Mountain or Mole-Hill?

[Atlas]

Since its a snowy day and everything is closing early here on the east coast, I thought I'd pick some people's brain with regard to Aaron Hill. He'll be 31yo when the season opens.

The Diamondbacks just signed him to an extension. He's got to be the closet thing to Jekyll and Hyde that MLB has, which is frustrating for those of us that have drafted him.


2005- Decent .274 avg, but little power in 105 games.
2006-Avg jumps a bit to .291,in 155 games, but still no power to speak of.

2007- Maintains the .291 and finds a bit of pop hitting 17 HR, which is almost double the first 2 years combined.

2008- Throw completely out as he only played 55 games.

2009- After a wash year, he comes back with a more than serviceable .286 and pops 36 HR's and 108 RBI
This is his 27yo year.

2010- Avg takes a dump to .205, but manages 26 HR.

2011-Splits time in AZ. Over 500 combined AB's. Disappointing .246 and an even more disappointing 8 HR's. But now he finds a running game and tacks on 21 SB after never eclipsing 6.

2012-Career .302 and impressive 26 HR. with 14 SB.

I understand developing power. But an average that swings nearly .100?
And is his running game a function of the manager, team and where he was hitting in the order?

It seems that you can't pencil him in confidently for any of the categories.

Any one feel like sharing any theories, thoughts or insight?

[Edwards Kings]

"Regression to the mean" has no context for the man or his career. You know what he "can" do and many of us have been burned when he "can't" do.

You cannot win this thing without risks. I typically rank him as a BA contributor (.280 ish), great pop for the position (not 30+ but I am a believer in late or latent power), and won't hurt you in SB (not a believer in consistent late career or latent speed). He will probably bat up in the Arizona line-up (2nd) so should contribute in Runs.

Even with the inconsistency, what is not to like?