Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:31 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
Edwards Kings wrote:Do you see Julio Teheran succeeding as the 5th for the Bravos?
I do. Maybe he needed a season like last year to reduce expectations and to get him back on track. He dominated at Triple-A in 2011 and maybe last year was an eye-opener for him and the Braves. He certainly pitched well in the Dominican League (3.32 ERA, 24/9 K/BB ratio over 30 2/3 innings) and the No. 5 job is his to lose. Maybe the thread of being traded will ground him and get him back to the basics. What we have here is a lively arm, just 22 years old, potential to strike out 8+ per 9, good mechanices, etc. I like all the ingredients here for a late round flyer. His ADP is 415, so grab him Wayne in the 28th round. This one could pay off.
I wish. :D

A good spring and I will never get him in the 28th. Bad spring and I am picking up Gilmartin. Though what you said makes sense. In the "what have you done for me lately" category, he did seem to put it together for a short stretch in the DL.

The fun begins (assuming a healthy Hudson, Minor, Medlen and Maholm) if Beachey is able to make it back mid-year. Who loses?
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:37 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
Edwards Kings wrote:DH only, do you see Berkman getting 450 AB this year?
Geez, I guess anything is possible, but Berkman could just as easily get hurt running to first base or swinging and missing as he could playing the field. His knees just look shot, but the Rangers must think he has some life left in him if they signed him for $10 million. If he's hitting third in this lineup, he has run-scoring potential. I'm just not buying that he can stay healthy for 450 ABs. I'll take the under here. Others are thinking the same thing as his ADP is 328.
Don't believe that ADP. He is going earlier. I have been tracking the ADP's (i.e. the ADP when 11 drafts were complete, 21, 23, et al) so I can see who is moving up the boards. Berkman has been one of the big winners compared to where we started. From where I began tracking, his ADP moved from 435. To now average 328, that means he is currently going much earlier.

If he were still going in the 300's, I would grab him. As long as he plays, he hits. But like you said an injury is only a sneeze away, so I would have to plan on not having him.

While he is not hurt, is he having "Chipper" weeks (play four days rest two) or is he full time I guess is the real question.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:40 pm

Tom Kessenich wrote:
Edwards Kings wrote:Is Justin Morneau all the way back (say 25+ HR with a .280 BA)?
I don't think he'll ever be the player he once was. If he can make it through spring training without incident I'll feel a little better about him.
You are probably right, Tom. It would be a nice story if he could put together one more solid season (though I have hated the Twinkies since '91!). I have got to be careful not to draft based on wishes.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:54 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:
Tom Kessenich wrote:
Edwards Kings wrote:Is Justin Morneau all the way back (say 25+ HR with a .280 BA)?
I don't think he'll ever be the player he once was. If he can make it through spring training without incident I'll feel a little better about him.
You are probably right, Tom. It would be a nice story if he could put together one more solid season (though I have hated the Twinkies since '91!). I have got to be careful not to draft based on wishes.
Wayne, go young man, go young!! I'm always accused of drafting old guys who I think might bounce back the next year. It rarely works. I've learned: GO YOUNG MAN, GO YOUNG!!
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Captain Hook » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:56 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:Bourn is in Cleveland. So who takes that last spot in the Texas outfield...Martin or Gentry?
Assuming Cruz is in right they platoon

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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:09 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Quahogs wrote:Greg,

So what do you think about Lowry's new writing gig ? :lol: Are congrats in order ?

And how about this Braun thing? :lol: Do you think he's guilty?
Sure. He's guilty. Happy?

Now, back to following the NFBC trends to see if the real concern is whether he will be SUSPENDED for 50 games or not. So far it doesn't look that way and NFBC owners are saying so with their picks each night.

Note to self-
Do not make attempt at Braun humor with Greg.... :lol:
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:27 am

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Wayne, go young man, go young!! I'm always accused of drafting old guys who I think might bounce back the next year. It rarely works. I've learned: GO YOUNG MAN, GO YOUNG!!
You got it! Bryce Harper in the 1st! 8-)

Image

From RotoWorld, Bryce Harper, pictured above, claims to be in the best shape of his life!
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Tuesday, 3 pm ET

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:49 am

Not to go "Lord Zola" on everyone, but I decided to take a look at ages versus production for the 2012 stats. My population were those MLB players with 350+ AB for the year. There were 196 batters in that population (or about 31% of the players who had official AB last year). This is a good number to me because it will cover most of the players we recieved "benefit" from last year.

Of those players, I broke them into three general sub-categories predicated on age. The young blood (19-25, who make up 23% of the target population), the sweet spot (26-32, or 63%), and the Bengays (33+, or 14%).

As Doughboys labeled me (correctly), I am an AB guy. Can't drive in a run from the bench. So the question becomes, from within the target group, was one or the other more or less represented when it comes to total AB. The answer ended up being "no". Each grouping, within tenths of a percent, had equally distributed AB in relation to their percentage of the target population (i.e. the young bloods got 23% of the AB, the sweet spots 63%, et al).

So what did they do with their chances? The young bloods, in no real surprise, out performed in stolen bases by garnering 30% at the expense of the sweet spots (59%) and Bengays (11%). However, in the power categories, the sweet spots showed that the old adage about maturing into power is still true getting 66% of the HR and 65% of the RBI's, to the expense of the young bloods in both categories (21% and 21% respectively). Strangely enough, the Bengays proved there is still some in the tank and held their power numbers relative to their population (14% and 14% respectively).

In the Runs category, strangely enough, each category was equally represented in relation to their percentage of the target population. One more bit of power numerish. On average, the young bloods averaged 15.6 HR per player, the sweet spots 18.3, and the Bengays 16.9.

So, definitely go young when chasing speed, but don't go crazy because those guys in the prime of their careers (ages 26 to 32) still give you the best chance at power.

Need help with BA? Of course, you have to judge each player individually, but as a group, the young bloods had a collective 0.266 BA, the sweet spots 0.270, and the Bengays 0.275.

Go Old Dudes! :lol:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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