The best thing about last weekend, of course is seeing again or meeting new friends. Long conversations with Dave Clum has become an annual treat for me. I got to meet Glenn Lowry face-to-face (and side-by-side as he drafted next to me) and I can tell you there may not be a nicer guy in the world. What a true gentleman (except for his nasty habit of poaching my picks)!
Met Greg Churchill too. Besides talking baseball, he was nice enough to give me poker tips. I have proof that if you listen to Shawn Childs, you will make money. I rode Shawn’s coat tails to a nice payout on the second half of the KU-OSU game! One of the greatest pleasures was actually having time to have a complete (and not always baseball) conversation with Steve Jupinka though the star of the show was Steve’s wife. What a lady and Steve, you are one very lucky man. KJ Duke, Dallas, Bob Mazur, Chris Garcia, THE CHAMP Lindy….the list goes on and one and I am leaving out literally dozens of folks. The baseball is one thing, but the people make it worth the trip. And a special shout out to Nick Cassevetes for allowing me to take advantage of our annual social association to give my family the benefit of your vast experience.
A number of folks in Vegas asked me if I was going to do a weekly blog. I am glad that some seemed to enjoy reading the random dribblings I posted last year. I guess this post is the answer, but professionally my situation is changing on June 30th. It is my plan to post as long as my team is relevant, but given my next career move is unknown at this time, I may end up in a spot that the frequency will not be assured, like if I have to travel extensively. I truly like posting as it is cathartic for me and I am glad people seem to enjoy them.
Now to my Main Event Draft out of LV 2, Week 2. I have already mentioned that Glenn was on one side of me. On my other side in the draft was Gaëtan Lavoie. Another great guy and phenomenal fantasy baseball talent. With Rob Silver at the 10 spot, Billy Johnson at 11 (Billy, I cannot recall your partners name, so I apologize) and John Menna at 15, we were definitely the fun/cool end of the table. It was good to see Chad Schroeder again (though he makes for tough competition), but he brought in a 55 gallon drum of energy drink to help him escape the fun of the previous night! I felt bad for Chad (but not too bad)!
Rick Thomas is in our league as well and despite being under the weather and popping DayQuil like a champion still was right on top of his game even if it took him two minutes to pick Jordan Schaefer! In short, another tough league and what promises to be a 26 week marathon for me to try and get the best of some of the continents best fantasy minds.My strategy this year was to target the end of the first round as my preferred drafting spot. Besides the talent I thought would be there at the turn of Rounds 1 and 2, it was really that I thought the other turns (3 to 4, 5 to 6, 7 to 8, and 9 to 10) really allowed me to get the talent I wanted and maybe even set some of the tone in the early part of the draft. I believe that after about 10 rounds, draft spot does not really matter. My goal team-wide was to focus on balanced offensive players (i.e. very few one-hit wonder knuckle-draggers or “Judy’s”) and power-pitchers even if it put my WHIP at risk with some of the later selections. I also wanted a prime catcher who hit up in the power positions of their teams line-ups and one anchor closer with a second closer early in my middle round picks. I wanted three pitching anchors in the top 10 rounds, three more late in the middle rounds, and only one MI early as I thought there was really value at both 2B and SS in the middle rounds. The hole in this strategy is/was that I really could not expect to get a premier first baseman, which means I would start out behind several other teams in that regard. In my opinion, some of the second tier first basemen (Konerko, Davis, Freeman) who were going in the top ten really didn’t appeal to me as value picks there. They seem to be more “I better get a 1B or I may end up with Dunn!” picks. I decided to go for Dunn.
Our draft started off with the first five being pretty much by the book (Kemp, Pujols, Cabrera, Braun, Tulo). In the first round I wanted either CarGo, Ellsbury, or Justin Upton to lock in a high reward balance outfielder. I really could not see a better way to start your team anchored that way. Andrew Robinson, Scott Jenstad, and Rob Silver made sure that didn’t happen. Billy and Gaëtan grabbed the last two consensus 1st round first basemen (Gonzalez and Fielder), so I am staring at either Hanley or Longoria. Hanley with his future duel eligibility has been screaming up the boards. It may be a big mistake, but I am not buying into the acceptance of the position change and love-fest with Ozzie. Also, being unsure of how the new field will play, I just did not feel like pulling the trigger on him. I snagged Longoria whose biggest knock against him is that he never produced true-first round results. He has a rep of being a bit injury prone, too. However, give me a 26 year old with better than three years of major league experience who hit 31 homeruns in less than 500 AB who has sneaky speed and despite last years’ bad luck is has as much 300 hitter potential as anyone. I will take the risk because this is the year. What he has done in the past is good, but I care more about what he can do in 2012. I think he will be so good that he will enter into the conversation for #1 in 2013. I have my anchor cornerman.
However, as much as I like the Longoria pick, he will not give me the speed the others would, though his speed for a CM is excellent. I had seriously considered putting Granderson in with the other elite OFers, so I thought he might make it back to me for consideration (though I would hate to give back some of my BA advantage so early). Not to worry Mr. Menna relieved me of that care with the 16th pick of the draft. OK by me because I wanted Kinsler. Mr. 30/30! I am drooling, waiting to toss his name out in an oh-so-smug way. Poach #1 as Glenn snagged him. Oh, man that hurt! But ok…I pick up my shattered testicles and called out Pedroia, who is much better than a consolation prize. Not much of a downgrade (some would rank Dustin higher than Kinsler) and I now have my anchor MI. But power good, speed off where I wanted to be. I had wanted to be around 50-60 SB at this time and am probably sitting at 30. You have to adjust and that is just what I had time to do as I watched 24 prime players go before my next pick, something I would have to do 12 more times in the draft.
Initially, I was going to use the 3/4 turn to grab a corner (if Panda was available) or another outfielder (like BJ Upton) and a pitcher. Pitcher was of least concern because I thought I would have the choice of three out of the group of Grienke, Hamels, Hernandez, Price, Sabathia, or Haren even if I waited for the fourth round. I did not want to double up as I did not feel I had too. I could have and set a definitive pitcher strength, but the cost would be losing some offensive advantage. In any regard, I tossed more of my strategy out the window and select another MI, Starlin Castro. A risky pick in my opinion as I need him for speed at this juncture. He is no Judy as his power is developing. Out of the three-hole, I just do not know how much he will steal. 20+ SB I think is a lock. I want 30+ to go with 10-15 HR. My BA is looking pretty sweet without Upton dragging it down. On the flip pick, Haren, Price, and Sabathia were available. I wanted/needed Haren. Outside of Texas, that division is horrible. Haren’s first five games may be KC, MIN, OAK, BAL and CLE. You never know what will happen and he could be blown up, but I like his chances. Now we wait…again.
On 5/6, I wanted another pitcher and my big-bang catcher. Again pitching was not my concern first as I thought I would have choice from among a couple of the likes of Lester, Shields, Johnson, Cain, Wilson, Bumgarner, or Kennedy. Ideally I would have liked to snagged Wieters as the catcher as I had him ranked higher than Miguel Montero and Mauer (not a banger, but if I had snagged BJ, I might have needed his BA). Rob Silver, who by this time has just about the team I would have picked for myself ideally (Justin Upton, McCutchen, Sandoval, and Price), snagged Wieters too, so I grabbed Montero, who again is more than just a consolation prize as he will bat up in Arizona and is in his walk year. Only ended up with a choice of two pitchers (Johnson or Kennedy unless I had chosen to expand my parameters to include two unproven MLB talents like Moore and Darvish…which is not my style). Dave Clum convinced me that Johnson was healthy (so it is your fault if I do not win, Dave
), so I chose Johnson. If I am right about Haren and Josh Johnson, I have two #1 starters to anchor my staff. If I am wrong, well I am pretty much screwed.The next turn, 7/8, was where I was going to pick up my first MI and my third outfielder. Then, just before I flew out, I changed my mind and was going to grab an anchor closer to go with the MI type. Because I already had two MI, I ended up taking the closer and an outfielder. I had the closers I wanted (accepting Kimbrel was going to be long gone) ranked Papelbon, Rivera, and Axford. Neither Papelbon nor Rivera made it to me. I had my eye on two outfielders, contract year Andre Ethier and Corey Hart, who was my real preference as he fit into my balanced approach. John Menna already had two outfielders and Glenn none, and neither had a closer, so I thought at least one of those two OF types would make it back to me and probably not the closer, so I took Axford. Of course, Ethier nor Hart (snagged by Glenn for poach #2) made it back to me. I took a true consolation prize in Werth. Not exactly whom I had hoped to be my 1st outfielder. Suddenly Granderson is looking good! Probably my best option other than Werth would have been Heyward. I may be an Atlanta fan and long-term Heyward will be a stud, but I just am not a believer in him this year. I do not believe the odds are good that he will hit in a key line-up power position this year (i.e. third or fourth) and I do not believe his BA will arrive for a few months at least. Werth has bounce back potential and I hope he reaches it. He may not hit .300, bang 30 and steal 20, but .270/25/15 is doable.
At 9/10, I wanted another starter and another outfielder. OF is not going to be an obvious strength for my team given I have lost out on the top 15 already, so I am going to stick to my balanced approach. The starter I want I felt was pretty safe. Glenn already had two starters as had John. Neither had a closer. Walden and Bell had be picked as the draft SLOWLY made it’s way back to us, so I really thought they would both be thinking closer/offense and not starter. So I mistakenly decided to wait on my starter and took the highest ranked OFer left (IMO) Nick Markakis. I have always been a fan of Markakis and always thought he would be more of a power hitter, but he is what he his. Another balance player who can hit .290 with 20 HR and 10 (15 please?) stolen bases. Of course, the pitcher I wanted, Max Scherzer whom I am VERY high on this year (27, live arm, playing for Detroit in what promises to be a weak division), didn’t make it to me. Even with the guy at 15 taking TWO closers, Glenn did not feel the heat and pulled off Poach #3. He was killing me at this time. I admit this pick threw me a little. I had one minute to change my strategy on the fly. The other starters out there would be out there in Round 11. I liked where my offense was so I did not really feel pressure to grab another OF or CM. I decided the best way to strengthen my team at this time was to grab another top closer. Only eight or nine closers had gone by then and if a closer run came late 10/early 11, I would have been left holding onto another type of johnson. I had my choice of Brian Wilson, Sergio Santos, JJ Putz or Andrew Bailey as the highest closers I had ranked. I chose the Bearded One in a close one over Santos.
No one player is dominating my stats, but all are contributing at this point. I am short one area and that is starting pitching. I have two top-tier closers, two top-tier MI, close to if not the top 3rd baseman, two top starters, a stud catcher, and two solid outfielders. Going into the next ten rounds, I need to shore up my starters, find a first baseman, solidify my outfield with other #2 or #3 type players at that position, and slip Glenn Lowry a Mickey Finn.
The eleventh started off with a bang when Team One picked Adam Dunn, whom I had set my team up to grab at the 13/14 turn. Not to be. Since my last pick, a majority of the offensive picks were MI (4) and OF (4), starters (2 of which I was only interested in one) and the expected closer run (maybe started by the three that went on the 9/10 turn) happened where ELEVEN closers went. I needed a starter and I thought the best left was Shaun Marcum. I had him last year and he wore down a bit, especially with his KO rate. Still, he may be no Scherzer, but he is at least a serviceable #3. Of the outfielders who were taken after my tenth pick, the one I wanted, Delmon Young, was still there at 12, so I snagged him. He has not stolen many bases the last couple of years, but it would not surprise me if he stole 10 (probably 5) to go with a .280 BA and 20 homeruns. To me, another balance guy.
Strategy wise, the next two picks closed up the core of my team. The rest would be pure CM, MI, fourth OF types for offense and higher strikeout/WHIP risk type pitchers. My 13th pick was one that I got back from my good buddy Glenn. I thought the best first basemen left was Lucas Duda whom I think will give pretty much the same stats as the Freeman/Ike Davis types though I got him much later. At 14, I wanted to lock up my catcher position with Russell Martin. I like the team he plays on and the fact he is in a walk year means to me he could hit 15 homers and steal 5 or more bases, though I view him as my first potential BA drain.
Now I am filling holes. Of my next four picks, I grab three starters, two of whom I targeted (Billingsley and Dempster). Billy and his partner scoffed at my Billingsley pick as one might imagine from long-suffering LA Dodger fans, but to me, if Hanson can improve his mechanics, why not Billingsley. He has sucked all spring, so this is a risky pick. I still, however, like his upside. I would love a repeat of 2010. Dempster just keeps plugging along, striking out around 200 but again he’s a walker. The third pitcher was Justin Masterson, a big guy with a reasonable arm that could be a stud if he could just get a left-handed batter out. With Dempster, wins could be an issue, though Masterson has more upside entering his age-27 year. I also picked up Alejandro De Aza because offensively, I think my biggest weakness now is steals. Given his home park, I do not expect him to be a Judy as 10 homers are possible. I hope that his second half OBP holds up and he steals at least 30 if not 40 out of the lead-off spot.
My CM and MI spots were taken back to back at 19/20 with Chase Headley (batting third in that line-up and a solid speed source at the CM position) and my Jawja boy Gordon Beckham. Beckham is a gamer that I hope will revert back to what he showed second half of 2009. Coming off two off years, I also hope being Ozzie-less will help. My final OF and UT spots will be filled from a few more 1B/OF West Coast types like Aubrey Huff (even year guys!), Juan Rivera, and Jesus Guzman. Yuniesky Betancourt will back-up my MI, especially after he gets 2B eligibility. My long-term project is Trevor Plouffe. Currently SS eligible, the Twinkies are moving him to the OF where he will be fighting Revere and Doumit for AB if he stays up.
I also picked up Ivan Nova (2H last year version please), Homer Bailey (still like his stuff) and another contract year baby in Joe Blanton, who may be too valuable to the Phillies as a trading chip to keep him as a fifth starter. Finally I took Joachim Benoit because I think Valverde is in trouble and Kevin Slowey for no other reason except I was tired. He will be my first drop.
From Shawn’s website, he had written an article about how he target HR and SB by three general groups like 2B/SS/MI, 1B/3B/CM/C, and OF/UT. For example, he might target SB for his MI types at a total of 75, CM/C 15, OF/UT 90 to get his 180 SB for the year. I sort of did the same thing. My OF types came up short of the 100/100 I wanted out of them. By how much depends on how many steals shy of 40 De Aza is. I am pretty confident he can steal 30. I need him to run like the wind, bulls eye, but believe you me, I will be trolling the free agents for a little more speed. Some of the shortfall will be made up from excess I will get over the 15 SB I budgeted at the CM spot. The homeruns I believe I can make up as I think catchers will exceed the 30 I targeted for them and I think I have been very conservative with the HR I think I will get out of my MI. Overall, I am targeting 260 HR and 180 SB.
For pitching, I am concerned I have one too many WHIP killers. I think that three of my top six each have 200+K potential, the other three 150+K. With 75 each out of my closers, that would put me at about 1,200 K’s. My seventh starter then could be focused on mitigating the WHIP challenged Billingsley and Dempster since I only need about 100 K’s to hit my 1,300 target. I have too many 5th starters so I will be trolling for an impact starter as well.
Anyway, that is what I think of my draft. I will do my auction team too, but only when I am ready to be in a bad mood. Here is hoping no one needs the insurance this year!
but to get these gremlins out of my chest 
No easy task. The one good thing is that the last two overall champions have come out of your leagues, so if history repeats itself once again, I'll have a 1 in 15 shot at the grand prize. 
