Las Vegas League 2

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by RedRyder:

All right KJ! Thanks for taking the time for write-ups & odds! Wayne at 35-1...DOUBLE OUCH!!! Don't worry Wayne, KJs computer had me at something like 10-1 to win our NFFC football league 2 years ago (with KJ being at like 6-1 of course )...and I won!



I think I nailed the bad teams in football ... and we were fighting it out for most of the season. But you should set all the football odds Jules!



Back to baseball, let's see some competing oddsmakers here ... my probability pcts to win are below (odds inverted). Give me your numbers, and they have to add to 100%, none of those phony juiced up Vegas odds!



Cameron, Duke 17%/17%

Quack 13%

Cassevetes 11%

Jules 9%

Borth 8%

Curtis 7%

Smith 4%

Miller, Edwards, Yamanouchi, Schiller 3%/3%/3%/3%

Bennett, Jones, Martin 1%/1%/1%



[ March 24, 2009, 01:30 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

[Edwards Kings]

After extensive and expensive time purchased on the the worlds most powerful comuputer I could afford, the odds I received were:



Edwards 6.67%

Cameron 6.66%

Duke 6.66%

Quack 6.66%

Cassevetes 6.66%

Jules 6.66%

Borth 6.66%

Curtis 6.66%

Smith 6.66%

Miller 6.66%

Yamanouchi 6.66%

Schiller 6.66%

Bennett 6.66%

Jones 6.66%

Martin 6.66%



I think that adds up to 100%!



Just kidding. Not sure how you come up with the odds, but I am damn sure I could not make a better one. Wouldn't know where to start. For a while at least I can tell everyone that I am tied for first right now!

[KJ Duke]

Your list might be better than mine Wayne. You are the John Hart of our league - on the MLB channel he predicts every team in baseball to finish tied for second in their division.

[RedRyder]

If I hadn't stopped tracking the draft in the 15th round, I would offer up my numbers...so regret not keeping track of the whole draft and now having to wait to see everyone's roster until they are loaded.

[Jeff Erickson]

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Your list might be better than mine Wayne. You are the John Hart of our league - on the MLB channel he predicts every team in baseball to finish tied for second in their division. Plus, players he likes "play the game the right way" and "know how to win."



And yet ... I still find myself watching each "30-in-30."

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Your list might be better than mine Wayne. You are the John Hart of our league - on the MLB channel he predicts every team in baseball to finish tied for second in their division. Plus, players he likes "play the game the right way" and "know how to win."



And yet ... I still find myself watching each "30-in-30." [/QUOTE]Same here, annoying at times but I still watch 'em.



Enjoyed meeting you this weekend Jeff, and great job running the auction on Friday.



I'll be listening in on your blogcasts this season.

[Edwards Kings]

The teams/draft has been uploaded but check your teams closely. While I did not track everyone's draft, I did notice two obvious mistakes and have emailed the owners.

[Purple Helmets]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

The teams/draft has been uploaded but check your teams closely. While I did not track everyone's draft, I did notice two obvious mistakes and have emailed the owners. Unfortunately my team was entered correctly. We'll see if I can "shock the world" and the KJ Duke odds by competing for the league title.

[Edwards Kings]

Kevin,



You drafted Hank Blalock I believe in the 14th? Well, Blalock is showing up as a free agent and Mike Moriarty, PIT, as your UT player.



Personally, I am ok with that, but you may want to contact Greg.

[Edwards Kings]

I have found a couple more, so folks really check your rosters. For example, I had it marked off that Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI was drafted, but he shows up as a free agent. There are a couple of others, so check closely.

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Kevin,



You drafted Hank Blalock I believe in the 14th? Well, Blalock is showing up as a free agent and Mike Moriarty, PIT, as your UT player.



Personally, I am ok with that, but you may want to contact Greg.



yep, already did last night

[Edwards Kings]

You sure you do not want Moriarity?

[KJ Duke]

Time for a mid-season odds update LV2 ... pre-season comments and updated assessments for each team.



The Favorites



6. Mike Cameron, Encinitas, California

Lifetime rank #293, but had a top 10 finish in 2005. Mike might recapture the magic this season. Drafted great values in SP led by Liriano, Lee, C Young and Carpenter. Added to his staff with a top, middle and one-half closer in Papelbon, Wilson and Ziegler. A top-3 staff combined with above-avg hitting led by Braun, Crawford and McCann. Downside to this team a lack of upside bats, so could fade as the season wears on without some FAAB bats.



Current 76 pts, 9th place. Above-avg hitting, weak pitching.



Assessment: Every SP drafted has been hurt or disappointed. Doesn't have the starting staff to get into contention for the lge title.



Key injuries: 12th C Young/SP, 13th Carpenter, 15th C Guillen



Underperformers: 5th F Liriano, 6th J Peralta, 8th A Gordon, 14th K Greene, 18th A Casilla



Best picks: 2nd Crawford, 19th Inge, 25th A Hill



5. Michael Quackenbush, Fort Myers, Florida

Appears to be a main event newcomer. Very balanced team. Started Miggy, C Lee, Aramis and McLouth. Late catchers could be solid in Pudge and Flores, and upside bats in Tulo and N Cruz. Staff aces are Felix, Volquez and Bedard, some upside with Scherzer and solid guys in Wang and Wolf at the back end. Nathan and Qualls closing. Nice draft for Quacky.



Current 82 pts, 4th place. Mediocre hitting, pitching above avg ex/ low Wins total.



Assessment: Pre-season outlook still holds. Aramis and Smoltz just back, very much in contention.



Key injuries: 3rd Aramis, 9th Volquez



Underperformers: 12th Kelly Johnson, 15th CM Wang



Best picks: 10th N Cruz, 17th O Hudson, 21st R Wolf, 29th S Rolen



3. Nick Cassavetes, Los Angeles, California

Lifetime rank #61, has been consistently good but never spectacular. Another balanced team with a slight edge to the pitching. Nick has the all-star keeper staff for sure: Billingsley, Gallardo, Nolasco, Kershaw, Cueto, Hanson and Zimmerman!



Current 118 pts, 2nd place. Leads lge in pitching, above-avg hitting.



Assessment: Pre-season outlook was spot on. Great staff and good hitting. No major injuries has been huge, plus nice recent pickup in McGehee and Nolasco is back on track last few starts. If good health continues no reason this team won't be fighting for the league title all season.



Key injuries: none yet



Underperformers: 9th R Nolasco, 13th H Kendrick, 14th R Ankiel, 16th Kotchman



Best picks: 15th Cueto, 18th T Hanson, 26th R Franklin



14. KJ Duke, San Diego, California

Lifetime rank #260, but a top finish at #26 and lge title two years ago. Pitching was a disaster in 2008, I didn't want a repeat of that in '09. I like this team - as I should since I drafted it two days ago - but it will depend on the health of Lincecum and Sabathia. Without those two performing as expected all season, my pitching strategy will tank. If healthy I can't see dropping out of the top tier.



Current 74 pts, 12th place. Very strong pitching, hitting has been a nightmare.



Assessment: In retrospect, I left myself no margin for errors in the hitting dept - and with 3 unmitigated disasters in Doumit, Bradley and Chris Young, my hitting went from potentially slightly above average to abysmal. With Wieters and Bradley beginning to contribute along with some FAAB help, hitting will be better 2nd half, and pitching should rise to the top of the lge. But dug much too deep a hole in batting pts - a longshot to finish in the money, middle of the pack is likely.



Key injuries: 6th Soria, 7th Doumit, 15th K Matsui



Underperformers: 8th C Young OF, 11th M Bradley



Best picks: 10th Sandoval, 12th J Johnson, 20th K Gregg



[ July 07, 2009, 09:24 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

[KJ Duke]

The Contenders



4. Laurence Curtis, Mission Viejo, California

Laurence, who also appears to be a main-event first-timer, drafted a heavy hitting team taking Pujols, Holliday, Manny, Vlad and Ortiz thru 5 rds. All of that BA allowed his to grab some BA-challenged hitters in Weeks and M Reynolds later on, and some light-hitting speedsters at MI in Andrus and Castillo. He should finish first or second in hitting pts. His first two pitchers both were closers, he's got some upside/injury risk starters so he may be leaving his options open to a reliever-heavy strategy if those at-risk pitchers don't pay off. The saves, era and whip potential give him enough to put him in contention for LV2.



Current 8th place, 77 pts. Balanced hit/pitch.



Assessment: Carried thus far by Pujols as disappointing seasons by a number of key hitters has dragged this team down. Hitting pts should rise in the 2nd half, but not a lot of upside from here in pitching pts. Expect upper division finish, but unlikely to challenge for the title.



Key injuries: 10th Nady, 11th Ervin Santana, 12th R Weeks



Underperformers: 2nd M Holliday, 3rd Manny's drug problem, 4th Vladdy, 9th Scott Baker



Best picks: 1st Pujols, 14th Jered Weaver, 15th M Reynolds, 16th Buehrle



10. Kyle Borth, Lawndale, California

Kyle is ranked #8 lifetime after two season of top-50 finishes. Very nice pitching value with Beckett, Zambrano, Cain and Lowe thru 11, with Carmona and Marshall later on. Grabbed old closers late in Hoffman and Percy, which should get him some closer pts at a low price. Hitting looks about average, but with a few upside bats. He also gets a few extra pts for past success.



Current 13th place, 67.5 pts. Hot start bud faded. Decent hitting, poor pitching.



Assessment: Mid and lower end of rotation has been a big disappointment and no help from FAAB SPs. If Alfonso comes around could have some batting upside, but at the very best only a middle of the pack team.



Key injuries: 10th Conor Jackson, 16th T Percival



Underperformers: 2nd A Soriano, 11th D Lowe, 13th O Cabrera, 15th F Carmona



Best picks: 9th M Cain, 14th M Bourn, 25th Russ Branyan, 26th A Rowand



11. Jules McLean, Los Angeles, California

Ranked #27 lifetime. This team looks pitching-challenged with Shields as the only ace, and the offense rates out statistically as only slightly above-avg. But two considerations make this team a contender. #1, Jules is running it, and you know she'll be in contention. #2, tons of upside bats. Some of these guys will come thru bigger than expected - Votto, Longoria, S Drew, Fontenot, A Jones, Dukes, Field and Mx Ramirez - which probably makes hitting pts better than they appear on paper. Same goes for the pitching staff. Unless the youth movement falls on its face, this team will be in contention.



Current 7th place, 79.5 pts. Good hitting, weak pitching.



Assessment: Season preview was about right. Hitting could get a Josh Hamilton-boost, but expect more of the same from the pitching staff. Could sneak into the money but unlikely title contender.



Key injuries: 1st Josh Hamilton, 8th BJ Ryan



Underperformers: 9th M DeRosa, 12th A Harang, 15th E Dukes



Best picks: 4th Votto, 5th T Hunter, 11th Adam Jones, 23rd D Aardsma



2. Aaron J. Smith, Wakefield, Rhode Island

Ranked #5 lifetime based on two seasons with a top 20 and a top 60 finish. Pitchers look solid with Haren, Burnett and Lilly at the top and a servicable backend rotation. Two and a half solid closers in Valverde, Wood and Corpas helps out. Hitting looks a little below-avg, but there are some upside bats here so they could surprise and be above-avg as well. Likely to finish in the league top 5, but may not have enough to win it.



Current 6th place, 80.5 pts. Below-avg hitting, above-avg pitching.



Assessment: Right on pace with expectations. FAAB adds McCutcheon and S Hairston help offset mid-draft disappointments. Outlook remains the same as pre-season.



Key injuries: 1st Jose Reyes,



Underperformers: 5th Uggla, 7th JJ Hardy, 8th Milledge, 12th D Young, 17th M Corpas



Best picks: 3rd Jason Bay, 4th D Haren, 27th R Porcello



7. Bradley Miller, Scottsdale, Arizona

Ranked #117 lifetime. Another hitting-heavy team. Took only one pitcher in the first 9 rds. Lots of BA and speed with 3 leadoff-men in the OF; power could be only mediocre but 3 high cats and 2 in the middle is a very good offensive output. Pitching doesn't rate that well as the Duke computer is down on hometown ace Peavy. The backend of the rotation is unexciting too with Oliver Perez, Saunders and Pettite. Past success argues this team picks up some better SPs thru FAAB which gets it into contention. Don't see a lot of upside though, so probably more a contender for third than first.



Current 3rd place, 100.5 pts. Hitting about average, but pitching better than expected.



Assessment: Drafted pitchers very uninspiring - as expected - with the exception of Verlander, but here comes Jason Marquis to the rescue! Unlikely but true. Still think this team max's out at current 3rd place, and could very well slide back in the second half. Wins the FAAB war for first half of the season.



Key injuries: 1st Grady Sizemore, 5th Peavy, 9th C Delgado,



Underperformers: 2nd L Berkman, 3rd Alex Rios, 7th Chipper, 10th Joba, 15th Carlos Gomez, 17th Oliver Perez



Best picks: 6th Victor Martinez, 11th H Bell, 12th Verlander, 14th H Street



[ July 07, 2009, 09:44 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

[KJ Duke]

Teams that need a FAAB-boost.



8. Wayne Edwards, Duluth, Georgia

Ranked #274 lifetime, but a vet who knows the ropes. Backend of the rotation as it stands looks to be a drag. Wandy, Sonnanstine, Arroyo. Well, maybe one of these guys may work out. Front-end is solid in Kazmir, Danks and Vazquez, but not enough to compete with the upper half of the lge. Hitting looks about average, but there is plenty of upside to become well above-average. If Wayne can find a Cliff Lee/ Ricky Nolasco type and manage his otherwise mediocre staff deftly, this team jumps into contention.



Current 60.5 pts, 14th place. Below avg hitting, farther below avg pitching.



Assessment: Pre-season pitching assessment was right on with the exception of Kazmir sucking. Three major disappointments of top 7 hitters hard to overcome. Colby could help out in the 2nd half, Rollins is looking better, and a stronger BJ Upton and upside with G Beckham could get batting pts back to respectability. Some upside to the pitching staff as well. Expect Wayne to rally to at least the lower-middle of the standings with upside to perhaps 6th-7th place.



Key injuries: 5th Lidge



Underperformers: 1st Rollins, 6th Kazmir, 7th Beltre, 10th E Encarnacion, 17th Sonnanstine



Best picks: 9th Hawpe, 13th Konerko, 24th Rafael Soriano, 25th Colby Rasmus





13. Brian Yamanouchi, Danvers, Massachusetts

First-time main event player. Sat to my left and stole multiple players from me. Nice job on that Brian. This team is totally out of balance. Strong pitching, weak hitting. Santana, Lester, Myers, Garza along with Mariano to close forms a nice pitching base. This team's OF, as it stands now, would be its downfall. Ludwick, Span, Cody Ross, Byrnes and JD Drew. Far too many question marks to come thru. FAAB a couple of big OF bats and you could be back in the game.



Current 74.5 pts, 11th place. Below-avg hitting, solid pitching.



Assessment: Pre-season outlook still holds. FAAB hasn’t helped much, hard to see getting into contention for anything.



Key injuries: 9th B Myers,



Underperformers: 3rd Furcal, 4th Chris Davis, 6th G Atkins, 7th Ludwick, 13th M Jacobs, 16th Parra,



Best picks: 14th Sherrill, 17th J Bartlett





1. Kevin Schiller, Marina del Rey, California

Kevin is a very good ffootball player crossing over to baseball. He drafted from the #1 slot, and I thought he nailed his first 10 picks perfectly. His front-end hitters were great, but as he filled out the OF a lot of hitting pts dropped off the board. Choo, DeJesus, Lind and Luke Scott occupy 4 OF slots, even with a very strong IF, I think those holes bring his hitting back from great to just good. Pitching looks below avg as he could need to fill-in for Pedro and D Price for a decent part of the season. If those two pitchers throw 180 quality innings and he can find some quality OF help, this team could fly up the rankings.



Current 129 pts, 1st place/ 2nd overall. Dominating!



Assessment: Oops.  Well, I did say he nailed his top 10 picks, and that he did. However, unforseen by me Choo, Lind and Scott have come thru huge. Grenike has likewise been unstoppable and Kevin nabbed a big prize FAAB player early in Edwin Jackson. This team is real good, obviously. Can he maintain the pace? His hitters look real good going forward. His pitching staff could regress with Halladay's injury, Edwin Jackson's magical first half possibly regressing and Slowey's recent decline. This team also has been practically injury-free, which isn't easy to do over a full season. Conclusion: could be tough to remain a top 5 team over the remainder of the season, but no doubt a heavy favorite to take the lge title.



Key injuries: none yet



Underperformers: 4th G Soto, 12th J Motte, 14th DeJesus



Best picks: 2nd Prince, 8th Ibanez, 9th Greinke, 13th Choo, 17th Lind, 19th L Scott, 28th Barajas

[KJ Duke]

The longshots



15. Kenneth Jones, Las Vegas, Nevada

Another NFBC first-timer. Brutal draw picking from the #15 slot in a loaded league. Both hitting and pitching look below-average, but there are some very big upside players on this team with Maybin, J Upton, J Pierre (if gets a full-time job), A-Rod and Helton. Very, very risky starting staff with Hamels, Duchscherer, Harden and Devine. Lots of potential talent on this team, enough even to win the league, but tons of risk so everything would need to fall just right. Clearly a longshot, but not without a shot.



Current: 24 pts, 15th place. This team has been effectively unmanaged virtually all season.



Assessment: All the risky pitchers were just that, this was a bad team to begin with and without any FAAB help is destined to finish with less than 20 pts.



9. Charles Bennett, Spokane, Washington

Ranked #257 lifetime, but had improved each season until regressing in '08. Team looks balanced, but unfortunately in mediocrity. Backend of the rotation of Floyd, Pelfry and Kawakami doesn't look strong, but it isn't horrible and I'll admit any of those guys could beat my low projections for them. Hitting looks OK, but I see much more injury/age downside than upside in Mauer, Varitek, M Young, Tejada, Ichiro, Burrell and Francouer.



Current 75 pts, 10th place. Good hitting, weak pitching.



Assessment: Lost ace B Webb and Marmol was a wasted pick. Carried by Youk and Mauer thus far.

No turn around in sight. Will finish near the bottom.



12. Mike Martin/Gerry Dodson, University Heights, Ohio

Another newcomer to the main event, I believe. A balanced team, but looks a little below average in all phases. Several positions that I think would qualify as holes in the lineup (Haiston at MI, J Guillen in the OF, Njyer at UT) and an OK but unspectacular pitching staff led by Oswalt, Lackey, Wainwright and R Johnson. Probably not a last place team, but likely a lower division team because aside from a couple of bench picks in D Fowler and Neftali, I don't see the upside to get into contention.



Current 82 pts, 5th place. Good hitting, below-avg pitching.



Assessment: Utley, C Beltran and A Gonzalez and late pick Casey Blake have led the charge for this team. Expect a regression in the second half, likely a middle-tier team in the end at best.



[ July 08, 2009, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

[KJ Duke]

LV2 Updated Odds to Win (old and New)



Heavy favorites

Schiller 40:1 5:2

Cassevetes 9:1 3:1



Contenders

Miller 30:1 7:1

Quack 8:1 10:1



Need Help

Jules 11:1 25:1

Curtis 15:1 25:1

Smith 25:1 25:1

Martin/Dobson 99:1 30:1

Cameron 6:1 35:1



Longshots

Duke 6:1 75:1

Bennett 75:1 75:1

Yamanouchi 40:1 75:1

Edwards 35:1 100:1

Borth 12:1 100:1



No shot

Jones 75:1 5000:1

[Edwards Kings]

100:1. Well, at least something is going up!



Looks like you were bang on about me, Mr. Duke. The whole "management" thing was especially prophetic. I must say, out of all my underachieving team, I am most surprised by Sonnanstine. I had him as a rock.