Talk Talk Talk!.....

[DOUGHBOYS]

'Talk Talk Talk....When do we eat!?'
I don't remember the advertiser, but I do remember that a kid was tired of the adults talking and just wanted to get started with his meal.
It's the way I feel about this time of the year. We can critique individual drafts ad nauseum.
It's all meaningless until baseball starts for real.

Now, comes the week between Main Drafts.
There could be a lot of advantages in drafting in either week.
What if Matt Kemp breaks a leg in a spring training game today?
It makes 14 teams in each of the 15 team leagues a little stronger than second week teams.
What if JJ Putz goes down with a season ending injury?
Those who picked up David Hernandez as a half closer have a full blown closer.

In the meantime, second week drafters have the advantage of knowing more information.
Already, Madson is off every list.
They'll keep an eye on Youkilis and Lilly to make sure they're healthy.
They'll drop Travis Snider in drafts knowing that he has lost his spring training battle with Thames.
And that is just the information 48 hours after the first draft.
Other decisions could be made. Clarification in the Royals closer situation could come during the week.
Starting pitcher rotations will be solidified.
Position battles will be won or lost.

Drafting both weekends affords a drafter to structure his second team differently than the first team. If pitching was missed in the first draft, stronger pitching may be the order of the day in the second draft. Or perhaps we're just so frustrated with our first draft that we consider it a 'mulligan'.

Anyway...
I got an e-mail from a drafter who stated that he got bargains according to the NFBC adp in nearly every round.
Umm, big deal.
And that is what I told him. It means nothing.
This is the only time of year where we worry WHERE we drafted a player. When the season begins, and for the next six months, WHO becomes a lot more important.
Mock Draft Central had a thing where we could compare our drafts against there reckonings. Some drafters picked players only to 'win' that draft. Did they really accomplish anything?
No.

I read an analyst who said that Jason Heyward was overdrafted in the eighth round but a bargain in the 12th.
WHAT?
Heyward is the same player either way. For him to say this, he must be very confident that Heyward will finish with 10-11 round numbers. After all, if he's a fourth rounder next year, he'd be a bargain either way. 14th rounder next year, then he's a loser either way. Right?
The analyst should tell the drafter that if the drafter had strong convictions about Heyward to make sure and roster him.
We don't have to live in the box that some analysts construct.

I have the fourth pick next week, so I can say this.
I think Curtis Granderson will be just as good this year as he was last year. If I had a later first round pick, I would take him. Simple as that.
'Regression' is the new buzz word for analysts. I hate it. They said the same thing about Bautista last year. Now that Bautista has done it twice, his numbers are the norm and regression is off the table. It's Silly. Now that Bautista has done it two years, regression is not uttered around his name. He can regress as well as Granderson this year, analysts don't get it.
Players can improve to a new level. But, analysts do not believe that. At least until they've done it twice. It's easier to expect regression and forecast the great last year with year's before numbers and give players like Granderson and Bautista 'Stuck in the Middle With You' numbers.
Analysts Missouri/Missouri players that have played six or seven years. It doesn't work. The reverse is true too.
Adam Dunn is being forecast with 20 home runs this year. Half way between his former production and his number last year.
They may as well be throwing their hands up and saying I don't know or put a ?? instead of 20 home runs for their forecast of his numbers this year.
Maddening.

And here I go again.....
Talk Talk Talk....When do we eat?!

[Ando]

The first meal is served in about 36 hours, Dan!