Live Chat With Todd Zola: Tuesday, 7 pm ET

[ToddZ]

Todd,

Hypothetical: Buster Olney reports that so-and-so scout says Colby Rasmus has adjusted his swing this off season and looks like a much improved hitter this spring. Obviously, you can't quantify your player projections to account for this piece of information. And with spring right around the corner, we will be hearing much more news like this hypothetical situation. How much stock do you put in these nuggets of info. Do you let it sway you a lot? a little? none at all and let your projections be your sole guide?

News such as that is just another piece of information that need to be assimilated. You need to judge the credibility of the reporter and plausibility of the conclusion and factor that into your decision. I talked about risk before. Relying on one of these reports is really nothing more than taking a risk. Maybe if I am looking at Rasmus and say Andre Ethier or Josh Reddick -- maybe I break the tie with Rasmus because of the news.

Who would you rather draft as of this moment:
Rosario or Wieters and why?

Wieters -- Rosario's K% scares the heck out of me and his defense isn't good enough to keep him in there. I'm not going to say this is the year Wieters turns into Mark Teixeira with a catcher's mitt, but Wieters and Rosario should hit a similar number of HR with a higher BA for Wieters.

J Shields or K Medlen and why?

- A bit of a risk/reward type question. I'd want them as my SP3. If I felt I needed to go for the upside with the pick, I'd take Medlen. If I wanted to build stability, I'd take Shields. An example of when I'd take Medlen is if I waited on my SP1 and SP2 and felt I needed to make up a little ground. On the other hand, if either of my SP1 or SP2 were a bit of a risk (Darvish, Sale, Gio), I would prefer to balance with Shields.

C Gomez or C Crawford and why?

Another risk reward pick with both being risks. Crawford is the type of chance I know I need to take, but will admittedly have a hard time doing. I'll rationalize that if he's healthy, he'll give me speed and I can always get speed later from a more reliable source (Gardner, Pierre, Revere) or just nickel and dime SB and embellish with guys that are not complete Judy's like Crisp and Pagan. Gomez, on the other hand can be looked at with numerish by noting a HF/FB trending upwards and the likelihood of more playing time with Nyjer Morgan out of the picture - since I can back the risk with analysis, I'm more apt to take the Gomez chance than the Crawford chance.

Cespedes or B Harper and why?

This one is ironic because I've been in some backstage discussions about this very choice. I'll take Cespedes, but likely this is the last year I would say that. I'm concerned about Yoenis staying healthy and repeating his better than expected K%. With Harper, I just want to see it again - I know he's got #1 pick overall talent, but I want to see what happens in his second year.

And finally just for fun:
If you had to name one hitter and one pitcher currently being drafted after round 10 that will be drafted next year before round 10, who would you choose off the top of your head??

Kyle Seager and Brett Anderson

If you want more daring, Manny Machado and Jarrod Parker

[Quahogs]

Todd,

Sell me on your projections.

For example: 514 84 31 87 0 .300 - This is D.Ortiz' projection. Is it mostly formulaic or sort of a gut feel ?

After the season is over do you review your accuracy ? I'm sure nailing a player's #'s is quite a feat. I mean did anyone forecast Jeter leading the AL in hits ? Impossible. Barring injury (if you DO review your projection's success/failures) do find players generally exceed to the upside or fail to the downside ?

I don't do any sophisticated projections myself. But I'm finding a need to refine the feel I have for a particular player. I need more than my rudimentary idea of what a player should do so for the first time I'm culling this info. Sell me on your projections Todd !

[ToddZ]

Todd,

Sell me on your projections.

For example: 514 84 31 87 0 .300 - This is D.Ortiz' projection. Is it mostly formulaic or sort of a gut feel ?

After the season is over do you review your accuracy ? I'm sure nailing a player's #'s is quite a feat. I mean did anyone forecast Jeter leading the AL in hits ? Impossible. Barring injury (if you DO review your projection's success/failures) do find players generally exceed to the upside or fail to the downside ?

I don't do any sophisticated projections myself. But I'm finding a need to refine the feel I have for a particular player. I need more than my rudimentary idea of what a player should do so for the first time I'm culling this info. Sell me on your projections Todd !

Darn it Steve, I owe you an e-mail, sorry

99% of my projections are 100% formulaic. A projection is nothing more than a weighted average of the most plausible outcomes. Getting hit by a bus and playing 2 games being hyperbolic and not plausible.

Studies show a weighted average is the best foundation, then regress the luck related stats, adjust for aging, lineup and team. The playing time guesstimate is as important as the skills.

The two areas I review each off-season is the means I regress BABIP for both hitters and pitchers and my MLE's - the translation of minor league stats to major league equivalents. I find the most "misses" are on the players with the least experience, which is not uncommon. That's where the MLE's come into play and I am wondering if younger players should be regressed more than older players.

The problem with projections is they are presented as static numbers but should really be considered a range. This range can come from degrees of regression as well as playing time expectation.

I know some people say they don't use projections, but in essence they do, they just don't use algorithms to derive them. What you expect the player to do is your projection. It could be as simple as "better than last year", "worse than last year" or "the same as last year."

To me, projections are a basis to make decisions, not the whole kit and caboodle. There is risk, upside versus downside and some less tangible factors like being on a new team, or a new hitting coach or new pitch.

From the perspective of my draft kit, I use the profiles to go a little "kayfabe" - the term used when pro wrestlers go out of character and don't play a character. I'll share some gut feels or places I think there may be hidden upside or downside.

For those pretty good at using feel but looking for a couple of quick means of incorporating numerish, the place to start is contact rate, walk rate, BABIP and HR/FB for hitters. For pitchers it is K/9, BB/9, BABIP and HR/FB. What you're looking for is how much or performance is skill and how much is happenstance.

A lot of this is what I would have e-mailed, but I'll catch up with you in a bit and send some links that goes into more detail.

[Hells Satans]

Please don't provide Steve with any additional information. Or, if you do, provide him with bad information.


Sincerely,

The Rest of The NFBC

[rockitsauce]

Todd, I think you missed this query buried under Big Ern McCracken

Serious question Todd, w/ all the changes that teams make each yr w/ regard to who actually GETS THE SAVES, have you ever thought about skipping on the established closers (which of course cost a much higher draft pk) & maybe grabbing a few guys (Pestano, Gregerson, Melancon) that you can get much later and take your chances on the waiver wire during the season ?

I think I read somewhere that only 10 tm's last yr had the same closer in Oct that they did in April. Do you feel that was just an anomaly or is that the way MLB is headed ? This time last yr Farnsworth was TB's closer and McGee was next in line. I recall taking Rodney (rd 38 ?) in our Marcel Lge simply b/c I knew that both he & Maddon had been on the Angels together...and at that pt in the draft (as we all know) the picking are slim. Turned out to be prob. my best pk and one that def. helped me almost overtake Dough to win that sucker.

I realize there are no guarantees you'll win the closer lottery during the season, but w/ last yr as a perfect example is it not a viable strategy ?

[ToddZ]

Sorry, did miss it.

What we seem to forget is this time last season, we were commenting on how stable the closer landscape was the previous season.

In a stand alone league, I think you can bag saves and win if you reallocate your assets wisely.

In any overall contest, while I will not say you absolutely cannot win with this, your margin of error is minimal.

But the question wasn't completely bagging saves, but getting them in season.

I'll never go into a draft with that plan, but if I miss out on the closers I consider stable, I won't force it. As an example, I'd rather pass on Broxton than take him. I think you need 2 1/2 closers to win. I'd prefer to leave the draft with 2 and a speculative pick that turns into my half.

But if leave the draft with 1 1/2, I'm OK with finding one in FAAB.

I just don't want to find all 90 saves in reserve and/or FAAB. The competition for them is huge. Who's to say you end up with Wilhelmsen and not Dolis or Henderson.

I actually think the closer landscape is more stable than perceived. I review the closers on Mastersball home page today.

[swampass]

thanks for taking some questions. it seems as though there is a whole band of starting pitchers making their way back from injury. they could be available in or around the all star break. obviously some of those guys may be ready and others may need more time.

in the main event what are your thoughts on using bench space waiting for players to return either from injury or younger players getting the call up? are your bench spots too valuable to waste on wait and see's? are there any players coming back from injury or young up and comers that you are willing to stash on your bench waiting on their arrival/return?

also, are you at all concerned about the new platoon groove sweeping the league? it seems like unless you are a great left handed hitter you are sitting vs left handed pitching every time.

thanks

[ToddZ]

thanks for taking some questions. it seems as though there is a whole band of starting pitchers making their way back from injury. they could be available in or around the all star break. obviously some of those guys may be ready and others may need more time.

in the main event what are your thoughts on using bench space waiting for players to return either from injury or younger players getting the call up? are your bench spots too valuable to waste on wait and see's? are there any players coming back from injury or young up and comers that you are willing to stash on your bench waiting on their arrival/return?

also, are you at all concerned about the new platoon groove sweeping the league? it seems like unless you are a great left handed hitter you are sitting vs left handed pitching every time.

thanks

With all the injuries in today's game, I want to squeeze all the stats I can out of my squad as early as possible which means streaming pitchers and clever use of the Friday deadline so I'd much rather not stash either a prospect or a pitcher returning from injury. I'd rather use Clayton Richard's 2.80 ERA at PETCO than draft Cory Luebke and wait.

The platoons are what they are -- everyone is picking from the same inventory. I see it as a means to take best advantage of the Fri rule. I also like to target platoon guys that are one injury away from an injury prone player to becoming a regular.

[ToddZ]

Sorry, caught in traffic but back in the basement...fire away

[Red Sox Nation-]

Hi Todd- What does your ideal bench look like after the draft?
how many bats? are they all different positions?
How many pitchers? any save speculations? minor leaguers

Thanks

Jason

[Wolfpac]

I know value is the key, however generally at what round would you generally worst case have your SP1, SP2 and SP3. Meaning by the completion of round 7 or 8 you should have at least 2 starters etc.. I'm mostly concerned with timing for top 3 SP's. I have had some debates with my partner who is not high on pitching but I've tried to explain to him in these sharp 15 team contests pitching is a premium

[ToddZ]

Hi Todd- What does your ideal bench look like after the draft?
how many bats? are they all different positions?
How many pitchers? any save speculations? minor leaguers

Thanks

Jason

I'd like 3 hitters that cover all positions - if I have a SS as my MI, I want a 2B on reserve. I'd like one MR that I can use to help during tough match-ups, preferably a would-be closer but he doesn't have to be. Then I'd like 2 SP to stream, that's six. For the seventh, it depends on whether I feel I need another OF to maximize Fri moves or a SP for streaming.

[Bronx Yankees]

A few quickies:

Latos or Cueto?

R.A. Dickey - over or under on 15 wins and 180 Ks in AL East?

Marte, Eaton or Maybin?

1B/CI rankings - C. Davis, I. Davis, Morales, LaRoche, Rizzo, Hosmer, Howard?

Estrada or Fiers?

Tempted to grab Halladay or Lincecum at much lower ADPs or do you think they still are too risky?

If you have time, would love to hear the "why" for your answers. Thanks, Todd!

Mike

[ToddZ]

I know value is the key, however generally at what round would you generally worst case have your SP1, SP2 and SP3. Meaning by the completion of round 7 or 8 you should have at least 2 starters etc.. I'm mostly concerned with timing for top 3 SP's. I have had some debates with my partner who is not high on pitching but I've tried to explain to him in these sharp 15 team contests pitching is a premium

Doughy has turned me, value means nothing,

My philosophy is to draft the pitcher, not the round. Sorry Greg, I know it's a great marketing tool but the ADP gets tossed out the window.

Before the draft. I determine what I want my ERA/WHIP to look like. I then tier the pitchers and figure out how many I need from what tier to end up with that ERA/WHIP. I'll have multiple plans -- some with a tier 1 as the first guy, a few using a tier guy as my SP1 and one with a tier 3 guy as the SP1 in case I miss all the runs. 95% of the time I'll start with a tier 2 guy.

But I don't draft him according to ADP -- I go with the flow and take him when the other arms in his tier are being drafted. There's no such thing as value versus ADP. I know what I need to end up with a certain staff and will time the picks to get them when they are being taken.

[Wolfpac]

When setting my KDS i've ranked the top 30 players and i've tiered them and see which two pick combos provide the best combination. Is this a sound strategy?

[Gekko]

Thoughts on Chris Parmelee as well as how many HR he gets. Thanks.

[ToddZ]

A few quickies:

Latos or Cueto?

Depends on the composition or intended composition. I have them ranked equally (in same tier). If I need K's I'll go Latos. If I want some ratio protection I'll take Cueto.

R.A. Dickey - over or under on 15 wins and 180 Ks in AL East?

My projection is actually for 15 wins and 173 K so you're line is very Vegas like -- bets will be equal to both sides.

Marte, Eaton or Maybin?

Maybin -- I know he'll play. If Marte or Eaton struggle, there are reinforcements waiting

1B/CI rankings - C. Davis, I. Davis, Morales, LaRoche, Rizzo, Hosmer, Howard?

Rizzo, LaRoche, I Davis, Hosmer, C Davis, Morales, Howard

Estrada or Fiers?

Estrada and not even close, he can be my SP4 anytime

Tempted to grab Halladay or Lincecum at much lower ADPs or do you think they still are too risky?

Don't care about their ADP but if they're around when I feel I need some upside, I'll take one gladly, more likely Lincecum for the whiffs.

[Gekko]

I've seen a lot of owners with a mancrush on Jay Bruce this year. Going in the 3rd round in a lot of leagues.

Other than people overvaluing his "young" age, why do u think he is going 4 rounds before Trumbo, 5 rounds before Willingham, and 6 rounds before LaRoche?

[Bronx Yankees]

Thanks, Todd. Appreciate the insight.

[ToddZ]

When setting my KDS i've ranked the top 30 players and i've tiered them and see which two pick combos provide the best combination. Is this a sound strategy?

No - unless you have a comfortable Plan B and Plan C in case your league goes off chalk.

I'd look for the spot where there are the most combinations you like.

I focus on the first round because that's what is easiest to predict and then prepare to take what's given to me after.

[ToddZ]

Thoughts on Chris Parmelee as well as how many HR he gets. Thanks.

Love him as an OF5, will take him as OF4 if I am afraid someone else will take him. His K% spiked last season but his history says it can improve. If he makes more contact, 20 HR is plausible, though mid teens is the reasonable expectation. Runs and RBI could be an issue.

[ToddZ]

I've seen a lot of owners with a mancrush on Jay Bruce this year. Going in the 3rd round in a lot of leagues.

Other than people overvaluing his "young" age, why do u think he is going 4 rounds before Trumbo, 5 rounds before Willingham, and 6 rounds before LaRoche?

Some are paying for the name on the back of the uniform and the pedigree.

Others are paying for the potential. His HR/FB has risen for the past two seasons and some think it will continue to rise.

[swampass]

we had jay bruce last year. he was frustrating yet a joy to own. he was god awful against left handed pitching and dusty started sitting him against them later in the year. id say we could see more heisey this year spelling both choo and bruce vs lefties. prior to last year bruce was ok vs lefties so maybe he can revert there, but after seeing him last season attempt it i dont know if i trust him.

thoughts on bruce when/if he has to replace choo in center? everything i read said that choo wont be able to handle CF defense. is this true? i worry about bruce exerting more defensive effort and cutting into his O.

[ToddZ]

we had jay bruce last year. he was frustrating yet a joy to own. he was god awful against left handed pitching and dusty started sitting him against them later in the year. id say we could see more heisey this year spelling both choo and bruce vs lefties. prior to last year bruce was ok vs lefties so maybe he can revert there, but after seeing him last season attempt it i dont know if i trust him.

thoughts on bruce when/if he has to replace choo in center? everything i read said that choo wont be able to handle CF defense. is this true? i worry about bruce exerting more defensive effort and cutting into his O.

Honestly, who knows? It's just a guess by any of us. I'm not worrying about it.

[Bronx Yankees]

Let's say there are certain positional runs that are more extreme than normal. In recent 50-round drafts, I have seen (in different drafts) very big runs on RPs, MIs and CIs. When that happens, part of me doesn't want to get left with scraps, but, typically, my stronger urge is not to reach for a player using a much higher pick than what I think the player is worth, so I tend to go against the grain and stock up on other positions, figuring I will be better overall with stronger players at most positions even if that leaves me very weak at one position.

How do you handle that situation, especially when you are drafting close to one end (where you have a big gap between some picks). Is your strategy different for RPs versus batters?

Thanks again for sharing your perspectives.

Mike