Jeopardy Question!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 12:16 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

You do not come across as a guy who makes a lot of excuses, injuries happen. I know I had a few that were hard to take too.

I think you should request essays from reps of the 4 cities and considering who ever has the best that is where you go. Or you could just go to New York and save a grand. Bjoak would say that is because you cannot afford to play with the big boys? I would say it makes fiscal sense- I know that is why I am driving 200 miles rather than New York or Vegas.

Which begs 2 questions? bjoak are you one of the big boys? I am extending an invite to both of you to play me in the 100 league on Feb 21. Bjoak seems to be ducking me- I know Gordon will not.

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

maybe I want you in Tampa because I think you will draft this year's Foulke and Thome. Mabye a combination of the 2. don't forget about drafting loretta, eaton, and b.lyon as well. all of those injuries prevented me from taking home some serious cash. [/QUOTE][/QUOTE]Injuries do happen, especially if you're counting on Nevin and Benitez.

I hope you are not applying to be an nfbc rep. I feel sorry for Gekko if he'll have to read your essay (and it's hard to feel sorry for Gekko).

If I play in a satellite league it will be the Feb. 21 $100, but like Gekko, between the nfbc and my own league (not to mention all my non-fantasy related responsibilities) I don't want to spread myself too thin.

Or, to look at it another way, it's not so much that I'm ducking you as I'm ducking having to read your messages on the league message board all season long.

[ January 11, 2006, 06:19 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 12:36 pm

, especially if you're counting on Nevin and Benitez.

Or, to look at it another way, it's not so much that I'm ducking you as I'm ducking having to read your messages on the league message board all season long. [/QB][/quote]

I promise to not make fun of you for being slow, it will actually help me and 13 others in this case.

As far as Benitez I already conceded that point. I learn from my mistakes, do you? will you crack the top 250 in batting avg this year and not draft a very late 2nd rounder or early 3rd rounder in the middle of the first round?

We will find out- hope to see you on the 21st.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 12:39 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Gekko, I rarely engage in these kind of posts, BUT GMAFB - when you win you can take the money and the congratulations - when you lose, skip the excuses and move along for the next season.GMAFB, don't read my posts. someone ELSE brought up foulke and thome, not me. i can see you sitting in front of your computer typing as fast as you can to try and "get me". won't work. you need to read the entire thread and see who said what. you see excuses, i see reasons why i didn't win. now sac up and quit being a MB baby!

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

But as a footnote, Foulke was injured before the draft last year and that was pretty well known - unless they don't deliver papers in your burg and you couldn't find any baseball websites - maybe you were already knee deep in the Holmes/Johnson tandem strategy threads............. so any player that was injured before the draft shouldn't have been drafted? that rules out many many players. give me a break. how bout you win an event, and put me in my place? maybe they didn't teach strategy in your them there neck of the woods. see how it works?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 12:48 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

As far as Benitez I already conceded that point. I learn from my mistakes, do you? Hey, I conceded Sheets but that doesn't stop you. As far as learning, I didn't take him in the mock draft yet, did I?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 12:48 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Is this a joke? Where did you draft Lyon? A bet every owner replaced at least 8 players from their draft. I didn't pick Loretta you did. What round did you get him in? What did you lose? His career best was 16 hr's, he hit .335 the year before best ever. He only scored over 90 runs twice in his carrer. You could have got Polanco in 20 or so round similar player. As for Eaton, do you want me to give you 10 players that you could have replaced him with. if those three players are stiffs and coulda been replaced with reserves/FAAB, please prove it to us and not draft anyone on draft day for your last three draft picks. if you don't, then your words will be the joke.

use your other reserves and FAAB to pick up the quality players. those were your words, not mine. monday morning QB'ing is easy to do. if i wanted to pick apart your roster, i could do so as well. [/QUOTE]I wasn't picking apart your roster. You put those players out there. What do you think I missing out on my last three picks? You are the one saying you are going to be the first to win a million dollars. I was just saying those three player aren't the reason you didn't win. We all have injuries. There isn't one impact player on that list of three players.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 1:02 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

There isn't one impact player on that list of three players. they were counted on to be valuable assets, otherwise, why draft them? didn't you take garciapoopoo in the 2nd? he's more of an injury threat than thome!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 1:05 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Are you kidding me? Brandon Lyon!! Loretta!! Eaton!! Reserve or FAAB, 7th or later, 15th round maybe.....You can find replacements for these stiffs. Loretta 8.10

Eaton 15.6

Lyon 30.10

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 1:14 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

There isn't one impact player on that list of three players. they were counted on to be valuable assets, otherwise, why draft them? didn't you take garciapoopoo in the 2nd? he's more of an injury threat than thome! [/QUOTE]I'm not complaining about losing Nomar. It was a bad pick. I looked back at it. If I would have grabbed M. Young or a 3rd baseman(a position I had a stiff at all year). If the future, I need to draft better. I took a risky player with my second pick. I also replaced Nomar with Polanco, Weeks and Hudson. No one of them a hero, but servicable. I also lost John Thompson. Did he kill me? Is he better than Eaton? I'm sure I had plenty of picks I wish I could do again. The bottom line is there are a lot of player that about the same. You need your share of them. The difference from winning in losing is how many key impact players you get. If you get more than most in that department, you will win more often than not.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 1:24 pm

Very well said, there is a reason why you always do well. I look forward to competing against you in Greg's champs league. Hopefully we can survive the Soriano pick- if he gets moved I would feel much better about it.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

There isn't one impact player on that list of three players. they were counted on to be valuable assets, otherwise, why draft them? didn't you take garciapoopoo in the 2nd? he's more of an injury threat than thome! [/QUOTE]I'm not complaining about losing Nomar. It was a bad pick. I looked back at it. If I would have grabbed M. Young or a 3rd baseman(a position I had a stiff at all year). If the future, I need to draft better. I took a risky player with my second pick. I also replaced Nomar with Polanco, Weeks and Hudson. No one of them a hero, but servicable. I also lost John Thompson. Did he kill me? Is he better than Eaton? I'm sure I had plenty of picks I wish I could do again. The bottom line is there are a lot of player that about the same. You need your share of them. The difference from winning in losing is how many key impact players you get. If you get more than most in that department, you will win more often than not. [/QUOTE]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 2:48 pm

CC i too agree with you, nomar came with risk.

In the ultimate i took 32 year old jason schimdt over the young power hitting TEIXEIRA.I look back now , and should have taken the young stud.

SCHIMDT also has had arm promblems, in the early rounds be safe.Look at BONDS, NOMAR, SCHILLING,THOME, JOHNSON,BOONE, GUYS in their 30's. I had boone in 3 leagues , he killed me.

Could of had figgins or utley.

Guys like BELTRE , BELTRAN,OLIVER PEREZ. What happend here , young guns who dissapointed.

I learn something every year , be safe.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 2:10 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Is this a joke? Where did you draft Lyon? A bet every owner replaced at least 8 players from their draft. I didn't pick Loretta you did. What round did you get him in? What did you lose? His career best was 16 hr's, he hit .335 the year before best ever. He only scored over 90 runs twice in his carrer. You could have got Polanco in 20 or so round similar player. As for Eaton, do you want me to give you 10 players that you could have replaced him with. if those three players are stiffs and coulda been replaced with reserves/FAAB, please prove it to us and not draft anyone on draft day for your last three draft picks. if you don't, then your words will be the joke.

use your other reserves and FAAB to pick up the quality players. those were your words, not mine. monday morning QB'ing is easy to do. if i wanted to pick apart your roster, i could do so as well. [/QUOTE]Ok Gordon, I think you took the word stiff the wrong way. I'm using it as a player who didn't perform up to expectations. A player who was a negative not a positive.

I'm not one to back off a challenge. I been thinking about not picking the last three draft picks. Here's what I purpose. As I'm not willing to sacrifice my main event entry, I willing to have someone who wanted to go Vegas to be a facilitator draft a team for me and not take any players in the last 4 rounds. But here is the catch, you being the next millioner in fantasy sports, I willing to bet a main event entry fee for 2007. It has to be a risk reward thing for me. It doesn't make sense to donate just to prove a point. Are you game?

[ January 12, 2006, 10:10 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 3:44 am

....some numbers.

If you played (activated) Loretta for every week of the season, instead of adding about 4 points (out of 75 Off. points) he would have lost you about 4, which is a net -8. Assuming Loretta missed 33% of the season and the stiff you replaced him with broke even or lost you -1, Loretta would have cost you 4 or 5 points (out of 75) relative to projections.

As for analyzing Moneymaker's choice to pick 2 Closers....if he didn't gain about 50 points from the FAAB/Picks 24-30 during the season, one could have said picking 2 closers that early was a mistake. But then again, his draft (rds 1-23)had a fair amount of disappointments (ie 1/3). However, 1/3 of his draft did extremely well. But it just goes to show you how valuable the FAAB is in this league.

Did you know someone in our league in the last 2 years has finished in the top 25 without drafting any closers/relief or picking them up during the season? There certainly is something to that strategy.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 4:44 am

Really? No closers or middle relievers? Only starters?

I certainly have heard of it done, but not so successfully. If you goal is to average 80% of the points, ditching saves means you have to get 59 out of 60 other available points to balance your staff. Pretty tough to do.

Most folks seem to pick or try to get at least two closers. Foregoing that, you would be able to pick up two more starters or two more bats. I am surprised that those two "extra" picks (say one early in the first ten picks and one in the middle rounds) would make up for the points foregone with closers. Risky, but I guess someone made it work.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:06 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

....some numbers.

If you played (activated) Loretta for every week of the season, instead of adding about 4 points (out of 75 Off. points) he would have lost you about 4, which is a net -8. Assuming Loretta missed 33% of the season and the stiff you replaced him with broke even or lost you -1, Loretta would have cost you 4 or 5 points (out of 75) relative to projections.

how many points do you lose by keeping 4 or 5 stiffs (players on the DL) on your reserve roster for let's say 3 months? please include the lsot points by not being able to stream pitchers and make other pickups. thanks.

[ January 12, 2006, 11:09 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:08 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I'm not one to back off a challenge. I been thinking about not picking the last three draft picks. Here's what I purpose. As I'm not willing to sacrifice my main event entry, I willing to have someone who wanted to go Vegas to be a facilitator draft a team for me and not take any players in the last 4 rounds. But here is the catch, you being the next millioner in fantasy sports, I willing to bet a main event entry fee for 2007. It has to be a risk reward thing for me. It doesn't make sense to donate just to prove a point. Are you game? you said my three stiffs could have been replaced via reserves and FAAB. if that's the case, why even draft the players (stiffs)? if you meant what you said, you shouldn't draft three picks on draft day and then you can fill them with FA.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:10 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Really? No closers or middle relievers? Only starters?

I certainly have heard of it done, but not so successfully. If you goal is to average 80% of the points, ditching saves means you have to get 59 out of 60 other available points to balance your staff. Pretty tough to do.

Most folks seem to pick or try to get at least two closers. Foregoing that, you would be able to pick up two more starters or two more bats. I am surprised that those two "extra" picks (say one early in the first ten picks and one in the middle rounds) would make up for the points foregone with closers. Risky, but I guess someone made it work. It's actually quite amazing what kind of work this guy did in order to get as far as he did. Injuries alone whiped out his projected Pitching stats (using avg of 6 publications), then another 27 points of underperformance from those whom didn't get injured, yet somehow he picked up 70 points in FAAB (or spot starting) to net him just under 50 Pitching points. A pitcher in the 28th would have accounted for about 5 of the 70 points, so about 65 was from FAAB. INSANE!

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:14 am

[/qb][/QUOTE]how many points do you lose by keeping 4 or 5 stiffs (players on the DL) on your reserve roster for let's say 3 months? please include the lsot points by not being able to stream pitchers and make other pickups. thanks. [/QB][/quote]

Gekko, I don't get that deep into what changes managers made. All I can tell you is what a players projected value was and what his reuslt was. You can adjust the difference my playing with how much time he was out. As for the replacement value, it all depend on who the player was. But keep in mind, I can't tell you what Joe Bench did between Aug-Sept. Too much work. Give me you team (I forget the name), I can approximate what you lost in injuries and how you did in FAAB (which may include picks 24-30).

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:19 am

Edward,

One quailifcation for those stats I threw up there. If a manager is quite good at spot starting, the underperformance of drafted pitchers would arguably be less (say than the 27 points mentioned above), thus the same difference from FAAB points. Unfortunately, I'm not going to spend the time to analyze to that level in order to perfect my estimations. These stats just give me a general idea on the make up of each manager and their startegies. If I am ever in their same league, they could be of some minimal benefit.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 6:31 am

Understood. I know the concept of "luck" is much diminished in the eyes of assembled brotherhood (and sisterhood to be pc), but it must be considered. Say you spot started from your reserves of two or three starters. That is a finite population from which to pick your "best" matchups. We all know this as we all also do it every week.

The only advantage that strategy would be the liberal use of the FA pool to select otherwise questionable starters with "potentially" favorable situations. I say potentially because we have all performed the analysis of "should I start the up and down pitcher this week because he is pitching against Eddie Gaedel in a ballpark roughly the equivalent of Dante's Third Circle of Hell for hitters" only to have them get lit up like a gas can. Of course, the pitcher you sat down because their road stats suck and they were on the road against the Rockies or ChiSox went 8 innings of shut-out ball with 10 k's and no walks!

I full well recognize that many are better at this than me, but I did not just fall off the turnip truck and can ususally give good account for myself in such analysis. So I would normally chalk success in such a stategy on a season-long basis to being good luck, especially if they are successful early in the year.

Doing it twice? Well, I can only take my hat off to that person and ponder whether or not trying it three years in a row is like letting it ride on a craps table....one throw too many and you are left holding onto your....self!

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 6:32 am

Gekko, looks like you lost 13 and 6 points respectively from Batting and Pitching projections due to injuries (lost playing time). Hitting outperformed projections by 8 and Pitching underperformed by 2 (when stripping out injury time), and gained 1 and 25 points from a combination of FAAB and Picks #24-30.

Your drafting also seems more predicatble than the average manager as you don't seem to venture far from the consensus view of players and you more than likley don't have a quantitative measure when summarizing players' values (ie your tilt is towards qualitative analysis rather than quantitative).

[ January 12, 2006, 03:31 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 8:58 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

Your drafting also seems more predicatble than the average manager as you don't seem to venture far from the consensus view of players

it sounds like you got the ice pipe going with that one. you are the first person who has ever said that.

Originally posted by nydownunder:

and you more than likley don't have a quantitative measure when summarizing players' values (ie your tilt is towards qualitative analysis rather than quantitative). speak english...please.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:15 am

Doesn't mean your an average manager...it means that where you picked each player in relation to the average spot of where that player was picked in all 20 leagues, did not vary much. You didn't drift...you didn't take a huge chance (on average). It could also mean you let the draft come to you.

The second piece meant that there was more of a reltiosnhip between your picks and a sample of 30 drafts (which I consider qualitative) than there was between your picks and the value of 5 publications.

BTW, you numbers changed as I was tweaking where your points came from. Let me know if it sounds right as it seems you made a lot of headway on FAAB.

[ January 12, 2006, 03:24 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:42 am

Hey Wagga Wagga....you probably have already answered this but are you an actuary or something? Or just plain like to get freaky with the numbers?

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:53 am

The thing about numbers, is that they are nothing BUT numbers. You can learn from history but it will not predict the future. They can point you in the right direction most of the time but that is about it. Analyzing the numbers is great for some, but for me it is gut feel on how I think that player will do on the team and field that he will play and where and how I think his manager will use him.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:59 am

I agree- it is not the most politically correct thing to say in these circles. I have been asked before why I think a guy will break through a lot of times it is hard to put in to words other than I watched him play. I imagine a very similar debate goes on between old school scouts and Bill James guys in the big leagues.

I do know that trying to predict if Arod is going to hit 42 homeruns or 36 homeruns does nothing to help you.

Originally posted by Plymouth:

The thing about numbers, is that they are nothing BUT numbers. You can learn from history but it will not predict the future. They can point you in the right direction most of the time but that is about it. Analyzing the numbers is great for some, but for me it is gut feel on how I think that player will do on the team and field that he will play and where and how I think his manager will use him.