Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:36 am

I promised an analysis of our Kentucky Derby Style format this year and we're in the early stages of getting that done. I hope to have final figures in the next week or so, but the preliminary data is pretty interesting. Here it comes:

1) When we did the random draft before, the average pick would be 8. So far, after tabulating half of the leagues, the average owner recieved choice 4.82 on his list!

2) Also, 29 of 180 so far got their first choice!

3) And... only ONE of 180 got his last choice!

4) There was also one league where all but one team recieved their top six choices, and 11 of those 15 were Top 4!

Again, this is a sample of just 180 of our 360 main event and Ultimate Draft League choices, but it's pretty revealing. I think the data is very similar for the satellite league choices as well, although I didn't keep all of that information.

So once again, I'm looking for feedback from the participants. Did the KDS add a little excitement to your off-season? Did you like the way we set it up or was it a bit confusing? Do you feel the system worked for you, allowing you to get a little better draft spot than you had in years past? Is it something we should continue for 2007?

I must admit that I was surprised by the KDS selections of the owners, but I can certainly understand why 7, 8 would be the top two choices of some owners and why 15 would be the third choice of many owners. It also proved to me that allowing you guys/gals some say in your draft spots was the right move to make. It's possible that there's a better solution to this than KDS, but for now I feel pleased about the results.

But I need feedback either way on that. Thanks everyone and best of luck the rest of the way.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:57 am

i'll have good and bad feedback a little later tonight

Kevin D · Post by **Kevin D** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 11:29 am

KDS is Randoness in disguise. To make it truley meaningfull Draft positions should be auctioned using FAAB$$$$.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 11:40 am

Worked for me. Number one pick. Was my first pick and I got it. I didn't have to spend any FAAB for it either.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:02 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Worked for me. Number one pick. Was my first pick and I got it. I didn't have to spend any FAAB for it either.

But you blew it by taking Pujols!

Well, perhaps that pick can be justified. However, would you like to take a crack at defending Johnny Damon as your 2nd round pick? You took him 30th overall -- ahead of Sizemore, Berkman, Sheffield, Carlos Lee, and many many others.

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:15 pm

I prefer it a lot to just drawing numbers for draft position.

cfargis · Post by **cfargis** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:25 pm

I liked the KDS system a lot. I much prefer it to a FAAB system and it's better than random selection.

-C

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:35 pm

Nice to know we are the only team that got our last choice, maybe KDS is not so bad, our luck not so good.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:38 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Worked for me. Number one pick. Was my first pick and I got it. I didn't have to spend any FAAB for it either.

But you blew it by taking Pujols!

Well, perhaps that pick can be justified. However, would you like to take a crack at defending Johnny Damon as your 2nd round pick? You took him 30th overall -- ahead of Sizemore, Berkman, Sheffield, Carlos Lee, and many many others. [/QUOTE]blew it by taking Pujols??? What!! I would of done the same thing. How can that be justified as a bad pick??

[ March 28, 2006, 06:38 PM: Message edited by: Red Sox Nation ]

Online Yeti · Post by **Online Yeti** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:02 pm

I am a big fan of the KDS format. If you were keen enough to realize that folks were likely to select certain slots over others, you had a really solid chance of getting your first couple of choices by prioritizing differently.

Last year, I drew the 15th pick in my first time in the NFBC ("Yeti Baseball" dismal season), and ended up taking two players I wasn't overly thrilled with (Schmidt and Rolen) as my top two selections, which I recognized to be a huge drop-off from the other first round talent and not much better (pre-season) than the other second rounders. Some people may have wanted that draft spot but not me, particularly in my first experience with this competition. Suffice it to say that my bookend picks the rest of the way were not much better than my first two rounds wound up (insert Brett Boone crying on TV at midseason here). This year teamed up with my buddy Scans and that coupled with a reasonable draft position (#10 thankfully we were able to land D Wright there) and I had a much better time at the draft this year. I vote for keeping the KDS format, so at least a newbie like me gets a say in what your preferences are, rather than feeling like you blew $1250 after your top two picks, when someone else may have actually wanted that draft spot for their own strategic purposes.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:27 pm

Greg,

KDS is a HUGE improvement over random selection. It also gives us something to think about for a couple of weeks and makes for some good debate.

Still, I prefer bidding with FAAB, which is unquestionably the most "fair" method in that everyone has equal opportunity to their preferred slot.

With KDS, luck is still a part of the equation and if bidding is marketable I see no reason not to push the innovation one step further next year.

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:30 pm

Originally posted by viper:

I prefer it a lot to just drawing numbers for draft position. Greg, let the numbers speak for themselves....If a majority of the teams got either their first second, third, or fourth pick, then the KDS has to be deemed a success....One of these owners (who got their 1st-4th) cannot complain about a system that worked to their (supposed)advantage...if ~65% of the teams got one of their top 4 choices, then the KDS passes!.The very few teams who DID receive their 13th,14th or 15th slot, have to know they were in the small minority and chance, was simply not on their side (this same team could have their first choice next year, just as chance swings back on their side)....You cant make ALL the People happy ALL the time...

Greg,

The Program for this evening is nothing New, You've seen this entertainment

through and through,

The voices of those who obtained seemingly poor draft positions, will be heard loud and far on these message boards, but should we care to listen????

--Greg, Dont ask us the question , let the numbers do the talking.......

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:34 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

But you blew it by taking Pujols!

Well, perhaps that pick can be justified. However, would you like to take a crack at defending Johnny Damon as your 2nd round pick? You took him 30th overall -- ahead of Sizemore, Berkman, Sheffield, Carlos Lee, and many many others. Hey Walla, I agree with you on Pujols, I would've done the same. Its not like A-Rod is a SS anymore, and I'd bet he won't hit anywhere near Pujols likely 330+ avg.

Damon in the 2nd? Thats another story.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:49 pm

I'm as big a fan of Pujols as anyone. However, to all those here who are down on Miguel Cabrera, you should be down on Pujols for exactly the same reasons.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:05 pm

Didnt 22 of the 1st 24 picks take AROD, enough said. A lot of people say , sure i would have taken puljos , but give them the 1st pick and see's what happens.Third base is a tougher position to fill, not first base , the biggest reason , and the extra homers and steals. I would bet anyone PULJOS doesnt steal 16 bases again, his previous high was 5. Like the KING OF QUEENS said , who will hit behind PULJOS, ROLEN who is coming off his injury season, or edmonds coming off his worst season. AROD in that yankee lineup is scary, now with damon he could drive in 150 rbi's. WE will see, last year they were close , not this year.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:10 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Didnt 22 of the 1st 24 picks take AROD, enough said. 21 out of 24--and 2 of 2 by you!

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:36 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Didnt 22 of the 1st 24 picks take AROD, enough said. A lot of people say , sure i would have taken puljos , but give them the 1st pick and see's what happens.Third base is a tougher position to fill, not first base , the biggest reason , and the extra homers and steals. I would bet anyone PULJOS doesnt steal 16 bases again, his previous high was 5. Like the KING OF QUEENS said , who will hit behind PULJOS, ROLEN who is coming off his injury season, or edmonds coming off his worst season. AROD in that yankee lineup is scary, now with damon he could drive in 150 rbi's. WE will see, last year they were close , not this year. Eddie you made some valid points:

I know Pujols has a weaker lineup but this guy is incredible. We are talking about a player who can only be compared to Teddy Ballgame when you look at his first 5 years in baseball. Look at the past two years comparing Arod to Pujols. I use two years because I don't want to compare Arod as a Ranger. Pujols beats Arod in 4 out of 5 categories. I realize the speed isn't close in comparisons. Pujols also dominates the .BA category. And the 3B factor is big too but I would still take Albert #1. I'm confident in Pujols that no matter who hits near him he will hit .330 120 runs 40hrs 120 rbis 8sbs.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:25 pm

Dude...have you seen A-rod in the last year and a half...he's fat!

Chubby cheeks, barrel chest/body...he's nothing like when he was thin and young, and hungry...who's living in the past?

He's in worse shape than Pujols...and Pujols is a Pro's Pro...hungry, honorable, relentless.

Pujols is younger, and may increase his SB total...who knows...if he and his manager decide it's worth it.

Pujols carried a team WITHOUT superstar allstar Rolen...to say that Rolen returns, and Pujols gets less stats is silly.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:56 pm

5 years younger...much better chance at improving on past performance...

Pujols beats A-Rod BAD in Average...beats him in Runs, HR and RBI. (last 3 years) the only category Rod-munch has him beat in is a measly 5 SB last year...and Pujols was only caught twice...A-Rod was caught 6 times.

Pujols Slugs better, his OPS is better...no contest.

~Lance

[ March 28, 2006, 11:58 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:08 pm

As for position scarcity...

3B...

A-Rod (stud)

Mi. Cabrera (new addition stud)

D. Wright (Young stud)

C. Figgins (fluid stud)

A. Ramirez (Blossoming stud)

M. Ensburg (solid)

J. Cantu (out of the blue star)

Chipper Jones (Rebounding star)

Eric Chavez (Solid)

Troy Glaus (Solid)

Hank Blaylock (I'll take him)

Scott Rolen (Returning star!)

Nomar, Beltre, etc...3B is not a thin position in 2006...

nuff said.

~Lance (Just having fun, but Pujols is legit)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:09 am

The average owner received choice 4.82 is good for the average owner. It means more people are happy with the draft slot. That alone is a nice feature.

only ONE of 180 got his last choice! – this is the main hang-up with KDS. One person not only got their last preference, but they are also competing against owners who got better preferences. It just isn’t fair to the one person IMO.

Did KDS add excitement – yes

Did I like the set-up – I thought it was a confusing STATS interface. Having it function like FAAB would be a better way

Did the System work for me – yes, but not for the one bloke (only ONE of 180 got his last choice)

Continue for 2007? - BBDS

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:09 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Greg,

KDS is a HUGE improvement over random selection. It also gives us something to think about for a couple of weeks and makes for some good debate.

Still, I prefer bidding with FAAB, which is unquestionably the most "fair" method in that everyone has equal opportunity to their preferred slot.

With KDS, luck is still a part of the equation and if bidding is marketable I see no reason not to push the innovation one step further next year. As I've said many times, you must walk before you run. FAAB and KDS were new to the industry and they take time before they are fully understood and accepted. I agree that the numbers point out that KDS worked better than random draft selections and thus I feel very confident in saying that KDS will return to the NFBC in 2007. It's not perfect, but it seemed to work well.

BBDS has its merits and one day it may find its place in some NFBC events. Maybe we'll create a BBDS mid-season league this season and create some satellite leagues in 2007 that use BBDS. Start slowly and show the pros of the cons of the system before expanding too quickly with this. But as you can tell, I'm not afraid of change if it helps the overall contest.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:14 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

The average owner received choice 4.82 is good for the average owner. It means more people are happy with the draft slot. That alone is a nice feature.

only ONE of 180 got his last choice! – this is the main hang-up with KDS. One person not only got their last preference, but they are also competing against owners who got better preferences. It just isn’t fair to the one person IMO.

Did KDS add excitement – yes

Did I like the set-up – I thought it was a confusing STATS interface. Having it function like FAAB would be a better way

Did the System work for me – yes, but not for the one bloke (only ONE of 180 got his last choice)

Continue for 2007? - BBDS In the previous NFBC format, 12 of those owners would have received their least favorite spot. So improving from 12 to one (and likely more) must be seen as a slight improvement, even by you GG.

I've asked STATS to create just one column for KDS going forward. There was no need for two columns. Just put your preferences in order (1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 3, etc.) and we'll take it from there. I hope to have this new setup for the NFFC in the next month as we're finalizing the registration page with STATS right now.

You better have KJ Duke promote BBDS, GG. You're too big of a lightening rod for people to back you on that new format.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:32 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

The average owner received choice 4.82 is good for the average owner. It means more people are happy with the draft slot. That alone is a nice feature.

only ONE of 180 got his last choice! – this is the main hang-up with KDS. One person not only got their last preference, but they are also competing against owners who got better preferences. It just isn’t fair to the one person IMO.

Did KDS add excitement – yes

Did I like the set-up – I thought it was a confusing STATS interface. Having it function like FAAB would be a better way

Did the System work for me – yes, but not for the one bloke (only ONE of 180 got his last choice)

Continue for 2007? - BBDS I agree with Gordon completely- first I applaud the initiative to do Kentucky Derby it is certainly an improvement over the old style. Why not improve even more and implement BBDS in 2007. The only thing that is left up to chance in this format is where your name is drawn out of the hat? Some may argue it has little effect- I would argue differently. With that point if you think it has little effect bid nothing and take advantage of my weakness being down some money in free agency.

Greg may have answered this on his follow up- but what is the down side. Lets at least engage in a healthy debate about this.

The only downside I see is- it may give Greg and the gang a little less flexibility with when to cut off sales. Not even sure about that one. If so is there a way around that where it still makes sense from a business perspective to do it?

flattops · Post by **flattops** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 5:02 am

The beauty of the KDS IMHO is the fact that you could have one of your 1st 3 choices REGARDLESS of WHEN your name is drawn out from the hat.