hopefully the people waiting for me are STRIPPERS
Reason #2 why Vegas is the best town to draft for the NFBC!!!![ March 02, 2006, 08:13 PM: Message edited by: bowlingfool ]
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
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bowlingfool
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
hopefully the people waiting for me are STRIPPERS Reason #2 why Vegas is the best town to draft for the NFBC!!!!
[ March 02, 2006, 08:13 PM: Message edited by: bowlingfool ]
hopefully the people waiting for me are STRIPPERS
Reason #2 why Vegas is the best town to draft for the NFBC!!!![ March 02, 2006, 08:13 PM: Message edited by: bowlingfool ]
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
[QUOTE]... i think everyone is out to get me It's called paranoia:
1.A psychotic disorder characterized by delusions of persecution with or without grandeur.
2.Extreme, irrational distrust of others.
Let's see how would you say it? Moo ha-ha, Moo ha-ha
[QUOTE]... i think everyone is out to get me
It's called paranoia:1.A psychotic disorder characterized by delusions of persecution with or without grandeur.
2.Extreme, irrational distrust of others.
Let's see how would you say it? Moo ha-ha, Moo ha-ha
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Gordon Gekko
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by Terry Haney:
It's called paranoia:
1.A psychotic disorder characterized by delusions of persecution with or without grandeur.
2.Extreme, irrational distrust of others.
Let's see how would you say it? Moo ha-ha, Moo ha-ha trust no one - fox mulder
It's called paranoia:
1.A psychotic disorder characterized by delusions of persecution with or without grandeur.
2.Extreme, irrational distrust of others.
Let's see how would you say it? Moo ha-ha, Moo ha-ha trust no one - fox mulder
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Walla Walla
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Buster, Maybe GG has it right. If this is to help your readers it won't do much. Someone could load the stat's into a computer and spit out a team. In real drafts that doesn't happen. You don't have final stats and you don't know what injuries will happen. In the NFBC you have one minute to decide which player to take. No computer will tell you the final stats only what the projected stats should be. As we all know projected stats can go out the window. It's the chicken or the egg question really.
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nydownunder
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Buster,
I think if everyone spent enough time on selecting a team they may all select the winning team or very close.
Do you have a way to determine how many points for each category? For example if Mg1 is marginally ahead of Mg2 in stats A but marginally behind Mgr2 in Stat B, who really is ahead of the other. Keep in mind the cumulative stats of each submission is not going to be normally distributed as most league finishes are.
It's too late now, and probably rather time consuming, but I would have put a hypothetical into this study by stating you are Mgr #8 in a 15 team league, and such players will be available in rounds so-and-so through so-and-so. You can select such players in each round if they are deemed available.
I think this may do a better job in what you are trying to achieve here, which is - are projections more important than strategy? If projections (player values) are more important, then you would just pick the highest (value) available player at each pick. If not, then your other option is to base you picks more on strategy which in most cases is based on position scarcity and/or abundance.
I think the overall finishes of the top 30 managers over the last two years, as a whole, makes this answer rather obvious.
I think if everyone spent enough time on selecting a team they may all select the winning team or very close.
Do you have a way to determine how many points for each category? For example if Mg1 is marginally ahead of Mg2 in stats A but marginally behind Mgr2 in Stat B, who really is ahead of the other. Keep in mind the cumulative stats of each submission is not going to be normally distributed as most league finishes are.
It's too late now, and probably rather time consuming, but I would have put a hypothetical into this study by stating you are Mgr #8 in a 15 team league, and such players will be available in rounds so-and-so through so-and-so. You can select such players in each round if they are deemed available.
I think this may do a better job in what you are trying to achieve here, which is - are projections more important than strategy? If projections (player values) are more important, then you would just pick the highest (value) available player at each pick. If not, then your other option is to base you picks more on strategy which in most cases is based on position scarcity and/or abundance.
I think the overall finishes of the top 30 managers over the last two years, as a whole, makes this answer rather obvious.
Wagga Wagga Dingoes (NY#4)
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Thank you all for your constructive comments. Please allow me to put this experiment/test into perspective.
CREATiVESPORTS.com has a varied readership. Many (at least I hope many) NFBC participants peruse the site. From my experience in fantasy sports, the NFBC participants are among the most knowledgeable and dedicated fantasy players anywhere.
If I wrote only for the NFBC players, my columns would be different than they are. However, in addition to the NFBC readers, we have readers who are fantasy fanatics, readers who are general sports fans, readers who play fantasy sports with friends in less competitive leagues, and readers who haven’t yet pulled the trigger on playing fantasy sports, but who are interested.
I do not profess to tell the NFBC participants how to draft. While I have had a modicum of success in this competition (less than some, more than others), I do not claim to know more about how to draft than any of you. What I want to do, and with your help I think I will be successful, is to demonstrate even in a rudimentary fashion, that there is more to drafting a team than making a cheat sheet and drafting the best available player.
I think anyone who is willing to plunk down $1,250.00 probably knows that taking the highest rated player on his (or her) cheat sheet each time it is his (or her) turn to draft is going to be a recipe for disaster. In a league where there is no trading, drafting 100 more home runs than the next highest team is just as good as drafting 10 more home runs than the next highest team.
The question then becomes, “Which is more important, accurate projections, or utilizing those projections?”
As Walla correctly points out, it is a “chicken and the egg” scenario. If your projections are much further off than the rest of the league, it doesn’t really matter how well you balance your team. If you projected Adrian Beltre to hit 48 home runs and bat .334 again in 2005 (following his breakout 2004 season), you were probably doomed from the start.
So, without reasonable projections, you already have one foot in the proverbial fantasy grave. I think that goes without saying. However, (as is probably clear to all of you), even if you have reasonable projections, then you still have to know how to apply these projections to put together a winning team.
Yet, when you talk to fantasy players, most spend at least 90% of their available fantasy time getting projections, tweaking projections, checking out cheat sheets, tweaking cheat sheets, etc. Is this time well spent? That depends upon the individual. However, my feeling is that some of that valuable preparation time should be spent looking not only at projections, position scarcity, etc., but also at figuring out how to best compose a team that will compete in your chosen league.
For example, if you are drafting 15 and 16 in the league, and both Chone Figgins and Jose Reyes are available, and for some reason, they are both the top two players remaining on your cheat sheet, are you going to draft both of them? Sure, you will win SB by a landslide, but your HR and RBI totals are going to suffer, as you don’t pick again until pick #45. Should you draft directly from your cheat sheet, without regard to position, or each players’ relative strong categories? What happens to that hypothetical team if pick #45 comes around, and Scott Podsednik is the highest remaining player on the cheat sheet?
Ideally, I would have wanted to do an entire retro-draft, using the 2005 statistics. However, this late in the game, with the NFBC draft just two weeks away, I did not believe that I could find 14 willing, knowledgeable, participants. As a result, I am using this very brief test to demonstrate to my readers that even with perfect projections (using last years’ as a basis), every team is going to construct differently, and the construction of a team is of utmost importance.
Much of this is obvious to all of you. However, think back of your home leagues wherein (I am willing to bet) the same few people win every year. The perennial losers will buy different magazines, check out different sites, and perhaps even adopt different strategies each year. Yet, no matter what, those perennial losers are going to continue to lose, and those perennial winners are going to continue to win. It’s not all about projections, but rather projections coupled with how you use them.
Now, I could have written the column without any basis, just including my opinions as stated above. However, that is no different than Gekko boasting about how good he is, or stating that someone’s team is worthy of a score of four out of ten.
No one seriously considers Gekko’s opinions, because they are opinions, only. Why consider my opinions without some data? Is the data that I am developing perfect? Certainly not. I will be the first to admit that, and will explain that in detail in the column. However, I can demonstrate that even given perfect projections, each team will be constructed differently, and the construction is a key element to forming a fantasy team.
When I took the California Bar Exam oh so many years ago, our professors told us to quit studying about three days before the test. Go out, enjoy ourselves, get some sun and clear our minds. On that note, I firmly believe that absent adjustments for spring injuries and depth chart changes, fantasy players need to step away from their cheat sheets and projections at some time before the draft, and spend some time figuring out how to best apply those numbers to best compile the most effective team.
That is the purpose of this experiment, and I want to thank the over two dozen people who have already submitted a team to help form the basis of this column, and urge the rest of you to also submit if your time permits.
Buster
CREATiVESPORTS.com has a varied readership. Many (at least I hope many) NFBC participants peruse the site. From my experience in fantasy sports, the NFBC participants are among the most knowledgeable and dedicated fantasy players anywhere.
If I wrote only for the NFBC players, my columns would be different than they are. However, in addition to the NFBC readers, we have readers who are fantasy fanatics, readers who are general sports fans, readers who play fantasy sports with friends in less competitive leagues, and readers who haven’t yet pulled the trigger on playing fantasy sports, but who are interested.
I do not profess to tell the NFBC participants how to draft. While I have had a modicum of success in this competition (less than some, more than others), I do not claim to know more about how to draft than any of you. What I want to do, and with your help I think I will be successful, is to demonstrate even in a rudimentary fashion, that there is more to drafting a team than making a cheat sheet and drafting the best available player.
I think anyone who is willing to plunk down $1,250.00 probably knows that taking the highest rated player on his (or her) cheat sheet each time it is his (or her) turn to draft is going to be a recipe for disaster. In a league where there is no trading, drafting 100 more home runs than the next highest team is just as good as drafting 10 more home runs than the next highest team.
The question then becomes, “Which is more important, accurate projections, or utilizing those projections?”
As Walla correctly points out, it is a “chicken and the egg” scenario. If your projections are much further off than the rest of the league, it doesn’t really matter how well you balance your team. If you projected Adrian Beltre to hit 48 home runs and bat .334 again in 2005 (following his breakout 2004 season), you were probably doomed from the start.
So, without reasonable projections, you already have one foot in the proverbial fantasy grave. I think that goes without saying. However, (as is probably clear to all of you), even if you have reasonable projections, then you still have to know how to apply these projections to put together a winning team.
Yet, when you talk to fantasy players, most spend at least 90% of their available fantasy time getting projections, tweaking projections, checking out cheat sheets, tweaking cheat sheets, etc. Is this time well spent? That depends upon the individual. However, my feeling is that some of that valuable preparation time should be spent looking not only at projections, position scarcity, etc., but also at figuring out how to best compose a team that will compete in your chosen league.
For example, if you are drafting 15 and 16 in the league, and both Chone Figgins and Jose Reyes are available, and for some reason, they are both the top two players remaining on your cheat sheet, are you going to draft both of them? Sure, you will win SB by a landslide, but your HR and RBI totals are going to suffer, as you don’t pick again until pick #45. Should you draft directly from your cheat sheet, without regard to position, or each players’ relative strong categories? What happens to that hypothetical team if pick #45 comes around, and Scott Podsednik is the highest remaining player on the cheat sheet?
Ideally, I would have wanted to do an entire retro-draft, using the 2005 statistics. However, this late in the game, with the NFBC draft just two weeks away, I did not believe that I could find 14 willing, knowledgeable, participants. As a result, I am using this very brief test to demonstrate to my readers that even with perfect projections (using last years’ as a basis), every team is going to construct differently, and the construction of a team is of utmost importance.
Much of this is obvious to all of you. However, think back of your home leagues wherein (I am willing to bet) the same few people win every year. The perennial losers will buy different magazines, check out different sites, and perhaps even adopt different strategies each year. Yet, no matter what, those perennial losers are going to continue to lose, and those perennial winners are going to continue to win. It’s not all about projections, but rather projections coupled with how you use them.
Now, I could have written the column without any basis, just including my opinions as stated above. However, that is no different than Gekko boasting about how good he is, or stating that someone’s team is worthy of a score of four out of ten.
No one seriously considers Gekko’s opinions, because they are opinions, only. Why consider my opinions without some data? Is the data that I am developing perfect? Certainly not. I will be the first to admit that, and will explain that in detail in the column. However, I can demonstrate that even given perfect projections, each team will be constructed differently, and the construction is a key element to forming a fantasy team.
When I took the California Bar Exam oh so many years ago, our professors told us to quit studying about three days before the test. Go out, enjoy ourselves, get some sun and clear our minds. On that note, I firmly believe that absent adjustments for spring injuries and depth chart changes, fantasy players need to step away from their cheat sheets and projections at some time before the draft, and spend some time figuring out how to best apply those numbers to best compile the most effective team.
That is the purpose of this experiment, and I want to thank the over two dozen people who have already submitted a team to help form the basis of this column, and urge the rest of you to also submit if your time permits.
Buster
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
no disrespect, but can we please stop seeing other people trying to push their sites on this message board. what relevance does this experiment have to do with our drafts in 3 weeks. obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless. again no disrepect, but this is getting to be a bit much lately.
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
I take it that you won't be sumitting a team.
Buster
Buster
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King of Queens
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by cindy:
obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless.If things go as I believe they might, the results very may well say otherwise.
Now how's that for a definitive statement?
obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless.If things go as I believe they might, the results very may well say otherwise.
Now how's that for a definitive statement?
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by cindy:
no disrespect, but can we please stop seeing other people trying to push their sites on this message board. what relevance does this experiment have to do with our drafts in 3 weeks. obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless. again no disrepect, but this is getting to be a bit much lately. Cindi, no disrespect to you either, but I find writers discussing fantasy baseball ideas far more interesting and relevant topics for the message board than endless threads about who has won how much in the past and how they're going to spend their (unlikely) winnings this year.
Also, taking both Reyes and Figgins could very well be a good strategy.
no disrespect, but can we please stop seeing other people trying to push their sites on this message board. what relevance does this experiment have to do with our drafts in 3 weeks. obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless. again no disrepect, but this is getting to be a bit much lately. Cindi, no disrespect to you either, but I find writers discussing fantasy baseball ideas far more interesting and relevant topics for the message board than endless threads about who has won how much in the past and how they're going to spend their (unlikely) winnings this year.
Also, taking both Reyes and Figgins could very well be a good strategy.
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Walla Walla
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
I agree. The experts get no money for posting but they should be able to post. If you don't like it than thats OK. I learn alot from these people.
Maybe Cindi should too??? Its ok to debate. Thats the American way.
Maybe Cindi should too??? Its ok to debate. Thats the American way.
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
I am enjoying this thread and will post a team tomorrow.
Don Mathis
Don Mathis
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
CINDY i love hearing from everybody, if you pick up just one thing, its werth the time.The figgins and reyes thing wouldnt suprise me. You might even see figgins in some of the main event 1st round picks.REYES will be early 2nd rd in most leagues. BUT i still like you cindy, keep posting.
EDWARD J GILLIS
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bowlingfool
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- Joined: Tue May 04, 2004 6:00 pm
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by cindy:
no disrespect, but can we please stop seeing other people trying to push their sites on this message board. what relevance does this experiment have to do with our drafts in 3 weeks. obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless. again no disrepect, but this is getting to be a bit much lately. Cindi, no disrespect to you either, but I find writers discussing fantasy baseball ideas far more interesting and relevant topics for the message board than endless threads about who has won how much in the past and how they're going to spend their (unlikely) winnings this year. [/QUOTE]Cindy, I gotta agree with KJ on this one. I find the threads that discuss players and strategy to be much better reading than the ones where team owners are just beating themselves on their chest screaming, "Look at me and how good I am and how much $$$ I've won and how great my team is...." etc.
If that means some of these guys get to pimp their sites, that's fine. Keep in mind that some of these sites help promote the NFBC by trying to pull in new players through their own sites. Anything that helps to make the NFBC a bigger success and build a bigger prize pool is a good thing.
quote:Originally posted by cindy:
no disrespect, but can we please stop seeing other people trying to push their sites on this message board. what relevance does this experiment have to do with our drafts in 3 weeks. obviously, no one would pick reyes and figgins with their first two picks because they are his/her top rated picks left, thats senseless. again no disrepect, but this is getting to be a bit much lately. Cindi, no disrespect to you either, but I find writers discussing fantasy baseball ideas far more interesting and relevant topics for the message board than endless threads about who has won how much in the past and how they're going to spend their (unlikely) winnings this year. [/QUOTE]Cindy, I gotta agree with KJ on this one. I find the threads that discuss players and strategy to be much better reading than the ones where team owners are just beating themselves on their chest screaming, "Look at me and how good I am and how much $$$ I've won and how great my team is...." etc.
If that means some of these guys get to pimp their sites, that's fine. Keep in mind that some of these sites help promote the NFBC by trying to pull in new players through their own sites. Anything that helps to make the NFBC a bigger success and build a bigger prize pool is a good thing.
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
i guess i can agree to what you all have said, good points. i admit i started to look into picking a team for this study and got frustrated, quit and made my post....maybe i'll try it again over the weekend...wouldn't it be funny if i won a steak dinner after bitching buster out here
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CC's Desperados
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
I think there is some confusion about what Buster is trying to do. This isn't about a draft or where someone is picked. It is about evaluating information. When we enter any fantasy event, we read the rules and try to come up with a plan to win. Buster has given us the final stats. We have to decide a plan. We are not necessarily trying to have the best possible team. We need to figure out what the owners might do. As of a result of the other owners opinions, a winner will be determined. The winner then would have had the best opinion about the data. He wouldn't be more knowledgeable about baseball. He would have been better at evaluating this information.
For those who didn't try, you might be missing out on a lesson about yourself. After you see the results, you then could see where you made some mistakes. It might help you later on when faced with actual choice between players.
I sent my team in last night. I didn't crunch any numbers. I read his guidelines and after about 15 minutes I sent my team in. Thanks Buster for the test. I look forward to the results. I'll see you in Vegas. Shawn
For those who didn't try, you might be missing out on a lesson about yourself. After you see the results, you then could see where you made some mistakes. It might help you later on when faced with actual choice between players.
I sent my team in last night. I didn't crunch any numbers. I read his guidelines and after about 15 minutes I sent my team in. Thanks Buster for the test. I look forward to the results. I'll see you in Vegas. Shawn
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sportsbettingman
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
I agree CC...
I guessed that many may try and maximize all categories...and I thought I'd focus on some and see if all the "ties" in categories (bringing down the point values) would be to my advantage.
I'm guessing I'll be in the upper 1/2 of the 24 plus teams...hoping I'll be even better!
It may be a way of forecasting what many team owners think they can "sneak" with! (categories they can buy)
~Lance
I guessed that many may try and maximize all categories...and I thought I'd focus on some and see if all the "ties" in categories (bringing down the point values) would be to my advantage.
I'm guessing I'll be in the upper 1/2 of the 24 plus teams...hoping I'll be even better!
It may be a way of forecasting what many team owners think they can "sneak" with! (categories they can buy)
~Lance
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Thanks to all of you for such an incredible response. I was hoping to get 15 responses, but we are far past that number.
As a result, and due partly to my travel/tournament schedule, I am going to change the time to respond to Monday night at midnight (PST) instead of Wedensday. I hope to have the column finished Tuesday evening, for posting shortly thereafter.
So, if you want to submit a team, please do so before Monday at midnight.
Thanks again for your teams.
Buster
As a result, and due partly to my travel/tournament schedule, I am going to change the time to respond to Monday night at midnight (PST) instead of Wedensday. I hope to have the column finished Tuesday evening, for posting shortly thereafter.
So, if you want to submit a team, please do so before Monday at midnight.
Thanks again for your teams.
Buster
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
This is actually a good way to warm up the brain. Being that you don't have endless time to make selections, I'm going to set a small time limit on myself and try to see what catagories I'm over and under estimating. I'll be emailing within a half hour. Thanks for setting this up.
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bowlingfool
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Originally posted by cindy:
i guess i can agree to what you all have said, good points. i admit i started to look into picking a team for this study and got frustrated, quit and made my post....maybe i'll try it again over the weekend...wouldn't it be funny if i won a steak dinner after bitching buster out here so Cindy, did you submit a team to Buster? how do you like your picks? have you started making dinner reservations in Vegas for Buster to pay for???
i guess i can agree to what you all have said, good points. i admit i started to look into picking a team for this study and got frustrated, quit and made my post....maybe i'll try it again over the weekend...wouldn't it be funny if i won a steak dinner after bitching buster out here
so Cindy, did you submit a team to Buster? how do you like your picks? have you started making dinner reservations in Vegas for Buster to pay for??? Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
AND THE WINNER OF THE CS/BUSTER Outside the Box Test is ...
Jay from RotoSpin
Jay defeated thirty-seven other volunteers with the following team:
Adam Dunn
Alfonso Soriano
Jorge Cantu
Jimmy Rollins
Ichiro Suzuki
Johnny Damon
Andruw Jones
Alex Rodriguez
Bartolo Colon
Randy Johnson
Roy Halladay
Danys Baez
Huston Street
B.J. Ryan
The column about the theory with the results will be posted (I believe) Wednesday March 8 at CREATiVESPORTS.com (sorry Cindy, had to put in the plug).
If you participated, but did not receive an e-mail with the stats, etc., please e-mail me and I will send the information to you.
Yahoo Mail was not perfect in this experiment, and I understand that a couple of entries did not make it to my inbox, for that, my apologies.
Thank you all for your participation. Best of luck in the draft, auction, etc.
Buster
Jay from RotoSpin
Jay defeated thirty-seven other volunteers with the following team:
Adam Dunn
Alfonso Soriano
Jorge Cantu
Jimmy Rollins
Ichiro Suzuki
Johnny Damon
Andruw Jones
Alex Rodriguez
Bartolo Colon
Randy Johnson
Roy Halladay
Danys Baez
Huston Street
B.J. Ryan
The column about the theory with the results will be posted (I believe) Wednesday March 8 at CREATiVESPORTS.com (sorry Cindy, had to put in the plug).
If you participated, but did not receive an e-mail with the stats, etc., please e-mail me and I will send the information to you.
Yahoo Mail was not perfect in this experiment, and I understand that a couple of entries did not make it to my inbox, for that, my apologies.
Thank you all for your participation. Best of luck in the draft, auction, etc.
Buster
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Well done Buster. Results were more compelling/ variant than I expected.
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RotoSpin.com
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Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
Thanks, Buster.
Unfortunately for me, I will be drafting in NY, not Vegas. So I guess somebody else will get to enjoy that steak.
Unfortunately for me, I will be drafting in NY, not Vegas. So I guess somebody else will get to enjoy that steak.
Which is more important, projections, or how you assemble your team?
RotoSpin's loss is Christopher F.'s gain. Christopher, please e-mail/post and let me know if you would like to claim your prize.
All I need is about fifteen more rejections, and I will be buying myself dinner (Mudville 9 in the competition) after the draft.
Buster
All I need is about fifteen more rejections, and I will be buying myself dinner (Mudville 9 in the competition) after the draft.
Buster