Pre-Mag Mock Draftl

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 8:12 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

bjoak, not saying he's not a player, just seems to me he goes 5-10 spots higher than he should each season. Maybe its just me.

Last year I got railed on the MB for suggesting that Jason Bay was not a good late 1st/early 2nd selection (his actual '06 stats said he was worth a middle of the 3rd rd pick). I guess Grady is my '07 Jason Bay ... but I may again be in the minority. Saying his difference is 5-10 spots is silly because almost every player after the mid-first round goes five spots away from his worth. That's not even compred to how they finish; that's comparing ADP to average projected value. Why? Because most people place different valuations on the five stat groups or, worse, glance at a players five stats and estimate.

Sizemore is a good example. Comparing how he actually finished to my projected values of all the other players in 2006, he was the 15th most valuable hitter in last year's draft (5-10 places or more from where he was drafted). So he doesn't always go too early. Last year he went too late, and he would even after adjusting for position and league-wide offensive increases (which I did not).

For some reason you can't see that. You are probably underestimating his value in runs or stolen bases or just discounting the fact that he adds value in every category while not detracting from any.

Abreu, though not as good a player as Sizemore, was kind of the same deal. I suppose that if players don't have a home run, average, or sb total that jumps out at you some folks discount them.

Now, if we could just get JEagle going here. [/QUOTE]bjoak, you sound a little angry ... is Grady your brother-in-law or something? I don't know why you would think it is "silly" to say that I would take 5 or 10 other guys before Grady. I mean, we can disagree on player value can't we?

as for taking into account all the categories, I actually use a very detailed valuation model. He was #24 on my model based on 2006 results. If you have him at #15, my guess would be that you're overvaluing SBs and/or undervaluing BA relative to me. Abreu I had at #29.

[ November 08, 2006, 02:17 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 9:31 am

Not angry. My model is perfect in terms of valuation if using last year's projections and 2005's NFBC results. Adding pitchers, 3 year NFBC results, and/or 2006 real stats would have you more updated and accurate than me.

But, uh, #24 is exactly where he was taken this year and I don't know that his ADP last year was any higher so I don't see how he "always goes 5-10 spots higher than he should."

My point exactly is that it's no big deal to have him 5 positions later. If you have any kind of mathematical, objective valuation model (even if it's incorrect), you already know that there is not a linear relationship between ADP and projections. Everyone is 5-10 positions higher or lower so there's no reason to make a big deal about one specific guy.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 9:55 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Not angry. My model is perfect in terms of valuation if using last year's projections and 2005's NFBC results. Adding pitchers, 3 year NFBC results, and/or 2006 real stats would have you more updated and accurate than me.

But, uh, #24 is exactly where he was taken this year and I don't know that his ADP last year was any higher so I don't see how he "always goes 5-10 spots higher than he should."

My point exactly is that it's no big deal to have him 5 positions later. Everyone is 5-10 positions higher or lower so there's no reason to make a big deal about one specific guy. Wasn't a big deal, just a point of view. Not sure what his ADP was, I recall him going around the first turn in several drafts which seemed early given more proven guys. I just sense Sizemore-love from a lot of fantasy players, a guy that draws oohs and aahs from the crowd when he's drafted; I don't get it. But you're right, his selection here probably wasn't that far off - maybe it was the exclamation point that got me!

If you have any kind of mathematical, objective valuation model (even if it's incorrect), you already know that there is not a linear relationship between ADP and projections.

Well, everyone's projections are different anyway, so I don't know how you could judge this unless you are assuming last year's value or some stat service as a consensus. But I would say if there was a consensus projected value that range would be much tighter in the first couple of rounds.

[ November 08, 2006, 04:04 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 12:01 pm

I'm going to move this party to another thread in an effort to get this one back on track. Those who are interested in my self-righteous know-it-allness should run not walk to read it.

Meantime, JEagle has been up for about 24 hours and I sent him a message about 12 hours ago, so he seems like a flake and hopefully there is someone out there who will take over for him. If you're reading this and not already playing please do us a favor and make the 2-10 selection.

Round 1

1-1 Doughboys-Albert Pujols

1-2 Vander-Alex Rodriguez

1-3 Edward Kings-Jose Reyes

1-4 Dak-Alfonso Soriano

1-5 Chest Rockwell-Ryan Howard

1-6 JEagle-Carl Crawford

1-7 Spyhunter-Johan Santana

1-8 bjoak-Vladimir Guerrero

1-9 Tradesman Kettleers-Chase Utley

1-10 KJ Duke-Carlos Beltran

1-11 Raw Talent-David Wright

1-12 BEF-Bobby Abreu

1-13 Kimo-David Ortiz

1-14 Mr. Dalrae-Ichiro Suzuki

1-15 Don Mathis-Manny Ramirez

2-1 Don Mathis-Mark Teixiera

2-2 Mr. Dalrae-Travis Hafner

2-3 Kimo-Miguel Cabrera

2-4 BEF?-Lance Berkman

2-5 Raw Talent-Derek Jeter

2-6 KJ Duke-Carlos Lee

2-7 Tradesman Kettleers-Derek Lee

2-8 bjoak-Jimmy Rollins

2-9 Spyhunter-Grady Sizemore

2-10 JEagle-

2-11 Chest Rockwell-

2-12 Dak-

2-13 Edward Kings-

2-14 Vander-

2-15 Doughboys-

[ November 08, 2006, 06:02 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

BEF · Post by **BEF** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 7:16 pm

Hey guys, sorry about missing my last pick; I was on vacation with no internet for a few days. Thanks for making the Berkman pick for me, that was a great selection.

BEF

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 8:14 pm

I can take over for JEagle...

2:10 Matt Holliday

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:00 am

Jason Bay

BEF · Post by **BEF** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 4:22 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Dak:

[qb] He probably got upset over Chesty's jab at the Abreu selection. He does rub people the wrong way sometimes. Yes, I contacted Chest privately regarding his comment. I think his non-apologetic "dude, I was just kidding" and patronizing "I'm just trying to help you out" attitude would in fact fall under the category of Wrong Way Rubbing...

Dak · Post by **Dak** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:08 am

2-12 M Young ss

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:16 am

Originally posted by BEF:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Dak:

[qb] He probably got upset over Chesty's jab at the Abreu selection. He does rub people the wrong way sometimes. Yes, I contacted Chest privately regarding his comment. I think his non-apologetic "dude, I was just kidding" and patronizing "I'm just trying to help you out" attitude would in fact fall under the category of Wrong Way Rubbing... [/QUOTE]Lighten up Grandpa- make your picks on time or the abuse gets worse!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:46 am

So many choices, so few picks....

2-13 Vernon Wells

BEF · Post by **BEF** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:02 am

[/qb][/QUOTE]Lighten up Grandpa- make your picks on time or the abuse gets worse! [/QB][/quote]

Listen up, you little whippersnapper, show some respect for your elders or I'll take out my teeth, clamp them on your bee-hind and then whomp you with my cane.

Young 'uns today think they know all the answers...

(note the proper use of a graemlin when intending to kid someone, you obnoxious jerk...)

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:29 am

Originally posted by BEF:

Lighten up Grandpa- make your picks on time or the abuse gets worse! [/QB][/quote]

Listen up, you little whippersnapper, show some respect for your elders or I'll take out my teeth, clamp them on your bee-hind and then whomp you with my cane.

Young 'uns today think they know all the answers...

(note the proper use of a graemlin when intending to kid someone, you obnoxious jerk...) [/QB][/quote]

It's 2:30 on the East coast do you not have something better to do than argue with me, I am sure you have dinner plans in the next hour or so. Enjoy- hurry back there is a rerun of Golden Girls on at 4:30pm. Even Bea Arthur knows Abreu is not a wise pick at 12.

See that is how you give someone a hard time without calling them nasty names... my feelings were hurt.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:52 am

I heard Bea Arthur came in 5th in Tampa 2 this past season.

Round 1

1-1 Doughboys-Albert Pujols

1-2 Vander-Alex Rodriguez

1-3 Edward Kings-Jose Reyes

1-4 Dak-Alfonso Soriano

1-5 Chest Rockwell-Ryan Howard

1-6 JEagle-Carl Crawford

1-7 Spyhunter-Johan Santana

1-8 bjoak-Vladimir Guerrero

1-9 Tradesman Kettleers-Chase Utley

1-10 KJ Duke-Carlos Beltran

1-11 Raw Talent-David Wright

1-12 BEF-Bobby Abreu

1-13 Kimo-David Ortiz

1-14 Mr. Dalrae-Ichiro Suzuki

1-15 Don Mathis-Manny Ramirez

2-1 Don Mathis-Mark Teixiera

2-2 Mr. Dalrae-Travis Hafner

2-3 Kimo-Miguel Cabrera

2-4 BEF?-Lance Berkman

2-5 Raw Talent-Derek Jeter

2-6 KJ Duke-Carlos Lee

2-7 Tradesman Kettleers-Derek Lee

2-8 bjoak-Jimmy Rollins

2-9 Spyhunter-Grady Sizemore

2-10 God Loves You-Matt Holliday

2-11 Chest Rockwell-Jason Bay

2-12 Dak-Michael Young

2-13 Edward Kings-Vernon Wells

2-14 Vander-

2-15 Doughboys-

[ November 09, 2006, 02:03 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

BEF · Post by **BEF** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:09 am

[/QB][/QUOTE]It's 2:30 on the East coast do you not have something better to do than argue with me, I am sure you have dinner plans in the next hour or so. Enjoy- hurry back there is a rerun of Golden Girls on at 4:30pm. Even Bea Arthur knows Abreu is not a wise pick at 12.

See that is how you give someone a hard time without calling them nasty names... my feelings were hurt. [/QB][/quote]

OK, I give up. It's obvious that I'm feeble and addle-brained and there's just no way that I'll be able to keep up the snappy repartee when I'm so horribly overmatched by The Great Chest.

See you in September when Abreu closes in on 30/30...

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:50 am

Originally posted by BEF:

It's 2:30 on the East coast do you not have something better to do than argue with me, I am sure you have dinner plans in the next hour or so. Enjoy- hurry back there is a rerun of Golden Girls on at 4:30pm. Even Bea Arthur knows Abreu is not a wise pick at 12.

See that is how you give someone a hard time without calling them nasty names... my feelings were hurt. [/QB][/quote]

OK, I give up. It's obvious that I'm feeble and addle-brained and there's just no way that I'll be able to keep up the snappy repartee when I'm so horribly overmatched by The Great Chest.

See you in September when Abreu closes in on 30/30... [/QB][/quote]

You seem like a nice man except your venom towards sweet innocent me I wish you well- I hope that if you invest a first round pick in him you get those kinds of numbers. I will be the first to tell you I was wrong on him if you do...

[ November 09, 2006, 02:51 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:57 am

Not to be a nay-sayer, but Abreu going 30/30 would certainly be quite a turn around. Anything can happen in baseball, but one thing a majority of power hitters (i.e. 30+ HR in a season) have generally in common is they hit a lot of fly balls (as opposed to Ground Balls and Line Drives). Of the players who hit 30+ in 2006 (there were 34), not one hit fewer fly balls than Abreu. Of the players who hit 20+ HR in 2006 (there were 91), only one had 400+ AB and hit fewer fly balls.

Not to mention a 25% strike out rate for Abreu (his BA is propped up by hitting a lot of LD's). To get 30 HR, Abreu will certainly be swimming up stream from some of his natural tendencies. Bit of a gamble for sure.

[ November 09, 2006, 02:58 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:01 am

I've never had him before and I'm not a fan but he sets up my next pick better than the other choices, so I'll take Damon. Considered H. Ramirez, but he just scares me too much.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:03 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Not to be a nay-sayer, but Abreu going 30/30 would certainly be quite a turn around. Anything can happen in baseball, but one thing a majority of power hitters (i.e. 30+ HR in a season) have generally in common is they hit a lot of fly balls (as opposed to Ground Balls and Line Drives). Of the players who hit 30+ in 2006 (there were 34), not one hit fewer fly balls than Abreu. Of the players who hit 20+ HR in 2006 (there were 91), only one had 400+ AB and hit fewer fly balls.

Not to mention a 25% strike out rate for Abreu (his BA is propped up by hitting a lot of LD's). To get 30 HR, Abreu will certainly be swimming up stream from some of his natural tendencies. Bit of a gamble for sure. How stable have his FB and LD ratios been, and how did they look when he was hitting more HRs?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:16 am

I don't have those numbers with me. Sorry.

I guess it would also be important to note that he has hit 30 or more twice (30 in '04 and 31 in '01) and that he will be 33 years old once the season starts. There are exceptions of course, but 33 generally not a time in a players life when they exhibit increased power trends.

BEF · Post by **BEF** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:00 am

I think a full year in a lineup as packed as the Yanks, with a short right field porch, leads to one last monster season.

Last year in Philly his GB/FB Ratio was a ridiculously high 1.86. After his trade to the Yanks it plummeted to 0.88, and he hit 7 dingers in just over 200 AB's. Even so, all of you are probably right, 30 might be a stretch.

But consider this for a minute:

Player A: .301/30/105/118/40

Player B: .306/32/101/110/21

Pretty similar except for SB's.

Player A was Abreu in 2004. I'm not saying Abreu will hit 30 dingers again, but if he hits 25 and increases his Runs and RBI to 120 each, and steals 30, then he is certainly equal (if not superior, depending on SB's) to Player B.

Player B? That's Jason Bay in 2005, and the following year his ADP hovered right around pick #12, if I'm not mistaken.

I understand that Bay is on his way up and Abreu is on the downside, but I do believe that the Abreu we saw in August/September after the trade will be the guy that provides those numbers over the course of a full season. And as much as I really don't like the Yankees, he will be hitting right in the middle of an amazing lineup. So I'll stand by the pick as I think that .290/25/120/120/30 is in fact worthy of #12.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:00 am

Originally posted by Vander:

I've never had him before and I'm not a fan but he sets up my next pick better than the other choices, so I'll take Damon. Considered H. Ramirez, but he just scares me too much. I find the way you say this interesting- because I can almost picture those thoughts going through my head too as I would be announcing him at that pick. Damon may not be the sexiest pick out there but there is a lot of consistency there and some 5 category help. His nay sayers will say he will not run that much again or his 20 homerun days are few or limited, but to me he is a guy I want on my team any time. Pick 29 might be a tad bit early for my taste but certainly a legit 3rd round guy in 07 IMO.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:21 am

I had others listed higher than Damon, but I can get hr's from several differant guys with my next pick. No matter who Doughbys takes he can only take 2 and there are more than 2 I'd be happy with. The other sb guys were H. Ramirez or Furcal and I like Damon slightly better realizing either could be better choices ultimately. I've down graded Pierre and Figgens to later 3rd round guys. There seems to be enough speed this year that you don't have to reach for them like last year. H. Ramirez was wonderful in 2006, but I could easily see him hit 260 with 10 hr's less runs scored and fewr sb's. still would be good, but not as good. He could also improve or just be the same which would put him in Reyes/Crawford territory. I do fear the softmore jinx with him though. Just mho. Let the critics tear it apart.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:46 am

2-15 Dye

3-1 H. Ramirez

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:04 am

I liked Dye and had him rated over Damon, but that's ok, I'll take Morneau who I had rated over Damon also. How many picks will be made in this Mock. Not rying to end it just wondering. I'll do 30 if there is an inclination to go that many.