The 50 Test

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

The 50 Test

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:12 am

I don't do projections. A waste of time, really. We can go into a draft, projections in hand, thinking we've reached all our targets, only to find out that our number one pick, Tulo, has a broken elbow and is out for the year.
This didn't happen, but it could have. Projections do not take into account injuries, underperformance, or even paternity leave.
They are simply manifestations of our thoughts based on previous performance put onto paper or a computer.

I prefer something more tangible.
Pick out your favorite website for projected lineups or write your own. Most lineup projections are similar.
Now, put the batting position number of each of your players by their name.
For instance, Austin Jackson gets a (1) and Miguel Cabrera gets a (3)
Do this for all 14 of your starting offensive players.
I always hope for the number to be 50.
This tells me that I got a lot of players in the top 4 of lineups and that at least some of those are leadoff or second hitters.
50 shows a good mix mix of runs producers and run producers, even with that nasty catcher who bats eighth.
48-52 is excellent
45-55 is good

What was your score?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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NorCalAtlFan
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Re: The 50 Test

Post by NorCalAtlFan » Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:48 am

sounds like you just found a way to do projections in a way that you can say you don't do projections.

if miggy is a 3 and gets hurt, something you don't account for, wouldn't his score be a zero?

just saying. :D

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: The 50 Test

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:47 pm

Projections without projections....I can live with that. :D

As for Miggy, the beauty of the 50 Test is that it's a year long method. Whoever is plugged in for Miggy, that is the new number. For instance, if it's Brandon Inge a (9) results. Only because Inge can go no lower than 9. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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