The Top Four...Till They're Not

[DOUGHBOYS]

If somebody takes somebody besides Braun, Trout, Cabrera, or Cano with a top 4 pick, it is usually followed by a comment about the size of testicles that drafter has.
It's the time of the season. No, not 'the Zombie's hit.
At this time of the season, it is hard for our minds to think that anybody but those four are top 4 worthy.
Well, we're stupid.
Without a doubt, one, two, three, or even all four of these players won't be in the top four next year.
Not a doubt. Yet, there they are in almost every draft.
We each have our own personal opinions. We're not sheep. Yet, here we are.
Braun is taken because of his five category goodness and durability.
Trout is taken because he could be a healthy Mickey Mantle.
Cabrera is taken because, simply, he is the best hitter in baseball.
Cano is taken because of four category goodness and his position.

Growing up as fantasy players, we are told over and over again, not to take the last year of statistics over those of other stats. That once a player has a skill, he owns that skill. Blah, blah, blah.
The last year IS the most important year in setting up who were taking this year. Just look at those top four. Each having a wonderful 2012.
Matt Kemp was the number one pick last year. He proved to be mortal and got hurt last year. No player gets hurt and stays in the top four. It's a sin that Mike Trout has not committed yet.
Trout is indestructible...till he isn't. So Trout gets top billing and Kemp falls to also ran first rounder status
Cabrera has taken over 'best hitter in the game' title from Albert Pujols. Pujols had consecutive bad months last year. The best hitter in baseball NEVER has two consecutive bad months. Pujols recovered, but like Kemp, he is now considered, mortal. Subject to bad months. A top four draftee hardly has one bad month, let alone two...till he does.
Braun is Carlos Gonzalez without injury. Injury has put CarGo down to the middle-end of the first round. CarGo drops more because every year he seems to catch a little bit of Youkitis. An affliction that drives fantasy owners crazy.
The question with Braun is whether he does or doesn't. So far, he's only eliminated himself from induction into the Hall of Fame. Braun is a reminder that ALL players are mortal. Even if healthy, they could be TOO healthy and then they're missing 50 games.

It doesn't take cajones to take MCutchen or Pujols or Votto or Kemp over the top four. All it takes is a belief that they simply will outperform one of those four players. If we take Wright over Longoria or Beltre over Hamilton, it is met with a shoulder shrug. Even though Longoria and Hamilton are ahead in adp. That happens in the second round where it seems to be more ok.
So much has been talked about these top four that they've almost become the four Presidents on Mt. Rushmore. Only we forget that our four players are not set in stone like those Presidents formations are.

Before asking me, I'll tell you.
No, I don't have those four as my top four. At the moment, two of them are in my top four. If a definitive answer comes on Braun, he may slip back in, I don't know.
Maybe it's me, but as a fantasy drafter, I'm leery of Braun. Even if exonerated from this Miami thing, he's had his name out there twice for PED's. That's a trend.
And in the back of my mind, I see my team cruising in first place in June, only to see this headline....

YOUR BEST PLAYER, RYAN BRAUN SUSPENDED FOR 50 GAMES!...YES, YOU'RE SCREWED, STUPID!!!

There is something wrong with every player in baseball. Even 'our' top four players.
If injury were not a part of the game, Tulowitzki and Longoria could be in the top four. But they are. And they aren't.
No pitchers are EVER in the top four. It's said they can only cover four categories and that's the reason.
That's crap.
Cabrera and Cano only cover four categories.
A pitcher never gets in the top four, simply because they are pitchers. If we had to break down our starting nine pitchers to three right handers, three lefties, and three any armed. THEN, there would be a possibility that a pitcher would crack the top four. Johan Santana was taken at the height of his career in the middle of the first round. Being left handed, he easily could have been a top four pick under this scenario. But until we don't just lump all pitchers together, I can't see a pitcher being a consensus top four pick.

Screw ADP!
That's my advice for somebody that comes up through the Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, and home leagues. There are ways to make adp work for us, but following it is like asking a lemming where they're going and following them because they look so confident.
If those top four are YOUR top four....GOOD! You're on the same page as many others.
If those top four are NOT your top four....Good! You believe in your own player(s)
We're in a hobby where we're never wrong...till we are.

[OaktownSteve]

The truth is, nobody knows the fate of any particular player going into a given year. All the anaylsis, calculation, spreadsheets, scouting, speculation and conversation in the world doesn’t change that.

There is quote from a writer named Anais Nin: “we do not see the world as it is. We see it as we are.” It’s interesting the way these four players have coalesced at the top this year (and I like how you break them down) because each represents a logical projection for a different type of fantasy player. Cabrera appeals to the conservative. Braun appeals to those who look at the stats objectively and pick the best player. Trout appeals to the dreamer, the upside picker. Cano appeals to the drafter who believes that having an edge at a position where talent is thinner is a winning strategy, the scarcity drafter. But these are reflections of the character of the drafter and it really tells us nothing about what is likely to happen on the field. And of course, there are a few iconoclasts out there who are going to go against the established pecking order and pick outside that top 4 either because they believe they have secret sauce or because it’s just in their nature to do so.

I suppose the point of this is that just as there is no particular reason to believe these four players will be the top performers, there is also no particular reason to believe that they won’t be other than the fact that history tells us they won’t be. But which of those top 4 won’t be top performers and who will be instead? Nobody knows for sure, so why not pick them? Maybe it’s not that people are sheep; it may be that there just isn’t any compelling reason to do anything else.

Everybody talks about player selection in the early rounds, but the truth is all the information available about those players is pretty widely understood. But even in this day and age of massive amounts of information, there are still hidden gems to be found in the later rounds and the best fantasy owners seem to find them year in and year out. Seems to me from reviewing the last few years of data in the NFBC that Mr. Hinkelman is particularly good at finding these guys. I suspect it’s because he watches a tremendous amount of actual baseball and is able to see the growth and changes in player that haven’t yet been reflected in the statistical evidence.

I think what it comes down to is that the first few selections in a draft really should be about what team you are trying to construct, with much less speculation about which player will outperform another. If you choose a group of players with good batting average, you can go after low batting average steals or power guys later. If you wait on pitching, it’s because you trust your ability to find good pitchers later. If you try to get balanced players, it’s because you like the flexibility it gives you later. Which categories will you attack and which ones will have you scrambling.

We talk too much about which player will perform and so often the talk is so definitive, as if projects about a specific player are anything more than a shot in the dark. What I do believe is true though, is that some people are better at projecting performance than others (and there are many paths to get there). What you want is to be right just a little bit more than the other guy and to have a framework and a plan for the whole mess.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Perfect Steve and it's good to have you back.
I made a bit more of the top four on purpose. To me, it takes more cajones to take Evan Longoria at his adp than taking Kemp, Pujols, or Votto, or a player of our choice over the top four.
First, it was a top three at the beginning of drafting season, but Cano has established himself as the Ringo to the other three's John, Paul, and George.
Personality is infused in our draft choice as well. If at or near the top of a draft, life is easier. We know who we covet and there is a good chance in getting that player we do covet. The lower our draft pick, the more scenarios that have to be engaged.
I focus on the top four and it really means little. Less than a third of us will even have the thought in any given draft.
All of us will have a chance to take Tulo or Longoria. And whether we draft or pass on Tulo or Longoria, our balls will remain the same size in other drafters estimation.

I want to comment on another subject that involves players nowhere near the top four.
Zack Greinke and Ichiro Suzuki.
You may think this is an odd couple, but today they're close.
Yesterday in an interview, Greinke spoke of how he would have gone to the biggest bidder. The team that offered the most money. Even trying to squeeze a few extra bucks from the Rangers after the Dodgers last offer. He said that no thought was given to the records of any team making an offer, only the offers themselves. Several members of the press find his candidness refreshing.
Candidness aside, I think less of Greinke as a real baseball player. He'll join Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez on a team that is awash in talent, but evaporating in tenacity.
In the meantime, Ichiro passes on more money to go to a winner in the Yankees. Ichiro cannot foresee the future and know if the Yankees will be a winner. He just knows that in the past, the Yankees were winners. And THAT is what mattered. He had little of winning in Seattle. His priority is different than Greinke's.
This mindset could speak to the way that Greinke has a hard time in wiggling out of troubled innings the way a Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee would. Maybe that's what keeps him from being picked in drafts higher.
The tenacity is missing. It's ever-apparent with grinders like Halladay and Lee. And maybe, it is apparent to fantasy drafters as well.

[Bronx Yankees]

Dan - Good point re Greinke. I lost a lot of respect for him based on that comment. I do not begrudge anyone from going after big bucks. Greinke presumably has worked long and hard to put himself in a position to score big as a free agent. If he wants to maximize his salary, well, he wouldn't be the only one with that goal. That being said, I would bet - or at least hope - that most of today's MLB stars, once they got into their desired salary range, would happily take a few less bucks to pitch for a perennial World Series contender as opposed to the cellar dweller. If Greinke tried to get the most money possible from the Dodgers, Rangers and Angels - fine; all of those teams should compete year after year, at least in the foreseeable future. But, would Greinke really have eschewed the Dodgers to make an extra million pitching for the Astros? If so, then that says a lot about where his true priorities lie.

Sorry to take this off-topic, but you made a great distinction between Greinke and Suzuki.

Mike

[OaktownSteve]

Dan I don't think your Greinke-Ichiro comparison is too far off the topic of your original post. In that first post you say that there's is something wrong with every player. I would offer that the converse is always true as well; there's something right about every player. Let's flip the Greinke Ichiro comparison around again. In the case of Greinke, we play a game in which we are rewarded for selecting the player with the best stats. If Greinke exhibits that level of selfishness, perhaps he's the kind of player that can only be happy when his ERA is solid. If he's succeeding, he's happy. So even if the Dodgers have an all-star implosion like the Lakers this year, perhaps we can expect Greinke to go rolling merrily along, impervious to it all.

In the case of Ichiro, he's been accused of being a bit of a clubhouse lawyer and a self-oriented player for years. He certainly never really seemed to lead the Mariners to consistent winning or to raise the game of the players around him. Perhaps the move to the Yankees, where he'll hit 9th, is more an indication of his hope to plug into a winning situation without being the catalyst himself. And if the Yankees then struggle this year, what happens to his motivation?

And of course there is the final caution that we don't actually know either one of these guys personally. We're dealing with half-finished narratives relayed through media and the little we can see with our own eyes on the field. Once again, we see the world that we want to see. If we think of ourselves as grinders and good guys then we'll want to divide up the world into people like us and people not. But how much does it really correlate to what the perrformance on the field. Tough to know.

All that being said, I'm not opposed to trying to read the tea leaves with players. They're human beings afterall and I like to think of myself as a pretty good observer of human beings. And it really is the one area where nobody else has the information you have. Everybody has access to the same numbers, but nobody else has access to just what you see with your own eyes.

[DOUGHBOYS]

You're a man after my own heart, Steve.
Jonathon Papelbon got lit up in a spring training game yesterday or the day before. He thought he had struck out a hitter early in the inning and ended up walking him. He was peeved. At least peeved in a body motion way. And afterwards, easily hittable.
It reminded me of a Greinke game last year. Only his reaction was not the same as Papelbon.
While Papelbon was visibly upset at the home plate umpire, Greinke had a different reaction. His shoulders slumped and he turned away from home plate as if being scolded or admonished by the home plate umpire. Seemingly sulking. The results were the same, Greinke too, was lit up afterwards.
Two different personalities. Two different body reactions. Two like events. Two like results.

We could come away thinking that Papelbon got 'too fired up' or that Greinke 'could not recover' over the perceived missed calls. The truth is, we don't know what was in their heads at all. We are like players at a poker game looking for a 'tell'.
And when we think we've found that tell, we play our hunch.

[OaktownSteve]

This obsession with the draft. Yeah, it's important. But I just got done looking at Mr. Jupinka's team that finished 5th in the overall Main Event last year.

Started with the draft and looked all the way through to the end of the season. To be honest, when I looked at the roster coming out of the draft I was like, how the hell did this team finish 5th. The FAAB pick ups are pretty astonishing. Almost uncanny. Trout, Aoki, Plouffe, Parmalee, R. Soriano, Cishek, Perkins, J. Parker. That's an unbelievable amount of production from guys he didn't draft. I'm going to set my first 5 rounds to auto draft and spend the extra time trying to figure out how to master FAAB. It's that 6th sense for pick ups that makes all the differnce.

[Quahogs]

This obsession with the draft. Yeah, it's important. But I just got done looking at Mr. Jupinka's team that finished 5th in the overall Main Event last year.

Started with the draft and looked all the way through to the end of the season. To be honest, when I looked at the roster coming out of the draft I was like, how the hell did this team finish 5th. The FAAB pick ups are pretty astonishing. Almost uncanny. Trout, Aoki, Plouffe, Parmalee, R. Soriano, Cishek, Perkins, J. Parker. That's an unbelievable amount of production from guys he didn't draft. I'm going to set my first 5 rounds to auto draft and spend the extra time trying to figure out how to master FAAB. It's that 6th sense for pick ups that makes all the differnce.

You are correct in your assessment Steve. Not quite 5th O/A material. Not even top half of the league material. For example if you remove Trout's stats from my team and replace them with an A.Ethier this team drops to 25th O/A. Getting this team to 5th O/A was more about good fortune than skill in my mind.

What this team did teach me was that my category build was way out of whack. Not just that day but my drafts in general. I'm aware of targets and I do track where I think I am but I wasn't focusing on what was important and my projections were lacking.

I think (hope) what I discovered during the off season was that what I was doing right was more by feel than proof. And the mistakes were very apparent. I think playing league after league season after season has opened my eyes over time to what really matters. Knowledge of the FA pool year to year also allows you to feel comfortable cheating a little on draft day.

[Money]

This obsession with the draft. Yeah, it's important. But I just got done looking at Mr. Jupinka's team that finished 5th in the overall Main Event last year.

Started with the draft and looked all the way through to the end of the season. To be honest, when I looked at the roster coming out of the draft I was like, how the hell did this team finish 5th. The FAAB pick ups are pretty astonishing. Almost uncanny. Trout, Aoki, Plouffe, Parmalee, R. Soriano, Cishek, Perkins, J. Parker. That's an unbelievable amount of production from guys he didn't draft. I'm going to set my first 5 rounds to auto draft and spend the extra time trying to figure out how to master FAAB. It's that 6th sense for pick ups that makes all the differnce.

You are correct in your assessment Steve. Not quite 5th O/A material. Not even top half of the league material. For example if you remove Trout's stats from my team and replace them with an A.Ethier this team drops to 25th O/A. Getting this team to 5th O/A was more about good fortune than skill in my mind.

What this team did teach me was that my category build was way out of whack. Not just that day but my drafts in general. I'm aware of targets and I do track where I think I am but I wasn't focusing on what was important and my projections were lacking.

I think (hope) what I discovered during the off season was that what I was doing right was more by feel than proof. And the mistakes were very apparent. I think playing league after league season after season has opened my eyes over time to what really matters. Knowledge of the FA pool year to year also allows you to feel comfortable cheating a little on draft day.

I would imagine Trout was drafted and thrown back? What did he cost you?

[Quahogs]

$52 I believe ? Not 100% because STATS removed the FAAB activity from last season. Greg, any word on when/if STATS can add this back ?

[Money]

$52 I believe ? Not 100% because STATS removed the FAAB activity from last season. Greg, any word on when/if STATS can add this back ?

Yes, I noticed that the free agent info is no longer available, it would be nice info to still have.

You obviously grabbed him before he came up. That's got to be a record free agent pick up.

[Quahogs]

I think he was dropped after week 1 or 2 and grabbed right after that . Quite possibly Trout was the biggest catch in 10 years !

[DOUGHBOYS]

Does it gall others as much as it galls me that information is taken away at the end of the year?
It just shouldn't be.

[Quahogs]

Does it gall others as much as it galls me that information is taken away at the end of the year?
It just shouldn't be.

In the days of terabyte thumb drives (basically unlimited storage) and advertising revenue driven by site squatting you would think that pulling data shouldn't occur. Unless it was done in error ? But it would be nice if that was set back up.

[Hells Satans]

This obsession with the draft. Yeah, it's important. But I just got done looking at Mr. Jupinka's team that finished 5th in the overall Main Event last year.

Started with the draft and looked all the way through to the end of the season. To be honest, when I looked at the roster coming out of the draft I was like, how the hell did this team finish 5th. The FAAB pick ups are pretty astonishing. Almost uncanny. Trout, Aoki, Plouffe, Parmalee, R. Soriano, Cishek, Perkins, J. Parker. That's an unbelievable amount of production from guys he didn't draft. I'm going to set my first 5 rounds to auto draft and spend the extra time trying to figure out how to master FAAB. It's that 6th sense for pick ups that makes all the differnce.

You are correct in your assessment Steve. Not quite 5th O/A material. Not even top half of the league material. For example if you remove Trout's stats from my team and replace them with an A.Ethier this team drops to 25th O/A. Getting this team to 5th O/A was more about good fortune than skill in my mind.

What this team did teach me was that my category build was way out of whack. Not just that day but my drafts in general. I'm aware of targets and I do track where I think I am but I wasn't focusing on what was important and my projections were lacking.

I think (hope) what I discovered during the off season was that what I was doing right was more by feel than proof. And the mistakes were very apparent. I think playing league after league season after season has opened my eyes over time to what really matters. Knowledge of the FA pool year to year also allows you to feel comfortable cheating a little on draft day.

I don't think it's luck Steve. I look back at the Ultimate League we were in last year and felt the same way about your team. Not the best draft, but you ended up in 3rd because of your FAAB skills. Excelling at FAAB is what makes the best players in these leagues so damn good. It's why there are repeat champions and why a handful of guys always finish near top. I, on the other hand, always feel like I leave the draft with a good team but completely bomb in FAAB.

We should do big money team together next year. I'll draft. You do the rest.

[Edwards Kings]

Don't let Steve fool you. He has help!

[Quahogs]

Thanks Bob, yeah that one had me scrambling. Right out of the shoot BA and PX weak. Masterson's 150IP just about torpedoed my staff all himself. But enough hits (posey gio rajai Laroche) to keep the misses (duda bourjos lind) afloat.
It is harder to fix teams in the higher stakes leagues than the ME though. More teams play deeper into the season and hard cases will spend every last dollar as they stare at a 60pt team just because

In review some of the philosophies panned out for me. However there were enough category missteps(need improvement) and player mispicks(which I can live with) to keep this team from lifting.

The collaboration sounds like a plan if you can live with me dropping your sleepers you spent months researching within the 1st 2 weeks ! What's the over under of which week I stop answering your calls ? 5,6 ?

[Hells Satans]

I wouldn't accept my calls at all to be honest. That was a pretty fascinating league. I was so happy with "stealing" Hosmer in the 3rd. Barf. I think the only FAAB pickup made that didn't actually hurt me was Jarrod Parker. Everything else was wasted $$$. The only reason I survived in that league was the back half of my draft.

[Quahogs]

15 2 Josh Willingham LF The Pale King U
16 14 Brandon McCarthy SP The Pale King U
17 2 Zack Cozart SS The Pale King U
18 14 Chase Headley 3B The Pale King U
19 2 Jose Altuve 2B The Pale King U
20 14 Jonathon Niese SP The Pale King U
21 2 Scott Baker SP The Pale King U
22 14 Cody Ross RF The Pale King U
23 2 Carlos Quentin LF The Pale King U
24 14 Tommy Milone SP The Pale King U
25 2 Lance Lynn

Damn. Double damn. This is why you're one of the toughest players in the NFBC. But since you are in EVERYTHING. I can't successfully avoid you.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've been in the Main Event two years in a row with Bob. I never buy into his so-called 'weaknesses' either.
A solid player.

[Hells Satans]

I've been in the Main Event two years in a row with Bob. I never buy into his so-called 'weaknesses' either.
A solid player.

Pretty sure you kicked the snot out of me last year. And, yes, I'm in addict.

[Hells Satans]

15 2 Josh Willingham LF The Pale King U
16 14 Brandon McCarthy SP The Pale King U
17 2 Zack Cozart SS The Pale King U
18 14 Chase Headley 3B The Pale King U
19 2 Jose Altuve 2B The Pale King U
20 14 Jonathon Niese SP The Pale King U
21 2 Scott Baker SP The Pale King U
22 14 Cody Ross RF The Pale King U
23 2 Carlos Quentin LF The Pale King U
24 14 Tommy Milone SP The Pale King U
25 2 Lance Lynn

Damn. Double damn. This is why you're one of the toughest players in the NFBC. But since you are in EVERYTHING. I can't successfully avoid you.

Only someone truly awful at FAAB could fail to win a league where he hits on 80% or 90% of his Rd 15-25 picks.

One more thing about the best players in the NFBC (including you two)....You guys have the uncanny ability of cutting bait on guys before they start to fall apart. As someone who hung on to Raul Ibanez and Rafael Furcal till the end of the year, I can't stress how important a skill that is. Not being married to players allows you to churn guys in FAAB for low $$$. You'll miss on most, but once in a while you'll hit a Brandon Moss or some other guy who goes nuts for 3 weeks.

[OaktownSteve]

One more thing about the best players in the NFBC (including you two)....You guys have the uncanny ability of cutting bait on guys before they start to fall apart. As someone who hung on to Raul Ibanez and Rafael Furcal till the end of the year, I can't stress how important a skill that is. Not being married to players allows you to churn guys in FAAB for low $$$. You'll miss on most, but once in a while you'll hit a Brandon Moss or some other guy who goes nuts for 3 week

First, thanks to you excellent players for letting me eavesdrop on this conversation. I have been thinking about something related to the quote above. Tell me if this makes any sense. For the sake of this example assume we are talking not about players that you drafted but about in season pickups. And let’s also assume that we are not talking about players with obvious upside like Mike Trout, but rather the 1-10 dollar weekly FAAB add.

Let’s say you pick up a guy and he has a lousy week. You have an option to let him go another week or drop him and pick up somebody else. It seems to me that if you pick up another player, in theory that player has roughly the same chance at returning good value as the player you are releasing. That is, these are all replacement value players and you can view them as somewhat interchangable so the chances of them becoming worthy are roughly the same. So the question is, should you hold the player who underperformed the prior week or cut him and pick up the new guy?

My sense is that each week you hold a player who is not performing, the chances that the player will perform diminish ever so slightly. This might be a combination of the chance that the underperforming player loses playing time due to performance, or that they are revealing their real talent level, an injury or some other factor. Whereas if you continue to pick up a new player each week, what happens is, if that player has a decent week of performance, you hold on to him. If he then performs well the next week you hold him again. If he underperforms that week, perhaps you give him another week and then cut bait and try again.

I know this doesn’t make total sense but what I am driving at is that by constantly cycling through players until you get somebody who gives you a solid week of performance and then holding that player as long as they are hot, you somehow increase your chances of landing on that player who becomes a long term asset to your team more than if you continue to hold a player who has underperformed for you in the hope that they will turn it around. And while it may hurt a little when the guy you held for a month and then release gets hot right when you release him, in more cases than not, the opportunity cost of having held that underperformer leaves you less likely to hit on the guy who will stick.

Part of what is driving this thinking is Mr. Jupinka’s comment that there was “more luck than skill.” Again, I’m not talking about Trout or Soriano, who are clearly educated guesses (and while it was lucky to have had Trout do what he did, it doesn’t diminish the fact that it was a smart move and good bidding). You could say it was luck to hit on guys like Aoki, Parker, Plouffe and Parmalee, but I suspect it wasn’t. What I’m thinking is that there might be something to the churn and burn pick up methodology that leads to quality pickups.

[Rog]

For I was in this league and was wondering if all them pickups (excluding trout and soriano) were his first choice or a secondary bid?
on a side note Waiver Pickup by Quahogs LV on Apr 15, 2012 (Trout)
I won Mcdonald last year as my 3rd choice of a starting pitcher for $5 and for the most part was a big part of my team (for about 14 weeks)

[Quahogs]

I know this doesn’t make total sense but what I am driving at is that by constantly cycling through players until you get somebody who gives you a solid week of performance and then holding that player as long as they are hot, you somehow increase your chances of landing on that player who becomes a long term asset to your team more than if you continue to hold a player who has underperformed for you in the hope that they will turn it around. And while it may hurt a little when the guy you held for a month and then release gets hot right when you release him, in more cases than not, the opportunity cost of having held that underperformer leaves you less likely to hit on the guy who will stick.

Oaktown,

simply put I think an accumulation of successful FAAB players is just a by-product of looking for a better player week to week. I haven't really given it much thought until now but I guess there are degrees of FA pickups

1. HOT / Obvious need: Aybar strains his rib-cage and you don't have another SS.
2. Obvious upgrade: S.Drew is dropped and your SS is R.Tejada
3. Spec pick: A guy like Trout or Rizzo or Bauer is dropped. You decide that you've waited long enough for your CIW.
4. Double Starter: It would be nice to add the FA SP who is starting monday vs HOU then home against SEA. You drop a C.Richard since his next home start isn't for another 3 weeks
5. COLD / Just because: There's a FA out there that may have some potential (Plouffe (SS) R.Soriano, He's not playing every day, hasn't been named closer yet but maybe I wait this out with him on MY roster instead of someone elses. Worst case scenario is the guy I drop (Ibanez) goes off and if I want him back that bad I have a 50/50 chance or so of getting him.

Finally what makes it easier to churn and grind is that quite often you don't get your 1st choice. You tried for S.Drew when your SS Aybar went on the DL but you got your 3rd choice B.Ryan. Man u can't get that guy off your roster fast enough so you try for Plouffe in a week who was just dropped. Sometimes you need to be in the right place at the right time.