i thought my $201 bid on burgos would be more than enough

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:52 am

UFS (RE: Jones Contract)

You should know winning is more important than money for teams. Besides, it's not so much Jones lack of job security as it is Valverde's. Other than there recent acquisition of Cruz, now one scares me on ARI roster in taking over the Closing role unless he is injured...which there is some risk of happening.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:00 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

UFS (RE: Jones Contract)

You should know winning is more important than money for teams. Besides, it's not so much Jones lack of job security as it is Valverde's. Other than there recent acquisition of Cruz, now one scares me on ARI roster in taking over the Closing role unless he is injured...which there is some risk of happening. Sorry, but they don't pay guys that money for 2 years not to close. 2 yrs, 11 mil is not what they pay set up guys. There is nothing to indicate this spring that he's not the guy. He could easily have just as many saves as anyone taken in Round 4-7.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:03 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

UFS,

You better hope so, b/c Orvella may have already lost his job to Miceli and the season hasn't even started yet.

From today:

C Orvella 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

The sphincter loosens up a bit...

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:13 am

Or he could post numbers like he did in 2003, the last time he was in the AL.

3 wins, 5 losses, 0 saves, 7.08 era, 1.81 whip

Hopefully with that 11 million he was able to bring to Detroit that fountain of youth he found in Florida last year.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:22 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by nydownunder:

UFS (RE: Jones Contract)

You should know winning is more important than money for teams. Besides, it's not so much Jones lack of job security as it is Valverde's. Other than there recent acquisition of Cruz, now one scares me on ARI roster in taking over the Closing role unless he is injured...which there is some risk of happening. Sorry, but they don't pay guys that money for 2 years not to close. 2 yrs, 11 mil is not what they pay set up guys. There is nothing to indicate this spring that he's not the guy. He could easily have just as many saves as anyone taken in Round 4-7. [/QUOTE]When did I say he's not the guy? I said he doesn' contribute to the peripherals as much and doesn't have the same level of job security. Why else would he on average go 2-3 rounds later? I don't question the fact that any closer could have more saves than any other but some do have a more likley chance than others, for various reasons, to reach projections.

Let's just call it a Closer Risk Premium that explains why some closers go earlier than others!

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:23 am

Joe,

Perhaps you could make a comeback with TB. Didn't you and Miceli graduate from HS together.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:29 am

Ever since Kevin Costner did it, I have been thinking about. I have a few years on Miceli, but I do so Todd Jones at the annual Houston Astros Alumni Bingo Tournament.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:33 am

UFS,

I just checked my projections and I actually had Jones getting the same number of Saves as Valverde and projected values being 3.0 and 2.7 respectively (Jones the latter).

So for me it's the Risk Premium. Call it whatever you want. All I know is that I will not kick myself if Valverde falters compared to Jones. If I drafted Jones and he did falter I would kick myself.

In Australian terms, Jones is 'Mutton Dressed as Lamb'.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:59 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

UFS,

I just checked my projections and I actually had Jones getting the same number of Saves as Valverde and projected values being 3.0 and 2.7 respectively (Jones the latter).

So for me it's the Risk Premium. Call it whatever you want. All I know is that I will not kick myself if Valverde falters compared to Jones. If I drafted Jones and he did falter I would kick myself.

In Australian terms, Jones is 'Mutton Dressed as Lamb'. LOL... Is that worth 4 rounds?

Me - B.Myers 7 - T.Jones 11

You - Valverde 7 - 11 ???

I had Valverde for 2 more saves than T.Jones.

T.Jones bb/IP improved alot last year. I'll go with whatever change he made last year to accomplish this over whatever he did in 2003. I'm sure that change is why he rec'd 11 for 2. He was so good last year, they never gave Mota another chance.

I was all set to take a closer like C.Cordero in Rd 8, but they went so fast, I opted for plan B and took them 11 and 13. Don't be a sheep when you can almost get the same value later.

Orvella pitched well his first few outings, then had a mechanical issue I hope is cleared up. He's their guy. He did well in 50IP last year and his ML numbers suggest his BB's will go down this year. 17bb, 160k in 111 ML IP with a 1.22 ERA.

In LABR, I hit E.Guardado, Hawkins the first years they closed, and last year, I hit BJ Ryan here, along with others in between those years. I'll take #2 CL in round 13 and B.Colon in Rd 10 any draft.

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:04 am

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

But you're leaving off the fact that 9 out of 10 of those guys DON'T PAN OUT

$ 250 for 1 or 2 saves is more the norm from watching this the past couple of years

You're going under the presumption that these free agent dollars are wisely spent. 90% of the time the opposite is true

But don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled that so many think of it as you do....makes it easier for me to get mine in the draft Cherokee: I'm positivemly tickled that you're so confident with your strategy. Way to go!

However, answer this: Let's say you drafted a couple of closers "early". Say in the 4th round and in the 6th round. You got Rivera and Turnbow. While you seem able to realize the benefits of this (70+ saves), you don't seem quite so able to figure out the drawbacks (you could have drafted Jorge Cantu and Pat Burrell). But no biggie you say. You can survive with Luis Castillo at the 2B spot and Kevin Mench as your outfielder. But 3 weeks into the season, Castillo isn't doing squat and you realize you need power at the 2B spot. What do you do? You go into Free agency and plop down $200 of your hard earned FAAB dollars on Todd Walker.

The rest of us, who spent later picks on closers, however, are scrambling? Why? Cause it's mid may and Mike Gonzalez has a 7.56 ERA. What do I do? I throw down $300 of my FAAB on the new closer in Pittsburgh.

So the question becomes, who will be more worth your FAAB $? Todd Walker, or the new Pitt closer? You're saving all that FAAB money for something worthwhile right!

Good luck to you.

joeyt300 · Post by **joeyt300** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:47 am

Good post Rey, Todd Walker isn't all thats available on the waiver wire though, easy to make your strategy work with that example. Last year we picked up Felipe Lopez, Johnny Peralta and Geoff Jenkins off waivers and just missed Aron Boones second half too...A surprise closer gets one category usually, Turnbows K's were a nice surprise.

Oh and we got Felipe Lopez for $55 and Perralta for $40, not the $250 you have to spend on a clsoer

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:57 am

UFS,

I took Vazquez as my third SP in the 11th. And you can't just look at pick 7 and 11 in isolation. I had Renteria slated as #8 and I was not going to see what was left in the RP dept in round 9. the RP's in my league went off the board even earlier than other leagues. These guys were going off 3-4 rounds earlier than expected, where most leagues experienced 2-3 rounds. I like what I did with 7-11...but then F*CKED it all up with Chris Young in the 12th. Reason being, I didn't want Escobar because I already had an Angel (Lackey) from the 9th Rd, and Gathright, JD Drew, Granderson, and M.Bradley all went off the board. SP was the value there. Would I have taken Jones in the 12th? Quite possibly, but I am not going to take two 2nd or 3rd tier closers in the first 11 rounds. Maybe 2 2nd tiers, but that's about it. This year, I had no desire to grab a 1st tierer. My offense and starting pitching is extreemly solid from a pre-seeason perspective. Besides my Young/Escobar meltdown, I did things right....but time will tell.

[ March 29, 2006, 05:08 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:09 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

UFS,

I took Vazquez as my third SP in the 11th. Interesting... He was on my list there, but I had to take a closer.

Can't win the 100K punting any cats.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:20 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by nydownunder:

UFS,

I took Vazquez as my third SP in the 11th. Interesting... He was on my list there, but I had to take a closer.

Can't win the 100K punting any cats. [/QUOTE]I disagree, there are a couple of guys that have finished in the top 20 (both years) whom fully punt or partially punt Saves. They obviously took home $5k in their leagues.

Think about it, if someone said to you that you could almost be guarnateed $5k and have a 1/20 chance of $100k versus a 20% chance of $5k and a 2.5% chance at $100k, which would you take? (Keep in mind, the latter chances are probably generous.)

I considered it this year, but decided to play things by ear with the likeliness that I would definitely take one.

[ March 29, 2006, 05:21 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:29 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by nydownunder:

UFS,

I took Vazquez as my third SP in the 11th. Interesting... He was on my list there, but I had to take a closer.

Can't win the 100K punting any cats. [/QUOTE]I disagree, there are a couple of guys that have finished in the top 20 (both years) whom fully punt or partially punt Saves. They obviously took home $5k in their leagues.

Think about it, if someone said to you that you could almost be guarnateed $5k and have a 1/20 chance of $100k versus a 20% chance of $5k and a 2.5% chance at $100k, which would you take? (Keep in mind, the latter chances are probably generous.)

I considered it this year, but decided to play things by ear with the likeliness that I would definitely take one. [/QUOTE]All I said was you can't win the 100K.

I won 2 leagues last year punting saves.

The guy that won 100K last year finished in the top 75 of every cat and averaged 258.6 per cat out of 300.

I set my targets to hit 270 in each cat but saves, where I targeted 70 saves and expect to faab the last 30. I wound up way ahead in BA, and 100k's short, but hit the rest just about on the nose. All that gets me is a chance to get in the top 30. Luck, with injuries and a "Jenkins 2nd half" like are needed to win.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:35 am

Sorry, let me reclarify my position. I would probably agree that you can't punt Saves altogether and win the $100k. However, I do think if you are pretty assured of winning your league, so it still probably worth the punt. In addition, I do think you could win the whole thing by punting saves in the draft alone (ie still go after them on the FAAB).

Bandit · Post by **Bandit** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:16 pm

Once its decided to punt saves don't you pretty much need to stick with it to rack up W's and K's?

That's what I saw with the league winners who punted. Had they reversed course and let a couple of those starting pitcher slots be occupied by closers (picked up off the wire) it would not have panned out. Even with decent save production.

Just looking at those results.

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:00 pm

Originally posted by joeyt300:

Good post Rey, Todd Walker isn't all thats available on the waiver wire though, easy to make your strategy work with that example. Last year we picked up Felipe Lopez, Johnny Peralta and Geoff Jenkins off waivers and just missed Aron Boones second half too...A surprise closer gets one category usually, Turnbows K's were a nice surprise.

Oh and we got Felipe Lopez for $55 and Perralta for $40, not the $250 you have to spend on a clsoer Joey: Oh I know, I'm just trying to make the point for those of us who didn't draft closers early. Shoot, I picked up Ryan Howard for a buck last year. This year, there are gonna be more Peralta's and Howards and Lopez's. But you see, for me at least, it's even more reason to dedicate yous FAAB $ on closers. Alot of your position player FAAB pickups are like mine...speculative. You do you research, know about certain players, and make judgements on them based on minor league history, performance and playing time granted. If you do your homework, you can get these guys cheap.

But with closers, its not really like that. Mariano Rivera goes down tomorrow and all of a sudden, Farnsworth is a top 10 closer. That's the equivalent of having David Ortiz go down, and have Gabe Kapler step right in and be expected to hit 30 bombs with 110 ribbies.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:04 am

Originally posted by Bandit:

Once its decided to punt saves don't you pretty much need to stick with it to rack up W's and K's?

That's what I saw with the league winners who punted. Had they reversed course and let a couple of those starting pitcher slots be occupied by closers (picked up off the wire) it would not have panned out. Even with decent save production.

Just looking at those results. Not necessarily, at some stage your marginal gains in K's and W's become minute. Although your initial drive to gain points with Saves would have equivalent (minute) gains, you may put yourself in a position to make the push on Saves (say towards the 50 percentile) where each additional Save becomes quite valuable. Especially relative to what gains you would maintain if you kept your drive on K's and W's.

A lot of variables come in play.