Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:29 am

Which is more difficult?

Bowling a 300 with both the right and left hand, or putting up a 150 in an NFBC Main League?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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rockitsauce
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by rockitsauce » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:30 am

Hey Shawn

I still remember talkin' w/ you yrs ago about strategy and I had written many things down - one was "get 2 lock down closers". This was never more evident than in the 2 fast-slow drafts I was in, esp the 1st one, man did those suckers get snatched up quick - when ur ecstatic that u got Capps at the 11-12 turn something is wrong !

You mentioned in one of your articles at the new website that closers were picked as early as the 4th rd in the early days of NFBC. Seems like for a while you could be the 1st guy to grab a closer in rd 7, even 8 or 9. Flash fwd to 1 wk ago in the aforementioned fast-slow Kimbrel went in rd 3 :shock:

There has been talk of less power hitters than in the steroid era so grabbing bats early seems crucial. You pondered this in the article about "Judys", more speed out there, etc...but what do you attribute to this rise in closer love ?
Always be closing.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CraigW » Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:20 am

A couple years back it was all about Jurgita Vaults... who is the sleeper you are all over(no pun intended) this year?

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Red Sox Nation-
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Red Sox Nation- » Sun Feb 26, 2012 12:50 pm

Hi Shawn,

How do you approach batting average in the Main Event. Do you try to front-load your top couple picks with high average players? Do you try to grab a Daniel Murphy type in the middle of the draft? Do you stay away from the Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn types? I find this to be the most difficult category to manage. (Glenn's countdown made me think of this)

Would you ever grab an established lower tier closer as your 3rd closer in the main event? For example in round 15 would you take Frank Francisco even though you already have 2 closers?

Which 2 rookies besides (Harper and Trout) will not break camp on the 25 man roster but have the biggest fantasy impact this year?

Thank you in advance,

Jason

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Quahogs
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Quahogs » Sun Feb 26, 2012 12:53 pm

Image

Childs - 8 years of data. Multiple years of experience. Slow drafts, useful ADP, early March drafts, NFBC-centric analysis and commentary. The average NFBC player is in many ways a better player than in years past.

Have the sharks plateaued ? Is it possible to build a better mousetrap these days ? Or is the game such that every season presents it's own unique challenges and that past results don't guarantee future performance ?

What do you forecast this season that will be unlike any previous season ? What avenues of thought are you pursuing that you haven't ever given consideration to ?

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Cornhusker » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:26 pm

Strausberg and Moore are being drafted very high considering their resumes. Are they being overvalued or undervalued based on their ADPs?

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Ryan C » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:30 pm

Hey Shawn - thanks for taking the time to answer some questions - To start off - here's a little lightning round: Answer all or just the one's you feel like.

J Kipnis or D Ackley?

E Aybar or D Gordon?

R Doumit or JP Arencibia?

D Freese or E Encarnacion?

B Morrow or U Jiminez?

M Aviles or J Lowrie?

J Mourneau or A Dunn?

Josh Johnson or T Hanson?

M Bourn or B Gardner?

J Tabata or B Revere?
Mastersball

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Ryan C » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:33 pm

Here's a real question: Once you get into the season and start looking at free agents, what are some of the most important factors - beyond playing time - that you look for when evaluating which players you want to bid on.
Mastersball

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Lunatic » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:55 pm

Hello Shawn,

2 questions here;

Who do you expect to have the better season in the Texas Rangers rotation?:

Neftali Perez
Yu Darvish

I am hearing arguments for Miguel Cabrera as the #1 OA pick and even Pujols as a choice over Matt Kemp. In your opinion is someone like Cabrera or Kemp the more clear #1 OA pick in the 2012 NFBC Main Event and why?
Your actions speak so loud, I can't hear a word you're saying...Ralph Waldo Emerson

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:57 pm

Damn Shawn, you've got your hands full with this one. Good luck with all of these tough questions and thanks for volunteering your time. I'll buy a good Mexican dinner in Phoenix this weekend for your troubles!! ;) Have fun tonight.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by rkulaski » Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:52 pm

Shawn,
3 questions

1. What resources, web sites, etc do you follow during spring training to help you best prepare for your nfbc drafts?? What about during the season?

2. Thoughts on Liriano this year?

3. Which CIs would you be targeting if you had to draft one to fill out your roster after round 20 according to nfbc adp data? What about an OF or 2?

Thanks as always for doing this, Shawn. Look forward to it each year. Take care and best of luck to you this year in the nfbc.

Rich
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by bjoak » Sun Feb 26, 2012 3:23 pm

Which was the best of the Oscar films?
Chance favors the prepared mind.

CC's Desperados
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:24 pm

Well it's been a long haul writing about the player pool. I'd like to thank Greg for letting me do this chat again. Over the winter, I signed a five-year deal with a two-year option with www.SportsDraftdaily.com. Ok..... Maybe I'm wishing I had some long-term security, but I am very thankful Scott Fleming reached out to me to be part of his project. It's been a lot of work and I imagine it will even be more work going forward.

We have a lot of things we are thinking about to make the site have value going forward. For now, we plan on covering fantasy baseball and fantasy football. We'd like to cover the high stakes market in both sports. Over the next month, we will be discussing our future plans for coverage during the season.

Next year we hope we are position better to have bodies in Florida and Arizona to do fantasy coverage for the site. We are looking for small tidbits that might make a difference in the fantasy season. This year in March we will try to update some of the player information as more information comes in. We will start adding auction articles this week as Greg and I are preparing for LABR next weekend. I will post the auction prices we will be looking at going into the auction plus I will write an article on our game plan for each day.

At the same time, we have to somehow incorporate the Yahoo and ESPN crowd which someday become players in the high stakes market.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:26 pm

bjoak wrote:Thanks for the chat, Shawn.

If I remember correctly, during last year's chat someone asked you who 2011's Jose Bautista would be and you answered Colby Rasmus. Great misinformation! Just like Bautista, he sucked and then moved to Toronto and still sucked. :D Okay, seriously, what have you learned from his performance this past year and where does he go from here?
So you are looking for a 6th or 7th round pick with a chance at 30 HR’s and 20 SB’s? Rasmus fits the bill. He won’t hit .330 or drive in the runs. He should bat second and he has upside in speed and power.

I'd have to say I don't think I owned him on any teams last year. I thought he was interesting player in 2011, but his price point was too high for my plan and I was shopping for different players at different positions when he went off the board. This year I don't see a lot of fight for him and his finish in Toronto looks a bit disappointing. It sounds like he changed his swing and he has a fresh start. He has talent and he should hit a favorable part of the batting order. If you like him at discount, he looks like a bounce back player in 2012

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:27 pm

bjoak wrote:I imagine at your new site you are doing player profiles. Give us a taste. Give us someone's profile that includes a piece of (fantasy relevant) information that the vast majority of people don't know or haven't figured out.
I listed him as the number two closer overall while many sites believe Javy Guerra will have the job this year. I'm not promoting drafting him second, but I will be tracking where he gets drafted because he looks like he is going to be an edge at the closer position this season.

2-Kenley Jansen I LAD I - Last year he really struggled in April (7.43 ERA - 3 HR's in 13.1 innings) which led to him being sent down to AA on May 3rd. He was called back three days later when Jonathan Broxton went down with an injury. He saved his first game on May 13th. Over the next two weeks, he only pitched in the ninth inning twice. He pitched poorly on May 23rd and a week later he was on the DL with a shoulder injury. When he returned, Javy Guerra had establish himself as a closer. Jansen pitched 17 consecutive games without allowing a run after he returned from the DL. Unfortunately he developed an irregular heartbeat which forced him on the DL for about four weeks. Over his last 32.2 innings, he allowed 10 hits and nine walks with 52 K's. In September, he had an unbelievable K/9 rate (21.1). There's no question he has an electric arm and he could be this year's Craig Kimbrel. Last year he threw 64 % strikes and 62 % first pitch strikes. His AFB (93.3) took a slight step backwards in 2011. He threw 86.8 % fastballs for the year. They say his second pitch was a slider, but it was reported late in the year that he developed a cutter and it was the key reason for his high K rate late in the year. He has nine major league saves and his minor league resume is extremely short as the Dodgers converted him from catcher to pitcher late in 2009. He has an electric skill set and it appears he may have in unhittable pitch. He is being drafted as a second closer in the high stakes market. I'm sure he is a wise guy pick this season. On pure talent, he should be the second closer taken this season. I have to believe he is a closer this season. The shoulder injury last season is a concern and hopefully he is healthy this spring training.

Insurance: Javy Guerra was quite a surprise to me last season. When he saved his first game last season, I did some research and I thought for sure his poor command would keep him from keeping the job long-term. He had an eight year minor league resume. His command (5.2) did start to improve when the Dodgers moved him to the bullpen. In the majors, he had the best command (3.5) of his career. His K/9 rate (7.3) was better than his minor league career and I would think it would've been higher in the majors with a better command rate. He has an impressive closing resume from 2011. He saved his first 21 games of the year before blowing his first game on the last day he pitched on the season. He threw him 61 % strikes and 47 % first pitch strikes. His first pitch strike % is a clear indication he will take a step backwards this season. He has a solid fastball (94) and he also throws a slider. There is no doubt in my mind after seeing his first strike % that he will not be a consideration for the closing job to start the year. I would draft Kenley Jansen as the closer and I would get him at a discount until the Dodgers give most fantasy fans confirmation. LA has a couple of other items that may develop if Jansen has an injury and Javy Guerra. I think Josh Lindblom may be a factor in the bullpen. He saved 17 games last year at AAA. He doesn't have in elite fastball (91.7).

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:32 pm

Quahogs wrote:Image

CHILDS - got a couple for you... Who do you like to have a better season :

A.Pujols or C.Pena ?
CC Sabathia or Joe Saunders ?
Tulowitzki or A.Casilla ?
It's almost like I'm at the last call at the local sports bar. I really want attractive players, but they're long gone and I have to sift through the $hit to have a successful season. I wish it came down to Pujols or Pena, but it is always the second piece to the puzzle - like Pujols and Gallardo or Kershaw and Pena. Those are the tough questions I wish I had the answers for. I bet as easy as it looks: similar decisions would have the underdog winning 25 % of the time.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by Glenneration X » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:33 pm

CCsDesperados wrote:
bjoak wrote:Thanks for the chat, Shawn.

If I remember correctly, during last year's chat someone asked you who 2011's Jose Bautista would be and you answered Colby Rasmus. Great misinformation! Just like Bautista, he sucked and then moved to Toronto and still sucked. :D Okay, seriously, what have you learned from his performance this past year and where does he go from here?
So you are looking for a 6th or 7th round pick with a chance at 30 HR’s and 20 SB’s? Rasmus fits the bill. He won’t hit .330 or drive in the runs. He should bat second and he has upside in speed and power.

I'd have to say I don't think I owned him on any teams last year. I thought he was interesting player in 2011, but his price point was too high for my plan and I was shopping for different players at different positions when he went off the board. This year I don't see a lot of fight for him and his finish in Toronto looks a bit disappointing. It sounds like he changed his swing and he has a fresh start. He has talent and he should hit a favorable part of the batting order. If you like him at discount, he looks like a bounce back player in 2012
If I recall correctly, Rasmus started his meteoric rise up the draft boards after Shawn's chat last year. Here we go again. ;)

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:34 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:It looks like our regulars are in hiding Shawn, or maybe they don't want your knowledge anymore!! I'll start it out:

a) We aren't bidding for three shortstops again in LABR NL, are we? Do you think we could have won LABR with that strategy if Hanley had given us anything for our $42 bid?
I don't think so. If Ramirez played well along with Rollins, we may have had a tradable piece that would've given us a chance to win. Doug Dennis had a great season and he posted a very high total. We needed Tommy Hanson to stay healthy and pitch like in elite starter along with Ramirez played well. It was surprising to see the team finished third with so many injuries.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:35 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
b) Is it still possible to get 75-75 with your first three picks with fewer stars able to go 20-20? Have you ever taken a SP with your first three picks?
I think the 75/75 may work from a couple of drafts slots. With the rise in the value of pitching and the drop-off of elite batters early in the second round, it makes more sense to cover your 75/75 plan after four possibly five rounds. I took Randy Johnson 2004 in the second round and two years ago I drafted Roy Holladay in the second round. It really comes down to the player pool.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:37 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
c) Did the Year of the Pitcher change the way NFBC drafts are going this year compared to past years or is the starting pitcher pool still deep enough to hold off on Wins and K's?
Absolutely, elite starting pitchers are a huge edge in today's game. Many owners are trying to secure dual aces which will be the foundation of their staff. They will be interesting to see if those teams that draft two starters early can compete for the overall title the season. Every draft will be different and there will be some teams that will acquire very good pitching at a discount.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:39 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote: d) Your take on Carl Crawford in Boston: Bad fit or good shot at a comeback season?
I think he will be discounted this season and he will be very good pick. I selected him in one early draft in the fourth round and I question whether I would take him again in the same situation in the live drafts. His wrist injury is a concern and we'd like to know if he is going to hit second this season. He has a long resume of success which gives him an excellent shot to be a comeback player. I recently saw David DiDonato wearing his jersey around town.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:40 pm

Sack wrote:Shawn:

For the second time in three seasons, Lindy Hinkelman has won the $100k Grand Prize.
To the best of my knowledge, Gabe Hinkelman has to receive that new set of wheels you promised
Him that his Dad would buy if history repeated. Do you think that Gabe should hold out on reporting
To Vegas this March in a power play to get his just due? Will the pig farmer be as effective without
The young stud by his side on draft day?
The rumor on the street is Gabe has gone Hollywood. He knows he is the superstar in the family and his future maybe on the big screen. The rumor on the street is Matt Kemp has no shot at Rihanna with Gabe in town. To the bottom line is: who really is the number one pick this season? I guess deep down Gabe has a little Lindy in him. You can take the pig farmer out of Idaho, but you can't take the pig out of the farmer. I'm sure LA is glad to have Gabe servicing the countryside.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:41 pm

Sack wrote: Scanning the player pool this season, what position do you think holds the best possible
Upside in regard to finding a creditable contributor beyond Round Ten to plug into your starting
Fourteen?
I'm thinking the outfield position. With the new trend to draft starting pitching earlier, outfielders are sliding further in drafts. I think if you put your head in the sand you will come up with one viable player with upside at outfield position.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:48 pm

Thunder wrote:Shawn, what's your take on Darvish, Cepedes (if he gets a Visa) or any other of the foreign players making their much hyped MLB debuts this year?
I like what I've seen in some of the scouting videos on Darvish. In some drafts, he is severely discounted which makes him a very attractive player. If his value rises, you really have to believe he is a strong enough to be a number two starter in a 15 team league. I think he can, but I'm not sure I'm willing to pay full price for him.

I like what I've seen Cepedes and the A's must agree with me as they paid him $9 million a year. His price point was much lower before he signed. I think he is going to have a very good spring training especially against weaker pitching early on. This will push up his value and basically put him in an area where there are other players with a similar skill set. I think he plays well, but it won't be an easy ride.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

Post by CC's Desperados » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:50 pm

Glenneration X wrote:Shawn, I've been considering grabbing the last spot and testing myself in the AL Auction in Vegas, but have been able to resist the impulse thus far. I've never done an "Only" draft or auction to date. However, I know you've got some serious experience and successes in the format. If you were going to provide a few tips and note the differences between an Only and a Mixed Auction, what points would you highlight?

Thanks for doing this again Shawn. See you in Vegas.
I think you are one of the best fantasy players out there. I think you would be motivated to prove that you could figure out the AL auction in the first try. If anything, it would add another feather in your cap.

The main thing between in an AL or NL auction is the help off the waiver wire. If you have a problem in a single auction format with no trading, you may not find a replacement all year. You can survive a couple injuries as long as the injuries are short-term. In a mixed auction, there will be serviceable players in the pool all season. The one plus from a single auction in the NFBC format is the time to manage the team. It takes a lot less time which works well if you own multiple teams.

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