Granted, This is From a Baseballer...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Right now, on just about every fantasy football message board across America, there is a discussion about the luck involved in fantasy football. It happens every year about this time. It doesn't happen before the season because too much effort is made on getting the best possible team.
But as the season progresses, it becomes more and more evident to footballer's, that luck is the prevailing factor in their game.
They'll point fingers at injury, coaching philosophy, specialization, team defenses geared to stop their player, and they're right, these factors are all involved with the luck of playing fantasy football.
But, the main luck factor lies in the fantasy game itself. Head to head competition. And most players do not want to change it. They enjoy the Mano y mano action. The wonder if they'll win their game that week. They crave the 'action'.
That same 'action' is the main culprit for making the game lucky.

Some leagues and sites have a partial total points reward while still playing head to head, which does help in taking out the largest luck factor, but most still rely on head to head matchups.
Thankfully, fantasy baseball head to head leagues are the minority.
In either fantasy sport, we are drafting players for the long haul. We want players who will be consistently good over the course of a 16 game or 162 game season.
In either fantasy sport, we do not draft players for a matchup in week twelve.

We draft baseball players, knowing that they will have 0-4 games. Fantasy footballers don't have the luxury.
If Tony Romo throw 20 td passes, but 16 of those come in five games, that means he will have, for the most part, 'whiffed' in all his other games. And those may have been the games that his owners needed him the most.
In the meantime, Trout's 0-4's are being fortified with home runs and stolen bases on other days that ALL count for his owners.

Some folks like to compare fantasy football to poker, or blackjack, or even slot machines, depending on how much luck they feel is involved in the game.
They're all bad comparisons.
Poker doesn't change. The players do, but the game remains the same.
Blackjack and slots are more like an insult in that not that much knowledge is needed.
The game fantasy football more resembles is 'The Price is Right'
To spin the 'Big Wheel', knowledge of the prices of items are needed. The more you study prices of items, the better chance at the Big Money. Once at the 'Big Wheel' or playoffs in fantasy football, the game changes to almost pure luck, in that it all happens over such a small time frame.
A few minutes for the 'Price is Right' player, three weeks for the fantasy football player.

I used to love fantasy football. I couldn't wait for Sundays. But like the fellows on the Message Boards who were questioning the luck factor eight weeks into the season, I started questioning it before the season and knew it was time to leave something I adored.
Right now, there is a guy gearing up for this Sunday and hoping his opponent forgets to set his lineup or that he has already given up on the year.
A cheap win.
We have the same fellows giving up in fantasy baseball and while every team in that league will benefit from the fantasy baseballer giving up, only a select few benefit from the giver upper in fantasy football.

Coaching philosophy, specialization,Thursday Night football, more player 'rests', they've all conspired to help coaches on the field or to make the NFL more money. At the same time, the fantasy football game has not benefitted from any of these changes. The luck on the field in gauging a particular players performance has changed. Rare is the running back or wide receiver who plays almost every down, like most did even just 10 years ago.
The game on the field has changed, while the fantasy game has stayed virtually the same. Without change from one of those two, the luck factor will continue to grow each year.