The statistic he likes is BABIP. I dislike BABIP and hardly look at it. It doesn't make sense to me.
I mean I get that it is based on batted balls in play, but to have a statistic that takes away home runs is like looking at a girl without looking at her cleavage.
Why leave out the best part?
The hitter hits the ball as hard as possible and is not rewarded on a stat?
Larceny!
But, I digress. I know that hard hit ball is not 'in play'.
Supposedly, BABIP is a stat that shows how a batter or pitcher may have been unlucky or lucky in obtaining their final batting average. My friend is a big believer that if a player strikes out little and had an abnormally small BABIP that the player is 'due' for a breakout the following year. One player he believes in for next year is Vernon Wells. Yeah, I did the same
that you just did. He told me that Vernon Wells had the lowest BABIP in the Major Leagues last year.My friend has best intentions. But, some players actually deserve their stats. Because a player has the lowest stat, any stat, it doesn't mean he has nowhere else to go but up. It might actually mean that he sucks. But, as Pee Wee Herman (Yeah, a Pee Wee Herman reference, what of it!) says, he made me look.
Along with having the lowest BABIP, Wells also had the lowest line drive percentage. That only makes sense.
Also, he had the lowest bb % and highest k% of his career last year.
Wow. Put all these things together and we do have a player that was abnormally bad last year. It makes me think that something was wrong with Wells. A hidden injury, a nasty divorce might explain it more than just numerish.
In the end, my friend may be right. Wells could bounce back next year. But I can't depend on one stat, especially BABIP, to be the deciding factor in evaluating a player. If Wells does bounce back my friend will give me 'I told you so's' up the ying yang. But, he'll be right for the wrong reasons.
