Spring Training

[Edwards Kings]

Headline in today's Atlanta Jerknal-Constipation "Pitchers, catchers report today". From most baseball fans in Atlanta "Yeay! What have you done for me lately?" From one kitchen table in Duluth Georgia "It is about damn time! Where the hell have you been?"

Braves issues in my mind:

1) First and foremost of importance to the Braves season is will the off-season work by Jason Heyward with his long-time personal hitting coach, new Braves hitting coach Greg Walker and player/coach Chipper Jones correct the issues to Heywards swing, most likely caused by last season's injury. Everyone is smiles and confidence right now, but then again everyone in baseball except Michael Pineda, Carl Crawford, and Brian Roberts is either in the best shape of their lives, completely healthy, or have fixed whatever issues they had last year. My gut feel is that Heyward is much better than last year and even better than two years ago. Still too many ground balls and still will have a big hole in his swing low and away, but power is there. Middling average at best and will hit down in the line-up for the foreseeable future. When he proves himself, especially if he turns those ground balls to line drives or fly balls, he will move up the line-up and be worth a Top 15 OF spot.
2) As talented but maybe with a tougher row to hoe is Tommy Hanson. A batter correcting his swing is tough enough, but changing your pitching motion is another. If it works (again, quotes in the paper are all roses and sunshine), less strain on the arm, quicker to the plate, and we have a Top 10 ace. He is the complete package but must resolve those motion issues.
3) Tyler Pastornicky is not even the highest ranked shortstop in the Braves system. Limited (i.e. almost none) AAA experience. Field the ball? OK. Throw the ball? OK. Hit the ball? Ehhhhh? Do all three at the MLB starter level? "Jack Wilson....paging Jack Wilson?!"
4) How much will Chipper play? Give the future HOFer credit. He has been working hard this off-season. Still, Chipper of old (or Old Chipper) though. 120 games max. That fifth game in a week that he starts will be the exception, not the rule. Still gets wood on the ball, but will not leave the yard as much. He will protect his wheels. Defensive range will continue to shrink. Braves have much pitching talent in the high minors and are well stocked lower with OF and MI types. But no real heir-apparent at 3B.
5) Wither thou go-est, Martin Prado? No where. Will bounce back from staff infection that screwed up his year (bounce back means barely above Judy power, good contact/average, good player, limited speed and would hit #2 if I made out the line-up card), but an absolute must as "Chipper Insurance".
6) Tim Hudson will be ok though back surgery is just about the biggest red flag. Not Roy Oswalt big red flag, but big enough. The Braves have depth enough at pitcher to handle him with kid gloves, so when he is back, I believe he will be all the way back. The club has a $9m option on him for 2013, so the Braves hope to keep him around as veteran presence for the team (i.e. doesn't have to be the ace to keep his job).
7) Wither thou go-est, Jair Jurrjens? Gone if he proves as healthy as the reports make out. Would have pitched if the Braves made the play-offs. You should see him prominently displayed in spring early and often. I believe the Braves will take just about any decent prospect for him, but would not be surprised if they end up getting another quality bullpen arm to try and protect Mr's 7/8/9 of O'Flaherty/Venters/Kimbrell who each averaged appearing in over 80 games last year.
8) Five guys COULD be fifth starter. One WILL be fifth starter and one or two will be in the bull-pen. As many as three will be the AAA anchors to the Gwinnett Braves (Yeah for me!). Mike Minor I still believe is the best of the talent, but I would not like to live on the difference between him, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado, and Kris Medlen. If the Braves get a chance at a real difference maker in a trade, one could be bundled with Jurrjens.
9) Will Freddie Freeman repeat, grow, or slump. Grow. Bank on it.
10) Will Brandon Beachy repeat, grow or slump. Brandon Beachy is a fine, young MLB pitcher. The fact that he is going so high in drafts surprises me (but since I am a Missouri/Missouri, I guess that is expected). I think at least two of the other young Braves pitchers will be better than him in the long run. This year, I think he will be ranked a "disappointment" in that he may not return top 30 pitcher value. Does this mean he sucks? No, just young and still learning and he has some good luck last year. Does this mean he will be undervalued and therefore a Kings target in 2013? You betcha!

How is your home team doing?

[751542]

ALOT of questions in that braves lineup, esp the pitching...sorry to tell ya.... i see

phili
wash
fla
atl 5-7 games below 500
nym

just too many issues for the braves

[Cotton1]

I would break down Hanson's issues into 2 issues, both are obvious, but there's a third nobody is addressing and I will be momentarily....
1)Health. Is the minor tear in his rotator cuff fixed, or at a minimum, pitch-all-season worthy? I saw Kerry Wood in person in the start in 98' right before he struck out 20 and it was clear to me he was gonna hurt his arm, he had no body turn(a la Halladay or King Felix). With Hanson, the body turn isn't necessarily the issue, but his extreme short arm delivery is. There are very few pitchers(Jack Morris, Freddy Garcia, Billy Wagner, Keith Fowlke) that can pitch for any length of time with that motion and not just completely blow out their arms. Of the previously mentioned pitchers only Morris did it healthily(is that a word?) over a long period of time successfully. Wagner had a great career, but had several seasons when he had to shut down completely.
2) change in motion. If you recall, Keith Fowlke got by with an uppper 80's low 90's fastball, the short arm thing added a few mph re deception. If he changes his motion, what happens to command? More importantly, what happens to the deception factor? If he becomes a classic long arm pitcher, he may return to the average mph he enjoyed before, but he may be just another in a long list of long armers with perfect deliveries that get the shi- knocked out of them on a regular basis. I guess my point/question is has it been his delivery all along that's been the key to his success? I would argue it has been a huge component. When MLB hitters see 92-93-94 every night, you settle in against that and speed isn't a differentiator. Deception is. I'm just sayin'

[Cotton1]

Sorry, re-read my post, I kinda ran points 2-3 together. # 3 would be his effectiveness after the delivery change. He is possibly between a rock and a hard place. If he doesn't change his delivery his health/longevity is sorely in question. If he does change he risks ineffectiveness either thru command loss or, bigger still, a loss in his deception, which again is in my mind a key component to his success. If you have ever hit off a short-armer you would know it's tough to pick up a pitch and that extra 1/100 of a second can make all the difference. Time will tell....

[Edwards Kings]

ALOT of questions in that braves lineup, esp the pitching...sorry to tell ya.... i see

phili
wash
fla
atl 5-7 games below 500
nym

just too many issues for the braves

Yup, the Phillies, Nationals, and Marlins are soooo issue free!!!

The Braves are really hampered by too many starting pitcher options, a lead-off guy in a contract year with blazing speed, power out of the right side of the MI, young power on the right side corner and OF, all-star catcher, and young blazing relievers. Yes, there are problems on the left side of the infield, but behind Florida? I do like and am concerned about the Nationals, but in the end, the Braves will be in the race to the end.

Betcha a beer on it?