Closer Savants

[Rainiers]

With all the talk of Closer failures, lost in the shuffle is that some teams are getting rich in saves.

In my Main Event League, there is a team with four closers. Four. He now has four times as many closers as the team in last place in saves has saves.

Yeah, the last place team in saves has one lousy save. Not for a lack of trying. Two draft picks and nearing $600 spent on FAAB closers.

In my league, five teams have 16 closers, essentially leaving 14 left for the other 10 teams to scramble over.

I'm kind of surprised more teams aren't punting saves.

But hey, ...everyone knows you can't punt saves and compete in the Overall.

But hey,...that last place team in saves in my ME...he is in 12th place overall.

But hey, ....That Harpers World Team that Anson Chan has in first place in the Overall...has exactly zero closers.

[Winston's Empire]

Has anybody let the President know that guys in the NFBC haven't been given their fair shair of Closers? Guys in the Top 1% are HORDING them all!
I can just hear the chants of OCCUPY BULLPEN now...

OCCUPY BULLPEN LEADER: WHAT DO WE WANT?
CROWD: CLOSERS
OCCUPY BULLPEN LEADER: WHEN DO WE WANT THEM?
CROWD: NOW!!!!

I don't mean to make a joke out of this topic, but guys use strategy to land those closers and to put themselves in the position as things change to still manage their save opportunities. Not a single guy with 3 or 4 closers did anything that somebody else in his league couldn't have done!

[DOUGHBOYS]

It's true, the team with two drafted closers are not the norm as in past years.
Benches are filled with Farns, Santos, Storen, Marmol and others hoping for comebacks.
Santiago, Thornton, and Reed are divied up.
Along with guys like Chapman and Jansen who owners know should be closing for their teams.
And closers in waiting like KRod and Pestano and others.

Not to mention what happens to Saves targets.
How much are they lowered? Some teams are so top and bottom heavy, does the mean remain the same?
Or are there so many during the week changes this year, that in total, saves themselves fall this year for NFBC players?
Intriguing.

[Rainiers]

I don't mean to make a joke out of this topic, but guys use strategy to land those closers and to put themselves in the position as things change to still manage their save opportunities. Not a single guy with 3 or 4 closers did anything that somebody else in his league couldn't have done!

Love the humor. And couldn't agree with you more.

But my point is along these lines...would you rather be the guy in the yacht all alone or the the guy in the rowboat with two babes? Would you rather be guy in first place overall, or the guy with four closers?

Dough is right, some dynamics are certainly changing. I think that three closers will be needed to finish top 80% in saves, but maybe only one good one is needed to finish top 35%.

[Atlas]

I grabbed Pestano, Robertson and Reed in the draft to go along with Balfour and Papelbon. Hoped one of the 3 would make their way into closer by mid season.

As has been expressed, I figured I need a minimum of 2 solid closers to make it competitive. 3 to win the category. I've already dumped Pestano and Reed.

With Balfour sputtering, I picked up Fuentes as a handcuff for $1. I'll wait to see how that develops, but I poached a save out of Fuentes this week already.

[BK METS]

I grabbed Pestano, Robertson and Reed in the draft to go along with Balfour and Papelbon. Hoped one of the 3 would make their way into closer by mid season.

As has been expressed, I figured I need a minimum of 2 solid closers to make it competitive. 3 to win the category. I've already dumped Pestano and Reed.

With Balfour sputtering, I picked up Fuentes as a handcuff for $1. I'll wait to see how that develops, but I poached a save out of Fuentes this week already.

Awesome, YAY You!!

The closer situation is such a mess, if you are like most of us, you are in bad shape with 1 or more of your closers. If anyone thinks it's about "skill" that you are not in trouble in the closer situation right now, you are fooling yourselves. Mariano hasn't been on the DL in 9 years and is as reliable as they come... backing him up with Robertson would have been great, but he was drafted in many leagues and other holes needed to be filled other than insurance for a guy who never gets hurt. Drafting Wilson, Santos, Marmol, or Bell over Jim Johnson, Brett Myers, Frank Francisco, or Sean Marshall seemed like a smart decision at draft time, but not now. I don't care how you want to spin it, if you are in trouble in saves in your league, its been a matter of lack of luck, not lack of skill. Are you supposed to spend $400-500 FAAB on a closer at this point? Who knows, since many more closer jobs are in jeopardy, but saying you "handcuffed" certain guys as a skill move, actually is a bad move if the main guy never gets hurt or loses his job, and you used his space and FAAB $$ for a more needed position or category. Its an absolute mess and it appears the only ones benefiting from this are the guys like Anson, who punted the category from the beginning of the season. Maybe he doesn't win the whole thing, but I would much rather be in his position right now

[Winston's Empire]

I don't mean to make a joke out of this topic, but guys use strategy to land those closers and to put themselves in the position as things change to still manage their save opportunities. Not a single guy with 3 or 4 closers did anything that somebody else in his league couldn't have done!

Love the humor. And couldn't agree with you more.

But my point is along these lines...would you rather be the guy in the yacht all alone or the the guy in the rowboat with two babes? Would you rather be guy in first place overall, or the guy with four closers?

Dough is right, some dynamics are certainly changing. I think that three closers will be needed to finish top 80% in saves, but maybe only one good one is needed to finish top 35%.

I know what you and Dough are saying and I agree 100% that the dynamics of closer have changed in 2012 and will change the outcome of both individual leagues and the Overall.
I personally have been affected by the injuries and changes a lot in my own leagues and have had to adjust in the following ways.

MAIN EVENT
Drafted Papelbon & B Wilson, to go along with Aceves, Adams, Benoit and Clippard in my bullpen.
Since then I have dumped Wilson, Benoit and Clippard and spend $414 on S Downs to give me 3 Closers (going into the weekend at least)

KJ's KEEPER LEAGUE
Kept R Madson.
Drafted Papelbon & S Marshall (just in case Madson went down), D Robertson, and F Salas in my bullpen.
Since then I have dumped Madson & Salas and spent $21 on Andrew Cashner. Hoping D Robertson gets the nod in NY and SD trades Street!

[Rainiers]

Max, you have worked it well..I think Robertson may end up being more valuable than Kimbrel going forward. So both in your Main and KJ's league you are looking good.

In the Main, I have three precarious closers in Balfour, F. Fransisco and HRod. All drafted. I've been outbid on replacements and closers-in waiting. But when the inevitable happens and I get down to two or one closers, I might not bid the big bucks, though, and just let it go. And focus on the other nine, more affordable, categories. Chan and others seem to be showing me that saves don't matter as much as I used to think.

Robert.

[Hells Satans]

Max, you have worked it well..I think Robertson may end up being more valuable than Kimbrel going forward. So both in your Main and KJ's league you are looking good.

In the Main, I have three precarious closers in Balfour, F. Fransisco and HRod. All drafted. I've been outbid on replacements and closers-in waiting. But when the inevitable happens and I get down to two or one closers, I might not bid the big bucks, though, and just let it go. And focus on the other nine, more affordable, categories. Chan and others seem to be showing me that saves don't matter as much as I used to think.

Robert.

I really wouldn't draw any conclusions based on 1 month of stats. See where things are in mid-June when Kemp and LaHair and Encarncaion are no longer on a Barry Bonds-on-extra-steroids-like-pace and Pujols (presumably) has hit a HR or two and Cano doesn't suck. Far too many outliers right now. Give things time to regress. The Overall standings are meaningless at this point except to show that some people are off to a good start.

[Ando]

Well said, Bob. Just like the reality that is setting in on Chad Billingsley. Presently at 4 1/3 IP with 7 hits and 3 walks. Yup, that's Chaddy Boy.

[Rainiers]

I really wouldn't draw any conclusions based on 1 month of stats. See where things are in mid-June when Kemp and LaHair and Encarncaion are no longer on a Barry Bonds-on-extra-steroids-like-pace and Pujols (presumably) has hit a HR or two and Cano doesn't suck. Far too many outliers right now. Give things time to regress. The Overall standings are meaningless at this point except to show that some people are off to a good start.

I think we can conclude that, one month in, we have blown through 12 closers already, with 3 more on the verge of dismissal.

This is much more than normal, and the normal counting patterns we have had in the past for saves will not persist. I may be proven wrong, but but I believe that 3 closers will not necessarily get you top points for saves this year, and one good closer should get you a lot more points than it has in the past.