Top 10 Picks for Busting 2012

[DOUGHBOYS]

The one constant that was written about Adam Dunn by EVERYBODY before the 2011 season was that it was almost a guaranteed 35-40 homers.The average was the risk. Thoughts of going to Comiskey (sorry, old school) made dreams of 45 or even 50 home runs dance in drafters heads. Of course, those dreams turned to nightmares as Adam turned to Eve.

In this post, I will give the TOP 10players who will not play up to their rounds taken in NFBC drafts. I don't look at adps, but I do have a pretty good understanding of where most players are being taken from previous drafts.
Also, I'm not picking any Johnny McDonalds here. These are all players who are being drafted heavily, unlike Johnny or his brother, Ronald.
Alright, here we go....

1. Prince Fielder-
I've seen it happen before, a slugger goes to the American League and flops. Fielder is a masher, no doubt about it. He hit 38 bombs last year. That is good for the fifth best in baseball. Coincidentally, Adam Dunn hit 38 home runs in 2010 and finished fourth in baseball. No comparisons between Fielder and Dunn are needed. They only share brute strength as a common denominator. But both, a year apart will be going through the same thing.
Fielder was a home hitter. He hit .326 at home with 24 homers in the friendly confines of Bernie Brewer. Nine of those home runs would have been caught or off the fence at Comerica. When we think of a Fielder home run, we think of a massive blow. But, he also hits those screaming line drives that do not get much elevation.
Prediction- .265/70/25/85/0 year for him. Well below his draft round.

2. Brett Lawrie-
In the third round now, Lawrie is almost making this too early. Lawrie has Ryan Braun Syndrome. Drafters do not want to miss out on the early year that Braun had, so they pick Lawrie. Lawrie has never played more than 135 games in a season and flies around the field like a pinball. He could be all that and a sack of Doritos too, but he's gonna get hurt. In your heart, you know it. He's a kid who doesn't play to stay healthy. Nope, he's a balls to the wallser type guy, who will do anything to show how good he is. The talent in undeniable, but even the most talented of 3b have still not found a way to fill our categories from the bench.
Prediction- At least one stint on the dl. If it's a short one, two.

3. Tommy Hanson-
Already saddled with injury concerns, the Braves and Hanson choose this year to change his delivery.
Will the injury manifest itself anyway?
Can Hanson be effective with the new style?
Will other parts of his body be effected by the release point?
These are questions I only want answered if Hanson is on another fantasy team.
Prediction: Half a season's starts.

4. Carl Crawford-
You knew this one was coming, right?
Crawford had a great off season....Well, he must have because drafters are willing to pick him up in a draft again.
Truth is, Crawford is worse off than last year. Last year, he was healthy heading to Boston and would either hit first or second in their lineup. Now, he'll be lucky to hit sixth when coming back from injury.
Crawford lovers always think the next year is the year his power breaks out. The wrist effects power and folks forget that Crawford has never hit more than 19 home runs EVER.
Prediction: Last year or worse

5. Drew Stubbs-
Drew Stubbs is a fantasy baseball player. Much like Alfonso Soriano before getting older. They have more value for fantasy rosters than their real life rosters. Stubbs is fast. THAT, is his main contribution to real baseball. He strikes out more than the Elephant Man in a bar. His home runs are almost always meaningless. He's a poor hitter with runners on the bases. And, despite the speed, he is a below average center fielder.
Prediction: Minor leagues, traded, or benched.

6. Mike Napoli-
C'mon, you know he's not THIS good. Napoli has had his fun. The average goes kaput and he turns from the Napoli of 2011 to the Napoli of old. Sure, the power is real and he'll keep banging homers. Heck, he's led catchers in homers two years in a row.
But, he comes into this season still recovering from the World Series and the effects of long seasons show most on catchers and pitchers.
Prediction: Less in every category, especially average.

7. Alex Rodriguez-
You may say that, 'What? His value (ugh, remember this is you, not me) has already been lowered!'
Well, not enough!
I don't believe in older athletes who lived off steroids during the era. Coming down from that high is tough for all of them. So tough, that some will defy the system and try them again.
ARod would be the player that I would be the least surprised at testing positive for a PED.
Ailing? Check!
Older? Check!
Ego? Check!
I won't go on to predict a 50 game penalty, but I think ARod depended on Mothers Little Helper more than we know.
Prediction: ARod plays in 75 games.

8. Addison Reed-
Last year it was that kid from Tampa. What was his name again?
Yeah, you forgot too, right?
His name was Jake McGee and he was gonna close games for Tampa straight from the minors.
A funny thing happens to fellas like this. Their Manager decides they don't want to risk THEIR jobs by putting the closer job in the hands of a rookie.
I doubt that Robin Ventura will feel any differently.
Prediction: Reed = McGee

9. Hanley Ramirez-
Maybe I have him pegged wrong. The talent from the shoulders on down is wonderful. A ninety cent body and a ten cent head. My perception of Hanley is of a player that when he wants to do something, he'll do it. Only, it has to be at his pace, of his decision, and if a Manager or player is there to tell him how wonderful he is.
Hanley has always been the BIG Man on Campus for the Marlins. Since Stanton and Morrison and now Reyes and Ozzie have come in to steal his spotlight, Hanley will be Hanley. I don't think it'll be good.
Prediction: A trade could take him out of this top 10. If not, a lot of games missed and a lot of sulking. You will not want to own him.

10. Roy Halladay-
Surprise!
I know, he's bullet proof, right?
Coming down the stretch last year, Doc turned from superHuman to mere human.
He works so hard and is such a master, that this is the only player that I truly hope I'm wrong about.
I love everything about Halladay, just as I loved everything about Willie Mays as he aged.
But age is the one common enemy that has defeated every player who ever took the field....well, except Jamie Moyer.
Prediction: 15 wins and just ok peripherals, the beginning of the end.


So, there you have it.
Shoot away! Surely I've taken a shot at somebody you drafted. Heck, I've taken a shot at myself, one of these players fell enough ina league to where I even took him (Stubbs). Bad mojo for me!

Any way, who are your decliners for 2012 or where am I wrong in my predictions.
Lets have it!

[bjoak]

He strikes out more than the Elephant Man in a bar.

Excellent article and very well written. While I don't agree with every prediction or reason, I do agree that all ten are too highly, er, worthed.

I'll play a bit.

Evan Longoria

I know, really. He's a good guy. He makes great commercials. No, I love him too, really I do. He's a good player who always seems on the verge of busting out. But enough is enough. The fact that he has not yet turned in a first round performance has not deterred people from taking him in the first round after three years.

Prediction: Another solid late second round performance.

David Wright

Can I just say, 'nuff said? How is this guy still a somebody? And if you're buying into the even numbered year theory, just remember that superstitions are just beliefs born in the absence of knowledge (and logic).

Prediction: There's always next year.

Justin Verlander

I am a die hard for peripherals. The peripherals just did not agree with the results. He was good, not great. Also, his arm is past due for falling off. And then there's the Detroit defense.

Prediction: The grocery clerk, Tommy John, will come to collect his bill.

Jared Weaver

Ibid, with the exception of the arm falling off and the defense.

Prediction: His 2009.

Dan Uggla

Man was I excited to do this guy's projection. His average will rebound to the usual .250 level even while he piles up homers. And now that he had a crap year I will be able to get him in the 11th or 12th round. But then, while perusing the first six rounds of slow drafts I see him in the 4th round. Misprint! It has to be! Nope there he is again and again.

Prediction: I think I am looking at the same .250/31/1 that everyone else is. Go figure.

Joe Mauer

Last year I was dumbfounded that people would take him so high. Now that he had a typical season that his former back-up Redmond would have, his draft position is...maybe a little better?

Prediction: More crappy power with an average below .300 and a smattering of injuries thrown in.

Paul Konerko

22 homers in the first half last year and 9 in the second. He's a year younger than me. I'm not that young.

Prediction: The end is now.