Would You Draft Mike Trout In The Top 5?

[Greg Ambrosius]

This is a good discussion that is already taking place on the Eric Hosmer thread, so let's move it over here and create its own thread on this topic. After Mike Trout's incredible rookie season, it's obvious that he will likely be a first round pick in most 2013 NFBC drafts. But would you take him in the first round? Would you take him in the Top 5? Would you take him 1st overall? Inquiring minds want to know.

Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ.com has already weighed in on the subject and has said that he wouldn't take Trout in the first round this year. Here's his analysis on Trout that was posted by one of our members on the Eric Hosmer thread:

An article from Mr. Shandler from about a month ago that reference both Trout and Hosmer:

I want to talk about a player who I've been writing about lately, in my column at USA Today as well as in my weekly chats. He is an amazing player having an amazing year. Let's set the mood with a question from one of those chats:

"Mike Trout has been unbelievable. What stats should we thinking about for him next year? Should there be some regression? He is clearly gonna be a top 5 pick in non-keeper leagues."

Absolutely 100% correct. His average draft position next year will most certainly be in the top 5. And anyone who drafts him that high has to be absolutely crazy.

I know, I know, it's human nature to put inflated emphasis on current performance. We call it the recency bias. You look at Trout's current numbers and how can you conceive of him not being a top 5 pick? At minimum, he's a first-rounder, right? How can that not be guaranteed with numbers like these?

How about a little history lesson?

In 2005, Derrek Lee put up a monster season. He hit 46 HR and batted .335, making him the #1 player in all of fantasy that year. This was an 8-year veteran who had never hit more than 32 HRs or batted higher than .282. The next spring, he rose to an ADP of 7. He hasn't cracked the first round since.

In 2006, Ryan Howard hit 58 HRs and batted .313 in his first full major league season, ranking him 4th among all players. For the next four years, Howard entered the season with a first round ADP but he hasn't finished among the game's top 15 players since that first year.

In 2009, Joe Mauer hit 28 HRs—more than double any previous season's output—and batted a career high .365. That was 7th best in all of baseball that year. The following spring, we warned everyone of the coming regression, but those 2009 numbers and position scarcity elevated him to an ADP of 13. He hasn't finished anywhere in the top five rounds since.

In 2010, it was Carlos Gonzalez, hitting 34 HRs, stealing 26 bases and batting .336 in his first full major league season. He was the #1 player in baseball that year and opened the 2011 ADPs at #6. Regression pulled him out of the first round last year, though he is back in the top 10 so far in 2012.

Last year there were all sorts of breakout performances. Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury finished #1 and #2, respectively. Curtis Granderson was #6 and Adrian Gonzalez was #7. The latter two were first-timers to finishing in the top 15. All four will be finishing nowhere near first round value this year.

In each of these years, we could not conceive of those players failing. But regression and gravity are the two strongest forces known to man. They are unforgiving.

Who is returning first round value this year so far? Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton and David Wright—players who have been consistent first-rounders before. Andrew McCutchen and Edwin Encarnacion—players with a skills track record that has been improving moderately over time, not spiking. Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez—players with a long-term track record of exemplary skills.

These are the players I would be looking towards as returning first round value next year. I'd also be looking towards players with excellent skills who might have had an off-year in 2012. By that token, I'd probably be more likely to draft a Justin Upton in the first round than a Mike Trout.

For me, Trout is more likely to be next year's Eric Hosmer.


Do you agree with Ron or do you think Trout has the talent to avoid the Sophomore Slump? Let's hear it.

[DOUGHBOYS]

He is the first pick in the first draft of the year, The Pre-Mature League.

[Quahogs]

FWIW he's ticking me off now... in the month of Sep (89 ab) he's batting .191 with 3hr 4rbi and 4sb. Not exactly stuff of legends

[Money]

He has hit a wall this month. Doughy had a nice article last week on the no names out performing the studs in any given week. These final weeks just seem to be more important right now.

Miguel Cabrera will be my number 1 pick until he has a down year. His numbers are now 8 years running. If you don't want to miss on your first pick, this guy is as close to automatic as there is in our game.

[Greg Ambrosius]

He has hit a wall this month. Doughy had a nice article last week on the no names out performing the studs in any given week. These final weeks just seem to be more important right now.

Miguel Cabrera will be my number 1 pick until he has a down year. His numbers are now 8 years running. If you don't want to miss on your first pick, this guy is as close to automatic as there is in our game.

It really is hard to argue with that logic Joe and it's the same logic folks used with Pujols for the last decade. Cabrera and Braun have done it more consistently and longer than Trout, which would influence me on Draft Day. But there's no doubt that Trout seems to have the type of early skills that kept A-Rod and Griffey near the top of draft boards for many years after their impressive debuts.

It should be fun to start the draft process all over again. Heck, it will all happen sooner than you think.

[Edwards Kings]

Miguel Cabrera chasing the Triple Crown should make him 2013 consensus NUMBER ONE and deservedly so. No one could question his hitting ability. Will he end 2013 the top point getter? Will he challenge for the Triple Crown again? Odds say no in both cases, but will he return solid mid-to-early first round value? Odds say yes and that is what makes him such a good pick. I wrote him down last year because of the position change, but I was certainly all wet. Won't make that mistake again.

Ryan Braun would be my co-NUMBER ONE option. No one is grousing about the wonky steroids test anymore! Quietly and effectively he answered the pressure and the critics with another stellar season.

Gamble picks would be Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Kemp. If Stanton can stay healthy for 154 games he would put up OMG power (big if). Kemp is just an all-round contributor you know you will be itching to call out his name if you get one of the top six or so draft picks.

And Trout. Would I draft him first round? I am typically one of the more conservative (skittish?) drafters out there, but I have to tell you I buy in on the hype. If he is there late-mid, I could not resist calling his name. Sophomore jinx could bite the buyers and the swoon is disturbing, but he will be special!

[ToddZ]

Not sure what this says other than the slash lines are eerily similar

.321/.376/.552
.321/.393/.555

Top is '11 Ellsbury
Bottom is '12 Trout