Early odds to win 100k

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Fri Mar 10, 2006 12:18 pm

Todd Zola: Even at pick 15, a very favorable league draw, nobody in the top 60 in lifetime standings. good luck.

[ March 10, 2006, 06:27 PM: Message edited by: cindy ]

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Fri Mar 10, 2006 12:31 pm

The ROYALS look good to win the World Series also. TAMPA 3 may have a shark or two.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Mar 10, 2006 1:17 pm

Originally posted by cindy:

Todd Zola: Even at pick 15, a very favorable league draw, nobody in the top 60 in lifetime standings. good luck. maybe the thread should be called...if Zola can't produce THIS year, he should give up fantasy baseball

Bull Pen Pugs · Post by **Bull Pen Pugs** » Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:10 pm

LMAO, all the speculating going on is hilarious. No ones knows until the time comes. Injuries, Luck and Waiver wire are factors no one knows but it is hilarious....

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:44 am

My point is that Todd working in the industry obviously knows what he is doing in fantasy baseball. However I sometimes think he over analyzes and that hurts him instead of helps. His lifetime ranking to me is irrelevant because he admittedly tanked his team in year 1 at midseason. So I am not saying he is better than Shawn Childs, Eddie Gillis or either of our 100k champs, just that he should dominate the league he drew. Gekko actually said it best in his reply and Todd should actually be more motivated than ever to perform well, irregardless of injuries and luck, he should run away with that league. We'll check back in October to see if my pick wins.

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 2:25 am

For this topic,lets forget about the lifetime standings because they are only over a 2 year period. Let me just leave it at: Todds chances of winning 100k may never be better than this year. He's still my pick to win it all

Mudster · Post by **Mudster** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 2:37 am

No disrespect to Mr. Zola, as he has shown he has an excellent grasp of the stat business, but to say that he will dominate a league, when you know nothing of the other players in that league, is reaching. Just because someone isn't published doesn't mean they haven't come up with the "master formula" to winning fantasy baseball. I'll use myself for an example. I've been doing fantasy sports for 17 years now and before the internet came into play, I had come up with some very advanced formulas for taking projections and figuring out their true worth. Was I ever published? No. Do I have more fantasy experience than probably a large number of these participants? I'll guess that I do. Do I expect to win? Of course not. Going up against 14 others leaves a lot up to chance. If your stud players have an off year, if your ROY candidates flop, etc, etc, etc....I would say that those that have never had experience with the rules that are different in this league may be at a disadvantage, but just because someone hasn't been in the NFBC doesn't mean they haven't played by these rules before. I just hope we all have fun. Gotta get back to work....

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 3:43 am

Originally posted by cindy:

For this topic,lets forget about the lifetime standings because they are only over a 2 year period. Let me just leave it at: Todds chances of winning 100k may never be better than this year. He's still my pick to win it all Play a little devil's advocate here....

You start your thread by stating "Todd Zola: Even at pick 15, a very favorable league draw, nobody in the top 60 in lifetime standings. good luck." [/I]

Yet, you say, let's "forget" about lifetime standings? So are we "forgetting" or do we get to include them in this reference??? I am confused

because you are saying 2 different things.

AND are you playing Cindy? If so, I am sure all of your leaguemates are happy to have you, since you have already conceeded defeat!

It is mind-boggling how you "experts", who have been playing in this championship since it's inception, ALL the way back in 2004, think you know more than all of the non-NFBC players.

I understand all of the the talk with the FAAB, etc.... but who in their right mind would pay $1250 if they didn't have a clue about fantasy???? Do you think they just started playing this year?? Do you think they care if you have played the past 2 years in the NFBC??

And whole "newbie" thing is such a joke. So is the whole "industry expert" thing. From checking through the lifetime standing for the NFBC and the NFFC, it looks as though these veterans, who also happen to be "experts", are predominately ranked in the 100's. I know a lot are ranked higher, but some of the "big" names are very low.

Lastly, Zola admittedly tanked his team in year 1 at midseason.........doesn't sound like much of a champion to me if he gives up midseason. Will he even make it that long in this league when a bunch of "newbies" are kicking the "expert" butt????

I can tell you now, you don't have to wait until October to get your answer on him winning....will give it to you in March, not gonna happen.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 3:49 am

..... and now for a rational look at the odds:

250:1 ... odds of someone who knows what they are doing winning the title. There seem to be 3-4 people in each lge, on average, that are overmatched, improving the odds for everyone else.

100:1 ... anyone that has finished in the top 50 more than once. Not a lot of evidence yet that they're superior, but enough to bump their odds.

30:1 ... anyone that has finished in the top 20 more than once. Strong evidence of superior skill, but still too many variables for odds any better than this. (I think there are 3 guys that make it into this group).

[ March 11, 2006, 09:56 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 4:13 am

I'm going to win. Odds don't mean a thing.

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 4:34 am

K J well stated as always, nice breakdown. Good luck this season.

Walla Walla - I'm rooting for ya pal.

Personally, I like this Jim Christie guy in Tampa #3.

Walter Sobczak · Post by **Walter Sobczak** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 5:21 am

SCREW each and every one of you. I am winning this puppy flat out! If I didnt lok at it this way, I wouldnt spend $1350 for a team.

But you all can help me out by drafting tim Crews, Gary Varsho, and Bob Hamlin in the 1st round.

Thanks

Shimmy Shat - Chicago League 1 pick 14

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 5:38 am

Dear God Loves You, I believe Todd is a strong player despite his to date ranking and also believe that based on the fact that he did not land in a league, such as say our very own Gekko, that is top heavy with prior money winners that he has an advantage. Plain and simple, I am taking a pre season guess as to who I think will win the top prize. Thats all this is, I do not mean anything bad spirited towards the other 14 owners in TB3. They very well may be top players that haven't done so yet or played in this contest. And besides how can you not like the fact that Todd can lean on Jason Grey for some advise

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 6:04 am

Originally posted by :

Not sure what you're saying here Cindy. You're favoring Todd Zola to win Tampa 3, even though he has a lifetime rank of 114. And you're reasoning for favoring him is cause nobody else has a rank above 60.

Sooooooo, do you put value in lifetime ranks, or don't you? Or does the value of a lifetime rank only apply to someone if they're NOT an "industry guy". Does Zola at 114 have more merit than Joe Blow at 80? Also worth noting is that lifetime rankings doesn't include managers whom only played in 2006. There are a number of them that I would consider extremely competitive.

steve · Post by **steve** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:12 pm

cindy are you a blond???lol

anyone can win tampa 3,,,,just because you work in an industry does not mean you are great at what you do! rankings have some merit when you see the same person come in the top 20 3 years in a row,,,,good knowledge, good management, and good luck make you a winner.

Don't worry cindy, i have my money on you to win the whole thing

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:43 am

Cindy, let me know if you still feel the same about Todd's chances :rolleyes: after you see the team he drafted against all of those "scrubs".

If he wins the 100K, I will pay for your entry into next years main.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Mar 21, 2006 5:41 am

Originally posted by :

i agree.

honestly cindy and godlovesyou, i was down in tampa, and i humbly think:

1) the competition was probably weaker there than in new york and vegas

2) zola drafted one of the weaker teams

3) i am going to do pretty well in this year's nfbc and then throw up a website and call myself an "expert"

dave k

tu la daddies

www.ourfieldofdreams.us I drafted in Tampa and saw no major difference between the talent level there and in Las Vegas in 05.

As far as Zola- I find it amusing that someone calls him out to win and then everyone bags his team before a game is played. Not real fair to the guy-

As far as Dave- maybe you should accomplish something as little as a good week in this competition before giving expert opinions. From what I heard and observed your next humble opinion will be your first.

[ March 21, 2006, 12:21 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Tue Mar 21, 2006 8:48 am

Todd Zola is the favorite to win Tampa 3??? I'll take my team anyday...is he going to win because his name is Todd Zola?

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Tue Mar 21, 2006 8:51 am

oh, I drafted out of Vegas for the Tampa 3 league; Jim Christie and team name "Eight Men Up" Good luck to all in Tampa 3....