Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Wed Mar 01, 2006 8:38 pm

I am putting together a column for CREATiVESPORTS.com, and can use your assistance. I have always wondered which is more important, accurately projecting a player's statistics, or putting to use these projections. Obviously, the combination of the two is likely the key to winning the league.

My theory is that while preparation is key, most of us likely have somewhat similar projections and/or ranking for players, but the difference between winning and losing is not the actual projecting, but rather how you utilize the projections.

To that extent, I wanted to perform a test, to be published as part of my column, to see how varied the teams would be, and how varied the standings will be, given the fact that each team would be given completely accurate projections (or in this case, retroactive stats).

I am using last year's (2005 season) statistics, and asking you (if you have the desire and time), to pick one 1b, one 2b, one 3b, one SS, three OF and one Utility Player, as well as six pitchers (any combination of starters and/or relievers) from the list below.

I am using the standard NFBC 5 x 5 scoring, of course.

I will take as many teams as those wishing to spend the time in putting together a team. When the teams are submitted, I will crunch the numbers and use it for my column (which will be found found, free, at http://www.creativesports.com).

I anticipate quite a divergence with the teams. I also realize that one of the important skills involved in a draft or auction is the ability to anticipate what the other owners are and will be doing, and to react to that. Yes, I realize that this test does not take that, or a number of different things into account.

Nonethelss, if my hypothesis is correct, and if he plays, I am guessing that Shawn Childs will end up with the first place team. I am also guessing the GG will not have the time to play.

Tom and Greg, I realize that you are both swamped, but if you could find the time to submit a team, I would greatly appreciate it as well.

If you wish to submit a team (there is absolutely nothing to win), please e-mail it to me at [email protected]. I will take all teams submitted by March 9.

Here are the players and the stats

code:

FIRST BASE Team AB R H HR RBI SB AVG

Todd Helton COL 509 92 163 20 79 3 .320

Chad Tracy ARI 503 73 155 27 72 3 .308

Lance Berkman HOU 468 76 137 24 82 4 .293

Jay Gibbons BAL 488 72 135 26 79 0 .277

Darin Erstad LAA 609 86 166 7 66 10 .273

Adam Dunn CIN 543 107 134 40 101 4 .247

SECOND BASE Team AB R H HR RBI SB AVG

Chone Figgins LAA 642 113 186 8 57 62 .290

Chase Utley PHI 543 93 158 28 105 16 .291

Jeff Kent LAD 553 100 160 29 105 6 .289

Brian Roberts BAL 561 92 176 18 73 27 .314

Alfonso Soriano WAS 637 102 171 36 104 30 .268

Tadahito Iguchi CWS 511 74 142 15 71 15 .278

THIRD BASE Team AB R H HR RBI SB AVG

Jorge Cantú TB 598 73 171 28 117 1 .286

Troy Glaus TOR 538 78 139 37 97 4 .258

Aramis Ramírez CHC 463 72 140 31 92 0 .302

Bill Hall MIL 501 69 146 17 62 18 .291

Melvin Mora BAL 593 86 168 27 88 7 .283

SHORT STOP Team AB R H HR RBI SB AVG

Derek Jeter NYY 654 122 202 19 70 14 .309

Miguel Tejada BAL 654 89 199 26 98 5 .304

Julio Lugo TB 616 89 182 6 57 39 .295

Felipe López CIN 580 97 169 23 85 15 .291

Jimmy Rollins PHI 677 115 196 12 54 41 .290

José Reyes NYM 696 99 190 7 58 60 .273

OUTFIELD Team AB R H HR RBI SB AVG

Johnny Damon NYY 624 117 197 10 75 18 .316

Matt Holliday COL 479 68 147 19 87 14 .307

Brady Clark MIL 599 94 183 13 53 10 .306

Ichiro Suzuki SEA 679 111 206 15 68 33 .303

Ken Griffey Jr. CIN 491 85 148 35 92 0 .301

Coco Crisp BOS 594 86 178 16 69 15 .300

Scott Podsednik CWS 507 80 147 0 25 59 .290

Juan Pierre CHC 656 96 181 2 47 57 .276

Vernon Wells TOR 620 78 167 28 97 8 .269

Carlos Lee MIL 618 85 164 32 114 13 .265

Andruw Jones ATL 586 95 154 51 128 5 .263

Cliff Floyd NYM 550 85 150 34 98 12 .273

Jim Edmonds STL 467 88 123 29 89 5 .263

Hideki Matsui NYY 629 108 192 23 116 2 .305

Willy Taveras HOU 592 82 172 3 29 34 .291

UTILITY Players Team AB R H HR RBI SB AVG

Alex Rodriguez NYY 605 124 194 48 130 21 .321

David Ortiz BOS 601 119 180 47 148 1 .300

Derrek Lee CHC 594 120 199 46 107 15 .335

Mark Teixeira TEX 644 112 194 43 144 4 .301

Albert Pujols STL 591 129 195 41 117 16 .330

PITCHERS Team W S IP K ERA WHIP

Bartolo Colón LAA 21 0 222.2 157 3.48 1.16

Cliff Lee CLE 18 0 202.0 143 3.79 1.22

Chris Capuano MIL 18 0 219.0 176 3.99 1.38

Randy Johnson NYY 17 0 225.2 211 3.79 1.13

Doug Davis MIL 11 0 222.2 208 3.84 1.30

Brett Myers PHI 13 0 215.1 208 3.72 1.21

Mark Prior CHC 11 0 166.2 188 3.67 1.21

Roy Halladay TOR 12 0 141.2 108 2.41 0.96

Rich Harden OAK 10 0 128.0 121 2.53 1.06

Kevin Millwood TEX 9 0 192.0 146 2.86 1.22

Carlos Silva MIN 9 0 188.1 71 3.44 1.17

Jon Lieber PHI 17 0 218.1 149 4.20 1.21

Tim Wakefield BOS 16 0 225.1 151 4.15 1.23

Jeff Suppan STL 16 0 194.1 114 3.57 1.38

José Contreras CWS 15 0 204.2 154 3.61 1.23

C.C. Sabathia CLE 15 0 196.2 161 4.03 1.26

Jeff Weaver LAA 14 0 224.0 157 4.22 1.17

Bob Wickman CLE 0 45 62.0 41 2.47 1.26

Danys Baez LAD 5 41 72.1 51 2.86 1.33

Trevor Hoffman SD 1 43 57.2 54 2.97 1.11

Dust Hermanson CWS 2 34 57.1 33 2.04 1.10

B.J. Ryan TOR 1 36 70.1 100 2.43 1.14

Huston Street OAK 5 23 78.1 72 1.72 1.01

Scot Shields LAA 10 7 91.2 98 2.75 1.12

Jesse Crain MIN 12 1 79.2 25 2.71 1.13

[/QUOTE]Thanks in advance for your assistance.

Buster

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:08 am

Four responses (teams) already. You guys rock!! Keep those teams coming. Thanks again.

Buster

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:57 am

this exercise doesn't prove a thing. waste of time

devilznj · Post by **devilznj** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:08 am

until opening day, everything is a waste of time.

just comes down to personal preference on how you want to waste your time.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:12 am

Originally posted by devilznj:

until opening day, everything is a waste of time.

don't agree with that. sorry

Terry H · Post by **Terry H** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:29 am

Originally posted by devilznj:

until opening day, everything is a waste of time.

just comes down to personal preference on how you want to waste your time. Some people would rather waste their time as message board motor mouths! :rolleyes:

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:47 am

Originally posted by Terry Haney:

quote:Originally posted by devilznj:

until opening day, everything is a waste of time.

just comes down to personal preference on how you want to waste your time. Some people would rather waste their time as message board motor mouths! :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]no wasting in that. everything i do has a purpose.

now if you want to talk about waste - is your signature true? 2005 LV NL Auction- Last Place

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:11 am

Gekko:

I am surprised, and not surprised.

I am surprised that you cannot find the value in this exercise. I won't bother to explain it to you, as it is clear that you don't care.

I am not surprised that you are not participating, though. With your self-serving, self-effectuated image, there is nothing for you to gain in this exercise. If you didn't win, you would have to deal with the fact that you were not the best. It is, quite clearly, easier for you to sit back and claim to be the best, smartest, etc., and then when you fail to win, blame injuries, bad luck, etc.

Here, there would be no injuries, no bad luck, and no surprises. The stats are all there. All you need to do is put them together in the most effective way to beat the other players. Granted, it is blind, so you don't know what the other owners are doing. Kind of like your BBDS, or the NFBC's FAAB.

Participate if you like, but I'm willing to bet that you won't win. We have far too many bright owners and if past history is any indication, you just don't have it in baseball.

Go ahead and ridicule me, the idea, and/or the column. Just be warned that a one-legged man has a better chance in a butt kicking contest, than you do of beating me in a war of words.

Buster

Terry H · Post by **Terry H** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:54 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Terry Haney:

quote:Originally posted by devilznj:

until opening day, everything is a waste of time.

just comes down to personal preference on how you want to waste your time. Some people would rather waste their time as message board motor mouths! :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]no wasting in that. everything i do has a purpose.

now if you want to talk about waste - is your signature true? 2005 LV NL Auction- Last Place [/QUOTE]Gee does the shoe fit? I wasn't necessarily referring to you.

Sadly, signature is true. Unlike yourself I'm not the boastful type.

As for it being a waste? The enjoyment of the competition, the camaraderie with league mates, the lessons learned from a disappointing season, all in all made for a pleasurable experience, surpassing the expense, so not really a waste.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:39 am

Originally posted by Terry Haney:

Sadly, signature is true. Unlike yourself I'm not the boastful type.

As for it being a waste? The enjoyment of the competition, the camaraderie with league mates, the lessons learned from a disappointing season, all in all made for a pleasurable experience, surpassing the expense, so not really a waste. Good answer, also note that Terry won that same lge in 2004, so he remains in the black financially as well.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:41 am

Originally posted by Buster:

Gekko:

I am surprised, and not surprised.

I am surprised that you cannot find the value in this exercise. I won't bother to explain it to you, as it is clear that you don't care.

I am not surprised that you are not participating, though. With your self-serving, self-effectuated image, there is nothing for you to gain in this exercise. If you didn't win, you would have to deal with the fact that you were not the best. It is, quite clearly, easier for you to sit back and claim to be the best, smartest, etc., and then when you fail to win, blame injuries, bad luck, etc.

Here, there would be no injuries, no bad luck, and no surprises. The stats are all there. All you need to do is put them together in the most effective way to beat the other players. Granted, it is blind, so you don't know what the other owners are doing. Kind of like your BBDS, or the NFBC's FAAB.

Participate if you like, but I'm willing to bet that you won't win. We have far too many bright owners and if past history is any indication, you just don't have it in baseball.

Go ahead and ridicule me, the idea, and/or the column. Just be warned that a one-legged man has a better chance in a butt kicking contest, than you do of beating me in a war of words.

Buster your exercise has ZERO value. i won't bother to explain it to you, as it is clear that you don't see it that way. of course i wouldn't win...cause i wouldn't play.

my past history...well i beat some very notable folks last year, even with thome and foulke being negative values.

as far as me blaming injuries, what the heck else am i going to blame last year when rocks like thome and foulke were hurt and performed like chit?

you beat me in a war of words? go ahead and try.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:46 am

Originally posted by Terry Haney:

Gee does the shoe fit? I wasn't necessarily referring to you.

lol! sorry terry, i think everyone is out to get me

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:46 am

Buster, I will submit a team with a request, I would like to see your column.

The last time I participated for a creative column, the expert/nfbc mock draft a few weeks ago, I didnt see or hear one thing about it from them afterword. A bit disappointing that I would spend 3 hours of my time partcipating and they don't even have the courtesy of forwarding me the article.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:59 am

KJ Duke:

No problem. I am not certain as to what event you were involved previously, but my columns do come out weekly (or some might say weakly). I have not started baseball yet, and this will be my first baseball column of the season. I am anticipating a publish date around March 15, but much depends on the other content on CREATiVESPORTS.com.

For all that are participating, I will also forward the raw data, each teams' picks, and the standings, all prior to the column posting. If you prefer to use a pseudonym, please let me know.

As an added bonus, I will buy a steak dinner (either the night before the NFBC draft, or the night of the NFBC draft) for the person who submits the winning team, in LAS VEGAS. If the winning team doesn't come from a Vegas participant, I will buy dinner for the highest ranked team that does participate in the NFBC draft in Vegas.

Best of luck, and please keep those entries coming in. I am amazed at the response, thanks again.

Buster

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:08 am

Originally posted by Buster:

KJ Duke:

No problem. I am not certain as to what event you were involved previously, but my columns do come out weekly (or some might say weakly). I have not started baseball yet, and this will be my first baseball column of the season. I am anticipating a publish date around March 15, but much depends on the other content on CREATiVESPORTS.com.

For all that are participating, I will also forward the raw data, each teams' picks, and the standings, all prior to the column posting. If you prefer to use a pseudonym, please let me know.

As an added bonus, I will buy a steak dinner (either the night before the NFBC draft, or the night of the NFBC draft) for the person who submits the winning team, in LAS VEGAS. If the winning team doesn't come from a Vegas participant, I will buy dinner for the highest ranked team that does participate in the NFBC draft in Vegas.

Best of luck, and please keep those entries coming in. I am amazed at the response, thanks again.

Buster Thanks Buster, I will submit the winning team shortly.

As for the mock I was in, I went to the creative site to see if they had written on it. They were using it as an incentive to get people to sign up to the NFBC through them, and said it was otherwise not available. I'd still like to see it ([email protected]) if available, but I appreciate your courtesy in filling us in on your new column.

Terry H · Post by **Terry H** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:11 am

Originally posted by Buster:

As an added bonus, I will buy a steak dinner (either the night before the NFBC draft, or the night of the NFBC draft) for the person who submits the winning team, in LAS VEGAS.

Buster [/QB]So there is a prize.

I'll forward my team. Will I be able to pick the restaurant?

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:49 am

Terry:

Buy you another dinner???

I was thinking of the All American Grill at the Rio. Nice steaks, good atmosphere, off the strip.

If you have other ideas, let me know.

Buster

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:50 am

Originally posted by Buster:

Terry:

Buy you another dinner???

I was thinking of the All American Grill at the Rio. Nice steaks, good atmosphere, off the strip.

If you have other ideas, let me know.

Buster Antonio's at the Rio.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:04 am

Thanks Buster, I will submit the winning team shortly.

As for the mock I was in, I went to the creative site to see if they had written on it. They were using it as an incentive to get people to sign up to the NFBC through them, and said it was otherwise not available. I'd still like to see it ([email protected]) if available, but I appreciate your courtesy in filling us in on your new column. I will try to find out the status of the draft column, and will let you know.

Buster

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:14 am

Terry and John,

Don't worry about the restaurant unless you'd like to join Buster and I while you pay your own way.

bowlingfool · Post by **bowlingfool** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:37 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

lol! sorry terry, i think everyone is out to get me

GG, just 'cuz you THINK everyone is out to get you, doesn't mean they AREN'T out to get you. They might actually be out there, waiting.....

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:53 pm

Hello, all.

I helped organize the mock draft to which KJ Duke refers and need to clear up a couple of things. First of all, to the best of my knowledge, no one said the mock was being done for a column. As noted above, it has been provided as a benefit to new NFBC signups via CREATiVESPORTS.

Regarding not getting feedback about the mock, I sent the following note and spreadsheet of the mock on February 16 to KJ Duke at the same email address listed above, as well as to Buster and the other 12 mock participants. Apparently, this was either ignored or forgotten, as none of the 14 emails bounced.

"On behalf of Lawr Michaels and all of us at CREATiVESPORTS, I want to thank you for participating in our mock draft held Monday night. You are a very efficient and interesting crew!

Special thanks to Greg and Tom for organizing the group and to Jason and Geoff for facilitation and the use of their fine facility.

Please find a copy of the draft spreadsheet results attached.

Best of luck to all in the 2006 NFBC (unless we're in the same league, in which case, the gloves come off!).

Brian Walton"

KJ Duke, I resent that same email and spreadsheet to you again just now. Thank you for participating, despite the complaints!

Brian

[ March 02, 2006, 07:04 PM: Message edited by: brian ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:59 pm

Originally posted by bowlingfool:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

lol! sorry terry, i think everyone is out to get me

GG, just 'cuz you THINK everyone is out to get you, doesn't mean they AREN'T out to get you. They might actually be out there, waiting.....

[/QUOTE]hopefully the people waiting for me are strippers

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:04 pm

Originally posted by brian:

Hello, all.

I helped organize the mock draft to which KJ Duke refers and need to clear up a couple of things. First of all, no one said the mock was being done for a column. As noted above, it has been provided as a benefit to new NFBC signups via CREATiVESPORTS.

Regarding not getting feedback about the mock, I sent the following note and spreadsheet of the mock on February 16 to KJ Duke at the same email address listed above, as well as to Buster and the other 12 mock participants. Apparently, this was either ignored or forgotten, as none of the 14 emails bounced.

"On behalf of Lawr Michaels and all of us at CREATiVESPORTS, I want to thank you for participating in our mock draft held Monday night. You are a very efficient and interesting crew!

Special thanks to Greg and Tom for organizing the group and to Jason and Geoff for facilitation and the use of their fine facility.

Please find a copy of the draft spreadsheet results attached.

Best of luck to all in the 2006 NFBC (unless we're in the same league, in which case, the gloves come off!).

Brian Walton"

KJ Duke, I resent that same email and spreadsheet to you again just now. Thank you for participating, despite the complaints!

Brian Brian, I guess I misunderstood the purpose of the mock.

I enjoyed the draft, but I was looking forward to creative's analysis of it. If nothing was written, I have no complaint. Sorry.

And Brian, I do recall receiving the above email from you. I should've checked with you directly rather than making a flip comment on the MB. In the future I'll give you guys the benefit of the doubt.

[ March 03, 2006, 12:38 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:03 pm

No problem. Now that Buster has reminded me that I have to start getting "creative" soon, maybe I can cook up a column based on that mock, after all...

Brian