Reference Materials

[Hoosier]

I know this question has been asked previously but could not find the previous posting(s). What do you veterans of NFBC recommend as far as reference materials go. I have looked at several and of course, everyone touts theirs as the best but I would like to hear your opinions. Appreciate the help!!

[Edwards Kings]

My favorite for several years has been Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and Encyclopedia of Fanalytics.

[ToddZ]

I personally favor a small web site with a pretty decent reputation, whose principals have participated in and won NFBC leagues. They already have their 2012 product available and are feverishly preparing an update for Dec. 15 that will include all the recent moves as well as a tool specifically designed for the NFBC Slow Drafts that are about to commence.

What? Aramis Ramirez signed with Milwaukee? Ben Francisco was traded to Toronto?

Sorry, gotta run.....

[Ryan C]

Todd beat me to the punch here - but I have been subscribing to Mastersball for the past few years as a companion to the Forecaster. I think the content has gotten better and better every year and I found that the Mastersball.com projections method fit more neatly with how I actually tended to draft. Their player profiles, which are available only to platinum members are just as fun to read and updated constantly.The Forecaster is great starting point every year that most big dogs in these contests will have on their reading lists. It also is nice to have for quick reference all through the year. However, because it's a book - the names and values can't change with the times. To get updated numbers you have to sign up for Baseball HQ. I do both - but it is worth noting as the Baseball HQ subscription is pricey. (I do Rotopass). Mastersball I think is at this point still a stealth tool for those who are looking for an alternate set of numbers with a focus on drafting. (Full disclosure - I am an unpaid Forum Moderator at Mastersball - so please don't call me a shill Walla )

I know that many NFBC vets wait for Gene McCaffrey's Wise Guy Baseball and swear by it. Getting Lindy Hinkleman to endorse your product isn't a bad way to ensure that anyone actually trying to win the NFBC will likely have to at least consider adding it to their yearly purchases.

[Gekko]

i mostly research players via the internet and apply the techniques i've learned. in prior years i've supplemented my work with BBHQ. good luck

[Paul Gromek]

Todd and co. put out a good product over at Mastersball. I would recommend it.

[Gekko]

Todd and co. put out a good product over at Mastersball. I would recommend it.

agreed. i've looked over their forums every now and again.

[Walla Walla]

There's nothing you need to pay for that you can't get off the internet for free. The stats are out there free. You'd be shocked how often you end up saying I already knew that when it comes to pay sites. You get a lot of it right here on these boards. Mastersball has a nice free board also. The pay sites really make their money on projections. But both Todd Zola and
Ron Shandler agree that hitting 80% on projections is good. You can do as well on your own most likely. The trick is in season management. The pay sites are always about a week late on who you should pick up. It's a job you have to do on your own.
Research each week the box scores, news, injuries and call ups. This is how the top players win. Me? I was always too lazy to do the work and never won.

Now for Ryan C. I'm a shill too! I'm a big fan of Mean Gene! His yearly book gives great inside info. But more important it's a fun read. Gene leaves me laughing at some of the things he writes. A very smart and gifted writer.

[Ryan C]

I agree John on Gene's work. He writes like he is talking to you.

I also enjoy Pete Kreutzer's annual Fantasy Baseball Guide. It is the one magazine I buy every year. Always a fun read and I like to have one mag with players listed alphabetically for quick reference at drafts.

[converge241]

I love sitting and reading the Forescaster and Prospectus but there isnt usually a ton of fantasy knowledge gleaned, its more just fun ofseason in hand reading.

[Captain Hook]

The pay sites are always about a week late on who you should pick up. It's a job you have to do on your own.
.

All respect to the second part of your message John, but the first part is not true at least with the Premium part of Mastersball - there are specific articles written on players who should be picked up and early enough that you can still do it in most leagues.

Lots of sites can write up the players once they have disappeared from the free agent lists. I trust most readers can tell the difference in the timeliness of the information.

[Walla Walla]

Perry, True in most leagues. You do a great job at Masterballs. But in the NFBC most of the time players really worth a pickup are long gone. The players you may be keying on to watch are being picked up the week before. Hey it's a tough contest and many a Pro has learned that lesson!

[Hells Satans]

Fangraphs have everything you could ever need in terms of making your projections

[Fourslot40]

Challenge yourself... go in with a plan.... gather information, utilize resources and figure out how you want to attack your draft. You're going up against the best, so have a plan B,C,D and E. Some will pay for draft sites... but, that takes the fun out of it in my opinion. There's pride in making your own projections. You can find great free information on players. Alot of the fun is putting in the work and coming up with your personal plan. Like Walla said, there are plenty of stats sites out there. You have 100 days, per Glenn's post to begin your homework.... Go for it!

[Gekko]

There's pride in making your own projections.

along with hundreds of hours

[devilznj]

With all this talk about Mastersball.com, thought I'd give it a try. Unfortunately when you go to join their Platinum service you just get an "invalid token" message. Tried clearing my cache like they said, but same thing happens. I wonder if others are being turned away by this?

[ToddZ]

With all this talk about Mastersball.com, thought I'd give it a try. Unfortunately when you go to join their Platinum service you just get an "invalid token" message. Tried clearing my cache like they said, but same thing happens. I wonder if others are being turned away by this?

PLEASE don't give up yet. This is a glitch with our infrastructure remembering cookies but I promise you I have successfully worked everyone through the problem and they have no issues going forward.

Please feel free to contact me directly (PM through NFBC forums work) and we will have you setup in no time.

[devilznj]

Just a follow-up:

I was immediately contacted by Todd - like scary immediately - and he got me in.

Just starting to look around and it looks like money well spent.

Now who is this Jose Reyes guy everyone is talking about?

[Captain Hook]

I wanted to add two things to the discussion of......."I can just do it myself......or lots of places to get it for free"
Both are true of course, but both are like Chinese food and in short order you are hungry for more.
For all the free lists one could use the old saw "you get what you pay for". But really if you want to play at this level with a draft list from ESPN.....PLEASE be my guest.
As for doing your own there are several noted players here that do (and some that claim to) but even in that mode, I always wanted two things - to check my own thinking to make sure I didn't miss something or someone; and to know what the majority of the players who would enter a competition like the NFBC were thinking - one of the many reasons why so many here buy the Forecaster.

But there are always advances in the methods and I think if you look at Todd's new program - MASTERSNEUTS, you may well want to take advantage of it.............from his notes to our Platinum subscribers

BACKGROUND AND THEORY

Here at MastersBall, each season we project every ballplayer that has played at the Double-A level or above since 2009. For the first time ever, these projections, affectionately called the MastersNeuts are being made available to you, our valued Platinum subscriber.

Just what are the MastersNeuts? A projection is really nothing more than a series of translations applied to a player's past performance. These translations involve MLEs (minor league equivalency, a manner to convert what a Minor League player did to how he would have done in the Majors exhibiting that skill by considering his age, level and home park), aging curves and park effects. Our projections also incorporate regression of the luck-based factors. By the end of the process, a park neutral, hence the term "Neuts", projection is derived. In layman's terms, the Neut is how we would project the player if he played in a completely neutral park this season. In order to obtain the actual projection, all we have to do is assign the home team and playing time and everything is dynamically calculated. The we is now YOU! Available for download is a spreadsheet coded with the Neut for 1435 hitters (well, 1434 plus Adam Dunn) and 1553 pitchers. I am sure you have seen other web sites and magazines market how many players they project, usually about 1000. Well, we project 2988 players! Geez, 13 more and we could have said OVER 3000 PLAYERS PROJECTED!!!

WHAT CAN I DO WITH THE MASTERSNEUTS?

Good question. As suggested above, the neutral projection is adjusted by the home park and playing time estimate. For hitters, everything runs off of plate appearances, with innings pitched being the lynchpin. For now, you are stuck with our skill and relative performance projection, but you can personalize projections by massaging the playing time to your liking and see how a player's numbers differ via changing park effects. Here are some examples of the utility of the MastersNeuts.

Projecting free agents - Are you concerned what would happen if your keeper hitter signs with San Diego or your pitcher with Colorado? Now you can see exactly how we would project that player with his new team.

Playing time changes - There are no doubt several instances where you disagree with our assessment of a player's plate appearances of innings pitched. Now, all you have to do is type in the number you feel is more representative and you get a projection reflecting that abridged playing time.

Projecting Minor Leaguers - Perhaps the most compelling use of the MastersNeuts is to get a feel for how Minor Leaguers we do not include with our regular projection set would fare if they make the opening day roster. Every season, we get a multitude of requests for projections of this sort, and now you can get it by the click or two of your mouse. The plan is to update the Neuts during the season, translating 2012 performance to date, so you can continue to use this tool throughout the entire campaign.

[ToddZ]

But really if you want to play at this level with a draft list from ESPN.....PLEASE be my guest.

Umm...

never mind

[DOUGHBOYS]

I admire all the work that Todd and fellow numerish fellas put in to breaking down numbers.
Our hobby is similar to being a psychiatrist sometimes.
You know those lawyer shows on tv where they call four psychiatrists to claim a guy is sane, then the other side calls four other psychiatrists to claim insanity?
Same here.
We can get four touts (I don't know why, but that word comes off the tongue as well as expert) to say that Justin Upton is a first rounder and then have four more to come in and exclaim second rounder. In both cases, the jury is still left to decide on their own.

Even if we do all the work on our own, we still want to know what the other guy is doing.
Mocksturbation (I told you I'd use it, Todd) is not useful at this level. 15 unknown folks playing for nothing is a little like NBA players playing in a pick up game, only bad habits will ensue and very little information is gleaned.
Magazines are like new cars, they look shiny and new and you just can't wait to give it a whirl, but as soon as it leaves the showroom floor, its value is cut in half. The time element does the same to magazines. Yesterday, Michael Cuddyer may have gone in the 14th round, today, it's the 12th or 13th. No magazine at your Piggly Wiggly can tell you that.

So, we are left with online sources. How much time and money you want to invest in any of these sites is up to you.
As said before, invariably, the lists will be similar. If you're reading this though, a simple list will not suffice. We want to know the how and why they are where they are on a list. If you can find a site that adequately meets your expectations in this quest, then Bingo.

I've said before that customer service means as much to me as anything else in looking for a site.
Mastersball gives the same kind of service that we are used to here with Greg and Tom in the NFBC.
Plus, Todd and Perry have played in the NFBC. I don't want to make this a commercial endorsement for Mastersball, but that gives them a leg up on everybody else.

[ToddZ]

Other than my original comment, I have tried to stay out of this but I do want to thank everyone for their kind words.

I do want to make one comment on the "do your own work" advice.

Reasons vary - but sometimes one requires a little help at times. I can change my own oil, but I usually have the guy at the express lube do it.

Food analogies usually work with this group, so maybe the best way to put it is like this. Some people like to buy a cake already made so all they have to do is cut a slice and dig in. Others pride themselves in baking it from scratch,using the freshest of ingredients and their own recipe. Others favor something in the middle. Maybe starting with a mix, but doing the baking on their own.

Mastersball is most like the cake mix. You have to mix it up and put it in the oven, but we provide you with a mix using the best ingredients, just like you would have bought yourself. We may suggest recipes that we like, but at the end of the day, the time and temperature you cook is up to you. We may also make suggestions with respect to frosting, but that too is ultimately your choice.

Dammit, now I'm hungry.

[Bigperl]

I, too, am having trouble subscribing for the Mastersball Platinum Service. Looks like I will need Todd's help.

[ToddZ]

I, too, am having trouble subscribing for the Mastersball Platinum Service. Looks like I will need Todd's help.

I'll send you an e-mail....

[Winston's Empire]

After thinking long and hard about this, I will say that Mastersball.com is by far the best I have come across. They have updated content, news, and projections that are great. Todd has answered my questions in near real time and I honestly feel I have found something with them that will help me take the next step in my fantasy baseball skills.
Like I told Todd, I honestly didn't want to say this on these boards because I don't want my competition to get this info and tools, but a mans hard work should be recognized and it's clear to me that the staff at Mastersball.com works their butts off!
Well done fellas!