Closer Runs

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 5:17 am

How many leagues experienced the mad closer runs that Tampa had? To me, that was the story of the day. In my opinion, how you reacted to that earlier than expected run will have a direct effect on your overall finish. It was funny, cause in Tampa 3, it took a while for the first closer to fall off the board, but when he did, it was like a feeding frenzy thereafter.

I chose to sit back and stockpile some offense while the top RP's fell off the board. Then jump in once the run was over and pick up a couple of lower level guys (M. Gonzalez, Fuentes...both taken earlier than I expected), then combined that with a few "closers in waiting" like Burgos (woohoo!) and Fernando Cabrera.

The question becomes, what exactly is the best way to react to a run? Should you try getting in early to secure a top guy? Should you let the run pass, but jump in late to pick up the scraps? Or should you stick with "best player available" and let the run pass entirely, even if it means getting left in the dark in the category?

I'm curious to know the different paths taken, and the reasoning behind each one.

steve · Post by **steve** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:48 am

u cant be left in the dark,grab 1 closer and wait,,pick your hitters then grab the 2nd before the run is over

kgrady · Post by **kgrady** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:51 am

I think you made a wise decision by not jumping onto the closer train. If lots of owners are taking closers too early, that means there are good players at other positions that are being passed over. To me it makes sense to grab such players and take your chances at lower-tier closers later on.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:59 am

I think getting in on one closer is a must, but if the run is absurd, which I think it was in my league (NY#3), then you might as well get a bigger step on everyone else in more than ONE CATEGORY. Although I did not get a second closer, and I consider my replacement choice being a Starting Pitcher (Rd#11) I am way ahead of most on projected pitching categories. I just can't justify taking the likes of Jones (#156) and Wickman (#129) over someone like Vazquez. There will be opportunity abound for Saves. And besides, 2 or 3 managers in my league are in the same boat. Good Starting Pitching is harder to find than Saves IMHO.

[ March 20, 2006, 01:02 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Snord35 · Post by **Snord35** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 8:37 am

Here is the rundown form CHI 1 of the 1st ten rounds

1. 4-3 (48) B. Lidge

2. 4-6 (51) B. Wagner

3. 4-7 (52) F. Rodriguez

4. 4-8 (53) M. Rivera

5. 4-10 (55) J. Nathan

6. 4-12 (57) BJ Ryan

7. 5-1 (61) E. Gagne

8. 5-2 (62) H. Street

9. 5-3 (63) C. Cordero

10. 5-7 (67) J. Isringhausen

11. 5-10 (70) T. Hoffman

12. 5-12 (72) D. Turnbow

13. 5-14 (74) M. Gonzalez

14. 6-2 (77) A. Benitez

15. 6-5 (80) F. Cordero

16. 6-9 (84) J. Valverde

17. 7-4 (94) B. Jenks

18. 7-13 (103) R. Dempster

19. 7-15 (105) T. Jones

20. 8-4 (109) B. Fuentes

21. 8-10 (115) E. Guardado

22. 8-12 (117) B. Wickman

23. 8-13 (118) T. Gordon

24. 9-8 (128) C. Ray

25. 9-11 (131) K. Foulke

I was happy with Rivera in round 4, I wanted a top 5 closer in that round, also I got Ray in round 9, had him ranked 15th on my list.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 8:44 am

That's just crazy. Especially considering all the turnover last year at this position.

My theory is that everyone looked at last year's winner's 2005 Draft and determined you must get 2 Closers early. I dunno, anyone else have a theory? I mean this year looks like it just blew away last year's Closer averages.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 8:59 am

LV8 Closers

4.14 M.Rivera

4.13 F.Rodriguez

4.11 B.Wagner

4.10 B.Lidge

4.09 J.Nathan

4.06 T.Hoffman

5.01 BJ Ryan

5.11 H.Street

6.12 E.Gagne

6.10 B.Jenks

6.07 J.Isringhausen

6.04 C.Cordero

6.02 K.Foulke

7.03 D.Turnbow

7.05 F.Cordero

7.06 E.Guardado

7.15 B.Fuentes

8.11 J.Valverde

8.10 T.Gordon

8.02 A.Benitez

9.15 M.Gonzalez

11.02 M.Ray

11.03 B.Wickman

11.05 M.MacDougal

11.08 T.Jones

13.04 R.Dempster

13.08 C.Orvella

13.09 C.Reitsma

Possible saves...

(this is where our leage was nuts)

14.02 M.Timlin

17.01 S.Shields

17.12 S.Linebrink

19.06 M.Bowyer

19.11 J.Borowski

20.14 J.Devine

20.09 D.Weathers

21.08 D.Baez

21.14 C.hansen

21.15 K.Farnsworth

22.14 D.Wheeler

22.10 T.Coffey

23.02 L.Hawkins

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:07 am

Originally posted by UFS:

LV8 Closers

4.14 M.Rivera

4.13 F.Rodriguez

4.11 B.Wagner

4.10 B.Lidge

4.09 J.Nathan

4.06 T.Hoffman

5.01 BJ Ryan

5.11 H.Street

6.12 E.Gagne

6.10 B.Jenks

6.07 J.Isringhausen

6.04 C.Cordero

6.02 K.Foulke

7.03 D.Turnbow

7.05 F.Cordero

7.06 E.Guardado

7.15 B.Fuentes

8.11 J.Valverde

8.10 T.Gordon

8.02 A.Benitez

9.15 M.Gonzalez

11.02 M.Ray

11.03 B.Wickman

11.05 M.MacDougal

11.08 T.Jones

13.04 R.Dempster

13.08 C.Orvella

13.09 C.Reitsma

Possible saves...

(this is where our leage was nuts)

14.02 M.Timlin

17.01 S.Shields

17.12 S.Linebrink

19.06 M.Bowyer

19.11 J.Borowski

20.14 J.Devine

20.09 D.Weathers

21.08 D.Baez

21.14 C.hansen

21.15 K.Farnsworth

22.14 D.Wheeler

22.10 T.Coffey

23.02 L.Hawkins Funny, all that, and Burgos wasn't even drafted.

Return of the Aces · Post by **Return of the Aces** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:14 am

For better or worse, I made my own closer run:

Francisco Rodriguez 4.13

Mariano Rivera 5.3

I was a little surprised that Billy Wagner was the first closer taken at 3.12

edelman24 · Post by **edelman24** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:18 am

I don't know about everyone else, but I've been here every year and every year Closers and Speed fly off the board its nothing new to me and after getting crushed my first year becuase of it, I have adapted well to it. I was able to get Lidge at 5-5 which I thought was a steal in NY League #7 , my goal was to get a top 5 closer in the 5th round if I couldnt do that I would have passed and waited another round or 2 and grabbed a few...I ended up with Tom Gordon in the 10th round which I thought was great value as my 2nd closer. those are just my 2 cents...

edelman24 · Post by **edelman24** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:19 am

hey MS...yea you scared me by taking those 2 guys I thought for sure team #4 was going to steal Lidge from us..thank god they took F. Hernandez instead...

rfitzg23 · Post by **rfitzg23** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:21 am

In NY6 it seemed like two rounds of closers going non-stop. Not sure if that was reality, but sure felt that way.

I lost out. I did grab Valverde and Dempster - not terrible, but not top tier. I had planned on taking a top closer in rd 5 (I had the first pick overall), but when it got to me Pedro was still there, so I went with him.

We'll see..

Scans33 · Post by **Scans33** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:25 am

The closer run in NY 1 was frantic ... if I remember correctly at least 30 closers were gone by the end of round 10. I believe Wickman and Dempster were drafted in the 7th round.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:26 am

LV8

Possible saves at 27.13 Tim Worrell. Just to complete UFS list.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:33 am

Originally posted by rfitzg23:

In NY6 it seemed like two rounds of closers going non-stop. Not sure if that was reality, but sure felt that way.

I lost out. I did grab Valverde and Dempster - not terrible, but not top tier. I had planned on taking a top closer in rd 5 (I had the first pick overall), but when it got to me Pedro was still there, so I went with him.

We'll see.. We're these guys top closers at the draft last year?

1. C.Cordero 47

2. B.Wickman 45

8. D.Baez 41

9. T.Jones 40

11. D.Turnbow 39

16. D.Hermanson 34

17. R.Dempster 33

18. B.Fuentes 31

Your two guys could easily be Cordero and Wickman from last year. Who the hell knows? It's worse than projecting wins.

5 of the above probably weren't even drafted.

I'll take T.Jones at 11 and C.Orvella at 13 and a FAAB CL and do just as well.

[ March 20, 2006, 03:46 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:39 am

Originally posted by edelman24:

I don't know about everyone else, but I've been here every year and every year Closers and Speed fly off the board its nothing new to me and after getting crushed my first year becuase of it, I have adapted well to it. I was able to get Lidge at 5-5 which I thought was a steal in NY League #7 , my goal was to get a top 5 closer in the 5th round if I couldnt do that I would have passed and waited another round or 2 and grabbed a few...I ended up with Tom Gordon in the 10th round which I thought was great value as my 2nd closer. those are just my 2 cents... I don't have the 2004 average slections but I do have the 2005. I will compare once our drfats are posted, but all indications are that this year's run was far earlier for Rds 5-10.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:45 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

LV8

Possible saves at 27.13 Tim Worrell. Just to complete UFS list.

That pick pissed me off

viper · Post by **viper** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 10:13 am

Originally posted by msamuels:

For better or worse, I made my own closer run:

Francisco Rodriguez 4.13

Mariano Rivera 5.3

I was a little surprised that Billy Wagner was the first closer taken at 3.12 NY bias in NY league

viper · Post by **viper** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 10:16 am

Originally posted by UFS:

LV8 Closers

4.14 M.Rivera

4.13 F.Rodriguez

4.11 B.Wagner

4.10 B.Lidge

4.09 J.Nathan

4.06 T.Hoffman

5.01 BJ Ryan

5.11 H.Street

6.12 E.Gagne

6.10 B.Jenks

6.07 J.Isringhausen

6.04 C.Cordero

6.02 K.Foulke

7.03 D.Turnbow

7.05 F.Cordero

7.06 E.Guardado

7.15 B.Fuentes

8.11 J.Valverde

8.10 T.Gordon

8.02 A.Benitez

9.15 M.Gonzalez

11.02 M.Ray

11.03 B.Wickman

11.05 M.MacDougal

11.08 T.Jones

13.04 R.Dempster

13.08 C.Orvella

13.09 C.Reitsma

Possible saves...

(this is where our leage was nuts)

14.02 M.Timlin

17.01 S.Shields

17.12 S.Linebrink

19.06 M.Bowyer

19.11 J.Borowski

20.14 J.Devine

20.09 D.Weathers

21.08 D.Baez

21.14 C.hansen

21.15 K.Farnsworth

22.14 D.Wheeler

22.10 T.Coffey

23.02 L.Hawkins This is a more typical "run" where there is an early run in rounds 4-7 and then a secondary run in 11-13 with a few odd-balls between the 2 runs. I script the type of player I want in each round and adjust when needed. My closers are scripted for rounds 8 & 11. This year I went 8 & 10. I have Guardado and Jones.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 10:58 am

Originally posted by viper:

quote:Originally posted by msamuels:

For better or worse, I made my own closer run:

Francisco Rodriguez 4.13

Mariano Rivera 5.3

I was a little surprised that Billy Wagner was the first closer taken at 3.12 NY bias in NY league [/QUOTE]Yeah, there's roughly a 10-15% bias in the NY leagues compared with other league locations for NY players. I am sure Chicago had something similar for Cubs and Sox players.

Kevin D · Post by **Kevin D** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:44 am

I was expecting NY players to go higher than at other sites but in NY 1 I got B.Wagner at 4.5 (the 50th pick) with 5?? others already gone. So some were going in the third stanza. I'll check my recollection when the leagues are posted.

The other Bullpen happening that was a little odd was that "Closers in Waiting" went early and often. So If you missed the Closer Run the likely replacements is already on a team.

rfitzg23 · Post by **rfitzg23** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:01 pm

Looking at it that way puts it in a different perspective...

steve · Post by **steve** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:07 pm

checking ny 1's board wagner was the 5th closer picked up the 4th round pick 5,,the 4th round started 3 closers randy johnson then wagner

that was the run

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:21 pm

Originally posted by steve:

checking ny 1's board wagner was the 5th closer picked up the 4th round pick 5,,the 4th round started 3 closers randy johnson then wagner

that was the run NY1 had all closers off the board by round 9 it seemed...umbelievable run on closers early and often...they were going one after another!! teams were getting 3 closers before others had 1.....ITS ONLY 1 CATEGORY FOLKS!!!! (not to mention many of the pitchers on steroids were relief pitchers, it helped with the rigors of pitching daily...) were talking injurg city for relief pitchers this year! DR YOKUM, where are you???

Kevin D · Post by **Kevin D** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:21 pm

So then what? I recall a short lull after my Wagner pick. Then they flew off the board, a tad longer lull and then CLosers in waiting started to go. Man I can't wait for the Leauge results to be posted.

I also thought Wright went early in every draft in NY. I was targeting him at 11 and it wasn't even close. I think he went 6th. And that with Crawford in the 3rd slot. Post draft I think that everyone saw and liked what I saw and liked about the Mets thirdsacker. So we were all thinking the same way and me hoping for him at 11 was doomed as others moved him up.