Slow Draft Postings Creating Draft Frenzy?

[Schwks]

I think at this time last year NFBC had a few completed Slow Drafts, and probably a few more in progress. This year with the blast off of the Slow Draft, and Greg's wetting our whistles with the first 6 rounds of some of these drafts, it would appear that frenzy is developing around certain players, driving their likely draft slots to possibly unsupportable levels.

Let's take the case of Desmond Jennings. The guy was a much anticipated call up for two straight seasons. He was finally called up in late July, 2012 to stay. He played two full months, August and September and posted some eye popping numbers.
In August, Jennings could not be stopped, batting .333 with ample home runs and SBs. In September, Jennings seemed either tired or a bit overmatched.

His Sept/October numbers were 106 ABs .160 2 hr 5 rbi 6 sbs 21 runs and 25 strike outs. Which of the months represents what Desmond will provide owners in 2012? Was August or Sept the anomaly? Did the league finally figure out how to pitch him? Was he tired and worn down?

Either way, we have a two month sampling, one brilliant and one troubling, at the best. Those who watched him in Sept.(I did) saw a guy who did not have much of a chance, especially down the stretch with the money on the line.

In Greg's first set of league postings, Jennings went earliest 59(end of 4th), latest 78(early 6th) with an average of 67.5(mid 5th)

Greg next posted after New Year's and he was drafted 54th(mid 4th), 60th(end 4th) and 49th(early 3rd).


Last week, the expert mock took place and Wiseguy took him at pick 31(1st pick 3rd round)

What happened here illustrates what is happening overall. After the first set if postings, those who wished to target Jennings looked at the ADP and said to themselves, I can no afford to wait on this guy, if I want to be sure to get him. Those who had draft picks at the beginning-middle of the third round, knew that he could very well be gone by the back half of the 4th round. SO Jennings started going in the third.

Wiseguy, if he was targeting Jennings, and had the drafts 30th and 31st picks, knew he would not pick again until pick 59 and 60. and there would be a good chance Jennings would be gone. So Wiseguy drafts him at pick 31. Now players drafting will be thinking to himself if I want him, I am going to have to draft him in round 2 possibly.

It is january. Spring training is still 6 weeks away. Yet a guy with a 50-50 record has moved from a late 5th round pick, down into possibly the 2nd round...elite territory. If Jennings performs closer to his August numbers, a 2nd round pick will yield solid returns. But if he is closer to Sept/October, teams drafting him in the second round could be looking at dead money.

Have the early, early season first six round draft postings created too much of a frenzy?

[BK METS]

I am in two slow drafts and I would not draft him that early, but it has been a surprise that Jennings has been going as early as he has. He went 48th (4-3) in my most recent draft... But this happens every year. There is hype about several players and it is causing them to go earlier than what was expected. Same thing is happening with Matt Moore and Brett Lawrie and just like real drafts in the NFL and MLB, there is hype that surrounds a player that causes that player to go higher than expected, since teams that really want him don't want to lose out. I like that the slow drafts really give us an idea of what might happen at the big live drafts. It is very helpful and this year especially with so many slow drafts happening so early.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Jennings went 31st overall to Gene McCaffrey in that Industry Draft: 3.1.

[Winston's Empire]

WOW! I guess I am really glad I got Jennings at 5.10 in the 1st $375 Slow Draft of the year, but I am a little sad it doesn't look like I will be getting him again in 2012. He was somebody I WAS truly targeting this draft season, but if he is going at 3.1 or earlier that would mean I would need to draft him in the first or second round based on where I will most likely be setting my KDS for the remainder of the season and THAT ISN'T HAPPENING!

Jennings is a very exciting young player, who I like a lot for helping me cash in the 1st $375 Slow Draft of 2011, where I drafted him at 15.1 for the steals.

Yes, he could be HUGE in 2012, but I will wait 6 or 7 more rounds now and grab Cameron Maybin

[duesman24]

Lets all hope he doesnt turn into BJ Upton LOL

[Hells Satans]

Jennings doesn't become a better player because he's being taken in the 3rd instead of the 5th. He just becomes less valuable.

[ToddZ]

For every player that rises, one must fall....

[Winston's Empire]

Jennings doesn't become a better player because he's being taken in the 3rd instead of the 5th. He just becomes less valuable.

Totally agree. I loved getting Jennings at 5.10 and think that is "fair" for what he will most likely deliver and / or could possibly deliver to the upside. There are just too many more sure picks for me in the first 4 rounds to take him there.
Butt as Todd Z said in this thread... When one rises, one falls!

[HGH]

Where can u access draft results of the leagues that have drafted already?
Schwks: How did u know the earliest and latest picks for Jennings?
@MarkusPotter

[Schwks]

Jennings was actually meant to be an example of how players are being bid upward earlier due to the postings on the early slow draft results. I agree with TZ that the drafter who is comfortable with his own projections, can benefit by staying above the noise created, which is I think what he meant by his post.

HGH Greg posted the first six rounds for several slow drafts in late December and early January on these boards, which is where I got the draft positions of Jennings.

[Winston's Empire]

Another guy I see slowly climbing the latter as the buzz continues to grow is Matt Wieters. He went 7.15 in my first $375 Slow Draft and 7.11 in my second $375 Slow Draft. As I look through the first 6 rounds of ongoing Slow Drafts, I see him climbing into the 5th Round now, as high as 5.12. Great young player, but the 5th Round really? Are last years injuries to Mauer and Posey pushing him up? Thoughts?

[ToddZ]

Another guy I see slowly climbing the latter as the buzz continues to grow is Matt Wieters. He went 7.15 in my first $375 Slow Draft and 7.11 in my second $375 Slow Draft. As I look through the first 6 rounds of ongoing Slow Drafts, I see him climbing into the 5th Round now, as high as 5.12. Great young player, but the 5th Round really? Are last years injuries to Mauer and Posey pushing him up? Thoughts?

Personally, I think the fact that V-Mart, Santana and Napoli are all going to do things other than catch, drops their ADP. Now factor in McCann and the aforementioned Posey and Mauer, plus how some like Miguel Montero to break out and there is a bit of a catcher panic. Wieters is caught in that vortex.

[Winston's Empire]

Another guy I see slowly climbing the latter as the buzz continues to grow is Matt Wieters. He went 7.15 in my first $375 Slow Draft and 7.11 in my second $375 Slow Draft. As I look through the first 6 rounds of ongoing Slow Drafts, I see him climbing into the 5th Round now, as high as 5.12. Great young player, but the 5th Round really? Are last years injuries to Mauer and Posey pushing him up? Thoughts?

Personally, I think the fact that V-Mart, Santana and Napoli are all going to do things other than catch, drops their ADP. Now factor in McCann and the aforementioned Posey and Mauer, plus how some like Miguel Montero to break out and there is a bit of a catcher panic. Wieters is caught in that vortex.

I would personally take all 7 of those catchers before Wieters. I think the fact that V-Mart, Santana, and Napoli all do things other than catch has to RAISE their ADP over the rest of these guys. They should get a few more AB's and can really focus on hitting, especially V-Mart since he won't be catching a single game this year, but is still C Eligible. I think if there is a vortex or catcher panic, that will settle down and guys like Wieters will fall back down just a bit.

[Lunatic]

Catchers and Closers really can drive one mad; when I have drafted a C early it has rarely panned out, when late (14th round and higher) they been very serviceable. Last year I drafted Marmol in round 6 which I thought was sweet and Kimbrel in 12 because I thought, get the possible ATL closer. I could have used the 6th round pick on offense and grabbed another closer after round 12 and there existed some guys who did well at closer after round 12.

On Matt Wieters, I believe he is going to have a good year, 7th round he returns a profit, 5th round could also do it or at worse, even money. For me, 5th round, I'll pass, 7th round, depends on what the draft I am in gives me.

My only Slow Draft, to date, which we completed before Thanksgiving, I took C in rounds 15/21 and Closer in rounds 8/11

[BK METS]

Another guy I see slowly climbing the latter as the buzz continues to grow is Matt Wieters. He went 7.15 in my first $375 Slow Draft and 7.11 in my second $375 Slow Draft. As I look through the first 6 rounds of ongoing Slow Drafts, I see him climbing into the 5th Round now, as high as 5.12. Great young player, but the 5th Round really? Are last years injuries to Mauer and Posey pushing him up? Thoughts?

Personally, I think the fact that V-Mart, Santana and Napoli are all going to do things other than catch, drops their ADP. Now factor in McCann and the aforementioned Posey and Mauer, plus how some like Miguel Montero to break out and there is a bit of a catcher panic. Wieters is caught in that vortex.

I would personally take all 7 of those catchers before Wieters. I think the fact that V-Mart, Santana, and Napoli all do things other than catch has to RAISE their ADP over the rest of these guys. They should get a few more AB's and can really focus on hitting, especially V-Mart since he won't be catching a single game this year, but is still C Eligible. I think if there is a vortex or catcher panic, that will settle down and guys like Wieters will fall back down just a bit.

I believe raising their ADP is what Todd meant.

[ToddZ]

semantics -- catchers in general are being drafted earlier, in lower numbered rounds (hence my use of drop, ADP DROPS from say 67 to say 45, etc.)

People see so many catchers going early, they panic, want to get it on the action and pick Wieters.

I call the philosophy "draft the player, not the round" and usually apply it to pitching, but the principle can be applied to any position that goes in "runs".

[Winston's Empire]

Ok, I thought thats what you meant Todd w/ the ADP... Anyways, so does it punish a guy for going after a position that is being run on and is becoming scarce, when there are clearly other players, at other positions that will deliver higher value / points in that round?

[Hells Satans]

i'm going to see if I can create a run on Jeff Francouer by drafting him in the 5th round of all my slow drafts