Live Chat With Shawn Childs, Sunday At 5 p.m. EST

[CC's Desperados]

Hey Shawn

I still remember talkin' w/ you yrs ago about strategy and I had written many things down - one was "get 2 lock down closers". This was never more evident than in the 2 fast-slow drafts I was in, esp the 1st one, man did those suckers get snatched up quick - when ur ecstatic that u got Capps at the 11-12 turn something is wrong !

You mentioned in one of your articles at the new website that closers were picked as early as the 4th rd in the early days of NFBC. Seems like for a while you could be the 1st guy to grab a closer in rd 7, even 8 or 9. Flash fwd to 1 wk ago in the aforementioned fast-slow Kimbrel went in rd 3

There has been talk of less power hitters than in the steroid era so grabbing bats early seems crucial. You pondered this in the article about "Judys", more speed out there, etc...but what do you attribute to this rise in closer love ?

Are you sure you weren't talking to the King of misinformation? I think the slow drafts closers are little more important because you can't fix the problem on the waiver wire. In the main event, I think closers will start to slide slightly.

Kimbrel could be selected that early if someone is playing in angle. He looks like an edge at the closer position, but the edge is lost once you select before an elite starter. Another owner should be able to gain the edge back at the starting pitching position.

[Ando]

Shawn,

What are your expectations for Matt Moore now that it seems there will be no innings curtailment with him?

Thanks for your time with this chat.

[CC's Desperados]

A couple years back it was all about Jurgita Vaults... who is the sleeper you are all over(no pun intended) this year?

You took my breath away and my knees became weak with the thought of the heat Vaults brings.

I won't call him a sleeper more like a beaten down prospect. I think Domonic Brown has a very good year for Philly. He is going in the reserve rounds right now, but that may change when we have info.

[CC's Desperados]

Hi Shawn,

How do you approach batting average in the Main Event. Do you try to front-load your top couple picks with high average players? Do you try to grab a Daniel Murphy type in the middle of the draft? Do you stay away from the Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn types? I find this to be the most difficult category to manage. (Glenn's countdown made me think of this)

For the main event, I'd like to be strong in batting average. With so many players having down years in offense, it's tough to see beyond the numbers to have a successful team as far as average. I know I hear a lot about people punting saves or even steals. I think the easiest out maybe not punting batting average but neglecting it. By doing this, you have the ability to draft skill sets with power and speed with the hopes of some of these players having upticks in batting average. Dunn offers too much power for his ADP. I think in live drafts his value will rise. I think most people draft Reynolds when they see the inventory drop off at 3rd base. I think he would work well if you had the right players in front of him. Maybe Joe Mauer works well with Reynolds. I think when you draft a team with a strong batting average, you may fall short in some the other categories.

[Hells Satans]

Do you use draft software? If so, which one?

[CC's Desperados]

Would you ever grab an established lower tier closer as your 3rd closer in the main event? For example in round 15 would you take Frank Francisco even though you already have 2 closers?

This works well for a team that disrespects catchers and middle infielders. It opens up an extra draft spot which will cover saves. I think it can work.

[CC's Desperados]

Which 2 rookies besides (Harper and Trout) will not break camp on the 25 man roster but have the biggest fantasy impact this year?

Tough question...I have this feeling about Chris Carter this year. I know Oakland has plenty of outfield depth so he will probably start the year in the minors. I guess the other would be Shelby Miller. He looks like he is real close, but the Cardinals have a couple of veteran arms blocking him.

[CC's Desperados]

Have the sharks plateaued ? Is it possible to build a better mousetrap these days ? Or is the game such that every season presents it's own unique challenges and that past results don't guarantee future performance ?

I think each year players are doing more and more work in the NFBC. At each draft, there are more names you know and more teams that have a legit shot at winning the league title. I think many players still draft based on previous results which invites failure. I think every season has different opportunities. The owners that can identify them have the best chance of winning. Sometimes multiple owners have identified the same key players, but they land in the same league which hurts all their chances. You need the right plan, the right league, and the right draft slot.

[CC's Desperados]

What do you forecast this season that will be unlike any previous season ? What avenues of thought are you pursuing that you haven't ever given consideration to ?

I think we are due for a season where elite catchers are difference makers.

I don't think I will change my philosophy this season. Maybe if I draw an unfavorable draft position,I may decide on a spicy pork game plan.

[CC's Desperados]

Strausberg and Moore are being drafted very high considering their resumes. Are they being overvalued or undervalued based on their ADPs?

I like both players. I think Strasburg needs to be paired with another pitcher that will offer plus innings. That player could be found before or after him. From what I've seen, Moore offers fair value. It's like owners believe in him, but they are selecting him after most of the proven talent has come off the board.

[Outlaw]

What do you forecast this season that will be unlike any previous season ? What avenues of thought are you pursuing that you haven't ever given consideration to ?

I think we are due for a season where elite catchers are difference makers.

I don't think I will change my philosophy this season. Maybe if I draw an unfavorable draft position,I may decide on a spicy pork game plan.

Shawn - Speaking of catchers this year, out of the top 8 , Posey, Napoli, Wieters, Avila, Santana, Mauer, Montero, McCann... Can you see an advantage to grabbing two of them and then possibly a third like Ramos, molina, Perez, Lucroy?

Thanks for any insight.

[CC's Desperados]

Hey Shawn - thanks for taking the time to answer some questions - To start off - here's a little lightning round: Answer all or just the one's you feel like.

J Kipnis or D Ackley?

E Aybar or D Gordon?

R Doumit or JP Arencibia?

D Freese or E Encarnacion?

B Morrow or U Jiminez?

M Aviles or J Lowrie?

J Mourneau or A Dunn?

Josh Johnson or T Hanson?

M Bourn or B Gardner?

J Tabata or B Revere?

Ackley just based on where he will hit in the batting order.

I'll call Aybar and Gordon a draw. Both players are going extremely high for this skill set.

I'll take Arencibia because I think the power is for real.

I think the next one Freese and E Encarnacion is tough. It all comes down to price point. They both players could play well this season, but I wouldn't overdraft them.

I'll take Jimenez as he's done it before while Morrow has more injury risk.

I'll take Aviles just because I'm a homer.

Dunn. I'm not convinced Morneau will play this season.

I'll call the next one a drawer also. I've seen Johnson slide to the ninth round which makes him as attractive as Hanson. If have to take Johnson in the sixth and Hanson in the ninth, I'd take the discounted player. I think it comes down to price point.

Gardner

Revere

[CC's Desperados]

Here's a real question: Once you get into the season and start looking at free agents, what are some of the most important factors - beyond playing time - that you look for when evaluating which players you want to bid on.

The health of my team and what are my weaknesses? This will lead me to most of my decisions. If I'm healthy,I'm looking for upside talent. If I'm weak get closer, I'm trying to find the next closer in waiting.

[CC's Desperados]

Hello Shawn,

2 questions here;

Who do you expect to have the better season in the Texas Rangers rotation?:

Neftali Perez
Yu Darvish

I am hearing arguments for Miguel Cabrera as the #1 OA pick and even Pujols as a choice over Matt Kemp. In your opinion is someone like Cabrera or Kemp the more clear #1 OA pick in the 2012 NFBC Main Event and why?

Darvish hands down.I've never heard of that Perez guy. Feliz doesn't have enough command secondary pitches at this point of his career.

I've consider Cabrera if I had the number one pick. It comes down to: who do you want a pair you first-round pick with?

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn,
3 questions

1. What resources, web sites, etc do you follow during spring training to help you best prepare for your nfbc drafts?? What about during the season?

2. Thoughts on Liriano this year?

3. Which CIs would you be targeting if you had to draft one to fill out your roster after round 20 according to nfbc adp data? What about an OF or 2?

Thanks as always for doing this, Shawn. Look forward to it each year. Take care and best of luck to you this year in the nfbc.

Rich

I follow the news on Rotoworld and Rotowire. I have access to Baseball HQ and ESPN insider. I rarely visit either site. I make most of my own decisions based on my research and when I'm seeing from the box scores.

Liriano looks like he is free the season. He really killed a couple of teams last season which makes him a tough buy in the main event. I have my eye on him and I drafted him at least once a slow draft. When the money is on the line in March, I need more information.

I can't see myself waiting until round 24 a corner infielder. Maybe Rizzo or Gamel.

Jerry Sands or Domonic Brown

[CC's Desperados]

Which was the best of the Oscar films?

Looking For the Look Back

Directed by Will Tyrer

[Raskol]

Shawn-
I'm exiled in California and can't read The Globe, so help me out:

Who gets the most AB at SS for Boston this year? And will there ever be stability at SS for them?

Is Salty going to platoon?

Do you think that if Youk ever smiled, he might be healthier?

How many fried chicken delivery joints on Lansdowne St. have gone out of business? Or do they expect similar business this season?

What two positions would you be willing to wait the longest for this year? C? MI?

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn, How much of your draft is mapped out and adjusted to the flow of the draft, and how much is purely based upon flow of the draft? Doug

I'd like to map out my core offense and my core pitching. If I miss out on players with a certain skill set, I most likely nowhere I need to go to make my targets later in the draft.

I think I have an idea where I want to go at all positions, but there's a lot that changes in each draft.

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn,

What are your expectations for Matt Moore now that it seems there will be no innings curtailment with him?

Thanks for your time with this chat.

I thought he would pitch 200+ innings all along. I think he will strikeout 200+ batters. His whip won't be good enough to be a frontline starter based on his walk rate. Maybe Jon Lester with upside.

[CC's Desperados]

Do you use draft software? If so, which one?

I have a clipboard and four pieces of paper.

[CC's Desperados]

What do you forecast this season that will be unlike any previous season ? What avenues of thought are you pursuing that you haven't ever given consideration to ?

I think we are due for a season where elite catchers are difference makers.

I don't think I will change my philosophy this season. Maybe if I draw an unfavorable draft position,I may decide on a spicy pork game plan.

Shawn - Speaking of catchers this year, out of the top 8 , Posey, Napoli, Wieters, Avila, Santana, Mauer, Montero, McCann... Can you see an advantage to grabbing two of them and then possibly a third like Ramos, molina, Perez, Lucroy?

Thanks for any insight.

I like the idea of drafting two, but there's no way I'm drafting a third catcher inside around 20.

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn-
I'm exiled in California and can't read The Globe, so help me out:

Who gets the most AB at SS for Boston this year? And will there ever be stability at SS for them?

Is Salty going to platoon?

Do you think that if Youk ever smiled, he might be healthier?

How many fried chicken delivery joints on Lansdowne St. have gone out of business? Or do they expect similar business this season?

What two positions would you be willing to wait the longest for this year? C? MI?

It sounds like Aviles is the man this year.

I can't believe the Red Sox signed Shoppach. I think this hurts Salty somewhat this season.

He might be healthier if he wasn't such a Dick.

I hear there's a new Subway on Lansdowne St.

OF5 and SP7

[CC's Desperados]

I'm out....thanks again Greg.

[Glenneration X]

As always a great job Shawn and really appreciated that you're always so willing to share your time and thoughts.

[rkulaski]

Thanks Shawn. Always insightful and enjoyable reading your chat here.