Watch The AFL For Some Late Round Sleepers

[Greg Ambrosius]

The Arizona Fall League has proven to be the ideal setting for finding fantasy's top sleepers. More than 60 percent of AFL players eventually reach the majors, but these guys are usually projected to be two years away from the majors since many of them played in Class A or AA ball that year. When they surprise people and contribute in the majors THAT YEAR, they become fantasy sleepers.

Last year in the AFL, everyone knew that Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were the top prospects to watch. Things were made easier when they landed on the same team. But it was a bit of a surprise that they both were called up so early last season and contributed as much as they did for fantasy owners. If you saw them in the AFL, you thought maybe a half season of seasoning was needed in the minors, but they emerged early and adjusted nicely.

Also reaching the majors from last year's class were Will Middlebrooks (even though he didn't play much in the AFL), Jean Segura, Brandon Crawford, Yasmani Grandal and Andrew Cashner. Owners also got nice looks at Wil Myers, Mike Olt, Nolan Arenado, Alex Castellanos, Darin Ruf, Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Jedd Gyordko and Adam Eaton. If you would have asked me which 3 players would emerge in 2012, I would have said Harper, Trout and Myers. I really expected the Royals to call up Myers by mid-season and let him blossom in the majors, but trying to figure out the Royals is never an easy task.

This year's AFL class is equally as impressive, although I don't think we'll ever find players like Trout and Harper emerging that quickly and that impressively again from the AFL. Still, don't be surprised if a couple of AFL players jump to the majors and contribute quickly. Those who have the best shots of helping fantasy players in 2013 include:

Mike Zunino, C, Seattle
Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati
Chase Anderson, SP, Arizona
Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota
Grant Green, 2B, Oakland
Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa
Nick Franklin, 2B, Seattle
Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington
James Paxton, SP, Seattle
Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco
Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston
George Springer, OF, Houston
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington
Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
Heath Hembree, RP, San Francisco
Jarred Cosart, SP, Houston

I'm not saying that all of these players will reach the majors and be impact players, but they are worth putting on your radar now. Now that the AFL season is done and we can look at their stats, I'll do a little writeup on many of these top prospects and keep an eye on them this off-season. For all of you competing in the Draft Champions Leagues, it doesn't hurt to stay on top of this list because you never know when that 44th round pick will help you out late in the regular season. Any of these players could be that player.

Let's lead off with Billy Hamilton, since I already wrote about him:

Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds:
Hamilton broke the minor-league record for stolen bases in a single season this past year with 155. That's right, 155 stolen bases. The old record of 143 was set by Vince Coleman in 1983. Hamilton hit .311 between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola with 2 home runs, 22 doubles, 14 triples, 45 RBI, 86 walks and 112 runs scored. He was the California League MVP and a Future Games participant. He hit .323-1-30 with 104 stolen bases at Bakersfield and then hit .286-1-15 with 51 stolen bases at Pensacola. He attempted 192 stolen bases last year in 132 games and his success rate was 81 percent. He had stolen 103 bases the year before at Class A Dayton. He walked enough last year to finish with an OBP of .413 at Bakersfield and .406 at Pensacola.

Hamilton was chosen in the 2nd round (57th overall pick) in 2009 out of Taylorsville (Miss.) High School as a shortstop. He played shortstop last year, but the Reds are converting him to center field and that's where he played in the AFL. He definitely needs seasoning in the minors this year, but he made some nice plays in the outfield this fall and certainly is athletic enough to handle the new position. In fact, at 6'1" and 160 pounds, he looks like a natural in the outfield.

In the AFL, he hit .234 in 17 games with one home run, 9 RBIs, 11 runs and 10 stolen bases in 12 attempts. His OBP was .306 as he walked 7 times and struck out 12 times. The Reds will likely start him out at Double-A or Triple-A and give him as much time as needed to learn his new position. He had a nasty crash with the outfield wall during Saturday's Championship Game, although he did appear to be okay. But he's definitely a difference maker on the base paths. Now the key is to find a way that he can get on base regularly. He likely needs more seasoning in the minors, but speed kills and he will be a tough prospect to leave alone on Draft Day. But I'd be shocked if the Reds did anything with him before mid-season at the earliest.

Here's a little more info on Hamilton and a view that maybe Hamilton can make it to the majors this year:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb

[Greg Ambrosius]

Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
Zunino won the Golden Spikes Award as the nation's top amateur player and the Johnny Bench Award as the top collegiate catcher in 2012 while at Florida. He was the SEC Player of the Year in 2012 as he hit .322-19-67 with 9 stolen bases after winning the SEC Player of the Year honors in 2011. Seattle drafted him third overall in June and gave him a $4 million bonus. Zunino then went to Everett of the Northwest League and hit .373-10-35 in 29 games, before advancing to Double-A Jackson, where he hit .333-3-8 in 15 games. He finished with a combined .447 OBP as he walked 23 times and struck out 33 times.

During the AFL season, he hit .288-2-15 with 10 runs in 19 games with a .337 OBP. He also went 3-for-5 with two RBIs on Saturday in the Championship Game to lift Peoria (which also has Billy Hamilton) to the league title. He is an excellent defensive catcher who could easily handle MLB pitching right now. His addition means that Jesus Montero won't be used at catcher much longer and could be a full-time DH sooner than expected. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo told the AFL Symposium audience that he could be the Opening Day starter in Seattle -- the Mariners are that confident in his catching skills -- but don't be surprised if he opens in the minors before receiving an in-season call-up. He turns 22 in March and could be a top catcher for years to come. Now it just depends on when he first reaches the majors in 2013 because his time is definitely near.

Here's a local angle on Zunino's potential to reach the majors in 2013:

http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2 ... cmpid=2628

http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/ar ... a&c_id=sea

[Captain Hook]

Owners also got nice looks at Wil Myers, Mike Olt, Nolan Arenado, Alex Castellanos, Darin Ruf, Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Jedd Gyordko and Adam Eaton. If you would have asked me which 3 players would emerge in 2012, I would have said Harper, Trout and Myers. I really expected the Royals to call up Myers by mid-season and let him blossom in the majors, but trying to figure out the Royals is never an easy task.

Sorry Greg but I have to disagree with the point about Myers and the Royals

Myers had a great year last year - and might have been called up IF the Royals needed him - but things didn't go well for them even aside from the injuries and what would Myers have added to them for the last few months?

What he would have done if called up last year was be on the 40 man roster prematurely thus prohibiting them from protecting older minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft in December.

In fact look at all MLB organization transactions in the last few days and you see several minor leaguers added to the 40 man rosters just so they can't be lost in the Rule 5 draft - including several who had a very nice stint in the AFL this year - just another reason why some clubs send players down here.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Owners also got nice looks at Wil Myers, Mike Olt, Nolan Arenado, Alex Castellanos, Darin Ruf, Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Jedd Gyordko and Adam Eaton. If you would have asked me which 3 players would emerge in 2012, I would have said Harper, Trout and Myers. I really expected the Royals to call up Myers by mid-season and let him blossom in the majors, but trying to figure out the Royals is never an easy task.

Sorry Greg but I have to disagree with the point about Myers and the Royals

Myers had a great year last year - and might have been called up IF the Royals needed him - but things didn't go well for them even aside from the injuries and what would Myers have added to them for the last few months?

What he would have done if called up last year was be on the 40 man roster prematurely thus prohibiting them from protecting older minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft in December.

In fact look at all MLB organization transactions in the last few days and you see several minor leaguers added to the 40 man rosters just so they can't be lost in the Rule 5 draft - including several who had a very nice stint in the AFL this year - just another reason why some clubs send players down here.

Perry, that's a perfect response and explanation...IF YOU WORK IN THE ROYALS' FRONT OFFICE!!

C'mon, you know as well as I do that it's all about the money. It's also why the Royals won't call up Myers until late May, to save a year on his arbitration time table. They had a chance to call up a top prospect, get him acclimated to big league life, create some excitement in Kansas City for 2013 and they chose not to. You know others at the Arizona Fall League Symposium also said they were surprised that the Royals didn't call him up, but the excuse was: "Well, that's the Royals for ya."

Myers was Baseball America's and USA Today's Minor League Player of the Year as he hit a combined .314-37-109-6 between AA and AAA. He hit .304-24-79 in 99 games at Triple-A Omaha. He stayed healthy for the full season and at 21 is a key part of the Royals' rebuilding plan. He probably couldn't have won them many extra games last year and as you say now they can protect him. But we all know they are just protecting one more salary arbitration year. It's all about the money.

Here is a similar opinion:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1322 ... ganization

I hope he reaches the majors soon. He's going to be a joy to watch for years to come and a solid fantasy player for folks to own.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It could also have something to do with a certain ego.
At one time, Baseball America trumpeted the Royals kids as can't misses. Everybody is up to the Bigs now except Myers and Starling, as Montgomery may not even be a AAA pitcher.
Montgomery was not even selected in the recent 50 round e-mail draft.
If that certain someone with an ego calls up Myers, all the kids but Starling will have gone through the system and still the Royals lose. And worse, are still considered losers.
And mostly because the guy with the big ego could not have any quality Major Leaguers to meet these kids.
He's been on the job for almost seven years. Never came close to a winning season.
Soon, he'll start trading these kids and it will be a safe bet that he won't be very good at that either.
Those Kansas City fans deserve soooooo much better.

[Captain Hook]

MONEY - Yes

Same as if he was on the 40 man roster and they had to cut someone else!

WHY would they bring him up in a LOSING season?????

Don't listen to those who said they "should" bring him up! Why? It would cost them money in a losing season. WHAT is the point in that?

"WE" all know he could have held his own last year but there is NO organizational reason to do so
They DO have great fans who will cheer WHEN he is brought up

Not every team can be the Yankees > Dodgers
And Kansas City is NOT the Marlins - they have built a good organization from the ground up and have lots of prospects they can trade now for pitching OR what they need in season. IF they had not had injuries to Paulino and Duffy last year maybe things would have been different but the plan was 2013 at the earliest and maybe 2014 and they are still on that

I have ZERO allegiance to the ownership/front office - but I see these kids ten months a year and they ARE going in the right direction - bringing Myers up last year would have done NOTHING to further the franchise - maybe make a few fans or fantasy players happy.

REALLY we have to differentiate things - they are NOT interested in your fantasy team(s) - they NEED to build a winning franchise.

[Edwards Kings]

Not to give the impression that I think there is real intelligence in the Royals front office in the face of so much evidence to the contrary (for example, see who earned $25m over three years), but there were two other high profile OFers who cracked the bigs last year in much larger or at least higher profile markets.

Would there have been enough spotlight to go around to get the maximum positive impact from bringing Myers up?

I think no matter how well he played, Harper and Trout would have made Myers an afterthought. Bring him up in 2013 instead and maybe he gets all the attention himself as there does not appear to be a lot of buzz going around about any other offensive player this year except perhaps "Judy" Hamilton.

Could the Royals be that machiavellian?

[Greg Ambrosius]

When MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo polled the AFL players and asked them who they thought would be the most likely to be MLB stars, they overwhelmingly chose Mike Zunino and Billy Hamilton. Finishing third, however, was Miami's Christian Yelich.

Now I'm not telling you to put Yelich on your radar for 2013 because he probably won't reach the majors this year. He won't turn 21 until Dec. 5th and he hasn't played above Hi-A ball yet. But he sure is a smooth looking player and at 6'4", 190 pounds he has the frame to develop into a solid power-hitter. Last year in the Florida State League, he hit .330-12-48 with 20 stolen bases and 76 runs in 106 games. He also had a .404 OBP. In the Arizona Fall League, he hit .301-0-11-3 with 13 runs in 25 games and a .343 OBP

Again, he's probably not going to reach the majors in 2013, but this is the top prospect on a rebuilding franchise, so keep him on your radar. He looks like he could develop into a nice power-speed guy and by 2014 he could be a worthy sleeper to get.

Here's a good recap of Yelich's 2012 season:

http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/9/28/34 ... 012-season

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... a&c_id=mia

[Greg Ambrosius]

One of the more interesting players to watch this off-season is Oakland's Grant Green. He was a first round pick in 2009 who was the 13th overall pick and who signed for $2.75 million. He was a shortstop at USC, but at 6'3", 180 pounds the A's weren't sure if he could stay at that position. So last year they tried him in center field, then left field and finally at third base. Despite moving all over the diamond, he still hit to the tune of .296-15-75-13 at Triple-A Sacramento with 73 runs in 125 games. The A's then had him playing Second Base in the AFL, where he hit .273-2-11-1 with 8 runs in 17 games. This marked his third season in the AFL and at the age of 25 it's time for Green to make the big leagues and prove his first round status.

The A's traded Cliff Pennington this off-season and declined Stephen Drew's option, so there is a hole in the middle infield right now for Oakland. Jemile Weeks and Green could be battling for playing time, depending on what the A's do this off-season. The fact that the A's had Green working at 2B this fall shows you that he may be back in a middle infield position. It's possible that his bat is ready; now the key is finding the right spot for him. As for the stolen bases, realize that he's not a speedster and even though he's stolen 29 bases in the minors, he's also been thrown out 22 times. Last year he was just 13-of-22 in SB attempts. Look for some power and a few stolen bases, but don't expect 20-20 from this guy unless the A's don't mind him getting thrown out 15 times.

He qualifies at OF to start the NFBC season, so plan accordingly. But keep an eye on this youngster because he could seize this opening with a solid spring. Here's more:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... k&c_id=oak

Here's an interesting look at his summer, written in June:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2012/6/1 ... rant-green

[Greg Ambrosius]

Let's look at another interesting player from the AFL: Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco

The Giants selected Brown 24th overall in the first round of the 2010 draft out of Cal-State Fullerton and then signed him for $1.45 million. He had a fantastic 2011 season in the Class A California League, hitting .336-14-80 with 53 stolen bases and 115 runs in 131 games. He then went to the Arizona Fall League, where he was the third outfielder at Scottsdale that included Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. While those two players went on to excel in the majors and win Rookie of the Year honors, Brown went to Double-A Richmond and struggled slightly, hitting .279-7-42 with 33 stolen bases and 73 runs in 134 games. The prototypical leadoff hitter still finished with a solid .347 OBP, one year after posting a .407 OBP at Class A. He's unquestionably one of the fastest players in the majors, yet his 70% stolen base success rate (86-of-123) over the last two years isn't good.

Still, the Giants have holes in the outfield and with Melky Cabrera gone there is an opening in the starting lineup. It's unlikely that Brown would jump right from Double-A to the majors, but you never know with a hot spring. This fall, Brown hit .313-0-5-2 with 7 runs in 17 games, while starting in the Rising Stars Game. His speed in the outfield is ideal for spacious AT&T Park and he's ready with the glove. Now let's see if his bat follows. If it does, he will be joining his 2011 AFL pals Mike Trout and Bryce Harper as young stars to watch for years to come.

Here's another view on Brown's progress:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1357 ... sco-giants