Greg Ambrosius wrote:Okay, Todd, I'll start you out. Get ready for these questions:
Out of respect for those generous enough to be subscribing to my little web site, I will not give out the exact projection, but I will answer the questions. Please keep in mind that one should really not consider a projection to be a static set of numbers, but rather a weighted average of the most probable outcomes.
What's your projection for Carl Crawford and how many at-bats are you forecasting?
With respect to the at bats, there are two issues that make it particularly tough. I have him around 500, close to what he got last year. The first issue is the wrist and how long he takes to recover, does he spend time in extended ST, does he rehab at Pawtucket, etc. Then there is the matter of where he hits in the order. Over the course of 162 games, as you move down in the order, you lose 15-20 plate appearances. The difference (full season) between 2nd and 6th is about 70 PA, that's pretty significant. Had he been healthy, it would not have shocked me if Bobby V gave him a chance to regain a spot at the top, but now unless someone is struggling when he comes back, he is likely to be 6th or 7th and will have to work his way back up.
For a projection, I see an average in the .280 range, but I am worried about power (ask Rick Wilton about that) so maybe high single to low double digits? He'll want to contribute, so I do see him running, getting at least 30 bags.
Thoughts on Miggy possibly trying to play third base? Good for his fantasy value or bad for injury risk?
I know it is counter intuitive, but the switch to 3B alone does not at all impact his value from a strict valuation sense since the value is based off of the replacement level player and that is about the same. It may add a buck or two in an auction format, but he was already #1 on my draft list, can't get much higher than that.
That said, I am not worried about the injury risk as much as Leyland opting to give him more time off than usual, especially if the Tigers have the division in hand (which they
should, but obviously anything can happen). Even 20 fewer PA is enough to alter rankings. All things being equal, if he was #1 for you before, he should still be #1, if #2, still #2, etc.
Give me your breakout star for 2012. And your bust for 2012.
Matt Moore is too easy for breakout, so let's go with Dayan Viciedo. With full time run, 20+ HR with a .280-.290 average is reasonable, with upside.
Bust is Emilio Bonifacio. With Cespedes in Oakland, the job is his, which actually makes me happy, so now I get to see if I am right. There was just so much smoke and mirrors to his 2011 season, including getting luck on BUNTS!!!! Yes, they measure those things. There is a certain skill to laying one down, for sure. But his success rate was off the charts good and not just because he bunted really good. I see an average below .270 and fewer than30 steals. He is not going to be at the top of the order anymore so his SB opps will decrease, along with a lower OBP.
Josh Hamilton: Where do you have him ranked and does his latest incident scare the hell out of you if you draft him?
The well publicized relapse does not alter my ranking, in my mind, he has always been at risk for this sort of thing. I have also never owned him
I have him for 500 or so AB, 25-30 HR and about a .300 BA. He is going in the second round or so in the Slow Drafts, in an area I really don't like anyone (either too unproven or an injury risk). I may change my mind (perhaps due to the fact I humbly feel I do not take as many chances as I should in the contest), but right now, give me the unproven guy that will play (Stanton, McCutchen - though I have not checked his ADP since the incident, he may be early 3rd now and not late second).
Projections for Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero, Stephen Strasburg, Desmond Jennings.
I'll start with -- lower than most.
Going back to that risk thing, I am admittedly conservative when it comes to trusting first and second year players. I just think there are 300+ other players from which to choose where I am more comfortable trying to figure out how they will do. I know that some of my fellow industry brethren are making statements by taking these guys high in mag and site mocks, but I don't feel the need to be "that guy." I realize a projection is really nothing more than a guess, but at least it is an educated guess. We just do not have enough data to make a real educated guess. We can justify taking Lawrie or Jennings in the third round because we think he will earn it, bit to me, there is more hope than think. Anyway....
In my 2/15 update, I have the order to be Hosmer, Lawrie, Jennings, but it is real close. I also do not think it is a coincidence that the amount of MLB experience for the three is also that order. I like the fact Hosmer played enough that the pitchers adjusted then he had to adjust back and showed he could. His quiet steals also help. Lawrie's power-speed combo will keep him productive, it will be his BA that makes me right or wrong - I have him below .280. Jennings will not hit for the power he displayed, but his SB ability gives him value regardless of his BA or HR. Strictly by raw dollar value, they come out to be fourth round or so by my numbers, and it taking a 3rd rounder. Give me 2 sticks in the first 2 rounds, then Weaver/Hamels etc in the 3rd and I'll be happy.
I am in the minority when it comes to Montero. I think the whole "catch him a couple times a week" think is BS. I don't buy into "you don't trade Pineda for a DH, you need the bat at catcher." Monkey-dung I say,Seattle needs a big stick and they are not going to get one to sign as a free agent. Look at Wieters and how long it has taken him to develop as a hitter as he learned how to catch -- and he is a GOOD catcher. His stick was every bit as hyped when he came up -- Mark Teixeira with a catcher's mitt. Montero is a DH, period.
In that park, while he is still maturing, I see 15-20 HR and a .270-.280 BA, tops.
Projections and analysis for A-Rod.
Anyone who can tag-team with Torrie Wilson is OK in my book. With 500-550 AB, he can still hit 30 homers, scale up or down depending on how much you think he plays. I'm scaling down. I see the BA in the .270-.280 range.
Projections for Matt Moore, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout.
OK, throw all my conservative crap out the window when it comes to Matt Moore, I know, I know, TINSTAAPP. I am not a scout, I don't play one on TV and I can't afford to stay at a Holiday Inn Express. However, I have been hearing about how great this kid is for a couple of years from someone whose opinion I trust so much I consider it fact. And that was before he got a job scouting for Tampa (by the way Jason, Doughy misses you), Sky's the limit, nothing would surprise me, but i would lose my numerish card if I projected anything lower than mid 3s with a little more than a K an inning (even though his MLEs destroy that).
I project Harper to spend the season at Triple-A and for Trout to start in the Minors but an injury or trade will open up a spot and he is good, not great. .260 ish, 5 HR and 10 SB for every 200 AB he gets.
