i thought my $201 bid on burgos would be more than enough

pancho11 · Post by **pancho11** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 4:36 am

somebody bid $286 on him!

i also thought $101 on cotts would be good enough considering hes not even the closer yet

$180!

i really needed the f-ing saves too

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:27 am

I was able to grab cotts for 44 dollars , i guess a good buy.

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:25 pm

But the real difference between Burgos and Cotts is that Burgos is actually a closer and will probably keep the gig if he does well. 90% of the stuff Ozzie says is nonsense, by his own admission. Jenks aint lost that job yet

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:30 pm

Every year we get ripped for drafting so many closers,

as the experts tell us "just get em cheap during the season"

then I sit back with my drafted closers and watch the people taking the advice to not prioritize closers spend 25% of their annual free agent budget for marginal and potential closers before the 6 month marathon even begins

and I smile

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:44 am

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

Every year we get ripped for drafting so many closers,

as the experts tell us "just get em cheap during the season"

then I sit back with my drafted closers and watch the people taking the advice to not prioritize closers spend 25% of their annual free agent budget for marginal and potential closers before the 6 month marathon even begins

and I smile Cherokee: Your point is well taken, but I think your argument misses some key realities. Fact is, anyone who spent $250 on a Todd Jones or Derrick Turnbow last year got a player who put up the value equivalent of a 4th or 5th round pick. The edge of gaining an "extra" 5th rounder to any team is HUGE. Even the Jose Valverdes or Mike Timlins of the world, who can give you 10-15 saves during their 2 month tenure as closer, give you great value for your buck.

Can one find a starting pitcher or an outfielder in free agency that puts up 4th or 5th round numbers? Of course. But it's significantly more difficult. Burgos is replacing Macdougal. The replacement cost of such a move is minimal. Hell, some would argue (with much merit) that the replacement has more value that the original. Where else can you make that claim? At such a degree? Where the replacement has that much value?

ARod, Pujols, Santana...if any of them go down, what are the odds that their replacements put up 5th round value? Slim. And for the few that have a chance (say Young replacing Crawford or Gathright in Tampa), chances are damn good that you won't find the guy in free agency to begin with.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:53 am

Maybe think of it in another way. Would you pay $250 to have an extra 13th or 14th round pick? I think most would say yes and if they did so, would take that opportunity to draft their 2nd Closer (if available). If not available, you just slide that spot up and push everything back one.

The other thing to realize is that those whom forgoe drftaing a second closer, usually have created an even deeper Offense or Pitching, thus consider themselves in less need of spening FAAB money in that area down the road.

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:01 am

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

$ 250 for 1 or 2 saves is more the norm from watching this the past couple of years

You're going under the presumption that these free agent dollars are wisely spent. 90% of the time the opposite is true

But don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled that so many think of it as you do....makes it easier for me to get mine in the draft

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:12 am

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

I will play the BS card.

Timlin, Hermanson, Jones, Valverde, Jenks, all helped last year at that price.

Please list me 45 others bid at 250 that didn't work to support "9 of 10"

TIA.

[ March 29, 2006, 01:13 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:36 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

I will play the BS card.

Timlin, Hermanson, Jones, Valverde, Jenks, all helped last year at that price.

Please list me 45 others bid at 250 that didn't work to support "9 of 10"

TIA. [/QUOTE]Add Tunbow, B Lyon, Dempster in some leagues and a few others.

It is more like 50/50 which is not that much worse odds than the starting closers last year. Sure you may have gotten burned by a Matt Herges or 2 but it certainly is a strategy that works.

Now the key is getting the top bid in for those guys.

I also find it a little interesting that someone publicly criticizes people for doing something that gives him an advantage. Either one heck of a good citizen or someone trying to justify a rather iffy strategy.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:45 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

I will play the BS card.

Timlin, Hermanson, Jones, Valverde, Jenks, all helped last year at that price.

Please list me 45 others bid at 250 that didn't work to support "9 of 10"

TIA. [/QUOTE]Add Tunbow, B Lyon, Dempster in some leagues and a few others.

It is more like 50/50 which is not that much worse odds than the starting closers last year. Sure you may have gotten burned by a Matt Herges or 2 but it certainly is a strategy that works.

Now the key is getting the top bid in for those guys.

I also find it a little interesting that someone publicly criticizes people for doing something that gives him an advantage. Either one heck of a good citizen or someone trying to justify a rather iffy strategy. [/QUOTE]LOL. I had Lyons in my original post, but took him out as I could not remember if he was drafted more than FAAB'ed.

Add Turnbow and Dempster and I need 63 now!!

Herges.. how many others were there? Looks like min of 80/20 positive here.

thinkjohn · Post by **thinkjohn** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:56 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

I will play the BS card.

Timlin, Hermanson, Jones, Valverde, Jenks, all helped last year at that price.

Please list me 45 others bid at 250 that didn't work to support "9 of 10"

TIA. [/QUOTE]UFS, last season we had a team in the top 5 overall for a while with Gagne, Dotel, and Lyon.

Those 3 went down and we chased saves all year, never finding the right guy. Even when we had the right guys they turned out to eventually lose the job like Bruney, Farnsworth, Hawkins, ...

Anyone who says that they can reliably find saves during the season is wrong. You can get lucky, but just because the TURNOVER is high on closers doesn't make it any easier.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:58 am

Last year we dropped big money on T. Jones and big money on Adam Benero. 1 for 2. I'll take that every year. Now I just need to figure out how heavy to go on Burgos.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:11 am

In 2005 I drafted Dotel, Mota, and Lyon (28th Rd). Lost all three in one way or the other, yet still finished something like 8th in Saves. Now if I knew I could finish 8th in Saves and have taken a SP and Batter in the 5th and 7th rounds in place of Dotel and Mota I would have done it in aheart beat.

I didn't wish to test that theory (in some ways again) this year, but I did go half way by only drafting one Closer this year (Valverde in the 7th). An upgrade in Batters and Starting Pitching is/was worth the price.

Chameleon · Post by **Chameleon** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:12 am

Just remember KC should lose about 100 games this year... Food for thought!

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:24 am

Originally posted by thinkjohn:

Anyone who says that they can reliably find saves during the season is wrong. You can get lucky, but just because the TURNOVER is high on closers doesn't make it any easier. There will be some misses for sure, but you can get them if you target the right players.

I FAAB'd Hermanson early for $300 something and Timlin late for less. Bruney and Farnsworth weren't guys I targeted for many saves, so I didn't bid on them. I drafted Hawkins late.

In the end, I'd rather go into the draft with closers in rd 8 and 13, and draft a team where all I need to FAAB is one of the many closers that come about. I have Casey Blake (20hr) and A.Everett (20sb) on my bench for injuries by design. There are many ways to skin this cat, and that's what makes it so fun.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:29 am

Point Noted. However Danys Baez saved 41 for the 95-loss Manta-Rays last year.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:30 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

In 2005 I drafted Dotel, Mota, and Lyon (28th Rd). Lost all three in one way or the other, yet still finished something like 8th in Saves. Now if I knew I could finish 8th in Saves and have taken a SP and Batter in the 5th and 7th rounds in place of Dotel and Mota I would have done it in aheart beat.

I didn't wish to test that theory (in some ways again) this year, but I did go half way by only drafting one Closer this year (Valverde in the 7th). An upgrade in Batters and Starting Pitching is/was worth the price. LOL.. I did the same thing last year.. Ryan 5, Mota 7, Hwakins 23.

This year, Cantu 5, B.Myers 7 and closers in Rd 11, 13. I like this year much better.

Valverde in rd 7, Todd Jones in rd 11. Just how many saves is Valverde going to get over Jones to justify 4 rounds earlier? At the same time, can't really fault you with the runs in the drafts.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:32 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Point Noted. However Danys Baez saved 41 for the 95-loss Manta-Rays last year. And Baez will have 42 saves after Gagne goes down again for LA team that will lose 100

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:36 am

Originally posted by thinkjohn:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

I will play the BS card.

Timlin, Hermanson, Jones, Valverde, Jenks, all helped last year at that price.

Please list me 45 others bid at 250 that didn't work to support "9 of 10"

TIA. [/QUOTE]UFS, last season we had a team in the top 5 overall for a while with Gagne, Dotel, and Lyon.

Those 3 went down and we chased saves all year, never finding the right guy. Even when we had the right guys they turned out to eventually lose the job like Bruney, Farnsworth, Hawkins, ...

Anyone who says that they can reliably find saves during the season is wrong. You can get lucky, but just because the TURNOVER is high on closers doesn't make it any easier. [/QUOTE]If your approach is to just wait until someone is deemed the NEW CLOSER, then I agree, you will need luck....FAAB luck. But if you do your homework and stay abreast of things, you can find your saves with skill. I would consider what I ddi skill and not luck.

Dempster 25 saves $6 FAAB

Farnsworth 15 saves $4 FAAB

Weathers 4 saves $42 FAAB (and I eevn dropped him right before the MLB trade deadline)

Sanchez 7 saves $87 FAAB

I even had Jenks for $3, but only used him for 1 save as I had far too mnay closers near the end of the year and decided to chase Wins instead.

...it can be done without luck.

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:39 am

KC will lose about 100 games, and if they do as they normally do, ( although I'm rooting for Burgos )will change closers about 7 times, some of the new closers won't even get a save, or have an opportunity at one before losing their gig. When Pena was the manager he called his "closer" MacDougal, after he had just sent him to the minors, and tried Affeldt, Burgos, and about 3 other guys within 2 weeks, all of those guys went for big $...as if Pena was just trying to drain NFBC free agent money

They're listing off successes because it's easier to remember when one hits. But note the first week of free agency this year, big money Miceli, Burgos, Cotts...and it will continue week after week, a rumor of a save and a swarm of bids.

I'm happy for you guys, that your strategy works for you. Congrats !

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:41 am

UFS,

You better hope so, b/c Orvella may have already lost his job to Miceli and the season hasn't even started yet.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:41 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by nydownunder:

In 2005 I drafted Dotel, Mota, and Lyon (28th Rd). Lost all three in one way or the other, yet still finished something like 8th in Saves. Now if I knew I could finish 8th in Saves and have taken a SP and Batter in the 5th and 7th rounds in place of Dotel and Mota I would have done it in aheart beat.

I didn't wish to test that theory (in some ways again) this year, but I did go half way by only drafting one Closer this year (Valverde in the 7th). An upgrade in Batters and Starting Pitching is/was worth the price. LOL.. I did the same thing last year.. Ryan 5, Mota 7, Hwakins 23.

This year, Cantu 5, B.Myers 7 and closers in Rd 11, 13. I like this year much better.

Valverde in rd 7, Todd Jones in rd 11. Just how many saves is Valverde going to get over Jones to justify 4 rounds earlier? At the same time, can't really fault you with the runs in the drafts. [/QUOTE]I can justify the Risk/Reward tradeoff between Valverde (7th) and Jones (10th) from the pure fact one can contribute to K, WHIP, and ERA and has a lot more job security. I am also a lot more familiar with Valverde over the years. I actually drafted F. Rodney in the mid 20's as well.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:46 am

...However, I will admit the downside and that is that this strategy uses up a lot of bench space. It didn't cost me down the stretch (not that it would have mattered) but it could sure have made things hurt a lot more.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:49 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by nydownunder:

In 2005 I drafted Dotel, Mota, and Lyon (28th Rd). Lost all three in one way or the other, yet still finished something like 8th in Saves. Now if I knew I could finish 8th in Saves and have taken a SP and Batter in the 5th and 7th rounds in place of Dotel and Mota I would have done it in aheart beat.

I didn't wish to test that theory (in some ways again) this year, but I did go half way by only drafting one Closer this year (Valverde in the 7th). An upgrade in Batters and Starting Pitching is/was worth the price. LOL.. I did the same thing last year.. Ryan 5, Mota 7, Hwakins 23.

This year, Cantu 5, B.Myers 7 and closers in Rd 11, 13. I like this year much better.

Valverde in rd 7, Todd Jones in rd 11. Just how many saves is Valverde going to get over Jones to justify 4 rounds earlier? At the same time, can't really fault you with the runs in the drafts. [/QUOTE]I can justify the Risk/Reward tradeoff between Valverde (7th) and Jones (10th) from the pure fact one can contribute to K, WHIP, and ERA and has a lot more job security. I am also a lot more familiar with Valverde over the years. I actually drafted F. Rodney in the mid 20's as well. [/QUOTE]How much did they pay Jones to be closer for 2 years?

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:51 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

UFS,

You better hope so, b/c Orvella may have already lost his job to Miceli and the season hasn't even started yet.

not confirmed yet, but a much easier blow than wasting #7 pick on Mota last year.