Jeopardy Question!

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:07 am

I admit I am old school and just plain old. If it was all about numbers, why bother to play? Just throw the numbers in the PC and spit the numbers out and pay the winner. But I have to say that it is fun after the draft watching all the analysts pick the winners.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:17 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

But I have to say that it is fun after the draft watching all the analysts pick the winners. i agree. but, you don't have to wait for my spin. i will tell you right now my team will be one of the morning line favorites to win the 100K.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:25 am

Gordon, You are a nice enough guy and you know football, but in baseball you have not proven anything the last 2 years.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:27 am

Edward, No I am not an actuary...Money Ball and CFA studies has just taken over my brain. Brought together, they can actually tell you something.

Plymouth, the predictive stuff has more to do with valuing each of the stat categories as it relates to each player (and not necssarily getting the players projections right), how best to stack players categories from the draft (ie too many HR's doesn't add any value over and above a certain amount), and avoiding mistakes. I prefer objective data rather than subjective (ie my gut feelings). In the end, if your team has injuries you are doomed regardless of methodolgies....but one thing my analysis shows is that some managers are pretty special when it comes to getting value from FAAB to compensate injuries. Perhaps that is wy some of the more experienced players know better than to draft 2 closers in the first 10 rounds, or even 3 SP's in the first 10 rounds. On average, that strategy fails for a number of reasons.

Chest, I respect that it's not an exact science. I am sure after another year of this, I will no longer need numbers and analysis to better understand some of the nuances of this tournament. There just happened to be some things I wanted to better understand but also have some numbers to back my assumptions up.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:29 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

Gordon, You are a nice enough guy and you know football, but in baseball you have not proven anything the last 2 years. still coming in 70th out of 300 after losing thome and foulke in the process has to be a plus for me as a manager, doesn't it? i was up in the 20's when everything was flowing as expected. i guess it doesn't matter, as you said...

Originally posted by Plymouth:

You can learn from history but it will not predict the future.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:34 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

in baseball you have not proven anything the last 2 years. it would be much more interesting if we could somehow make this into a challenge, heck even include 4 or 5 serious folk.

something like whomever comes in worst overall of the 4-5 participants, would have to come to the 2007 nfbc wearing a dress and has to draft in it.

that would make this much more fun...but i don't think i could trust most people to live up to these terms. oh well...

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:37 am

for you that might be a treat GG - others don't think it is as much fun

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:37 am

Originally posted by Plymouth:

I admit I am old school and just plain old. If it was all about numbers, why bother to play? Just throw the numbers in the PC and spit the numbers out and pay the winner. But I have to say that it is fun after the draft watching all the analysts pick the winners. Plymouth, there is no way an analyst can predict the winner. But one thing the numbers can tell you is whether or not you have a better chance then others. My system had 10 of the 20 winners predicted to finish in at least 5ht place. That's not too shabby considering all the things that can happen throughout the season.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:13 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I'm not one to back off a challenge. I been thinking about not picking the last three draft picks. Here's what I purpose. As I'm not willing to sacrifice my main event entry, I willing to have someone who wanted to go Vegas to be a facilitator draft a team for me and not take any players in the last 4 rounds. But here is the catch, you being the next millioner in fantasy sports, I willing to bet a main event entry fee for 2007. It has to be a risk reward thing for me. It doesn't make sense to donate just to prove a point. Are you game? you said my three stiffs could have been replaced via reserves and FAAB. if that's the case, why even draft the players (stiffs)? if you meant what you said, you shouldn't draft three picks on draft day and then you can fill them with FA. [/QUOTE]I'm confused by this response. I don't think you are getting my point. The drop-off from those players are not as severe. If you replaced Loretta with let say Cano, how much did you get affected? If you lost A-rod and replaced him with Cano, now that is a lot more drop off. Why aren't you saying "why didn't I take Utley in the 7th round?" I know I have asked myself that a couple of times.

I didn't say not to draft three players. You told me to do it. I told you I was willing to do this to prove a point. Are you avoiding the question?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:18 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I'm confused by this response. I don't think you are getting my point. The drop-off from those players are not as severe. If you replaced Loretta with let say Cano, how much did you get affected? If you lost A-rod and replaced him with Cano, now that is a lot more drop off. Why aren't you saying "why didn't I take Utley in the 7th round?" I know I have asked myself that a couple of times.

I didn't say not to draft three players. You told me to do it. I told you I was willing to do this to prove a point. Are you avoiding the question? i understand the dropoff.

i understand that you can monday morning QB it and say you coulda picked up this FA or that one.

i agree that i wish i drafted all players that did well last year.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:22 am

in case anyone missed it...

Answer: He was the first fantasy player to win both the NFFC and NFBC, as well as being the first player in the world to reach $1,000,000 in career earnings.

Question: Who is Gordon Gekko?

the transfer of funds from your bank account to mine begins soon. thanks.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 12, 2006 12:17 pm

Originally posted by Plymouth:

I admit I am old school and just plain old. If it was all about numbers, why bother to play? Just throw the numbers in the PC and spit the numbers out and pay the winner. But I have to say that it is fun after the draft watching all the analysts pick the winners. If you find a computer that comes packaged with that program, let me know.

Actually, that is why I bother. If I feel I have a mathematical advantage, it is fun to watch and see if my team will come through on what they are supposed to do. Just watching and hoping, you're better off playing the lotto.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jan 13, 2006 2:38 am

Good luck, Gekko, on your first Fantasy Million.

I would like to go on record now with the IRS, however, that I have NEVER won a single dime in Fantasy Sports (or any other form of gambling or illicit activity). I ALWAYS lose!!!!!!

Mr. Cheney....Mr. Cheney...can you hear me now?

:rolleyes: