Chicago League 4

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:49 am

Originally posted by rucrew2:

quote:Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

9-1 Team Cutler Big power, light on speed. Short on saves

quote:Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Wins are a crapshoot and saves are short (I have ordered Devine and Street voodoo dolls).

Gary One down - one to go.

[/QUOTE]Might not last very long, but.....

Huston Street has reportedly edged Manny Corpas for the closer's role in Colorado, according to the Denver Post. ~ Rototimes

[/QUOTE]BTW, not rooting against you. I have Street

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:37 pm

Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

9-1 Team Cutler Big power, light on speed. Short on saves

quote:Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Wins are a crapshoot and saves are short (I have ordered Devine and Street voodoo dolls).

Gary One down - one to go.

[/QUOTE]I think Street's days as Col closer ended today. He did come into the game in the ninth. It was a non-save situation but he was in there to finish the game. He gave up a leadoff homer to D. Lee and the bullpen started warming up. Not a good sign for the "closer" when the manager gets the pen going after one batter and they still had a three run lead.

Street then walked the next batter and was yanked. Clint Hurdle had a supershort leash and only gave Street two batters. You don't do that if he is your guy. It looked like he couldn't wait to pull Street.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't name Corpas the closer in Philly tommorrow.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:32 am

Originally posted by rucrew2:

quote:Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

9-1 Team Cutler Big power, light on speed. Short on saves

quote:Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Wins are a crapshoot and saves are short (I have ordered Devine and Street voodoo dolls).

Gary One down - one to go.

[/QUOTE]I think Street's days as Col closer ended today. He did come into the game in the ninth. It was a non-save situation but he was in there to finish the game. He gave up a leadoff homer to D. Lee and the bullpen started warming up. Not a good sign for the "closer" when the manager gets the pen going after one batter and they still had a three run lead.

Street then walked the next batter and was yanked. Clint Hurdle had a supershort leash and only gave Street two batters. You don't do that if he is your guy. It looked like he couldn't wait to pull Street.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't name Corpas the closer in Philly tommorrow.

[/QUOTE]I have given you guys a good size lead and with Dice-BB on the DL, I will throw Corpas this weekend. It wasn't the plan to go from Worst to First but after these first 10 days I am certianly Worst.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Mon Apr 27, 2009 4:00 am

Pat Burrell NFBC Chicago League 4 Hang Tough $673

This may be a Main Event Record, even if not it certainly drew out some BIG FAAB!

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Tue May 12, 2009 10:45 am

Hey George. I don’t know if you noticed the newest member to the NFBC message board. Looks like the rights to your intellectual property are being infringed on.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:23 am

It's fun to go back and look at the predictions people made and see how the teams are doing right now.. obviously this is far from over, but it seems Diamond Knights and Top of the Fourth (Now changed name to Bottom of the Fourth haha) were a bit overrated, and Bambinos and Less than Dave underrated... especially Bambinos who is in 1st right now... I just wish I didn't give Pugs an added Ryan Franklin boost

He now leads the league in saves I believe...

So what are the odds going forward from here? I haven't been studying everyone's teams, but speaking for my own team, I know it all comes down to saves... my first 3 picks haven't even really gotten going yet.. Phillips and Wright just started to heat up the last week or so, and AROD just came back, so I expect an offensive surge... it all comes down to saves.. my starters are good, if I can get a closer or 2 out of Nunez, Madson, and Beimel, I think I should win the league.. but I think it'll be close with Bambimns and Bull Pen Pugs really kicking ass right now.. and then you have Navel Lint, In It To Win It, and Hang Tough all with 90+ points as well... it'll be fun, but let's get the overall winner from this league.. that would be awesome.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:30 am

I was actually going to work up some new odds this week. Six weeks into the season is about the quarter pole and I figure it's time to review my previous post and make new odds. Probably Thursday.

Keep up the good season everyone.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Thu May 21, 2009 4:28 pm

Originally posted by rucrew2:

I saw this type of post in another league and I thought I would try it here. These are just my opinions based on draft day rosters. We all know that your draft roster won’t be the same as your final roster, but it’s a starting point. I also think that the draft is about 65% of the equation to the final standings puzzle. Roster moves, FAAB, and injuries are the other 35%. So, with that in mind, here are;

Odds to win 2009 Chicago League 4 Championship;

7-1 Bull Pen Pugs Saves and performance of a couple young OF’s will be key. quote: Adam Lind has been awsome. Bought 11 saves from FAAB. Currently in 2nd 15-2 Navel Lint Middle level power, solid avg and steals. Saves will be the challenge. Third most hitting points. Saves have been a problem and I've been out-spent for closers. Can't buy a win for my staff - Currently 4th 9-1 Team Cutler Big power, light on speed. Short on saves Power has not shown up. Runs and RBI's are down as a result. Steals and saves are low. ERA and Whip are middle of pack. Currently 12th 11-1 That’s A Winner Monster power. Solid Starters with high K’s Geo Soto is struggling, lost Manny to PED's. Starters have you leading in ERA and near top in K's. Currently 7th 11-1 Less than Dave Lack of power will be biggest problem. V. Martinez has been a monster. ARod back in the lineup. D Wright stealing bases again. Waived Fraklin one week to soon. Currently 3rd place 12-1 Diamond Knights Avg will be a drag on team. Save total could be 35-90 Near the bottom in all ratio catagories. Last in saves. Adds up to currently in 11th 14-1 Bambinos Very balanced. Question marks are ratio categories; avg & era Team is balanced. first in hitting, third in pitching. Iwamura .303, Beltran .370 and Blake .287 are keeping AVG near the league lead. Currently 1st 17-1 Broken Arms Plenty of speed and power, but saves and maybe even RBI’s a problem Power is off, Ichiro and Victorino only have 8SB combined. 12 in RBI's. Currently 9th 20-1 Hang Tough Surprising lack of counting stats for the number of AB’s projected Secong in pitching points. Billingsly and Bell leading the way. Middle of pack in hitting. Currently 5th 20-1 Teamsters Potential upside SP. Should be 25-1, but giving union brother discount. Solid Offense. Pitching has not been good. C M-Wang ........enough said. Currently 10th 20-1 In it 2 Win It Wieters, Choo, and Sandoval will be the keys to team. Choo and Sandaval have been good, problem is Alexia Ramirez and Tulo have not. Still waiting on Wieters. Currently 6th 33-1 Smoky Mnt Oysters Speed to burn. Power, RBI’s & K’s are the problem. Maybin fizzled. Elvis only has 4 SB, Sizemore hitting .208. Only getting 9 points from HR's, RBI's, and K's. Currently 14th 50-1 MP Hammers I think the weakest overall hitting. Pitching OK, but won’t cover hitting. Not the worst in hitting, but still only getting 22 pts. Volquez and Nolasco are struggling. Currently 13th 100-1 Underdogs Some big power, but came at a sacrifice of SB and avg. 14th in AVG and Last in SB but the power never came. D Ortiz 1, DLee 4, McCann 2. Currently 15th 100-1 Team Grooms Bottom third hitting, worst pitching on the board. The team I missed the mark on by the most. Pitching has been OK behind Z Duke. Hitting is middle of pack. Currently 8th I will post new odds for the league on Fri. As always, feel free to fire away

[/quote]

[ May 22, 2009, 09:57 AM: Message edited by: rucrew2 ]

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Fri May 22, 2009 10:56 am

OK. There is still a long way to go but roughly 25% of the season is done. The standings are starting to settle down and it’s time to take a new look at my projections for the league title.

Updated Odds to Win 2009 Chicago League 4 listed in order of current standings;

Bambinos: 11/2; Solid offense, needs AVG and starting pitching to hold out.

Bull Pen Pugs: 9/2; Need Aramis and Vlad to come back and Berkman to hit. Owner has track record. Still the team to beat.

Less Than Dave: 7-1; Will Mark Reynolds keep it going, Needs to find more saves.

Navel Lint: 11-1; Hitting is starting to slow down. Hard to make up ground in wins were I am last. Top two starters, Peavy and Oswalt, have 4 wins combined.

Hang Tough: 12-1; Just lost Delgado for two months. Reyes struggling. Need Beckett and Danks to pick it up.

That’s A Winner: 14-1; Have had many injuries ( Zambrano, Gordon, Hafner) and lost Manny. Needs to get everyone in the lineup to make a push.

Bushballers: 25-1; Pujols, .326 and Hill .346 and still last in AVG. Needs young starters Lester and Blackburn to pitch better and Zack Duke to stay solid.

Broken Arms: 25-1; Good team with balance. Just needs whole team to be better.

Field: 7-1; Still a long way to go and it’s way too early to count anyone out.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri May 22, 2009 12:33 pm

Originally posted by rucrew2:

OK. There is still a long way to go but roughly 25% of the season is done. The standings are starting to settle down and it’s time to take a new look at my projections for the league title.

Updated Odds to Win 2009 Chicago League 4 listed in order of current standings;

Bambinos: 11/2; Solid offense, needs AVG and starting pitching to hold out.

Bull Pen Pugs: 9/2; Need Aramis and Vlad to come back and Berkman to hit. Owner has track record. Still the team to beat.

Less Than Dave: 7-1; Will Mark Reynolds keep it going, Needs to find more saves.

Navel Lint: 11-1; Hitting is starting to slow down. Hard to make up ground in wins were I am last. Top two starters, Peavy and Oswalt, have 4 wins combined.

Hang Tough: 12-1; Just lost Delgado for two months. Reyes struggling. Need Beckett and Danks to pick it up.

That’s A Winner: 14-1; Have had many injuries ( Zambrano, Gordon, Hafner) and lost Manny. Needs to get everyone in the lineup to make a push.

Bushballers: 25-1; Pujols, .326 and Hill .346 and still last in AVG. Needs young starters Lester and Blackburn to pitch better and Zack Duke to stay solid.

Broken Arms: 25-1; Good team with balance. Just needs whole team to be better.

Field: 7-1; Still a long way to go and it’s way too early to count anyone out. Mathematically, the field odds should be 3.25:1 holding the others constant.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Fri May 22, 2009 1:00 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by rucrew2:

OK. There is still a long way to go but roughly 25% of the season is done. The standings are starting to settle down and it’s time to take a new look at my projections for the league title.

Updated Odds to Win 2009 Chicago League 4 listed in order of current standings;

Bambinos: 11/2; Solid offense, needs AVG and starting pitching to hold out.

Bull Pen Pugs: 9/2; Need Aramis and Vlad to come back and Berkman to hit. Owner has track record. Still the team to beat.

Less Than Dave: 7-1; Will Mark Reynolds keep it going, Needs to find more saves.

Navel Lint: 11-1; Hitting is starting to slow down. Hard to make up ground in wins were I am last. Top two starters, Peavy and Oswalt, have 4 wins combined.

Hang Tough: 12-1; Just lost Delgado for two months. Reyes struggling. Need Beckett and Danks to pick it up.

That’s A Winner: 14-1; Have had many injuries ( Zambrano, Gordon, Hafner) and lost Manny. Needs to get everyone in the lineup to make a push.

Bushballers: 25-1; Pujols, .326 and Hill .346 and still last in AVG. Needs young starters Lester and Blackburn to pitch better and Zack Duke to stay solid.

Broken Arms: 25-1; Good team with balance. Just needs whole team to be better.

Field: 7-1; Still a long way to go and it’s way too early to count anyone out. Mathematically, the field odds should be 3.25:1 holding the others constant.

[/QUOTE]Two things. I rounded all teams, and I think the field would actually be 7.83 to 1

[ May 22, 2009, 07:11 PM: Message edited by: rucrew2 ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri May 22, 2009 3:03 pm

The implied probability of one of the first 8 teams winning is 76.5%.

That leaves 23.5% for the field.

1 / (3.25 + 1) = 23.5%.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Fri May 22, 2009 3:13 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

The implied probability of one of the first 8 teams winning is 76.5%.

That leaves 23.5% for the field.

1 / (3.25 + 1) = 23.5%. I came up with 87.2% for the first eight, but whatever

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat May 23, 2009 5:47 am

ENOUGH MATH!! hahaha...

And I think the correct thing to say about my team is "Needs Saves" not "Needs MORE saves"... my 1 closer is retiring apparrently...

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat May 23, 2009 5:53 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

ENOUGH MATH!! hahaha...

And I think the correct thing to say about my team is "Needs Saves" not "Needs MORE saves"... my 1 closer is retiring apparrently... I agree about the math. And, as I reread my post it looks like I inadvertently skipped ‘In It To Win It’

I will have to correct that oversight.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat May 23, 2009 8:35 am

Originally posted by rucrew2:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

The implied probability of one of the first 8 teams winning is 76.5%.

That leaves 23.5% for the field.

1 / (3.25 + 1) = 23.5%. I came up with 87.2% for the first eight, but whatever

[/QUOTE]Could you be missing the "1" in calculating individual odds? If odds are 3:1, that is an implied 25% chance [1/(3+1)]of winning, not 33%.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat May 23, 2009 9:53 am

stooooppppppppp

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat May 23, 2009 4:22 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

stooooppppppppp if ax 2 + bx + c = 0 then x = ( -b (b 2 - 4ac) ) / 2a

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat May 23, 2009 7:08 pm

/kill

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sun Jun 07, 2009 3:53 am

I come back to read this thread a month later and we are "inadvertently" skipped in the new odds.

We have to play the NO RESPECT card! (kidding).

We've been light on hitting all year and every week we lose a bat to "something". This week Tulo hurts his hand (maybe a good thing), Dye is suspended, and Willingham gets the dreaded viral infection. Of course, then I read this thread and feel "lucky" since we haven't lost our 1st rd draft pick to a hammy/calf strain (Reyes) or our 2nd/3rd rd pick to PEDs. Last year, we led our Chicago league for 1 day and then lost our top 2 picks for the next 8 weeks.

Tough league. I remember right where the Bambinos were sitting on draft day thinking "he's putting together a nice team".

good luck the rest of the way. Watch out for bottom of the 4th- they are sneaking up the standings. And watch out for that 3rd place team... I forget their name an don't have their odds to win it. out

Rich, Nashville TN

In It 2 Win It

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:26 am

3 in the top 16... nice job guys! Represent Chicago 4!! I know my team hasn't even hit its stride yet with AROD and Wright not playing to their ability and with Harden and Smoltz on their way back, and finally getting some saves now from Madson and Howell... let's keep the title in Chicago.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri Jun 19, 2009 1:24 pm

well dave, depends what you wanted from david wright. little homers but he's on pace for 45 steals or so! we have him on our online championship league and also love the batting avg. arod isn't 100% so not sure how much that has affected his return so far.

it would be great if we could have 3 finish in the top 10.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:29 am

[ June 29, 2009, 03:29 PM: Message edited by: Navel Lint ]

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:53 am

I have changed my screen name. I had been meaning to do it for a while to match up with my team name. My previous name, rucrew2, was associated with an email address.

For the past several weeks I have been on vacation and I feel recharged. I figured now was the perfect time to “fix” my screen name and get a fresh new look.

Now if I can only recharge my team and make a run in the second half of the season.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:27 am

Good news. I just read on the message board that as of the All-Star break our league is “on pace” to be one of the worst in NFBC history. So…….. We’ve got that going for us.

Dave, Edward, Ken and Rich; you should be embarrassed to be leading our league and doing so well in the overall. If I were you, I would start laying down some so that the rest of us bums can catch-up.