Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

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Greg Ambrosius
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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:52 am

Okay, we're getting closer to our final analysis on KDS. We should have the final figures for all 330 main event teams very soon.



But here's a few more tidbits after analyzing those 22 leagues:



1) Only THREE owners wound up with their 15th choice. Sorry Chest, you were not the "one" last time :D . We hadn't done Tampa yet!



2) They all wound up with pick #15, which is odd, because in the other 19 leagues, #15 had an average of 3.79!!! 3.79 would tie for 5th highest behind #1, 2, 3 and 4!



3) Those that picked #15th:

1st choice: 3 times

2nd choice: once

3rd choice: 5 times

4th choice: 7 times

5th choice: once

6th choice: once

13th choice: once

15th choice: 3 times



Interesting data, don't you think?
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JohnZ
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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by JohnZ » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:17 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:



15th choice: 3 times



Interesting data, don't you think? Not only bad luck with the random #15, but extra bad luck being in leagues where some league other owner didn't list #15 as high as 18 of the other 22 leagues did.



What are the odds of that? ;)



Still beats 22 owners getting their last choice.



I'm happy with my third choice ;)



[ March 29, 2006, 05:19 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by Chest Rockwell » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:24 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:



15th choice: 3 times



Interesting data, don't you think? Not only bad luck with the random #15, but extra bad luck being in leagues where some league other owner didn't list #15 as high as 18 of the other 22 leagues did.



What are the odds of that? ;)



Still beats 22 owners getting their last choice.



I'm happy with my third choice ;)






[/QUOTE]Not so fast how can you assume 22 owners would get their last choice?



One more time what is the downsides to Blind Bidding? Anyone?

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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by JohnZ » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:43 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:





Not so fast how can you assume 22 owners would get their last choice?



One more time what is the downsides to Blind Bidding? Anyone? [/quote]


Last year, 20 owners got the last random pick. That would be 22 this year. KDS changed it to 3.



That's the angle I was coming from...



the only draw back to BBS is losing FAAB. I'm looking forward to seeing what the percentages are in terms of how many owners got their 1st? Top 2? Top3? Top4? choices.



If the % of getting your Top 4 choice is high (#15 pick was 73%), then I think I could argue that KDS would be better because no faab is lost AND BBS might not yield that same 73% as KDS. My gut says that only 1-2-3-4-7-8-15 and will yield high %'s on KDS, so I'm not assuming 73% accross the board.

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Post by Chest Rockwell » Wed Mar 29, 2006 12:05 pm

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:





Not so fast how can you assume 22 owners would get their last choice?



One more time what is the downsides to Blind Bidding? Anyone? [/QUOTE]Last year, 20 owners got the last random pick. That would be 22 this year. KDS changed it to 3.



That's the angle I was coming from...



the only draw back to BBS is losing FAAB. I'm looking forward to seeing what the percentages are in terms of how many owners got their 1st? Top 2? Top3? Top4? choices.



If the % of getting your Top 4 choice is high (#15 pick was 73%), then I think I could argue that KDS would be better because no faab is lost AND BBS might not yield that same 73% as KDS. My gut says that only 1-2-3-4-7-8-15 and will yield high %'s on KDS, so I'm not assuming 73% accross the board.
[/quote]


2 things- those 22 guys would not have not neccesarily gotten their last pick because some preferred 15 so that is faulty logic. Your other point is true but this is s game of skill 75% is not good enough IF you have an opportunity to make it a completely even playing field.

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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by Gordon Gekko » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:16 pm

Originally posted by UFS:

If the % of getting your Top 4 choice is high (#15 pick was 73%), then I think I could argue that KDS would be better because no faab is lost AND BBS might not yield that same 73% as KDS. you could argue it, but you'd be wrong. KDS is unfair to some owners. BBDS is fair to everyone.

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Post by sportsbettingman » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:51 pm

...so you're saying that a 15 team serpentine draft when random is totaly unfair?



Is it fair at 10 teams? ...6 teams? ...2 teams?...is is subject to opinion? ...are any players locks to play out the season uninjured?



~Lance
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Post by sportsbettingman » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:02 pm

We are tampering with a tradition of fantasy sports...the luck of the draw.



That random shot at getting this year "flavor of the month" selection.



Some years the top 6 players are a wash...this year happened to be the top 2...but saying Vlad or Tex or "insert player here" is a deep cliff dive in talent potential from the others is simply opinion.



I like random...I like KDS...but to have to waste a single dollar of the years bidding suppy to gaurantee a draft slot seems overkill.



I admit if you bid 1000 of your 1000 for pick #1...I'd be happy...knowing you were done for the year...and it is interesting where people would draw the line in how much to bid for a top few selection...but in the big picture...it seems to give "Joe Blow" a sure shot at having the top pick every year by bidding crazily, and that doesn't seem right.



~Lance
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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by Chest Rockwell » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:11 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

We are tampering with a tradition of fantasy sports...the luck of the draw.



That random shot at getting this year "flavor of the month" selection.



Some years the top 6 players are a wash...this year happened to be the top 2...but saying Vlad or Tex or "insert player here" is a deep cliff dive in talent potential from the others is simply opinion.



I like random...I like KDS...but to have to waste a single dollar of the years bidding suppy to gaurantee a draft slot seems overkill.



I admit if you bid 1000 of your 1000 for pick #1...I'd be happy...knowing you were done for the year...and it is interesting where people would draw the line in how much to bid for a top few selection...but in the big picture...it seems to give "Joe Blow" a sure shot at having the top pick every year by bidding crazily, and that doesn't seem right.



~Lance So you support it, you would not bid a dime would still get a random slot and Gordo and I would be down some money. A good thing for you then?

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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by Spyhunter » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:16 pm

Greg,

Thanks for atleast doing KDS this year. While it certainly not as good as bidding, it is better than nothing. This contest is supposed to be the NATIONAL FANTASY CHAMPIONSHIP. If you feel comfortable enought to put down $1250, I don't understand why you aren't trusted to bid with FAAB on your draft position.



Anyway, KDS was good, Bidding will be GREAT



Just my 2 cents



Spy

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Post by Walla Walla » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:35 pm

Those who wonder how I could pass up Arod don't understand. I got Damon why would I need any other Yankee????

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Post by sportsbettingman » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:47 pm

QUOTE]So you support it, you would not bid a dime would still get a random slot and Gordo and I would be down some money. A good thing for you then? [/QB][/quote]


The problem is two-fold...



1) Why should I have to bid for pick one when it was a lucky draw before? Why must I be at a disadvantage now...when the last 30 years of fantasy sports...the first pick got it without sacrificing? It's another case of the "I deserve everything" attitude. ...I deserve a shot at the number one pick...I can't win from the number 8 slot.



2) You are adding control to a part of the game that should not be allowed control...random is fair...is it not? If the game is unfair...fix the game. Make it a 7 team league...or whatever you think "This" years flavor. You are implying that there is enough of an advantage to having "such and such" pick...that it's worth risking your season on to get it via FA bidding money. If that is the case...fix the problem...AUCTION DRAFT!!!



...another point...I think KDS drafting may even have its drawbacks...the actual pick 14 or 15 may have been happy with 14 or 15...and now they get stuck with 9 or 11 for example...they get the worst possible draft slots for this years "flavor"...instead of just getting 14 or 15 and dealing with it.



~Lance



[ March 29, 2006, 08:52 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by KJ Duke » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:12 pm

I would presume that almost everyone will prefer KDS to random selection because they're more likely to get a spot they want, less likely to get one they don't. The feedback seems to support this, thus I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb by predicting that Greg will NEVER go backwards (back to random), so any further comparison of either KDS or BBDS to random are irrelevant - the debate should only be KDS vs BBDS. After two seasons of discussion in both baseball and football, I think I can argue both sides.



In favor of KDS

KDS is established and successful, after this year, and simple. If someone makes a mistake the consequences are minimal. With BBDS, if someone were confused and bid their entire budget on a slot position they'd be unable to pickup a single free agent. In such a case, they'd have virtually no chance of competing during the season. This would make for a difficult controversy and one very unhappy customer who threw away $1250 on a mistake before the season began.



In favor of BBDS

KDS does not address the fairness/luck issue, which BBDS does. Theoretically, 14 players in the league could get their first choice using KDS, and one player could get their last choice. Is that fair? No, in the same way that random selection smiles on some and frowns on others, KDS does the same.



BBDS is more true to the spirit of the competition --- winners and losers should be determined by (a) what happens on the baseball field, and (b) your strategies, management and decision-making as an owner.



Sure, luck is involved in many aspects of fantasy baseball, from freak injuries to who happens to be sitting to your left or right during the draft, but there is no way to control for these things. The luck of the draw, which is a factor in KDS, can and should be eliminated. We're not playing the lotto here, we're in competition.



And on this topic, let me head off one argument that will inevitably be made here (before I puke from hearing it for the 50th time). It goes like this -- you can't control injuries, luck is a part of the game, you can't change it and shouldn't attempt to. Here is the fallacy in that argument ... in any competition, lets take the real game of baseball as an example, yes, luck is inevitably part of the game. If your star player slips in the dugout and breaks his wrist because a fan tossed beer on the steps, guess what? Those are the breaks. But does that mean that when the player steps up to the plate we draw a piece of paper out of the hat to see if he starts with a 3-0 count or an 0-2 count? No, we don't do that, because that is an element of luck that is unneccesary, avoidable, and has nothing to do with the competition. Similarly, randomly drawing for slots or preference in choice of slots is also unneccesary, has nothing to do with skill, and can and should be avoided.

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Post by King of Queens » Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:55 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

you could argue it, but you'd be wrong.Chest, did you catch this? LMAO!!

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Post by Bandit » Wed Mar 29, 2006 4:07 pm

We are tampering with a tradition of fantasy sports...the luck of the draw. I believe fantasy sports was started in the auction content, certainly not the luck of the draw. So I don't believe "tradition" is an argument.



Now if we were proposing arm wrestling for draft spots ......that might be tampering with tradition.

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Post by sportsbettingman » Wed Mar 29, 2006 6:10 pm

I'd like to see where auction style drafting was the first ever draft in fantasy sports.



It was not.





My problem is with the wimpy whiners all over that cry due to not having the perfect draft slot for any given year.



These same whiners seem to feel they cannot compete unless they start this serpentine draft at exactly the right spot...or else they are doomed to fail.



Thus...they fight and reason their side to all of us...and hope we take the bait.



I see it as bullcrap. If you can't win from the 9 hole or the 15th hole...you can't win this year...sack up and play next year.



If you think the top 3 or so spots are sooooooo important...rally to change the game itself.



We can play 3,000.00 entry 7-team leagues...or some sort of other setup.



Who the hell dreamed up it HAS to be a 12 or 15 team league?



We can decide via entry to play...if you want first pick...play 15 years...you'll have a good chance at getting 1st pick one of the times.



Damn cry babies.



~Lance



[ March 30, 2006, 12:13 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
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Post by sportsbettingman » Wed Mar 29, 2006 6:29 pm

Yo GG, Chest...



Would you define FAIR as freaking GUESSING what another owner is willing to wager on selecting where he wants to draft? ...why don't we all dive into Auction drafting?



What if you...not them...guessed one dollar short each time...and you get the shaft on each guess...??? ...is that fair?



Sounds about as lucky as random selections to me.



(Unless you and your friends are soooo smart...thus making this whole thing less fair...???)



~Lance



[ March 30, 2006, 12:30 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
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Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Post by GoldenEagle » Wed Mar 29, 2006 6:38 pm

RE: BBDS supposedly an improvement vs. KDS. You already have the random draw of which league you're put in, whether BBDS or KDS, right? That randomness is "necessary" to "keep it fair", right? So why is randomness in draft positions now suddenly "evil" or "unfair to some owners"? See the hypocrisy? But to argue that BBDS is superior to KDS due to removal of the "unfairness or randomness" just doesn't hold up when you factor in that which league you're in is already determined randomly! Certainly to be able to bid on which league you're in would be "not fair", hence we INSIST on random league placement, right?



So for somebody to argue that BBDS is superior, they would have to simultaneously argue that randomness in league placement is optimal and the "most fair" AND that randomness in draft position is sub-optimal and is "not fair".



So, is randomness good or evil? Fair or unfair?



Randomness has been adjudicated as "as fair as possible" by legislatures, courts, and sports leagues in our society for decades.(Remember the coin flip for Kareem Abdul Jabbar in the NBA draft?). How do we start every football game? With a coin toss. How were the Kentucky Derby post positions determined before ESPN? Random draw. Does anybody think that Secretariat's opponents got unfair post position draws?



That said, if KDS improves the game's experience for a majority of participants then I can support KDS. I'm not sold on BBDS yet.



[ March 30, 2006, 12:52 AM: Message edited by: GoldenEagle ]

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Post by sportsbettingman » Wed Mar 29, 2006 6:44 pm

To some degree..if given whatever the masses want...the next gripe may be bidding to select whom they compete against.
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Post by KJ Duke » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:54 pm

Originally posted by GoldenEagle:

RE: BBDS supposedly an improvement vs. KDS. You already have the random draw of which league you're put in, whether BBDS or KDS, right? That randomness is "necessary" to "keep it fair", right? So why is randomness in draft positions now suddenly "evil" or "unfair to some owners"? See the hypocrisy? But to argue that BBDS is superior to KDS due to removal of the "unfairness or randomness" just doesn't hold up when you factor in that which league you're in is already determined randomly! Certainly to be able to bid on which league you're in would be "not fair", hence we INSIST on random league placement, right?



So for somebody to argue that BBDS is superior, they would have to simultaneously argue that randomness in league placement is optimal and the "most fair" AND that randomness in draft position is sub-optimal and is "not fair".



So, is randomness good or evil? Fair or unfair?



Randomness has been adjudicated as "as fair as possible" by legislatures, courts, and sports leagues in our society for decades.(Remember the coin flip for Kareem Abdul Jabbar in the NBA draft?). How do we start every football game? With a coin toss. How were the Kentucky Derby post positions determined before ESPN? Random draw. Does anybody think that Secretariat's opponents got unfair post position draws?



This is exactly the fallacious type of argument I was talking about.



Eagle, random slot selection can be eliminated in a fair and judicious way. Please tell me how league placement can be eliminated in an equally fair way? It can't, which is why it must be random. Please re-read my post - and if you understand it this time, you'll understand why your argument is dismissed.

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Post by KJ Duke » Wed Mar 29, 2006 7:57 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Yo GG, Chest...



Would you define FAIR as freaking GUESSING what another owner is willing to wager on selecting where he wants to draft? ...why don't we all dive into Auction drafting?



What if you...not them...guessed one dollar short each time...and you get the shaft on each guess...??? ...is that fair?



Sounds about as lucky as random selections to me.



(Unless you and your friends are soooo smart...thus making this whole thing less fair...???)



~Lance Lance, out-guessing the competiton is a critical element in fantasy baseball. Its a critical element in business.

Its a critical element in betting. I'm surprised that someone going by the monikor you use doesn't get that.



[ March 30, 2006, 02:04 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

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Post by JohnZ » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:14 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

If the % of getting your Top 4 choice is high (#15 pick was 73%), then I think I could argue that KDS would be better because no faab is lost AND BBS might not yield that same 73% as KDS. you could argue it, but you'd be wrong. KDS is unfair to some owners. BBDS is fair to everyone. [/QUOTE]Let's say next year you took everyone's BBDS lists, and ranked them from 1 to 15 by dollar amount bid, I'd bet more owners would wind up with their 15th choice than just three in KDS. Probably four You can not sit here and tell me that an owner could not possibly get his 15th choice in BBDS.



I'd also bet that the end results would not differ that much at all. Why should they? Wouldn't someone's KDS list allocate dollars to BBDS in the same order?



Just look at #15 there. #15 would be the 3rd or 4th choice BBDS wise in 12 of 22 leagues also.



Guys that listed #15 3rd or 4th in KDS would allocate the 3rd and 4th most dollars in their BBDS lists.



At the end of the day, the only real difference could be that one system loses FAAB and the other doesn't.



Looking forward to the one-line belittling response with no support of your position.

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:55 pm

Originally posted by UFS:

At the end of the day, the only real difference could be that one system loses FAAB and the other doesn't.



Looking forward to the one-line belittling response with no support of your position. your end of the day scenario is incomplete. the real difference is that FAAB is fair to everyone, KDS is not.

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:57 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Lance, out-guessing the competiton is a critical element in fantasy baseball. Its a critical element in business.

Its a critical element in betting. I'm surprised that someone going by the monikor you use doesn't get that. duke - in lance's world, everyone would still be riding horses instead of using vehicles.

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:58 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

We are tampering with a tradition of fantasy sports...the luck of the draw.



That random shot at getting this year "flavor of the month" selection.



Some years the top 6 players are a wash...this year happened to be the top 2...but saying Vlad or Tex or "insert player here" is a deep cliff dive in talent potential from the others is simply opinion.



I like random...I like KDS...but to have to waste a single dollar of the years bidding suppy to gaurantee a draft slot seems overkill.



I admit if you bid 1000 of your 1000 for pick #1...I'd be happy...knowing you were done for the year...and it is interesting where people would draw the line in how much to bid for a top few selection...but in the big picture...it seems to give "Joe Blow" a sure shot at having the top pick every year by bidding crazily, and that doesn't seem right.



~Lance would you favor random weekly free agent acquisitions? why or why not. let me know when the light bulb goes off.

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