I've Got The 4th Pick; Who Should I Take?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Next Wednesday night, Todd and Lawr are hosting a magazine draft through Mastersball.com. It is set up NFBC style with 15 owners and 23 rounds (our starting lineup must be drafted). I have the 4th pick in this draft, which is interesting. Obviously the Top 3 picks should be Ryan Braun, Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera and if not I'll take one of them. But there are plenty of options at the 4th spot, like:

Andrew McCutchen
Robinson Cano
Matt Kemp
Many others

Who should I take? C'mon, I need to look good (well, as good as a 52-year-old with a '70s moustache can look), so help me out!! I have some thoughts, but I'll listen to the NFBC brethren. Preach to me Messiahs!!

I'll post many of the picks here after the draft. Should be a fun start to discussion. Thanks all.

[Money]

Depending on where he lands Josh Hamilton. Maybe be a trendsetter and go with the for sure thing pitcher, Justin Verlander. He seems to be the modern day Roy Halladay. I would imagine he'll be the first pitcher off the board in the late first round.

[Gekko]

my money is on Kemp being 4th on the ADP list

[Captain Hook]

don'tyaknow

[BEF]

I've had the 4th pick now in two separate drafts (NFBC @ BBHQ AFL Symposium, plus an online HQ mock on their Forums). For the first I took Cano, and for the second I took Kemp. What have I learned? That as of right now the 4 hole is absolutely the worst spot to get...I'd rather be around #10, or even the turn at #15.

I know it's ridiculously early, but right now there are very few guys that "feel" like legit first rounders; does that make sense? Not sure how else to describe it.

[Captain Hook]

I've had the 4th pick now in two separate drafts (NFBC @ BBHQ AFL Symposium, plus an online HQ mock on their Forums). For the first I took Cano, and for the second I took Kemp. What have I learned? That as of right now the 4 hole is absolutely the worst spot to get...I'd rather be around #10, or even the turn at #15.

I know it's ridiculously early, but right now there are very few guys that "feel" like legit first rounders; does that make sense? Not sure how else to describe it.

I think you're WHACK

You have the chance to get one whose value is rock solid or the other for one of the biggest upside plays and you are complaining about the spot?

[Bronx Yankees]

Think I'd go Kemp. If he is healthy, he easily could hit 30-35 homers, score and drive-in 100 runs, hit for a .300+ average and also steal 20+ bases. His ceiling is even higher. Also, he'll be playing with AGon, Hanley, Crawford (maybe) and whoever else the very rich Dodgers acquire. You have to think the lineup will be much improved when together for a whole year.

Mike

[Greg Ambrosius]

Think I'd go Kemp. If he is healthy, he easily could hit 30-35 homers, score and drive-in 100 runs, hit for a .300+ average and also steal 20+ bases. His ceiling is even higher. Also, he'll be playing with AGon, Hanley, Crawford (maybe) and whoever else the very rich Dodgers acquire. You have to think the lineup will be much improved when together for a whole year.

Mike

I am definitely leaning this way. I picture a healthy Kemp in April and remember those MVP-caliber numbers...for one month!! I do agree that the team is now set to contend and a healthy Kemp is as good as they come. I do like Andrew McCutchen as well and starting out with the best Second Baseman is appealing. But you go for upside and solid production and if Kemp can stay healthy he could be this year's MVP.

I'm not sold yet, but I'm leaning down Dodger Way.

[mbendar16]

another vote for kemp - tough to pass on the upside and that potential lineup. you're leaning the right way Greg

[BEF]

I've had the 4th pick now in two separate drafts (NFBC @ BBHQ AFL Symposium, plus an online HQ mock on their Forums). For the first I took Cano, and for the second I took Kemp. What have I learned? That as of right now the 4 hole is absolutely the worst spot to get...I'd rather be around #10, or even the turn at #15.

I know it's ridiculously early, but right now there are very few guys that "feel" like legit first rounders; does that make sense? Not sure how else to describe it.

I think you're WHACK

You have the chance to get one whose value is rock solid or the other for one of the biggest upside plays and you are complaining about the spot?

My point is that in a 15 team league, for this year I think I'd rather have picks #12 and #19 instead of #4 and #27, because there isn't a huge difference between #4 and #12, but you can definitely do better at #19 than #27. It's not just a first-round decision.

[Captain Hook]

Brian - pick either of your drafts and list the four players and prove your point - I will bet against

[swampass]

this is from rotowire, on 10/7:
Kemp's shoulder surgery this week revealed that the damage was more extensive than anticipated, leaving open the possibility that he could be slightly behind once spring training starts up, the LA Times reports.

Doesnt anyone worry that a guy who hits for power wont have his full power back for the season? as someone who drafted adrian gonzalez a few years ago coming off his shoulder surgery id take cano or someone else. its painful to make a mistake early in the draft. he could hit for a good avg, produce runs, rbi, and a few sbs, but id say he needs to hit at least 25 homers to make him worth it and if that shoulder is rushed, then all his numbers suffer.

[BEF]

Brian - pick either of your drafts and list the four players and prove your point - I will bet against

Perry, in the online BBHQ draft, #4 is Kemp and #27 is Rios. #12 is Fielder and #19 is Bautista. I don't have my copy of the NFBC BBHQ draft, but we were in it together so perhaps you have it?

[Rog]

if you are a gambling man you go Kemp or Hamilton
if you are a man of consistency you go cano or pujlos
if you are a small time gambler but a little bit above mr consistent you guy mcCutchen or cargo
if you dont fit any of these take votto

[Edwards Kings]

Votto. Age, left-handedness in Great American, batting average (line drive rate actually improved between 2011 and 2012), few can match his power and none reside in Chavez Ravine, 100+ RBI and Runs...just what you need as a team offensive anchor. May not contribute, but won't hurt in SB either.

Kemp is up and down. True, the down is not too bad, but his mid-70's contact rate while not taking as many walks as he should is concerning to his BA. If you would be happy with 2010 Kemp, by all means go for it.

McCutchen over Kemp, though that late season knee injury is concerning.

[duesman24]

After the top 3 of Miggy Braun Trout id have to say look for big yr again from pujols or take Cano to cash in next yr with huge yr for yanks. Lets start these drafts!!!

[Roy's Outlaws]

Greg, Drafting out of the 4 spot I'd go Pujols , Kemp , Mc Cutchen. Or the go big or go home pick Tulowitski. I'd stay away from Cano this early in the draft. ( I don't think he's going to handle his contract situation well this season- It will affect his play).

[Winston's Empire]

I just got the 4th Pick in the 1st 375 draft and think its great. For me, I think its Kemp or Cano, thats it. Cano is in a contract year and I just have a crazy feeling he is going to go nuts this year. Kemp, is only 1 year away from a .324-115-39-126-40 year. For a 28 year old, he might just have more than that in the tank yet! I will take Kemp all day long in the 4 spot... I think

[Lobbyist999]

don'tyaknow

[ToddZ]

I am a last second fill-in for this draft and pick right after Greg, so hopefully he'll leave me someone good

[DOUGHBOYS]

If only you had experience this year from that fifth slot

[Edwards Kings]

I am a last second fill-in for this draft and pick right after Greg, so hopefully he'll leave me someone good

Pssst! Votto!

[Greg Ambrosius]

I am a last second fill-in for this draft and pick right after Greg, so hopefully he'll leave me someone good

I'm still hopeful that one of the top three owners think Braun is on steroids and passes him to this Brewers' fan!! If not, it's down to Kemp or Cano. I like Votto, but Kemp's upside is just too appealing for me. Plus I love Age 28 players!!

[Edwards Kings]

I am a last second fill-in for this draft and pick right after Greg, so hopefully he'll leave me someone good

I'm still hopeful that one of the top three owners think Braun is on steroids and passes him to this Brewers' fan!! If not, it's down to Kemp or Cano. I like Votto, but Kemp's upside is just too appealing for me. Plus I love Age 28 players!!

It is win-win-win. I can certainly understand why Kemp is so appealing, but can you guess what year I had him on my main event team?

[Greg Ambrosius]

I am a last second fill-in for this draft and pick right after Greg, so hopefully he'll leave me someone good

I'm still hopeful that one of the top three owners think Braun is on steroids and passes him to this Brewers' fan!! If not, it's down to Kemp or Cano. I like Votto, but Kemp's upside is just too appealing for me. Plus I love Age 28 players!!

It is win-win-win. I can certainly understand why Kemp is so appealing, but can you guess what year I had him on my main event team?

Players ALWAYS excel the year AFTER you had them Wayne. I feel better already!!