Greg A. Live Chat: Friday At 3 p.m. ET

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, I've enjoyed welcoming every new NFBC signup and filling up every new NFBC Slow Draft, but my job used to be as an editor and projecting baseball values and stats. Without my trusty Fantasy Baseball Magazine anymore, I miss that part of my old job. But that doesn't mean I have to stop the analysis from happening somewhere other than print.

Friday's are usually slow days on the Message Boards as you folks get ready for the weekend, but what the heck. Tom is out of the office for another week and I'm here to handle the load. I can do a Live Chat inbetween as well. Load me up with some questions online tonight and I'll peck away at them for a time and then be here for an hour tomorrow afternoon if anyone wants to ask questions live. Hopefully I can help with some baseball trends from the NFBC Slow Drafts and some analysis.

I'm losing the TV Ratings to Doughboys' Forum, but hopefully my Live Chat can reach NFC Championship Game levels!! It's time to pump up the volume on the General NFBC Discussion forum.

Okay, ask away and I'll dive in tomorrow. Thanks all. This is all for fun and no areas are off bounds.

[whipsaw]

which player's current ADP from the slow drafts gives you the biggest "wow that's to @#$%@# high" reaction?

[ChiScottieBaseball]

Greg, will the NFBC or NFFC ever have auction championships or auction satellites available for online drafts? I enjoy doing the live auctions drafts but obviously it is more convenient to do them from home...

Thanks!

[Fourslot40]

Greg,

Two future questions...

1 - Any possibility of expanding to a live location somewhere in the Southeast for 2013? Maybe.... Myrtle Beach?
2 - Others including myself have asked for a Fantasy Hockey game. Any possibility of getting that going for a potential season in 2012/13?

Thanks in advance.

John

[Oaktown]

How are you feeling about the launch of NFBC XII so far? Signups above or below your hope. Do you think the new game at the new price point will sell out?

[Doctor Who]

Two questions for you Greg.

1) What kind of starategies do you like to do at the auction table as far as how you bid or come up with a player to start the bidding on?

2) Who are you most likely to go after even though it is a player by player case, the "sophmore jinx" player or the "coming back from a major injury" player. Example, Adam Wainwright or Jeremy Hellickson... Just wanted to give an example, but mainly talking about everyone in both groups.

[Sack]

Greg:

Usually the $350 Online Championship starts out as a slow seller and then picks up steam to where you can't list the signups/new leagues fast enough. Looking at the Sign Up Forum, it seems that this is once again the case. When does the light switch turn to ON for this event and will you be pumping this game up anytime soon to help the ball start to roll in the right direction?

Enough interest in the NCAA Final Four Party on Main Event day for you to try and put something together at the
Bellagio?


Does Charlie Wiegert know he was "safer" sticking to the Friday night NFBC XII event then coming after his old
CDM customer on a Saturday night in St Louis?

[Edwards Kings]

I have never liked drafting or buying a DH-type in fantasy baseball. Seems to limit roster flexibility. However, last year, only half the AL teams had a guy play 100+ games as DH and three of those played enough games at a position to qualify there (VMart, Abreu, Matsui) and only one (Butler) was younger than 32. There are only about 14 players listed as UT-only for the NFBC and only a hand full of those will get 500+ AB.

All of that to ask this...in your opinion, are we seeing a more concerted trend to fewer full time DH so that teams can use the spot to rest players like what might be happening in LA, New York, or even Detroit or Baltimore? Or is this the decline of the DH as a position so that the AL may dump it all together?

[Edwards Kings]

Aviles as the primary shortstop in Boston? Punto for depth? Really? The Braves are seemingly willing to give Pastornicky the shot this year, will Boston end up doing the same with Iglesias? Or do you think Boston will trade for a one-year rental (and if so, have you heard any rumors)?

[Greg Ambrosius]

which player's current ADP from the slow drafts gives you the biggest "wow that's to @#$%@# high" reaction?

Sorry for the delay in these answers. I got caught in some meetings this morning and then these damn pesky signups get in the way of a guy's writing!! Can we give it a rest guys?

Just kidding. Keep 'em coming. I'll do my best to keep up on the Signup List.

Okay, onto the questions at hand and feel free to send in some more. I'll spend the next hour or so just on this thread.

I will admit that from the beginning of our pay drafts the biggest surprise to me was Brett Lawrie. I knew his MLB debut would get people excited, but from the beginning he's been a 4th-5th round pick and now he's basically secure in the 3rd round. I mean, his early ADP is 47, but he's continually going between the 31st and 43rd picks from what I can see. And don't get me wrong, I know how thin the third base position is (before Miggy qualifies, that is), but I just never expected this former Brewer to jump this high this fast.

Think about it, how many guys with 43 games in the majors are going in the Top 45 in fantasy drafts? Rarely ever. He just turned 22 earlier this month and a year ago he was at Double-A for the Brewers trying to learn a new position so that he could play alongside Rickie Weeks. The deal was a smart one for both organizations as the Brewers got a pitcher (Shaun Marcum) who helped them win the NL Central Division title last year and is an important part of their plans this year. Lawrie, on the other hand, is now an emerging star from Canada who has five-tool skills for the hometown team.

Still, fantasy baseball owners usually need more evidence of superstardom before jumping in this early. So I must admit, while I also like him and love his 43-game debut (.293-9-25 with 7 SBs in 8 chances and 26 runs), I personally need to see more. I know how pitchers adjust to hitters after seeing them the first time and for me, it's just too early. I'm sure I'll be proven wrong, but right now I know that Brett Lawrie won't be on any of my teams because he's just too unproven for me with where he's going. Again, I'm probably wrong, but my third-rounders must be drinking age before I take them.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg, will the NFBC or NFFC ever have auction championships or auction satellites available for online drafts? I enjoy doing the live auctions drafts but obviously it is more convenient to do them from home...

Thanks!

No, not until we either build an auction software or find a partner who can provide that software and I don't see that happening anytime soon. I think ESPN and Yahoo have fantastic auction softwares, but we don't partner with them and there's no way we're building our own auction software anytime soon. Yes, I love auctions too and I've done as much as I can to promote the Auction Championship format -- which nobody else offers -- but we don't have the tools in place for online auctions. So no, I don't see that happening anytime soon for the NFBC or NFFC.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,

Two future questions...

1 - Any possibility of expanding to a live location somewhere in the Southeast for 2013? Maybe.... Myrtle Beach?
2 - Others including myself have asked for a Fantasy Hockey game. Any possibility of getting that going for a potential season in 2012/13?

Thanks in advance.

John

Well, the key for us is stability after the many changes we went through from 2009-11. We have stabilized the back-end software, we've stabilized the two-weekend live events in the same locations, and we're enhancing our software now for baseball and football. Expansion would be at least a year off if at all. While nobody would like to go to Myrtle Beach in March more than this golf addict, I think if we ever do expand to the South it would be around a spring training site in Florida. I know we didn't explode in Florida, but I'd take 3-4 leagues there now if we found the right venue. We aren't talking about expansion, but I do believe that one more location in the South for baseball and football has merit if the costs can be better controlled. We'll see what happens this next year and then make some smart decisions, but right now nothing is in the immediate plans.

[Greg Ambrosius]

How are you feeling about the launch of NFBC XII so far? Signups above or below your hope. Do you think the new game at the new price point will sell out?

I'm very excited that 62 owners right now are doing both Main Events and I hope that more NFBC veterans continue to support this debut event. I think as we establish this 12-team Main Event you'll see it become a tradition in Las Vegas to draft the NFBC XII on Friday and the Main Event on Saturday, or in Chicago, New York and St. Louis to draft both events on Saturday. I'm trying to establish that tradition, something we already have in football.

Would I like more signups right now? Sure, who wouldn't? Can we sell out all 300 spots in Year 1? It might be tough, but we'll do all we can. Honestly, I originally built the model on 240 teams, but having this grand prize being lower than the Online Championship made that a tough sell. So we're shooting for a higher level and hoping for the support. I hope that as we get closer to Draft Day that more veterans see the prospects of winning both Main Events and possibly pocketing $225,000 and add an NFBC XII team. Listen, Lindy did it in a much tougher format with 500+ Online Championship teams, so beating less than 300 teams in the same 12-team format is definitely doable.

I do hope that people understand why we are working so hard to make the NFBC XII a success. For one thing, we do want to provide more affordable live events for you guys after you take the time and effort and money to fly to one of our draft locations. In the past, it was really paying as much for travel as an entry in the Main Event and for some folks that's the only league they did. Now with the Auction Championship and the NFBC XII, we have some other options to keep you busy on those weekends.

I also believe strongly that most people play 12-team formats and thus this is more commonplace for them than a 15-team format. We've certainly grown the Main Event well beyond my expectations, but it would have been silly for me to never offer a more common 12-team Main Event or 12-team satellite leagues. I believe that down the road the 12-team format will exceed our 15-team levels, yet at the same time our signature event will ALWAYS be our premiere Main Event. The person who wins that has REALLY earned it in that tough, tough format.

Anyway, I'm not about to let someone else create the ideal 12-team format!! We're taking the lead and starting from scratch with this format. I like what we have and with your support we'll build this into a very successful addition to everything else we're doing. I believe in it and I'm sticking my a** on the line for it. Hopefully many of you believe in it too. If we add our die-hards in with the new 12-team arrivals, we should get close to our goals.

[Edwards Kings]

Greg,

Now that he is signed, do you expect Yu Darvish to move up the boards? Or will there be a "wait for spring training" mentality?

Also, do you see a Liriano rebound, or am I smoking something?

[Ando]

Greg,

My question revolves around the Live Draft experience. First off, congratulations for winning the FSWA award for best live draft. A nice feather in your and STATS' cap. Although I have to admit, the first question I asked myself is 'what was the competition?' After the death of your bankrupt competitor, I can't even come up with anything that compares to your product by any stretch of the imagination. On the flip side, I haven't looked either. This is my 3rd year with you and you got the best show in the business in my humble opinion.

It is obvious that the online facet of your business is taking off in flying colors. There's so many slow drafts going on it's gotta be hard on your end to keep up with them! I would venture to guess that the explosion there would be considered a pleasant surprise. In additon, you have the Online Championship plus the addition of drafting a Main Event or XII team online. Great options, and I'm sure the participation figures in those areas are satisfying to you as well.

Which brings me to my question (finally!). Do you feel like you need to push/sell/promote the live draft experience that you offer more aggresively? From your seat, is there a concern that the rise and convenience of online drafting will take so much and so many people away from the live draft experience that is will lose its popularity and/or signifigance? Has there been discussions about how to make the live draft experience more attractive to the high stakes fantasy player?

I have had the pleasure to draft with you in Vegas the past two years at the Bellagio. Love the hotel, love the space you have rented, the facilitators, the food, drink, everything. All great. I have had the great opportunity to meet some fantastic people over that time as well. I may be of the minority nowadays, but I get about as much of a kick of meeting people and shooting the breeze as I do drafting my team. I'm hitting St. Louis up this year and already can't wait to meet the likes of Eric Albright, Kent Stermon, and the legend called The Sack of Potatoes - as well as the others who will be there that day.

Deep down, I just have a feeling the Live experience is losing its appeal to an extent and wonder if you felt the same way.

Thanks for taking the time here. I know this wasn't a 'softball question', but want you to know that I'm not trying to be harsh critic or trying to take anything away from what you have done. I love this place and just thought I'd pick your brain at an area that means alot to me (live drafting) and that I believe there exists a great potential for growth and opportunity.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Two questions for you Greg.

1) What kind of starategies do you like to do at the auction table as far as how you bid or come up with a player to start the bidding on?

2) Who are you most likely to go after even though it is a player by player case, the "sophmore jinx" player or the "coming back from a major injury" player. Example, Adam Wainwright or Jeremy Hellickson... Just wanted to give an example, but mainly talking about everyone in both groups.

1. I think I've said this before, but the nomination strategy changes depending on your money situation. At the beginning, it's very possible that I will nominate a player I want to see how much it takes to get him and see if an early bid can get in cheaper than expected. Or I might want to get some of the top stars out there early who I don't want to establish some price levels and get some money out of the game. It's always good to have the most money, so many times I nominate players I don't want. I'd say more times I nominate players I don't want than want.

2. I don't really worry about any Sophomore Jinx theory because if they are good enough they'll battle through the different ways pitchers are going after them. I usually stay away from pitchers coming back from major injuries, but lately we've seen how pitchers are rebounding so much better than in the past from surgeries like Tommy John Surgery. Wainwright has been out a full year now and I wouldn't shy away from him at the right spot in the draft. Chris Carpenter certainly rebounded well in 2009 and was a bargain that year and Wainwright could do the same thing.

[whale4evr]

Greg,
Any plans on reviving the magazine at some point? Missed it the last couple of years.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg:

Usually the $350 Online Championship starts out as a slow seller and then picks up steam to where you can't list the signups/new leagues fast enough. Looking at the Sign Up Forum, it seems that this is once again the case. When does the light switch turn to ON for this event and will you be pumping this game up anytime soon to help the ball start to roll in the right direction?

Enough interest in the NCAA Final Four Party on Main Event day for you to try and put something together at the
Bellagio?


Does Charlie Wiegert know he was "safer" sticking to the Friday night NFBC XII event then coming after his old
CDM customer on a Saturday night in St Louis?

Kenny, the reason the Online Championship signups start out slow is because I really believe people are unsure of their night-time schedules in March and early April. I mean, it's tough to pick March 24th at 9 pm and commit to it when something with the family can come up. So I totally understand how the Online Championship starts out slow and then picks up steam in March when people have a better grasp on their family situations and open nights.

But we are preparing for a much, much easier way for owners to track the number of openings in all of our events, but especially the Online Championship and Satellite Leagues. We are creating a Registration landing page that will be tied up with our signups and the number of available spots for each event will automatically be updated after they come in. This will allow all of you to better track the number of openings and to jump into an almost full league at a moment's notice. You can see how the countdown to a full league already pushes demand from the way I'm doing it on the Message Boards and this new landing page will provide a very easy-to-read format for all of our contests.

This is almost done, I'm told, and should be fully tested next week. Look for it soon.

One of the advantages of this new landing page is that I think we will keep Online Championship offerings open longer and maybe fill some last minute leagues more easily. We've often shut these off 5-7 days after they've filled, but going forward I think we may keep these open longer and even fill them up on the day of the draft. Even with KDS, we can still fill these leagues, run KDS, and get them set up in the same day. We all know that the OC's can become impulse buys in football with a bigger grand prize and I think that may be the case in baseball as well.

Again, I feel very confident that March will be an insane month of signups for the Online Championship and the Satellite Leagues and with the later MLB start we even have into April to fill up leagues. I know we're going to reach 600 teams and go beyond that total this year. This 12-team format deserves it's own prize payout -- adding the Live Double Play the last 2 years just confused owners -- and I'm really excited to take this contest to a $50,000 grand prize and even to $100,000 in a few years. I really believe that will happen.

Look for that new Registration landing page soon. It will be the best addition we've had in years.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Enough interest in the NCAA Final Four Party on Main Event day for you to try and put something together at the
Bellagio?


Does Charlie Wiegert know he was "safer" sticking to the Friday night NFBC XII event then coming after his old
CDM customer on a Saturday night in St Louis?

Oops, I forgot to answer the other two questions.

1. Yes, I want to do the Saturday Night Party. I'm just still waiting on AV quotes and other price quotes from the Bellagio. But it's in the plans.

2. You know Charlie, his schedule is always changing. He said he has a business meeting now on Friday night and secondly he doesn't believe you're actually coming to St. Louis just for the NFBC XII. So he's in for that night for sure and there are other owners still looking at that one. I have a feeling we may fill that just with St. Louis drafters when all is said and done. Enjoy and have fun with my buddy Charlie.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I have never liked drafting or buying a DH-type in fantasy baseball. Seems to limit roster flexibility. However, last year, only half the AL teams had a guy play 100+ games as DH and three of those played enough games at a position to qualify there (VMart, Abreu, Matsui) and only one (Butler) was younger than 32. There are only about 14 players listed as UT-only for the NFBC and only a hand full of those will get 500+ AB.

All of that to ask this...in your opinion, are we seeing a more concerted trend to fewer full time DH so that teams can use the spot to rest players like what might be happening in LA, New York, or even Detroit or Baltimore? Or is this the decline of the DH as a position so that the AL may dump it all together?

Absolutely this is a trend away from fulltime DH's. The end of the Steroid Era means that older ballplayers are aging like they always did: BADLY. There's very little need to keep the high-priced veteran DH just for his bat unless he's a game changer like David Ortiz. The steroids are gone and those 38-year-old DH's are no longer productive. Gone.

Sorry Wayne, as much as you want the DH to be abolished, it's never going to happen. The MLBPA union will NEVER let that happen. The DH still keeps a lot of their veteran players employed and making insane dollars. It's not going away because the MLBPA will never let it go away. Plain and simple.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Aviles as the primary shortstop in Boston? Punto for depth? Really? The Braves are seemingly willing to give Pastornicky the shot this year, will Boston end up doing the same with Iglesias? Or do you think Boston will trade for a one-year rental (and if so, have you heard any rumors)?

I agree, this Boston off-season has been weird to say the least. Right from the last month of the season through the Francona firing to the Theo departure, it's been weird. And some of their player moves have been curious, too. I do believe they will try to live with Aviles and Punto at shortstop this year and not deal for a one-year rental. It doesn't seem like enough to contend with the Yankees or Rays, but I do believe the organization is buying time until Iglesias is ready and then he will be their defensive shortstop until Red Sox Nation gets sick of his .220 average.

Seriously, does anyone in Red Sox Nation believe that Iglesias can hit enough to keep the detractors off him? Yes, he has a fantastic glove, but c'mon. The Red Sox can't live with his weak bat for the next decade, can they? He's 5'11" (yeah, right) and 175 pounds with a slap stick to the opposite field. He hit .235-1-31 with 12 stolen bases at Triple-A Pawtucket last year. He can save some runs defensively, but I'm not sure you can hide him in the 9th hole forever.

This will be interesting. I think they are building this team with Iglesias in mind, but he better hit above his weight to prove the move correct.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,

Now that he is signed, do you expect Yu Darvish to move up the boards? Or will there be a "wait for spring training" mentality?

Also, do you see a Liriano rebound, or am I smoking something?

As I wrote in this week's column, you can already see a Darvish move up the boards. He's going one full round ahead of where he was going before the signing and 2-3 rounds ahead of where he was going before Texas won the posting. I'm not sure he will go much higher than he is now -- 6th round and a rare sighting in the 5th round -- but that's still pretty high for a player few of us have ever seen pitch live. Like you said, though, if he is lights out in spring training he could move up slightly, but I think where he is now (104th overall, 96th and 81st the last 3 NFBC drafts) is about what we can expect until March's spring training games start.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,

My question revolves around the Live Draft experience. First off, congratulations for winning the FSWA award for best live draft. A nice feather in your and STATS' cap. Although I have to admit, the first question I asked myself is 'what was the competition?' After the death of your bankrupt competitor, I can't even come up with anything that compares to your product by any stretch of the imagination. On the flip side, I haven't looked either. This is my 3rd year with you and you got the best show in the business in my humble opinion.

It is obvious that the online facet of your business is taking off in flying colors. There's so many slow drafts going on it's gotta be hard on your end to keep up with them! I would venture to guess that the explosion there would be considered a pleasant surprise. In additon, you have the Online Championship plus the addition of drafting a Main Event or XII team online. Great options, and I'm sure the participation figures in those areas are satisfying to you as well.

Which brings me to my question (finally!). Do you feel like you need to push/sell/promote the live draft experience that you offer more aggresively? From your seat, is there a concern that the rise and convenience of online drafting will take so much and so many people away from the live draft experience that is will lose its popularity and/or signifigance? Has there been discussions about how to make the live draft experience more attractive to the high stakes fantasy player?

I have had the pleasure to draft with you in Vegas the past two years at the Bellagio. Love the hotel, love the space you have rented, the facilitators, the food, drink, everything. All great. I have had the great opportunity to meet some fantastic people over that time as well. I may be of the minority nowadays, but I get about as much of a kick of meeting people and shooting the breeze as I do drafting my team. I'm hitting St. Louis up this year and already can't wait to meet the likes of Eric Albright, Kent Stermon, and the legend called The Sack of Potatoes - as well as the others who will be there that day.

Deep down, I just have a feeling the Live experience is losing its appeal to an extent and wonder if you felt the same way.

Thanks for taking the time here. I know this wasn't a 'softball question', but want you to know that I'm not trying to be harsh critic or trying to take anything away from what you have done. I love this place and just thought I'd pick your brain at an area that means alot to me (live drafting) and that I believe there exists a great potential for growth and opportunity.

I think everyone in the NFBC knows that Tom and I will do everything we can to protect the live draft experience. We have no intention of ever making this an Online-only contest and neither does STATS. Yes, it's VERY expensive today compared to 2004 when we started to host live drafts because the venues keep asking for more. That being said, we've also chosen more high-profile venues and the space we need to run these live drafts if our numbers are strong is more expensive than ever before.

But like you said, there is nothing like meeting like-minded baseball die-hards at a live event. I was talking with an NFBC veteran last week about this very same point. At our ages -- and yes I'm in my 50's like many of you -- where else are we going to find a community of like-minded people who want to sit down and talk baseball and baseball experiences with us? Where else can you lose yourself with a bunch of new friends over baseball talk like a live event? We're all too old to make new friends, but come to one live event and you'll leave with a dozen or more new friends and their contact information to stay in touch with them.

Still, we probably need to do more. We need to add an NFL Viewing Party to our live draft in Las Vegas this year...AND WE WILL. This year presents the chance to provide an NCAA Final Four Viewing Party in Las Vegas...and I think we will do that. We've added the Auction Championship that you can't do online. We still charge Events Fees Online like we do live events. We've added the NFBC XII to give people more live events when they spend so much to travel to them.

I totally understand that the genie is out of the bottom for just offering live events. Once others allowed the Online component for Main Events, there was no turning back. That wasn't me, by the way. But with the economy turning sour, it needed to be done or some people couldn't play at all. We need to give folks options and at the end of the day sometimes there's no other way to play than online. But given the choice, there is NOTHING like the experience of a live draft. I think we all agree to that. And by adding a sports viewing party, maybe it will be too good to resist in 2012.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,
Any plans on reviving the magazine at some point? Missed it the last couple of years.

Nobody misses Fantasy Sports Magazine more than me. It was my first baby!!

Unfortunately, I don't see an appetite for reviving the magazine. Liberty Sports Interactive still owns the rights to it and even if we wanted to start a new magazine it doesn't make financial sense. The advertising environment for print is ZERO and printing costs continue to rise. I applaud everyone who produces a print title right now, but unfortunately for us it just doesn't make financial sense.

That being said, our number 1 driver of new NFBC and NFFC signups each year was Fantasy Sports Magazine. When that magazine hit the newsstands, our phones began ringing and signups began coming in. Putting our $100,000 champion on the cover of each issue also was a fantastic promotional tool. So I badly miss it.

But we do have ads in 3 different magazines and all 3 have a feature story on our 2011 champion Lindy Hinkelman: Rotowire.com, Rotoworld.com and Fantasy Baseball Guide. We hope those three magazines, which hit newsstands in mid-February, will bring in those same new customers. And we have another promotional vehicle that we hope comes to fruition that will be even bigger than the magazine. So we are planning to use our resources -- Tom and me -- in a different way soon and I know you'll all approve.

[southpaw23]

I haven't been around NFBC/NFFC long enough to know if you've answered this question before but I've often wondered what your facilities are like where you and Tom work. Do you lease office space? Do you often work from home? Do you have technical staff? Research staff? Or is all that done through Stats?
What's a typical day like in the NFBC/NFFC offices?
Just curious....