This Post Has No 'Value'

[bjoak]

The word 'value' itself implies getting something of worth.

I hate to stir it all up again when we've come to such a friendly understanding, but it *is* something of worth. If there was no worth to getting a guy after his adp, there would be no correlation between end of year results and adp, and there is most definitely a correlation, albeit a smaller one than some would like. If all your players that you got in rounds 10-30 were guys from rounds 1 and 2 who 'fell' that far for no particular reason, you'd win. Every time.

Now I agree that with individual picks (like Dunn), it is too early to know whether you got value and just trying to accrue 'value' as a draft strategy is a horrible idea, but saying it has no worth is taking it a bit far. In a general sense guys will return more value by the end of the season if you get them after their adp has passed.

BTW, I have never used 'value' with regards to adp, but I have used it in comparison to my internal numbers. I could give a $hit whether the wisdom of crowds agrees with my picks.

[rockitsauce]

Last night I did a 12 tm yahoo style mock. I don't like those as much as 15 tm, but my home league is only 12 and other than a couple thorns in my side (w/ NFBC exp.) the comp. is like what you'd expect from a yahoo crowd

So, its gettin late in the draft and a guy takes Logan Morrisson. The following are the responses on the chat box.

team A: Morrisson at 189...nice!!
team B: Solid Value.
me: (acting on Doughy's behalf ) define value.

[bjoak]

While I'm on it, there is very real value created *on draft day* by taking players later, even Adam Dunn. If you were going to take Dunn regardless but you got him in the 4th round instead of the third, you created a round of value for yourself. In other words, what would you rather Dunn + a 3rd round pick or Dunn + a 4th round pick. I think even Kenyon would prefer the 3rd round pick. I know you'd rather not have him at all, but waiting on him returns real value.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Lets start by saying that the adp, itself, is tainted. It'll be drawn from the slow drafts that are being waged now. I have a different strategy(s) in a 50 round draft than a 30 round draft. In 50 rounders, guys like Morneau, Morales, Utley, Roberts, Mauer, etc all take hits. They cannot be replaced by faab, so the injury prone drop back a little in adp while the players that as Yogi Bear, not Berra, said, 'Are stronger than the average bear' will have a better adp.

Since rookies have little track record of injury, their adp rises to a better number. Brandon Phillips will go higher because of a small injury factor. With faab as a crutch, more 30 rounders are inclined to have a go at a guy like Morneau hoping for a good roll of the dice. If not, no big deal, throw him back and try for a bigger fish. Since Morneau dropped back in 50 rounders, he'll be taken ahead of his adp in 30 rounders, somehow giving these drafters less 'value'. Not really, but that is the perception.

Slow drafts are also a feeding ground for first timers in the NFBC. This is where folks like to get their feet wet. The Sharks nibble or wait for the big bait that is the Main Events or big money events where they swim like Pirahna.

Now with different strategies for 50 rounders due to faab, or lack of, and less sharks in the waters, how strong is the adp to begin with?
There are more drafters than drafts and every draft is like a snowflake, all different.
Some follow adp, some target, some stick to a game plan, some construct, some positionalize. It all makes up the adp.
But if the adp itself is made up from 50 round drafts converted to 30, aren't we talking apples and oranges especially when hitting double digit rounds?

[Glenneration X]

BTW, I have never used 'value' with regards to adp, but I have used it in comparison to my internal numbers. I could give a $hit whether the wisdom of crowds agrees with my picks.

I like to travel with the sheep and always draft for ADP value from the 1st round to the 30th. Last year I drafted Pujols with the first overall pick and was disappointed that all I got was even value. From this point forward I will always set my KDS from 15 to 1 to assure that I'm never put in that position again. If the first 14 picks go exactly as per ADP, I will pass on my first pick at the turn to assure I am able to achieve value with the 2nd.

I also like to steal picks so look for me under a certain moniker.

[DOUGHBOYS]

BTW, I have never used 'value' with regards to adp, but I have used it in comparison to my internal numbers. I could give a $hit whether the wisdom of crowds agrees with my picks.

I like to travel with the sheep and always draft for ADP value from the 1st round to the 30th. Last year I drafted Pujols with the first overall pick and was disappointed that all I got was even value. From this point forward I will always set my KDS from 15 to 1 to assure that I'm never put in that position again. If the first 14 picks go exactly as per ADP, I will pass on my first pick at the turn to assure I am able to achieve value with the 2nd.

I also like to steal picks so look for me under a certain moniker.

I don't usually take a long time to draft, but I have thought about this loophole, and since Glenn brought it up....
If on a corner and the drafter takes more than 60 seconds, it goes to his second pick. Once the second pick is made, wouldn't that corner drafter get another 60 seconds to make his first pick?

[Glenneration X]

BTW, I have never used 'value' with regards to adp, but I have used it in comparison to my internal numbers. I could give a $hit whether the wisdom of crowds agrees with my picks.

I like to travel with the sheep and always draft for ADP value from the 1st round to the 30th. Last year I drafted Pujols with the first overall pick and was disappointed that all I got was even value. From this point forward I will always set my KDS from 15 to 1 to assure that I'm never put in that position again. If the first 14 picks go exactly as per ADP, I will pass on my first pick at the turn to assure I am able to achieve value with the 2nd.

I also like to steal picks so look for me under a certain moniker.

I don't usually take a long time to draft, but I have thought about this loophole, and since Glenn brought it up....
If on a corner and the drafter takes more than 60 seconds, it goes to his second pick. Once the second pick is made, wouldn't that corner drafter get another 60 seconds to make his first pick?

Not the response I was expecting to my facetious post, but since you asked.....

Copied and pasted from the rules......

"If a participant does not make a selection in the allotted time, he is passed over until the next participant makes a player selection. The passed-over participant follows after the next person's pick and again has one minute to make his/her pick."

I interpret that as a yes, the drafter gets another full minute to pick.

[Schwks]

I have never thought of fantasy "value" as getting a guy in a later round then his ADP. I always feel like it refers to a guy who his drafter feels will return numbers that exceed his draft slot. That is how I have always taken it.

[rockitsauce]

I don't usually take a long time to draft, but I have thought about this loophole, and since Glenn brought it up....
If on a corner and the drafter takes more than 60 seconds, it goes to his second pick. Once the second pick is made, wouldn't that corner drafter get another 60 seconds to make his first pick?

this happened to me when I was facilitating in AC back in '10. I announced the preceding pick, the guy up takes his full time and....pass. Uh....pass? No one told me one could do THAT. Believe it or not the guy who was passing knew the rule and explained to ME what was to happen next

As far as this post about value, ADP's and such what I can't understand is how MDC generates any useful data Their rankings are ridiculously pitching heavy. Today for the 1st time I saw an NFBC mock, was excited to draft w/ some of my fellow peeps. Too bad I got caught up w/ errands and got home later than expected. By the time I logged in it was the 11th rd. I was team 10 (cheeky monkey ) as you can see I was 'given' 8 pitchers in the 1st 10 rds. And the nuttiness wasn't just my team, scan that grid for a few, there are tons of SURPRISES

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft_g ... ?id=186462

[DOUGHBOYS]

I know your momma told you something close to this....
'Son, you have got to quit mocksturbating!'