first three picks. MIDSEASON: He was one of my targets and so far (knock on more wood), he has delivered. That’s two!

RD 14 Ramon Hernandez, C – Best C left. My only hitter projected to hit after the #6 spot. I am lucky as I have no injuries in my catching core, but my catchers are a bit disappointing. MID SEASON: Has dual position eligibility and I hate it. I do not need another 1B. In his 29 games at 1B, he is hitting 0.202. In his 44 games at catcher, he is hitting 0.284.

RD 15 Wandy Rodriguez, SP – Kind of high on him. MIDSEASON: A wiseman advised me to, to paraphrase, “date Wandy, but marry someone else because he will break your heart!” The advice may still hold and 30 is too old for a breakout, but his skills have always been there, much like Vazquez. Had a rough stretch in June where he was giving up HR in droves. May be better now and may be one of the best #4 starters.

RD 16 Felipe Lopez, 2B – Kind of like this pick here. OK for MI. MIDSEASON: Pretty empty BA with a few SB. Still, with 15 teams, we need to start 45 MI. The NFBC has him ranked #30, so not a bad pick. No Aaron Hill or Orlando Hudson, but not a bad gamble pick here. The 19 RBI are holding him back. The Diamondbacks are just awful this year.

RD 17 Andy Sonnanstine, SP – SP really going for a premium in my draft. MIDSEASON: Add to the roster of Rollins, Lidge, Beltre, and Encarnacion serious disappointments. Shandler had concerns over falling DOM, but his control was always good. As a #5 starter for me, playing on a good team, he should have given me decent ERA, good WHIP and Wins and been better than some #4 or #3 starters. Nada!

RD 18 Travis Hafner, DH – First time taking DH. Chasing power a bit. Gamble. MIDSEASON: The DL trip hurt my counting stats, but appears to be reasonably healthy. They “say” he is the man for now. Will play five games out of six from here on out health permitting. Indians are going no where, but Hafner can hit LH and RH. A 15 HR 2H and a 0.280 BA is not out of the question.

RD 19 Chase Headley, OF – Hate the park, love the player. MIDSEASON: Part time player for me as his home/road splits are sick. Who will the Padre’s trade next?

RD 20 John Baker, C – I have been watching this guy since last year. A Dave Clum pick. He is really high on this projected #2 hitter. MID SEASON: Baker is only catching three days in five which may be a blessing in September, but Paulino is eating too many of his AB. It started out that he would hit 2nd in the Marlins line-up. However, he has only been allowed to do that in about 1/3 of his games. He is hitting 0.288 from the #2 spot though.

RD 21 Bronson Arroyo, SP – I am higher on him than most because of his finish. MIDSEASON: I was just wrong. This guy killed me. I had to use him more than I wanted to because of the Kazmir injury, but that is no excuse.

RD 22 Ryan Church, OF – 450-500 AB, I will like this pick. Less, not so much. MIDSEASON: Lost AB early and I had injury problems, so I dropped him. That was probably premature. Good candidate for a good 2H.

RD 23 Chris Duncan, OF – Wait to you see who else I picked. MIDSEASON: Looked good early, bad the rest. Had to use him because of Encarnacion injury. Lost in the St. Louis OF shuffle, especially now with DeRosa. Had to drop him at mid-season.

RD 24 Rafael Soriano, RL – Handcuff for Gonzalez. MIDSEASON: Smart move as he is now the primary closer (I think) in Atlanta. Got lite up recently, but other wise his stuff is NASTY.

RD 25 Colby Rasmus, OF – Between Duncan and him, could be fifth OF or DH. MIDSEASON: May be playing his way into full time role and is generally getting just enough AB (20-21) a week to make it worthwhile. Still would like to see more speed and less KO’s.

RD 26 Lyle Overbay, 1B – Solid if unspectacular. Could be DH if Hafner falters. MIDSEASON: Went through a period where he was getting less than 10 AB a week. Seemed to get his job back in June after I dropped him. Not so solid, but increasingly streaky hitter.



I will stop here as the next four guys were gone fast. Interesting not is that I drafted CJ Wilson, whom I dropped for JP Howell, whom I dropped for Ryan Madson. Wish I had kept Howell.



So, as far as my new targets go (if you are still awake) I need to hit 0.2953 (impossible, be better than anyone has done 1H) with 47 R, 47 RBI, and 13 HR each week the rest of the way out (improbable but possible). If I keep stealing bases I expect to climb up the rankings there and make up for some of the BA shortfall.



For pitching, I want to get 10 starts a week (very tough) with a 3.1962 (only four teams did better in 1H, so no chance), a 1.1756 (only three teams and I have Doug Davis, so nope) with 4 to 5 wins (depends almost solely on luck). Saves target is out of reach unless I have three full time closers, making the 10 GS nearly impossible. I expect to continue to wrack up K’s, so that will make up some of the other shortfalls, but not enough. In short, I need the best half on record to really be a leader. I expect to move up, but to get past “mediocre” to “contention” and by “contention” I many any league money position will be exceeding expectations given the hole I have dug.







[ July 07, 2009, 08:28 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[DOUGHBOYS]

Wayne, I really enjoy the thread.

Last year I had one of those tough years where everything I did seemed to end in more misery for my team. It's a damned if you do and damned if you don't sort of feel.

Anyway, I know you didn't solicit advice. But a couple of your comments on draft day surprised me, coming from a veteran.

One of the great joys about drafts are the moving parts. Every draft is different and thinking on the fly is crucial.

Lets take a look back at some of the comments.



'Seems if you don't get Hanley, Jose, or Jimmy you are at risk for the position'.

A draft day trap. The "They saids" are at work here. This is boxing yourself in to a single position. Convincing yourself, or being convinced, that these three SS's will have no peers during the coming season.

Rollins was an ok pick here, but the thought process before picking Rollins is flawed.

About Brandon Phillips- 'And now I have MI and sb locked up'

With this said, your next two picks were also speed-power type guys in Upton and Pence. These two rounds were crying out for a Fielder, Youkilis, Quentin type of masher.

'Wanted Shields. Picked Kazmir over King Felix'

It becomes apparent that the positions have become more important than the flow of the draft. In round five, Lidge was taken. He was the lesser of the relievers that was sought. But there is no mention of maybe taking a starter or more offense.

In round six, the same thing, you "settle" for Kazmir instead of looking at other options.

The two best comments made were for #8 and #10, Vazquez and Encarnacion. You said, ' Wanted him'for Vazquez and 'Reached. But I really like him' for Encarnacion.

Why did it take till round 8 to begin taking players that were really wanted? I wanted to hear this from the getgo. Until this point, it was more or less checking off grocery items in the cart.

Based on only notes, it seems this draft was entered with positionality and speed being the domineering trains of thought. Plus, a little of the "They saids" in the back of the mind."They saids" are magazines, writers, posters, anybody who influences decisions made, such as one player or position being more important than another.



I offer this up as a different perspective and not of ridicule. Just trying to help out a poster that has my respect.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Wayne, I really enjoy the thread.

Last year I had one of those tough years where everything I did seemed to end in more misery for my team. It's a damned if you do and damned if you don't sort of feel.

Anyway, I know you didn't solicit advice. But a couple of your comments on draft day surprised me, coming from a veteran.

One of the great joys about drafts are the moving parts. Every draft is different and thinking on the fly is crucial.

Lets take a look back at some of the comments.



'Seems if you don't get Hanley, Jose, or Jimmy you are at risk for the position'.

A draft day trap. The "They saids" are at work here. This is boxing yourself in to a single position. Convincing yourself, or being convinced, that these three SS's will have no peers during the coming season.

Rollins was an ok pick here, but the thought process before picking Rollins is flawed.

About Brandon Phillips- 'And now I have MI and sb locked up'

With this said, your next two picks were also speed-power type guys in Upton and Pence. These two rounds were crying out for a Fielder, Youkilis, Quentin type of masher.

'Wanted Shields. Picked Kazmir over King Felix'

It becomes apparent that the positions have become more important than the flow of the draft. In round five, Lidge was taken. He was the lesser of the relievers that was sought. But there is no mention of maybe taking a starter or more offense.

In round six, the same thing, you "settle" for Kazmir instead of looking at other options.

The two best comments made were for #8 and #10, Vazquez and Encarnacion. You said, ' Wanted him'for Vazquez and 'Reached. But I really like him' for Encarnacion.

Why did it take till round 8 to begin taking players that were really wanted? I wanted to hear this from the getgo. Until this point, it was more or less checking off grocery items in the cart.

Based on only notes, it seems this draft was entered with positionality and speed being the domineering trains of thought. Plus, a little of the "They saids" in the back of the mind."They saids" are magazines, writers, posters, anybody who influences decisions made, such as one player or position being more important than another.



I offer this up as a different perspective and not of ridicule. Just trying to help out a poster that has my respect. Thanks. I am glad you like the blog. You, as always, bring up interesting points. I agree to some extent to all, but want to go deeper into my thoughts at the time I made the picks.



There was a lot of positionality in my draft this year, no doubt. To boot, there was also recognition or reafirmation of an old belief that a balanced team has a better chance to succeed and to weather the inevitable injuries. Right or wrong, I looked at the positions and categories and felt their was a great deal of depth at 1B, OF, and SP. SS I thought was very thin and closers were more unsettled than any time I can remember. To boot, the last two years I left the draft short on steals and saves. Last year, I ended up very strong to finish 4th in Orlando. Made me think what would have happened if I had left with a little more of both. Also, I like those four and five category performers.



Just to give a little more of my thinking, after Rollins (speed) and Phillips (speed/power balance), I went into the third looking for power. As expected, at the turn, guys like Lee, Morneau, AmRam, Fielder, Bay and Manny went. I was eyeballing Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez(though not Quentin due to concerns over how his 2008 wrist injury would impact his 2009 power) because I knew I needed the power. But Upton was there, another speed/power combo. I got him later than anyone else and felt it was an opportunity. Not a challenge, but honestly would you have passed up on him even after Rollins/Phillips? I guess I also rationalized that another balanced player would help we weather injury if one key player went down.



After that, the best power source left, IMHO, was Dunn, Ortiz, McLouth, and Pence. Dunn carried the BA risk, Ortiz carried the state of Rhode Island, and McLouth was a bit of a one year wonder in my mind, almost too hot a pick to take as there was sooooo much hype. I understand your point however and it is well taken. I had balance, but the best power types were now behind me.



I had the SS ranked Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins. After that, the choices would be Furcal, Drew, Tulowitzki, Jeter, Hardy, Peralta. Each carried his own baggage/risk and performing at their best probably come up short, in some cases significantly, than the first three. So I guess I did some positional scacity drafting in that regard. Same with 2B. Utley and Kinsler were coming of injuries and Pedroia has had one really good year. I liked Brian Roberts, but thought I had no chance at him middle-third, which is where I thought he should go. If I had missed out on Phillips (or Roberts), I would have gone for a Cano or Lopez somewhere between 7 and 9.



Beltre and Encarnacion I did like and I did stretch about two rounds to get them. There was no need to stretch more as I got Beltre with my 98th pick (ADP 127) and Encarnacion 143 (ADP 169).



Most of the power and speed I thought I could count on I viewed as being gone by the end of the 4th round. To me, this opened up prime pitching opportunities. The fifth round was a dead zone to me offensively with guys like (no offense to anyone who has these guys) Uggla and Ortiz going. The list of Closers I really wanted to anchor (four) was much shorter than my deeper list of SP whom I thought had a real chance to be a #1. Turns out my SP list was shorter than I thought but thems the risks you take. Felix would have turned out much better, but I just did not think Seattle would produce at all for him this year. I went with TB because I thought they were the better offensive team.



I guess I did approach like a grocery risk, but it was based on who I wanted and when I thought I COULD get them. For example, I felt that the drop off of the SS, 2B, OF, and 3B I COULD get in the first 10 rounds was much greater than what I could get SP in the second 10 rounds. So, after my second closer (check that one off), after locking up speed (Phillips, Upton, Rollins), locking in some multiple category performer depth (I had most of the guys I drafted in the first 10 as capable of hitting at least 20 HRs as well as steal more than a few bases, Hawpe accepted), two starters with 200+ K ability, and a top 3 Closer, I could focus on rounding out the pitching staff while waiting for some value picks (Konerko) to swim by. At this point, I was looking for one main category (power) and one main position (pitcher). Though circumstances have proven otherwise, I FELT I was in control.



Thanks for the comments!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Very interesting.

A case where the value pick may have actually have hurt a team. Even with the value pick performing up to standard.

While Upton has performed well, he is not giving of the categories that were needed in the third round. Which is home runs and rbi.

On other teams, such as those with M Cabrera and Longoria, Upton may have fit like a glove. But with Rollins and Phillips, not so much.

It does make it tough when looking at the likes of Ortiz and Uggla...or Uggtiz

The Missouri/Missouri rule comes in on Pedroia and he is not (understandably) having the same year as last year.



Hypothetical-

If you could drink only one liquid for the rest of your life, besides water, what would it be?



Wait...I got my notes crossed, here's the hypothetical-

If you could go back in time to the draft and change one of your top four picks, who would it be?

[KJ Duke]

Interesting reading Wayne.



Which makes me think I should take a look at my pre-season predictions for the lge and see how everyone is looking now. I know I've missed big on at least two teams - not having Chicks Dig the Long Ball as a top team, and my team's batting disaster.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Hypothetical-

If you could drink only one liquid for the rest of your life, besides water, what would it be?



Wait...I got my notes crossed, here's the hypothetical-

If you could go back in time to the draft and change one of your top four picks, who would it be? Iced tea. Yeah, I know the correct answer is beer, but us Southerners have a special bond with both.



Good question on the other. I do not see any circumstance where, in March, I would have picked Utley or Kinsler. So I would have to say the flip side of the Rollins coin, Ryan Howard. If I had picked Howard, I would probably have taken Crawford in the second. Hindsight makes that duo MUCH better than Rollins/Phillips, and perhaps foresight should have, too.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Interesting reading Wayne.



Which makes me think I should take a look at my pre-season predictions for the lge and see how everyone is looking now. I know I've missed big on at least two teams - not having Chicks Dig the Long Ball as a top team, and my team's batting disaster. I remember. You had me as a 35:1 longshot at winning the league. Who would've thunk it you were being VERY generous!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Iced tea. Yeah, I know the correct answer is beer, but us Southerners have a special bond with both. Ahhh, but there is no correct answer, only personal preference.

Beer drinkers will have us for lunch , but I will go diet pepsi and leave all the Corona's for Greg.

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Iced tea. Yeah, I know the correct answer is beer, but us Southerners have a special bond with both. Ahhh, but there is no correct answer, only personal preference.

Beer drinkers will have us for lunch , but I will go diet pepsi and leave all the Corona's for Greg. [/QUOTE]I'd stick with the home team and go with calif red wine, which is pretty much no change since water and wine is about it for me anyway.

[Edwards Kings]

Can I go on record right now that Paul Konerko should be AL MVP? Now, if he can just repeat last night say six or eight more times....in the next two weeks...

[Joe Sambito]

Wayne,



I too enjoy your read. The retrospective is particularly interesting. I was sitting at pick #9 and debated with myself all week either Kinsler or Howard. I had pretty much decided on Howard when boom Sizemore was still there. Altered my plan and have been "grinding" every since.



As for a beverage, I'll take a Mountain Dew!

[Edwards Kings]

As I take another unscheduled break from the real world, I thought the data below might be fun. I took, using the NFBC Rankings, the players by position to determine mid-season "average". For example, for the first fifteen highest ranked OFers, I would average their stats as of last night and determine what the NFBC "average" best OFer on a team would look like. The next fifteen highest ranked OFer would be the "OF2" and so on. For the MI and CM, I took the first fifteen ranked SS, then the first fiftenn ranked 2B, and the next highest ranked SS or 2B would be the official "MI" player for the calculation. I tried to avoid double counting and took players at the scarcest position (i.e. VMart is a catcher). You get my drift. Add it all up, you get an "Average" team.



Pos BA AB R H HR RBI SB BB



OF1 0.2889 299 52 86 14 49 17 37

OF2 0.3057 282 45 86 12 43 8 32

OF3 0.2764 290 42 80 10 42 7 29

OF4 0.2636 267 40 70 10 34 5 29

OF5 0.2570 219 32 56 7 26 8 26

1B 0.2865 295 48 84 18 57 2 44

3B 0.2863 282 47 81 13 45 7 34

CM 0.2738 271 35 74 9 39 1 28

2B 0.2753 302 47 83 11 44 8 29

SS 0.2926 286 46 84 9 38 10 27

MI 0.2778 240 35 67 4 25 6 20

C1 0.2805 235 32 66 10 37 1 23

C2 0.2424 175 19 43 5 22 1 20

UT 0.2606 199 26 52 6 27 5 21



TOT 0.2780 3,642 544 1,012 137 529 85 399





So, what would these numbers get you? You would have the 100th ranked offense in the NFBC Main. About 100 guys would be looking down at you, and about 290 guys would be jealous of you.



Anyway, just for grins. I bumped it up against my team, and of course faired none to well as I have about the 300th ranked offense.

[headhunters]

wayne- being a sox fan and knowing you had konerko- what a night. his bat looked really quick- but when alexi gets the pitch he wants his bat speed is amazing for a guy that weighs maybe 150. too bad the sox can't play cleveland every night. vazquez a win soriano a save. chicago was it yesterday for you. speaking of alexi- even steve stone is questioning why he is still playing ss. i suppose beckhams bat plays at 3rd with the lineup the sox have now- but it isn't getting any younger. sox look ready to dump ajp this year or next- which i won't like. the guy is a better catcher than people think imho.

[Edwards Kings]

Hey Mike!



So, was Stone inferring Alexi at 2nd, Beckham at SS and Fields at 3B? Can Fields handle it?

[Edwards Kings]

Also, when Quentin comes back, does Dye, Thome, Konerko slip one back in the line-up. That would suck for me as Konerko hitting sixth does not seem as valuable to me than a Konerko hitting fifth.

[headhunters]

alexi- 3 times double play ball to second basemen. 3 times no alexi at the bag. stone thinks center field. it won't happen this year i don't think. konerko was batting 6th a lot last year. it was q, thome, dye, konerko against righties. i would say q bats 6th in the beginning and konerko 5th against righties. 4th against lefties.

[Edwards Kings]

Week 14 Results – Not a bad week for the sticks going into the All Star void. For the week offensively, my team was carried by Konerko (.0391 with 5 runs, 3 dingers and 10 RBIs), Felipe Lopez (0.321, 5, 2, 6) and…wait for it…Jimmy Rollins (0.370, 8, 0, 2, and 5 SB) and Edwin Encarnacion (0.318, 3, 1, 3). OK, Encarnacion’s numbers were not all that great, and it really was a toss up to start him or Ishikawa (0.348, 2, 1, 1, and 1 SB). Both were good but it was nice to see Encarnacion start to look like he can almost, nearly (how many qualifiers am I allowed before I am over the limit) turn it around. I was counting on him being worth a Top 10 pick. Week 14 is a little late, but I will take what I can get.



On the road with starts at Boston and Tampa Bay looked like too much risk for Brett Anderson. He finished with one win, no ERA, twelve K’s in 13.0 IP and a 0.6154 WHIP. Doooooh! With the wheels coming off of Davis’ second start, Danks walking five in his start, Kazmir stinking it up again, and Swarzak doing his impression of a pinball machine, it is amazing that I only had a 4.179 team ERA to go with the 1.375 WHIP. I did get three wins (one from Davis and Wandy and Javier were excellent) and six saves thanks to Soriano’s four. Soriano has really supplanted Gonzalez, who has a sore elbow again. As a whole, my team was primed for a BIG week going into Friday, but the wheels came off over the weekend and I finished with something like the 30th best week. Not bad but it could have been special.



WeeK 15 Planning – Looking for some new blood. Or maybe I am just channeling Shawn Childs. I cut loose on some of my FA money excess and bid very aggressively for Andruw Jones. I am in desperate need for power and the last seven games before the break, Jones was batting clean-up for the Rangers. I am sure the three-homer game had something to do with it. I am already in the hole with my BA, so this is very risky, but Jones has been hitting in a little bad luck. Texas…summer…DH role…OF eligible…batting clean-up with Kinsler, Young and Hamilton ahead of him…lots of pluses. I clearly overpaid as my $111 was $90 more than I needed. I still have more than $350, so it is not like I have drained the well. Good rationalization. I dropped Beltre. I just didn’t have the room for a DL spot with some of the other pick-ups I made.



I also picked up Rauch for a gamble pick that he will either be traded or, more likely, Qualls will be traded. This gives me too many relievers as I dropped Davis to get him, so I do not expect him to be on my roster longer than a couple of weeks unless he gets the closer role. I got him for $31 with no second place bid, which was surprising. I guess I am one of the few who think he will have some 2H value. Davis and his walks came to roost in Week 14. I have this very strong feeling that we have seen his 2009 best, which was really some good ERA and K’s. Arizona didn’t win for him and the walks killed the WHIP anyway.



Lastly, I took another gamble. I place $1 bids on a host of pitchers for one of my reserve spots who could contribute in the 2H. In no particular order, I lost out on J. Sanchez ($34), Cecil ($5), Rzepczynski (buy a vowel, dude…$4), and Snell ($3). I got Fausto Carmona, he of the one good year. Not much for strike-outs, he has been pitching pretty well in AAA.



Now on the bubble for my team are two of the guys I just bought (i.e. they need to shine fast) Rauch and Carmona. Also, at least one other reliever (Madson or Gonzalez) because I just cannot carry so many, and Swarzak. Swarzak looks like he could have some promising starts coming up in Week 16. If he doesn’t produce, he will be gone.



As to line-up for the week, I am going with the six pitchers who have starts this week (Wandy, Vazquez, Kazmir, Danks, Gaudin, and Anderson) as well as Soriano and Lidge. With Gonzalez nursing the elbow, that leaves either Madson or Rauch. The Phillies play one more game, so I am going with Madson.



I have five guys going for one OF and on UT spot. Chris Dickerson (who may be the prime beneficiary of the Bruce injury), Headley, and Jones could jump into the OF spot. Add to the losers among them Hafner and Ishikawa for the DH spot. Headley is at home, so I will sit him. Late Thursday afternoon Dickerson was described as walking around like Fred Sanford, so he is down. Makes it easy to go with the guy I wanted in there anyway in Jones. As to DH, both LH Hafner and LH Ishikawa are facing a combined five LH pitchers compared to two RHers. Since Bowker is also LH, I am assuming that Ishikawa will play in two of the Giants three games. I am going with Hafner as his team has four games and I predict he will play in three. We will see.

[Edwards Kings]

Nice little start for Anderson. 6 2/3 of perfect game. 8.0 IP of two hit shut out. Win? Nooooooo!

[Edwards Kings]

Week 15 Results – Overall results for batting were fine if you like empty BA. As a team, the BA was 0.3094 but was a little lite on AB (collectively Baker and Hernandez got me six AB and nothing else out of the catcher position), Runs, RBIs, HR and SB. Headley even hit for BA, thanks to a three for four Friday and finished the weekend with five hits, but only one extra-base hit (PH homerun). So of my five guys going for the one OF spot and UT spot, the best combo would have been Hafner (0.400 BA but nothing else) and Headley. Jones and Dickerson only had one hit each and Ishikawa none.



For pitching, I ended up with three wins in six starts and easily could have had two more. Danks was not effective, but won. Gaudin and Kazmir had good starts, but with concerns (Gaudin four walks in five IP and Kazmir only three K’s with four walks in six IP). Good results with that many free passes is luck. Wandy, Vazquez and Brett Anderson totaled nearly half of my IP for the short week (21.0 IP) and gave up collectively one ER with 17 K’s and three walks to go with the 13 hits. Anderson did not get a win which is a shame since he was perfect through 6 2/3, a record held by many.



Lidge continues to smell it up like a fish well past its prime. Soriano continues to impress. Gonzalez came back Sunday to pitch a good inning and I know the ever faithful Cox will give him an occasional chance to close.



Week 16 Planning – I was all set to stand pat until two things happened. First, I became enamored with Mat Latos. Bad team, strict pitch count, and statements from the Pads saying they will limit his 2009 IP severely make him at best a rental for a few weeks. Serious Tacos out bid me for him. My second choice was Niemann, who the Tacos also got, paying even more for him than Latos. I ended up with Miller for $9. Stunk it up yesterday going short innings twice in a row now. I like his stuff, but he is really scuffling now. His next start is at LAD and he has had trouble on the road.



The other thing that drew me in to the FA bidding this week was the announcement that Ramon Hernandez will have surgery. I placed a bid on Hanigan, who I thought would breeze through for $1, but Zefurs decided to place a $15 bid on him. Unless KJ Duke is going to sit Weiters or Montero, this was an excellent blocking move. Hanigan will bring little more than BA, but he would have helped my team. I am left with Jason Kendall. Felipe Lopez, who just got traded to MIL, will bat lead-off, so Kendall drops down to 8th. The good news is he is batting around 0.250 (that is good news?) with a 0.335 OBA, his most productive, such that it is, spot in the line-up. I hope Hernandez comes back quick. These are lost AB to me.



Besides Hernandez, I received another swift kick in the johnnies when DeRosa took Rasmus #2 spot in the line-up Saturday. If that becomes the norm, Rasmus value goes way down as a #6 or #7 hitter as the back end of the St. Louis hitting line-up is week at best. Rasmus was back in the #2 hole Sunday (no puns please ). Both games were against RHers, so I am not sure what is in LaRussa’s mind. I am nervous.



Nelson Cruz’s broken finger probably helps assure Andruw Jones spot in the Texas line up this week (three at home then three at KC). However, since his big three HR night, he has one hit in nineteen AB’s. My other options are Dickerson, Hafner, Ishikawa and Headley who are all pretty much LH hitters (Headley is a SH but has not done well against LHP this year). Hafner has actually hit pretty well against LH in limited chances this year (including three HR and five walks in 40 AB) and actually played in the three games out of four this weekend that I had predicted. He faces five LH pitchers in six games this week, so I see him with four starts with one sit on Wednesday and the other on Sunday. Ishikawa gets six RH in seven games. He plays five, losing one game to Bowker at least and probably one to Aurilia. Headley has four of his seven games on the road and faces two LH (one in Philly and one in Washington). Dickerson gets two LH pitchers in six road games this week (one in LA and on in Chicago). Basically, a bunch of decent but not great options to fill the last two spots. I am leaning towards the awesome duo of Jones and Headley.



Pitching is not an issue this week. I have a couple of two start pitchers. Swarzak goes against Oakland and LAA on the road. This is his chance to shine. No shine, no longer on my team. He was pretty bad against the Yanks in his last start before the All Star break, but I am trying not to hold that against him. The other six starters will be Vazquez, Kazmir, Wandy, Anderson, Danks and Gaudin (vs FLA at home and WAS on the road). I released Gonzalez and Madson, so I guess I am working without a net. On the bench is Rauch, whom I still hope will get the chance to close either by or because of a trade, Miller the man on the bubble, and Carmona, my $1 gamble from last week. I wonder when CLE will call him up?

[Ryan C]

I wouldn't worry too much about Rasmus - looks like LaRussa is going to bat him second against RHP and DeRosa second against LHP.

[Edwards Kings]

Went to the Braves game yesterday. Was expecting to be underwhelmed with Zito and Kawakami. The Braves were going for a four game sweep, but the Giants had nothing to worry about. Their best player had it all in hand. Yup, that Jeff Kellogg is special and he can really impact a game. Against Atlanta, everything from the bill of the hat to the shoe-laces is a strike to Kellogg.







Of course, Kellogg tossed Cox (big surprise :rolleyes: ) when Cox complained about the "strike-out" of Escobar. I haven't seen an umpire this bad since MLB finally decided to part ways with that gas-bag Eric Gregg.



Kellogg called Chipper out as well on a very questionable pitch. Next couple of times Chipper came up, as he crossed behind the plate to bat right-handed, he leaned in with what were I think a few choice words for Kellogg. By the end of the game, Kellogg made sure he was standing where Chipper could not whisper sweet nothings in his ear.



Actually, it was a pretty weak effort by the entire crew as several close plays were missed. On one early SB attempt, the runner I thought made the bag very clearly before the throw was recieved, and in my mind I had time to cadance the thought "safe-two-three-tag". Ump called the runner out.



Kawakami labored for the Braves, and that was not Kellogg's fault (well, not all as Kellogg's zone judgement elicited at least four very loud groans from the collective congregation). Lots of pitches. A couple of bouncers. Fastball topped out at about 88 mph, breaking and off speed 64-72mph, but he is not an efficient pitcher. Averaged 20 pitches per inning and was gassed by the fifth. The second time I have seen him pitch in person this year and I am not impressed. He is a gamer, not doubt, but he will put a strain on the bullpen.



The kid playing second base for the Giants yesterday (his name escapes me) should not be in the majors. Totally lost at the plate. Struck out on two consecutive 64 mph BP change-ups tossed by Kawakami.



Gonzalez took a shot off the arm near the elbow. He was heading back to the mound at the beginning of that disasterous eighth inning, but I think the contusion was too close to the surgically repaired elbow for the Braves and he was replace.



I will say this for Zito. While Kellogg was, shall we say, giving him the benefit of the doubt with regards to the strike zone, the only hard hit ball against him was Escobar's "Angels in the Outfield" aided HR.



The fan in front of me is a big Giants fan and is not a charter member of the Fred Lewis fan club. In his opinion, Lewis cannot hit in the clutch. My seats are behind the visitors dugout, so I get to have some good conversations with other teams fans.



The Braves scouted the Giants LH hitters as not being able to turn on even Kawakami's 88mph fastballs. Church was playing a true right-center, and Prado/Johnson were positioned as if it were a RH hitter. Church had to make a couple of decent running catches, but by and large, the scounting was correct. Not really good news for Ishikawa, Sandoval, Lewis or Schierholtz.



[ July 24, 2009, 07:39 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Edwards Kings]

Horrible blown call at first base by Ump Rob Drake, who is part of the same crew as Jeff Kellogg. I thought that team blew several calls at the last Braves game I attended. Slack. Very slack.

[DiamondKing]

Braves advance scout is Bobby Wine.One of my favorite people in baseball.If you bump into him before a game.Stop and chat for awhile.You will walk away pleased with the time spent.

[Edwards Kings]

I've let this string kind of die because I wasn't adding anything new. I add and subtract players, but continue to get the same disappointing results. Very bummed and I have given no competition to my league this year which is a total emabarrassment. Just another messed up year with a no-show in the money slots. Still making moves but planning for 2010 is beginning.



On a less-pouty note, FINALLY made it to the see the AAA Gwinnett Braves and actually went twice this weekend (Friday as my daughters high school band played the "Star Spangled Banner" and "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" and Saturday as Wakefield was throwing in rehab) to see some games against Pawtucket.



First, the stadium is new, clean, staffed and friendly. It cost somewhere around $64m, so it should be nice. Hosted its first game on April 17, 2009, when 10,427 fans watched the Norfolk Tides (Orioles) beat the Braves 7-4. The first hit in the stadium was a single by Matt Wieters. Barbaro Canizares hit the first home run. It has 7,777 fixed seats, but there is an outfield berm where you can get seats for $6. While all the seats are great, don't sit on the 3rd base (home team) side if you do not like the afternoon sun. By about the second inning, all seats are in the shade, but probably until about the fourth inning, LF is a bear to play as the sun is right in your face. CF ain't no picnic either for a couple of innings. There is a freaky sun spot that has the mound in the shade, the plate in the shade, but sun in between until nearly the middle innings that cannot be a batter favorite. Parking is about $3, but the food is just below major stadium prices ($3.50 1:8 hot dogs and $5 domestic draft). They have some other choices that are good. Local events and organizations have booths up as well, so you get a home-town feel. Buying a hat ($20 to $32) or a tee-shirt is still expensive. All in all I give the stadium four-stars for look, three-stars for design of the playing field, three-stars for food/concessions, and three-stars for atmosphere (Duluth, GA is a pretty laid back place, so there is as much socializing as baseball watching).



Crowds have been mediocre since the first month, though Pawtucket and Wakefield filled it up yesterday.



As to Pawtucket, the BoSox have NOTHING in the high minors. Chris Duncan, who started out in St. Louis and on my team this year, when 0-8 in the two games with four K's. The man is lost. Jeff Bailey, whom I had a ghost of memory about a few years ago when he was a "hot" prospect, is now a 30 year old career minor leaguer who is blocked at 1B and DH from going any higher, was an International League star last year and has had a cup of coffee in the majors, had a good game Friday, but nothing Saturday.



The Pawtucket pitching staff is tougher to decide as both Friday and Saturday featured knuckle-ballers Zink and Wakefield. Zink was hammered and Wakefield was not overextending himself (pitched into the fourth and declared himself "ready" after the game).



The Bravos don't have much either at AAA right now. Chris Burke landed here and played a game at second and a game in LF. Didn't get a chance to gauge how much speed he has left as both knuckleballers allowed anyone with one leg at least within two-inches of the other to steal, but he did chase down a well hit ball into the LF corner, which I do not think anyone else in the ballpark would have gotten to. On Friday, he turned a couple of decent double plays. Bradon Jones is there and looked "OK". Diory Hernandez showed some glove at SS, but there was a lot of loft on his throws and Canizares and Timmons both had to stretch for throws. Brian Barton is with the Braves now to, and really didn't have a lot of action in RF.



Can't say much about the Braves bats because it is not fair to judge against a knuckle-ball. They scored plenty of runs and spread the wealth around.



I got to see John Halama (yes, that John Halama) pitch as well as Tim Redmond and Buddy Carlyle pitch. Exciting... Halama has actually started nine games with good (AAA) success, but I saw nothing to make me believe he is anything other than filler right now.



Anyway, nice stadium and nice (suburban, white-collar) atmosphere. I think I will be back next weekend!