Mock Draft #2

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 6:41 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Now Wright before Rollins is an interesting debate IMO.

As well as Reyes-Rollins [/QUOTE]Wright-Rollins was a virtual dead heat in '07 value. Both are consistent yr/yr, and will play for strong offensive teams again in '08. Rollins gets the edge being a SS but could be more likely to regress, so it's probably a toss-up.

Pujols, I agree Dough, belongs below both of them and possibly Holliday as well.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:01 am

I found the Pujols posts very intersting. I too have Pujols rated 7th. Right behind Holiday as well as Wright, Rollins, and Reyes. No offense to Pujols at all and if he falls to me picking 7th or later fine, but for the reasons Dan stated better than I could. I'll take Wright in a heartbeat.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:03 am

So if the first round is about risk management as much as anything else (i.e. you cannot win the NFBC in the first round but you can sure lose it), and you have a group of pheonominal players who rely very much on speed (which can be adversly impacted by even a mild strain) to differentiate them from most of the players you could pick in the second round, and you have a player who has a seven year MLB history and will STILL be only 28 next year whose WORST year was 99/32/103/.327 and who averaged 130/45/125/.338 in 575+ AB per season over the previous four seasons, why again would you pass Pujols?

Just my humble opinion, but if someone does get him at 5-6-7, it is a gift.

It is good, however, that for the first time in a long time we have more than a usual "Top 2" consensus picks.

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:16 am

Greetings from a rookie. I would like to jump into the draft, if that is okay with everyone. I have already signed up for Vegas, and I am excited to put my "rookie" skills to the test!

At #14- I will take M. Cabrera (3b)

Look forward to meeting some of you in Vegas and on the boards- Neal Moses

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:20 am

anyone can get hurt. pulhos has played hurt a lot. he is a great player but the lineup, steals and overall health of wright gives him a big edge. put it this way- if wright regresses and albert progresses- they will be even. albert needs to go 2 for 2. both great players. i like wright more

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:30 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

Greetings from a rookie. I would like to jump into the draft, if that is okay with everyone. I have already signed up for Vegas, and I am excited to put my "rookie" skills to the test!

At #14- I will take M. Cabrera (3b)

Look forward to meeting some of you in Vegas and on the boards- Neal Moses welcome Neal

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:33 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Why again would you pass Pujols?

Because we are playing the 2008 version, not the 2002-06 game.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 9:15 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

Greetings from a rookie. I would like to jump into the draft, if that is okay with everyone. I have already signed up for Vegas, and I am excited to put my "rookie" skills to the test!

At #14- I will take M. Cabrera (3b)

Look forward to meeting some of you in Vegas and on the boards- Neal Moses COOL!!! Glad you decided to join, Neal. I was hoping you would draft in Orlando so I could meet you, but I'm sure you'll have more fun in Vegas. By your showing in "The Big Game" I'm guessing you will do very well in Vegas, regardless of what league you are placed.

I'll PM you sometime this weekend.

Dickie V · Post by **Dickie V** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 10:06 am

if no one else wants it or has called it , i'll grab that last piece of pizza----R Braun and P Fielder

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 10:22 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

So if the first round is about risk management as much as anything else (i.e. you cannot win the NFBC in the first round but you can sure lose it), and you have a group of pheonominal players who rely very much on speed (which can be adversly impacted by even a mild strain) to differentiate them from most of the players you could pick in the second round, and you have a player who has a seven year MLB history and will STILL be only 28 next year whose WORST year was 99/32/103/.327 and who averaged 130/45/125/.338 in 575+ AB per season over the previous four seasons, why again would you pass Pujols?

Just my humble opinion, but if someone does get him at 5-6-7, it is a gift.

It is good, however, that for the first time in a long time we have more than a usual "Top 2" consensus picks. Not a knock on Albert and he does get bookoo points for reliability, but as dan said again it's next year not last year. STL made a big mistake dumping Jockety imho. He was one of the best gm's around. I have little confidence they can surround Albert with adequit protection and table setters. He also doesn't steal much. wright continues to improve and steal. Another stellar year helps his reliability factor also and he will bat 3rd this year, not 5th as last year started out. This gets him more ab's as well as better protection then he would get 5th. It will get him over the 100 R's he was missing. Who would you rather have hitting behind you Beltran or who's the cleanup guy in STL? Larussa likes to hit Duncan or Ankiel 2nd. A mystery to me why. Same as Guillen wantint to bat Uribe 2nd. And who would you rather have leading off Reyes or wait a minute Eckstein's a free agent I think, so who knows. Maybe Larussa can bat Duncan lead off and Ankiel 2nd or maybe the pitcher could figure in somehow cause he has a computer model somewhere that says it will help. maybe if his pitcher every day is Owings. See if the new GM can trade for him. As you may have already inferred I don't like Larussa much. Sorry to ramble. I'm not trying to give you a hard time. Just would take Wright over Pujols right now. BTW welcome Neal.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:38 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

thanks doughboys- i can now move my #1 kds from 6 to 5. can't really believe you think reyes will be standing on second more than eckstein when wright/pulhos come up- or that beltran delgado protect more than ankiel or duncan- but like i said- i keep seeing your team up there. No problem, when Shandler comes out with his stuff, this will all be forgotten!

PS-Last year was his worst for the forecaster in my opinion. Furcal second and Barrett fourth at their positions were the biggest misses.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 12:03 pm

Dan I recieved the "Forecaster" at last years draft and looked at it only afterward. While it may have some worthwhile stuff in there, I'm still not overly impressed. I couldn't believe the Furcal ranking. You obviously didn't fall for this. Why do you revere Shandler so much? Or do you? Baseball is a stat sport. That's what makes it so great for Fantasy. He has over stated it though. Completly removed the art and misses much in his unbalanced only by the #'s approach. Just my humble opinion from someone that doesn't earn their living from selling advice.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 12:06 pm

I would put the same question to Shawn if your inclined to answer. If you don't I'll understand. One can't give away too much and stay ahead of the compitition.

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 12:37 pm

I like to look at most stat books as I am a Geek. I miss the Baseball Abstract and Bensons Future Stars. I think most have some good and bad points. I have done my projecting dozens of ways over the years - from averaging a large group of sources to doing them 100% on my own. I have ordered my 2008 forcaster and will refer to it often as it gives me an easy place to find things like batting average of balls in play for the past few years. Lets look at Lowell as one example: a sub .300 BABIP player for every extended period including the first half of 2007 then something like .385 in the second half. The forecaster gives me all that and another opinion, which isn't intentional misinformation like Gordon Gekko, to use when making my projections.

I have made a point to really study what Shawns says as I have found that his articles have been not full of misinformation. I find this refreshing.

[ October 26, 2007, 06:57 PM: Message edited by: Sheep ]

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:17 pm

1 A Rodriguez (KJ Duke)

2 H Ramirez (Vander)

3 J Reyes (Sheep)

4 D Wright (God loves you)

5 A Pujols (DAK)

6 J Rollins (headhunters)

7 C Utley (Chester Rockwell)

8 M Holliday (EliGrimmett)

9 A Soriano (Doughboys)

10 R Howard (Brilee’s Brigade)

11 G Sizemore (Hard Heads)

12 C. Crawford (Berkshire Juggernauts)

13 J. Santana (Edward Kings)

14 M. Cabrera (Asumijet)

15 P. Fielder (Dickie V)

2.1 R. Braun (Dickie V)

2.2 J. Peavy (Asumijet)

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

A little too early for Peavy, maybe yes. I just think this time next year, we will picking him 7th or 8th overall, in the Santana range, based on the upcoming 2008 campaign. And I know he won't be here 27 picks from now.

Thanks for all the welcomes... Neal

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:33 pm

I've never met him or conversed through email, but his (Shawn's) remarkable consistent success is hard not to notice. Not just in the main event, but also in the ultimate leagues. If Shandler had this kind of success I'd listen more to him also. I don't want to hear any more about how many championships he's won against his peers. Meaningless to me. As Dan had insinuated, and I too mean no disrespect. Writers as a whole, aren't very good baseball people. Even the ones that follow the game on a daily basis. As Dan also said many will annoint Pujols as no worse than the #2 pick and if he has a great season and proves them right god bless, but he isn't there in my book and I pretty much try to ignore what they say with a few exceptions. I come up with this stuff myself and with a few people I really enjoy talking baseball with. I don't know if you follow stocks, but it's like listening to Jim Cramer. He's so bad and does such a diservice to the unknowledgable investor. he's almost a contrary indicator. Merril Lynch has been used (at least by me) as a contrary indicator for many years. With great siccess. Now if I make money doing the opposite of what they recommend. How are their clients doing if they don't know how bad they are? Sorry again for the ramble and soap box oritory. Especially sorry if I offended anyone. Just saying how I see it.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:36 pm

Excuse for rambling, I've taken a page from Sportsbettingmans book and started celebrating Friday night with some spirits. (not the Halloween kind)

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:45 pm

C. Beltran, OF, NYM.

On Pujols, I will buy the line-up protection issues, but only so far. The guy is the best pure hitter of the age. He is 28 and has a long, proven track record. I understand the reason others are being considered so high and whomever picks the Reyes/Rameriez/Wright has a damn good start to their teams, but Pujols is an anchor in three of the counting stats as well as BA. Picking him first is not a mistake...getting him sixth is a gift.

On Shandler, his primary goal and service is to provide statisical baselines and basis for understanding who is producing based on proven underlying skills as opposed to luck. Baseball is a sport that can provide enough empirical data to make the exercise worth it. It does not work all the time and he has never claimed that it did. To each his/her own. I will continue to use him.

All do respect to all my other friends who are in the "business", but I have found his website to be bang-on and the most enjoyable.

Berkshire Juggernauts · Post by **Berkshire Juggernauts** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:57 pm

David Ortiz UTL

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 3:04 pm

Power/speed combo again and hope he's no fluke.

Brandon Phillips-Cin

Brilee's Brigade · Post by **Brilee's Brigade** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 3:50 pm

Carlos Lee OF Hou

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:53 pm

Originally posted by Sheep:

The forecaster gives me all that and another opinion, which isn't intentional misinformation like Gordon Gekko, to use when making my projections.

if you think i give misinformation, just believe the opposite

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:54 pm

Originally posted by Asumijet:

2.2 J. Peavy (Asumijet)

A little too early for Peavy, maybe yes. I just think this time next year, we will picking him 7th or 8th overall, in the Santana range, based on the upcoming 2008 campaign. early...yes

santana adp in 2008...no

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Oct 27, 2007 2:09 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

1 A Rodriguez (KJ Duke)

2 H Ramirez (Vander)

3 J Reyes (Sheep)

4 D Wright (God loves you)

5 A Pujols (DAK)

6 J Rollins (headhunters)

7 C Utley (Chester Rockwell)

8 M Holliday (EliGrimmett)

9 A Soriano (Doughboys)

10 R Howard (Brilee’s Brigade)

11 G Sizemore (Hard Heads)

12 C. Crawford (Berkshire Juggernauts)

13 J. Santana (Edward Kings)

14 M. Cabrera (Asumijet)

15 P. Fielder (Dickie V)

2.1 R. Braun (Dickie V)

2.2 J. Peavy (Asumijet)

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

A little too early for Peavy, maybe yes. I just think this time next year, we will picking him 7th or 8th overall, in the Santana range, based on the upcoming 2008 campaign. And I know he won't be here 27 picks from now.

Thanks for all the welcomes... Neal Neal I always assume a newbie comes here for feedback from guys who have played before. IMO 90% of main event drafts Peavy will go mid 2nd round. I cannot see him ever going 7th or 8th. Especially considering that the same 7 guys in different orders will go in the top 8 picks of 90% of the drafts. And to what Gordon says that is also not the Santana range in 08. A lot of debate on this one going on right now the consensus at this point is Johan between picks 13 and 17.

[ October 27, 2007, 08:11 AM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Sat Oct 27, 2007 4:14 am

Just to make sure my point was articulate (I am not sure it was)... Peavy was better than Santana in 2007. Peavy will be better than Santana in 2008 (provided Santana stays in MN). Therefore, in 2009, Peavy will go in the range of Santana in 2007 (ADP #8). Thus, if one thinks his performance will be 2006 Santana-esq, that he will clearly separate himself from the field, then one may need to reach early for him. Santana's high draft position was based on two consecutive, dominate seasons. That and I was trying to change the subject away from the Pujols discussion. If I am drafting 6th or 7th and can get Pujols (like this year's champion, Terry, got Arod at #7), I am laughing all the way to the bank.

And yes, I jumped in the mock draft for the feedback, but more importantly to meet some of you. Thanks- Neal