Love Drafts, Just Hate The Picks!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I go to every draft with a pen and notebook. The notebook contains the lists at each position of players I prefer.
Once I dabbled in different colors for names, such as green for speed, etc. But, I didn't like the way it looked.
It's the information age, but I've found too much information during a draft can be a bad thing.

There has never been a draft I have been just overjoyed with. I'll pick away at myself after each pick. It's not that I dislike the player selected, it's the situation and just my ocd kicking in of seeing the bad over the good in drafts. Let me give you an example of my thoughts during a draft...

1. I take Robinson Cano with the 11th pick....I've put myself immediately behind in the speed category. There is a lot of speed at 2b and I just missed out on it.
2. Nelson Cruz. I probably over picked him. Huge health issues, I might have to overdraft outfielders to make up for him missing games
3. Jeff Weaver. I could have made up for some speed here. Another four category player would have been nice.
4. Brian McCann. Catchers early are always a concern. McCann has never been a superstar, just consistent. I could have gotten my speed here or another ace to back Weaver. I may be even falling behind in power if Cruz gets hurt early.
5. Kevin Youkilis. Position flexibility and maybe the 'best player available' but I've just added health risk upon health risk...And still, no speed.
6. ARod. No more power concerns, but I've resigned myself to hoping the injury Gods smile on these players. And still no speed...

This was an actual draft by somebody I respect as a drafter, I just inputted my thoughts as if I'd been drafting.

I wish I could go in to one draft with a Gekko persona.
Bravado before ballbusting.
But, it's not in me.
The failings always stand out more to me than the small victories.
It's me and my notebook vs. the world.
David vs. not Goliath, but a pig farmer.
But, I'm guessing Lindy doesn't have the Gekko persona either.
Hell, I doubt if Gekko has the Gekko persona.
If so, he would make each pick in one second flat to put pressure on the next drafter.
I don't think that has happened.

Soon, we will be getting posts from folks asking us to grade their drafts.
It won't be me. I can beat myself up pretty well over a draft. I don't need help!
For those that think like me, this post is for you.
You're not alone.
Now, go kick yourself about that last pick.
There are sooo many things wrong with it.

[Gekko]

Hell, I doubt if Gekko has the Gekko persona.
If so, he would make each pick in one second flat to put pressure on the next drafter.
I don't think that has happened.

Dough - In slow drafts, picking in "one second" doesn't really put any pressure on opponents. they still have 10 hours to pick.

now, if i do a "one-night" draft, i will pick very quickly. i've done that this past football season and it worked beautifully. PRESSURE makes people do strange things

[DOUGHBOYS]

I know, Mark. I was talking of fast, even 'live' drafts in particular.
And I remember that being a weapon for you.
What are the most picks that you have made very quickly in a draft?
Also, do you look at your completed drafts with the Gekko theme of a fist pump and a 'Muhahaha'.
Or look for 'fixes' and 'if this happens' scenarios.? Or both?

[Gekko]

In most cases, I am not a fan of my drafts. I am a perfectionist at heart and am constantly striving to improve. Even though I may “hit my marks”, I am constantly thinking about how different players will impact my team makeup.

Even though I’m supremely confident in my abilities (see below), I know anything can and will happen. I don’t count anything as a success until the final game of the season is played.

I just completed my initial hitter evals and will transition to pitchers sometime this week. It’s awkward to put into words, but I’m starting to get the feeling that I’m winning draft day now. It likely won’t matter what any of my competitors do. That isn’t meant as bravado. More of a warning.

If I can stick with my plan, I will be ready to draft by January 17th. I am tweaking my offseason prep to culminate in finishing “in the money” in 100% of the leagues I play, while winning at least 33% of them. The key ingredient is “time input”. This year I have a monopoly on it (at least during the offseason).

[Likewhat17]

Some may take the confidence and bravado that Gekko brings to the table as arrogance, but I think that his supreme self confidence is a welcomed trait in these competitions.

I may not be as boastful about it, but I definitely possess that same swagger. I also agree with his assessment that draft day is won during off-season preparation. The only difference, is that while Mark aims to have his hitting and pitching evaluations done by January 17th, mine are already complete

[Gekko]

Basic Level of Prep IMO…
Major League Hitters
Research/Projections done on around 330 hitters. At an average of 5 minutes apiece, that’s 27 hours.

Major League Pitchers
Research/Projections done on around 250 pitchers. At an average of 5 minutes apiece, that’s 21 hours.

Minor League Hitters/Pitchers
Research/Projections done on around 120 hitters/pitchers. At an average of 5 minutes apiece, that’s 10 hours.

Major League Teams
Research major league teams. Include managerial changes/trends, ballpark changes, direction of team later in year, etc… Estimated at 10 hours

Create Draft Plan (incorporating ADP)
Estimated at 50 hours

Run Mock Drafts
Estimated at 5 hours

So far, at a minimum, we are up to 123 hours. This doesn’t count any time spent on keeping up with the daily news or re-tweaking your projections/draft plan. If you’ve already done all of this, kudos to you.

With that said, please post your first slow draft, and I will show you where you went wrong

[Glenneration X]

Mark, is that all the prep you do? For some reason, I always thought you dedicated a significant amount of time preparing for these drafts.

[Likewhat17]

Basic Level of Prep IMO…

With that said, please post your first slow draft, and I will show you where you went wrong

Because I actually do respect your opinions, I'll humor you.

This first one comes with the disclaimer though that it started during the MLB playoffs, and my prep work was NOT complete at this time. My 2nd draft (the slow draft we are currently participating in, will look even better)

I know there are a few major holes and weaknesses here, but I'd like to hear your opinion. I'm far more pleased with the first half than with rounds 16-30.

1.12 Joey Votto
2.04 Carlos Gonzalez
3.12 C.C. Sabathia
4.04 Jered Weaver
5.12 Pablo Sandoval
6.04 Michael Bourn
7.12 Miguel Montero
8.04 Derek Jeter
9.12 Chris Carpenter
10.04 Coco Crisp
11.12 Heath Bell
12.04 Jason Motte
13.12 Ike Davis
14.04 Johan Santana
15.12 Derek Holland
16.04 Dexter Fowler
17.12 Josh Willingham
18.04 Carlos Pena
19.12 Nick Hundley
20.04 Allen Craig
21.12 Juan Carlos Oviedo
22.04 Will Venable
23.12 Adam Laroche
24.04 Homer Bailey
25.12 Scott Sizemore
26.04 Jacob Turner
27.12 Orlando Hudson
28.04 Kyle Drabek
29.12 Jerome Williams
30.04 Robert Andino

[Schwks]

In 2010, I was in NY 4 with Mark. His draft style is not in your face or overly quick...more methodically nailing pick after pick with guys that returned value. Similarly he was a week ahead on quality FAAB pickups.

[Gekko]

Mark, is that all the prep you do? For some reason, I always thought you dedicated a significant amount of time preparing for these drafts.

that was the basic prep level, Glenn. i'm assuming most of my competitors are doing something close to that level.

with that a given in my mind, i will need to go above and beyond that. in quantitative terms, maybe double to triple that level...

[Glenneration X]

Mark, is that all the prep you do? For some reason, I always thought you dedicated a significant amount of time preparing for these drafts.

that was the basic prep level, Glenn. i'm assuming most of my competitors are doing something close to that level.

with that a given in my mind, i will need to go above and beyond that. in quantitative terms, maybe double to triple that level...

Wow, is that all? Ok. I thought you were going to prepare this year?

[Gekko]

i just spent about 2 hours looking over pitchers. does that meet your approval?

[Gekko]

Basic Level of Prep IMO…

With that said, please post your first slow draft, and I will show you where you went wrong

Because I actually do respect your opinions, I'll humor you.

This first one comes with the disclaimer though that it started during the MLB playoffs, and my prep work was NOT complete at this time. My 2nd draft (the slow draft we are currently participating in, will look even better)

I know there are a few major holes and weaknesses here, but I'd like to hear your opinion. I'm far more pleased with the first half than with rounds 16-30.

1.12 Joey Votto
2.04 Carlos Gonzalez
3.12 C.C. Sabathia
4.04 Jered Weaver
5.12 Pablo Sandoval
6.04 Michael Bourn
7.12 Miguel Montero
8.04 Derek Jeter
9.12 Chris Carpenter
10.04 Coco Crisp
11.12 Heath Bell
12.04 Jason Motte
13.12 Ike Davis
14.04 Johan Santana
15.12 Derek Holland
16.04 Dexter Fowler
17.12 Josh Willingham
18.04 Carlos Pena
19.12 Nick Hundley
20.04 Allen Craig
21.12 Juan Carlos Oviedo
22.04 Will Venable
23.12 Adam Laroche
24.04 Homer Bailey
25.12 Scott Sizemore
26.04 Jacob Turner
27.12 Orlando Hudson
28.04 Kyle Drabek
29.12 Jerome Williams
30.04 Robert Andino

Thank you. I will PM you tomorrow afternoon with some thoughts.

[Glenneration X]

i just spent about 2 hours looking over pitchers. does that meet your approval?

Depends. Considering your own calculations stated that you would put in 369 hours of prep, at 2 hours a day you should be done around the All-Star break.

I'd step it up my friend.

[Gekko]

Kowalski is doing half the prep, so your timeline needs to be revised

[DOUGHBOYS]

Kowalski is doing half the prep, so your timeline needs to be revised

Kowalski is a nobody.

[Gekko]

Kowalski is doing half the prep, so your timeline needs to be revised

Kowalski is a nobody.

Always has been

[Gekko]

Likewhat17 - I'm almost done with my eval. Keep in mind my only "educated comments" (if you want to call it that), will be on the hitter side. Pitchers I will be shooting from the hip a bit more

[Gekko]

Likewhat17 - PM sent

[TOXIC ASSETS]

Nobody can argue with Mark's sucess, but I can't imagine incorporating that kind of time to research players. My strategy is simple....pick good players and hope they have good years. Well it's actually a little more complicated than that, but there is so much that can go wrong AFTER draft day that 200 hours of prep won't fix...an injury to a key player (Josh Hamilton?), a suspension for steroids (Braun) or non -steroids (K Rod), a closer who has performed for years suddenly losing it (Brad Lidge). I go in with a basic strategy depending on where I am drafting and if there is 3RR. I decide if I'm punting a category...usually I am. And I run with it. One of the great things about this game...everyone has their own system.

[Gekko]

Ken - In my equation for fantasy baseball success, "time input" is the most significant variable. Some guys may be smarter than me, but I hope to even the playing field by outworking them.

[bjoak]

Interesting discussion in this thread. Not sure I can personally relate to a lot of it, though. If I am picking Cano in the first round, I have already thought about and made extensive plans on how to make up for the speed I am not getting. That isn't a situation where I'm saying, Gawd, I hope this works out. I have a plan of where my speed is coming from and I have several back-up plans if that doesn't work out.

Similarly, 27 or 28 times out of 30 I know exactly which guy I will take when my turn starts. If I'm at an end I know which two guys. In a satellite, where the computer manages my pre-rankings, I'll usually take my pick in a second or two. In a live draft I manage my pre-rankings and take a little longer. I could care less about screwing over the guy next to me. I don't want to help him either. I just don't care either way. I'm not sure how screwing him over is going to help me in the long run. He goes *after* me so if he keeps missing on the great players that are there then the other guys will keep reaping his benefits and their teams will be stronger. Or something. I'm just not sure how hurting one other guy is going to help me. At the same time, people draft way too slowly for my taste. I'm just trying to speed up the draft when I have something to say about it.

It's easy when you have extensive plans to guide your decisions.

[Likewhat17]

I agree with Mark that "time input" may be the most important variable to off-season preparation. It is one thing that is completely in the hands of the drafter, and how much you get out of it correlates directly with how hard you want to work.

Every year I see increased benefit from putting in as much extra work as possible, and will continue to do so again this year. I think where this extraordinary amount of work on individual player evaluations really pays off is in rounds 21-30. Hitting on 2-3 gems in these rounds can be the difference between winning your league or finishing 4th. Having a complete and in depth knowledge of the entire player pool, impact minor leaguers, etc. can give you a massive reward in the reserve rounds.

I also agree with Bojack that having extensive plans make the draft much easier when you are actually at the table. I try to plot out my entire draft beforehand, with contingencies for any and all situations that could arise during the draft. I may not end up with exactly the team I have laid out, but I damn sure finish with a team full of guys that I like and had at least planned on the possibility of them being there.

I even make sure to plot out at least the first 10 rounds of my draft from each of the 15 possible draft slots to see which I like best before setting my KDS settings. Some might call that excessive work also, but I believe that there is an added benefit to that exercise as well.