Edwards Kings wrote:Greg and Tom,
Love the chats:
1) Last year was a peak year for the NFBC in terms of stolen bases (i.e. in the Main in 2004, it took 139 SB to garner 80% of available overall points in that category, and through climbing pretty steadily over the years, last year it took 181 to get the coveted 80%). Do you think this trend has peaked, will continue to climb, or will regress? And why?
2) Conversely, after two "Year of the Pitchers", guys hitting 30 HR are getting fewer and fewer (used to be able to count on at least 30 guys hitting 30 HR or more, but the last couple of years have averaged 21). Do you see any new blood on the horizon that have the ability and will get the opportunity to crack 30 HR this year?
3) Dave Duncan is taking a leave of absence to take care of his wife. That plus losing Pujols, how have you discounted the St. Louis pitching staff as a result?
4) I look out at the rosters of the NL West and no clear leader seems to present themselves as early favorites to win the division. Who do you like and how many games do you think it will take to win that division?
5) What are the odds that the winner of the Main Event comes from my league three years in a row?

I'll do my best here, but obviously I'm speculating as much as the next guy:
1. I think that we're now in the Post-Steroid Era and teams are back to scratching and clawing for every run, rather than waiting for the 3-run home run, so yes stolen bases will continue to be higher than they were in 2004. That being said, when I try to get 185 steals in these early drafts, I'm falling well below that mark. I'm not sure where all of these steals are coming from and my guess is that maybe some of us will just have to settle for 7-8 points in that category instead of 11-12. I'm not finding as many SBs as I'd like right now.
2. Sure, there are plenty of guys who will hit 30 HRs who didn't last year. Obvious guys who have done it in the past include Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez. But newbies could be Carlos Santana, maybe even Eric Hosmer or Freddie Freeman. I'd even like to see Billy Butler provide more lift because he could reach 25-30 soon. Paul Goldschmidt certainly has the potential to do it in Arizona and don't discount Matt Wieters, although 30 from any catcher is asking a lot. But yes, we have plenty of new stars who will reach 30 HRs in the next year or two.
3. I certainly won't discount the Cardinals' staff because of these developments, but it can't help. Talent is still talent and I don't see all of these guys forgetting how to pitch. But that being said, Mike Maddux's departure in Milwaukee caused more problems than I anticipated and his arrival was huge for the Rangers. Pitching coaches do matter and Duncan's departure could be more important than LaRussa's departure.
4. Arizona won last year's NL West with 94 wins and I was VERY impressed with them in the playoffs. That's a good, young squad that has some front-line pitching talent coming up. When the Dbacks call up all of their young starting pitchers, this team is going to battle for a World Series title. Seriously, it's going to happen soon. I'd have to pick Arizona, but if the Giants get any offense at all they could return to the top. I'll stick with those two teams.
5. 100% it's going to happen. You're a magnet to that $100,000 grand prize. Now you just have to find a way to get on the other side of that magnet Wayne.
