Dee Gordon and Brett Maverick

[DOUGHBOYS]

There's a Dee Gordon thread at the top topic that suggests Gordon should not be drafted as early as has been drafted.
We all think this about several players. Personally, I love Brett Lawrie (no, I'm not gonna marry him), but in the third round, he is not an option for me. He is untested in my mind. In other folks minds, he is a difference maker.
Same for Gordon, just in a different round.

But, this got me thinking about adp as a whole. By NFBC logic and adp, Lawrie is a third rounder at #41 and Gordon is a seventh rounder with an adp of 102. Are they really though?
It takes 15 drafters to make up an NFBC draft. If we ask those 15 drafters who the first three picks should be, a solid consensus would say Cabrera, Pujols, and Kemp. A consensus follows the rounds on most players. Reyes and Teixeira are second rounders, etc...

This is not the case for players like Lawrie and Gordon. Although they have third round and seventh round adp status, they are far from being consensus third and seventh rounders. They are being taken by Maverick drafters. Maverick drafters are more free with risk. At the poker table, Maverick drafters would go 'all in' with a pair of two's more than once in a long poker game.
I have no numbers or even facts to back it up, but I would guess that 20% of drafters are Maverick drafters. This means that of every 15 drafters, three in each draft would be willing to take chances on players like Lawrie and Gordon.
Other factors come into play as well. Somebody may be too zealous of a Dodger fan or maybe saw a spectacular game that Lawrie played in the minors.

The percentage players take note of Lawrie and Gordon's adp. These are the type of players that have the potential to fall one or two rounds in a single draft. Although the averages say that there will be three maverick drafters in your draft, there could be six in another Main Event league. While consensus players usually stay within their adp, players like Lawrie and Gordon can sometimes fall in singular drafts.
In the fifth and tenth rounds, somebody in a Main will get Lawrie or Gordon. Maverick owners will think they got 'value' or a bargain, but that owner will feel a little queezy about their bargain. The risk will be wrestled with. It won't be a home run for that drafter. The pick comes with anguish and concern for non-Mavericks, not a fist pump.

I have a private thing where I think that adp does NOT mean 'Always Draft Player here'. It's just an average. Reflective of Maverick owners and risk-averse owners alike. In actuality, an adp is slanted a little towards the cautious drafters since they have larger numbers.
It's tough for these two colliding drafters to see the other side of the Lawrie or Gordon equation. The adp does not tell the whole story for either player.

[Gekko]

lawrie and the young pups are much more rosterable at small stakes, ie slow drafts. tell a novice fantasy baseball player that you paid $1,400+ and you took lawrie in the 3rd, d.gordon in the 6th, etc..., and don't be offended when he chuckles and thinks you are the novice

[The Franchise]

lawrie and the young pups are much more rosterable at small stakes, ie slow drafts. tell a novice fantasy baseball player that you paid $1,400+ and you took lawrie in the 3rd, d.gordon in the 6th, etc..., and don't be offended when he chuckles and thinks you are the novice

3rd Rd? Ha! I bet that in the first weekend Lawrie will go in the 2nd rd in 4 out of the 10 drafts. I understand what you are saying, but sometimes people will look at a players upside and decide he is worth the risk in an overall contest.

[Gekko]

franchise...i made that mistake with beckham last year.

i don't see lawrie going in the 2nd in any draft. if he does, i hope it's in mine! other than being unproven in the majors, the knock on lawrie is he can't stay healthy. come to find out he's already hurt and will likely miss a week or so with a groin injury. think that will cause the jays to let him run less...most liekly. currently, an mri is not scheduled. imagine his adp swing from weekend 1 to weekend 2 if he goes for mri in between weekends. mid 3rd rounder to 5th rounder overnight. again, he was much more rosterable in $150 slow draft than $1,400+ drafts.

along those lines, i wonder how far stanton will fall in weekend 1 and then zoom up in weekend 2?

[The Franchise]

franchise...i made that mistake with beckham last year.

i don't see lawrie going in the 2nd in any draft. if he does, i hope it's in mine! other than being unproven in the majors, the knock on lawrie is he can't stay healthy. come to find out he's already hurt and will likely miss a week or so with a groin injury. think that will cause the jays to let him run less...most liekly. currently, an mri is not scheduled. imagine his adp swing from weekend 1 to weekend 2 if he goes for mri in between weekends. mid 3rd rounder to 5th rounder overnight. again, he was much more rosterable in $150 slow draft than $1,400+ drafts.

along those lines, i wonder how far stanton will fall in weekend 1 and then zoom up in weekend 2?

David Wright could be primed for a free fall. Tough to roster guys when they are currently banged up when you are drafting

[Gekko]

franchise...i made that mistake with beckham last year.

i don't see lawrie going in the 2nd in any draft. if he does, i hope it's in mine! other than being unproven in the majors, the knock on lawrie is he can't stay healthy. come to find out he's already hurt and will likely miss a week or so with a groin injury. think that will cause the jays to let him run less...most liekly. currently, an mri is not scheduled. imagine his adp swing from weekend 1 to weekend 2 if he goes for mri in between weekends. mid 3rd rounder to 5th rounder overnight. again, he was much more rosterable in $150 slow draft than $1,400+ drafts.

along those lines, i wonder how far stanton will fall in weekend 1 and then zoom up in weekend 2?

David Wright could be primed for a free fall. Tough to roster guys when they are currently banged up when you are drafting

right or wrong, in general, i don't like drafting players that are hurt as my "core foundation".