Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

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Childs, congrats on your new fantasy paying gig. A dream of all of ours. However it doesn't seem right that Fleming makes you wear a suit to work

If you had PICK #1 who would be your 1st pick and your LAST. Why ?

If you could picture Ben Affleck in good Will Hunting going to a job interview with a suit three sizes too small, you will have a mental image of my meeting with the bigwigs at Sportsdraftdaily.com.

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Hi Shawn, 1) Who will be the first three closers to lose their jobs? Will Mike Trout get enough at bats to be a productive fantasy player?

Guerra if he lands the job. Balfour and Valverde

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have childs and the guy turning the nfl into flag football ever been seen in the same room at the same time?. invite them both to vegas and see if they both show up. tell mr. flag football that you have 10 more ways he can take hitting out of the game and 10 more ways for even more commercials- he'll show. that is, if he isn't childs.

I used to play flag football in the early 90s which led to me being the commissioner of the NFL. My fantasy gig is supposed to be low-profile.

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What's your projection for Cepedes?

I don't really do projections. I'm thinking he can hit 25 home runs with 15 steals, but I think his batting average may fall in the 270 range.

[Schwks]

Shawn, How much of your draft is mapped out and adjusted to the flow of the draft, and how much is purely based upon flow of the draft? Doug

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Will Mike Trout get enough at bats to be a productive fantasy player?

I still can't understand why the Angels paid Bobby Abreu $9 million this season. He is blocking Trout from playing this season. I think Trout is a better player than Peter Bourjos and he may eventually steal his job if the Angels can't find a home for Abreu. So yes, I think Trout will have productive at bats this season.

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Hey Shawn, you love aggressive style strategies in auctions, as you shocked everyone with your 3 SS last year.

1) What are some of the most agressive auction strategies you have seen work in the NFBC?

A few years back I remember looking at J.T. Visco's team from the previous season in an NL only league. I think he bought four hitters for $160 and he won the league. The following season he tried it again, but he had a tough time executing the plate again.

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2) Are the strategies different for you in mixed league auctions vs AL or NL only auctions? If so, how?

I think the core ideas of the players are the same. In an AL or NL, it may be easier to cheat saves. In the mixed auctions, the price point for saves has come down a lot since 2005. Players realize they don't have enough money to draft the desired team and the overall feeling in the room depresses closers prices. Once in a while, you will see a new player in the league and he will overpay for the first closer off the board. Once he sees how much lower the inventory goes, he wishes he had the extra money back to draft more offense for starting pitching.

In a mixed auction, you have a lot more opportunities at the end of the draft to fill your roster. It just a matter of being disciplined to be in position to take advantage of it.

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Assuming you've filled out your potential starters with your first 25 picks, what is your typical strategy or what do you like to accomplish in those last few rounds?
Handcuff your closers? Grab some extra SP's that pitch in good home parks and would be a good matchup/2 start guy? Grab a 3rd C in case of injury? Go for a big prospect that probably won't make the team out of spring but you never know?

I think it makes the most sense to fill your back end of your roster with the players that would most likely cost the most money the first week on the waiver wire. You don't want to overcompensate for a weakness. You want to add depth and you want to plan for your pitching for the first couple of weeks of the year if possible. Many times players will draft a fifth starter and he may not start until April 15. If their roster isn't structured properly, they may take a zero the first week of the season.

I could see handcuffing one of your closers if you thought he would lose his job early in the season. Overall I think every owner would like to own a solid starters in the NFBC. I like the idea of carrying an upside prospect, but you really have to be careful that you are right about the player. I don't think you can afford to carry more than one especially if your team has any injuries early in the season.

Like I said, every team will be different. If you feel you have weakness at a position, the best option may be minor league player with upside. Other times there is a player that slides late the draft that will get regular at bats.

I think a third catcher is a tough carry unless he is a minor leaguer with upside. Again, it comes down to the other players and the strength of your roster.

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Mike Morse, about same age as Jose when he broke loose. bigger and stronger but less FBs. I have seen him go as early as a #2 but usually a 4 or 5. Last year he was almost a flyer, does he take that next step or not? The reason I don't play (yet) in the main is my struggles with 15 team leagues. When I saw the NFBC XII I was all in ASAP. I saw on your web site that you some times have problems with the 12 team format, what is the big difference? Why do you think I can't make that transition? What are you leaning towards in your KDS? (Don't answer that if it may corrupt your plans). Thank you.

Morse looks like a strong kid. I think the power is for real. I just don't think the batting average is repeatable. If you buy him in round two, you need him to be in elite player which I don't think he is. If he can give you a 25/90 season, I think you will still be in the game. I can't see Morse in my plan.

In the 15 team format, your draft can really lay the groundwork for successful season. If you plan well, you only have to add players when you have injuries or sprinkle him a couple of double starters. Most of the time I think I have a pretty good feel for what might happen in the future as far as playing time. In the 12 team format, I'm too much of a wheeler dealer in the pitching staff. If I'm falling behind in wins and K's, I will push the envelope to gain ground in those categories. In the past, it has worked against me. I can have very good starting pitching options in my starting lineup and on my bench, but I tend to make the wrong calls when I sit down a single starter. To me, it's kind of like gambling. I know I can't win betting on the games when I try to select which pitcher will have the most success in a given week. I think the players from the CDM games are much better at micromanaging the pitching staffs. I guess the bottom line is: I should probably invest in stronger arms in the front of my staff.

I think most people struggle with 15 team game because they don't plan well enough at the draft or they struggle with the waiver wire. Many players miss on key guys on the waiver wire during key parts of the season. The top players in the NFBC win many of the key players they need during the season.

Normally I don't touch KDS for the main event. This year in all the slow drafts I avoided the middle. I'm not sure what I will do for the main event. I really need to decide if there is a player I want to commit to in the first round. I know I can't predict an early draft slot, but I know I can slide down to the right area in most drafts. It just comes down to draft plan and I think this year I feel more comfortable near the backend of the draft.

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Shaun, you have put a lot of work into your site. Do you think that all the writing helps you or hurts you in your NFBC endeavors?

I guess last season I had a similar winter and my results were poor in the main events of the NFBC. I think it should help me as I am constantly thinking of who I like and where a player should get drafted. As long as I'm helping you, everything is good with me.

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In my last slow draft 60 pitchers went in the first 10 rounds.1 team in general had 5 pitchers in his first 9 picks.With that many pitchers flying off the board do you think it is still possible to go heavy on hitting and get enough of an advantage to grab enough good pitching late to still win a league? The main?

I think any philosophy can win. I think the more important thing is your rate of success. Can you execute your plan? And will it win over time? There have been many players who have cheated pitching and they have lost over time in the NFBC. If you have an edge in information, you have more room for error. I think most players in the NFBC know the player pool. This makes it tough to fill out the backend of the starting rotation. I'd rather see you think about trade-offs at positions and game planning. If you identified a viable executable strategy that involved cheating pitching, you have a reason and a plan.

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Does this make you feel like you must start grabbing pitching or put the blinders on and stick to a master plan?

I'm a plan type of guy. I like to know where I'm going and where I'm going to go if I have to detour during a draft.

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In the same draft 1 team drafted one 1st baseman and 4 outfielders with his first 5 picks,1 team went of,1b,3b,2nd,c, and 1 team went 2b,sp,1b,of and c.Now we all know that you cant win a draft with your first 5 picks but you can lose one,do you believe in sticking to a game plan at all costs ,position scarcity or best player on the board?

I think the position scarcity has less value in the 15 team game. Realistically there are only a handful of edge pieces at catcher, second base, and shortstop. If you miss on one of those players, you have to gain your edge in a different area of the draft. It could be power or possibly pitching. I think it basically comes down to your game plan.

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Shawn,

Typically in a 15-team draft, you have to "cheat" some area. in the past you have "cheated" on closers. What area do you foresee yourself 'cheating" on considering this year's inventory of players?

I agree. You have to cheat something to have success in this game. The easiest category to cheat is saves, but it is a very frustrating battle on the waiver wire during the season. The ideal situation would be to cheat saves, but come out of the draft with two solid discounted closers. That's a lot easier said than done. I think my plan hurts me if I want to cheat anything else. As I discussed with Rick Thomas, I'm a chicken guy. I like to draft the balance team and I respect middle infielders and catchers. The player that discounts both of these positions will most likely beat me in the upfront pitching and saves. I may have an edge on him in speed and possibly batting average. Because I have two main events, I may cheat saves again in one and play the other one straight up. I'm not sure as of today as I haven't started game planning yet. I have a few drafts where I can reflect and see where I can make better decisions.

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I've been playing A.l. auction and N.L. auction roto since 1985. This season will be my first try at a mixed league auction, apr 1, in vegas. i think i have a fairly clear idea how to build my pre-draft player values for single league play. I am guessing that for a mixed league, i should adjust the expected costs at auction down, because of the increased supply. kemp should cost less in a mixed than in an N.L., and adjust from there based on all the normal factors. is this the case ? i have adjusted prices down by the percent difference between population base drafted, mixed vs single league. does that sound correct?

In mixed auctions, star players will go full price. Once you get through the top inventory, I think the crossover is about 80 % until you get deep in the player pool. Closers will cost less. Most likely you can buy to closers for $20. For any player less than $10 in a single auction format, his value will vary a lot in a mixed auction based on when he is called out.

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I am guessing that post-auction, seeing as the quality of players available to draft for your bench is much stronger in a mixed, than in a single league, that my targets should change. what is your post-auction draft strategy for filling your bench in a 15 team mixed?

Most of the time there are better players available in the first couple of picks in the reserve round of an auction. Many players who are down to $1 won't call out a key player because of the risk of losing him. I would just take the best available athlete.

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finally, of the several championship teams i looked at in high stakes leagues from 2011, many finished the season no where near the top of the leader board in saves. last year's mixed auction champ tallied four saves. also, almost all those teams finished high in the other four pitching categories. Do you think those team's success will result in downward pressure on the price of closers this year, and increase the cost at auction of top starters?

I think the NFBC is already ahead of most homes leagues as far as price point for saves. The NFBC auction championship has less teams plus it is very difficult to complete a strong roster because of the price point of players. Many teams will have an edge in some area, but they will have weakness elsewhere. I think a top NFBC player would rather commit plus dollars to elite pitching than invest in a questionable closer. If something won last season, I'm sure more teams will try it this season.

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1. I think Hanley will have another bad year and think that end of first/ early second is too early for him. I think he hits less than 20 HR with ballpark 25 SB and .280 AVG Here are the 3 reasons why:

1. I don't think he is going to adjust to 3B all, that well
2. Shoulder surgery will sapp his power this year/ Example: A-Gone last year
3. I'm hearing ballpark could play similar to Citifield

I'm thinking you don't respect his talent. Hanley isn't a small guy and I think he can hit a home run out of any ballpark. I think Hanley will be on many teams that win NFBC titles the season.

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[quote="The Franchise"]

2. I have always been in love with Rasmus. Like Rihanna, Did I find love in a hopeless place?
/quote]

If you are aroused by him, this is the year to date him as many will avoid him. If you have the commitment, he should leave you satisfied this season.

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4. Matt Moore seems to have caught your eye. The question is when the chips are on the table are you going trust him as your #2 pitcher?

Yes with the right number one starter in front of him.

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3. With pitching dominating lately do you think more teams play small ball and that we could see 75+ SB guys again?

I would be surprised to see 75 stolen base season. It could happen in the future. I just don't think this year.

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5. Rent to own daughter. When does that expire?

I'm all in and it's too late to return her for a rebate.

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6. What's your least favorite thing to do and why. Wear a suit or draft a pitcher in the 1st rd?

I guess wearing a suit while I'm drafting a pitcher in the first round.

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Which is more difficult?

Bowling a 300 with both the right and left hand, or putting up a 150 in an NFBC Main League?

I would say bowling a 300 with both hands. As far as I know, I'm the only jackass trying to do it.

For what is is worth, I shot 268-223-266 (757) three weeks ago left handed and 257-258-213 (728) right handed this week.