Did KDS Work In The NFBC This Year?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:59 pm

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Bidding will be GREAT

bring the noise spyhunter!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:00 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I would presume that almost everyone will prefer KDS to random selection because they're more likely to get a spot they want, less likely to get one they don't. The feedback seems to support this, thus I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb by predicting that Greg will NEVER go backwards (back to random), so any further comparison of either KDS or BBDS to random are irrelevant - the debate should only be KDS vs BBDS. After two seasons of discussion in both baseball and football, I think I can argue both sides.

In favor of KDS

KDS is established and successful, after this year, and simple. If someone makes a mistake the consequences are minimal. With BBDS, if someone were confused and bid their entire budget on a slot position they'd be unable to pickup a single free agent. In such a case, they'd have virtually no chance of competing during the season. This would make for a difficult controversy and one very unhappy customer who threw away $1250 on a mistake before the season began.

In favor of BBDS

KDS does not address the fairness/luck issue, which BBDS does. Theoretically, 14 players in the league could get their first choice using KDS, and one player could get their last choice. Is that fair? No, in the same way that random selection smiles on some and frowns on others, KDS does the same.

BBDS is more true to the spirit of the competition --- winners and losers should be determined by (a) what happens on the baseball field, and (b) your strategies, management and decision-making as an owner.

Sure, luck is involved in many aspects of fantasy baseball, from freak injuries to who happens to be sitting to your left or right during the draft, but there is no way to control for these things. The luck of the draw, which is a factor in KDS, can and should be eliminated. We're not playing the lotto here, we're in competition.

And on this topic, let me head off one argument that will inevitably be made here (before I puke from hearing it for the 50th time). It goes like this -- you can't control injuries, luck is a part of the game, you can't change it and shouldn't attempt to. Here is the fallacy in that argument ... in any competition, lets take the real game of baseball as an example, yes, luck is inevitably part of the game. If your star player slips in the dugout and breaks his wrist because a fan tossed beer on the steps, guess what? Those are the breaks. But does that mean that when the player steps up to the plate we draw a piece of paper out of the hat to see if he starts with a 3-0 count or an 0-2 count? No, we don't do that, because that is an element of luck that is unneccesary, avoidable, and has nothing to do with the competition. Similarly, randomly drawing for slots or preference in choice of slots is also unneccesary, has nothing to do with skill, and can and should be avoided. excellent post duke. great work!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:02 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'd like to see where auction style drafting was the first ever draft in fantasy sports.

It was not.

My problem is with the wimpy whiners all over that cry due to not having the perfect draft slot for any given year.

These same whiners seem to feel they cannot compete unless they start this serpentine draft at exactly the right spot...or else they are doomed to fail.

Thus...they fight and reason their side to all of us...and hope we take the bait.

I see it as bullcrap. If you can't win from the 9 hole or the 15th hole...you can't win this year...sack up and play next year.

If you think the top 3 or so spots are sooooooo important...rally to change the game itself.

We can play 3,000.00 entry 7-team leagues...or some sort of other setup.

Who the hell dreamed up it HAS to be a 12 or 15 team league?

We can decide via entry to play...if you want first pick...play 15 years...you'll have a good chance at getting 1st pick one of the times.

Damn cry babies.

~Lance i'm tired of wimpy whiners who stand in the way of progress.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:04 am

Originally posted by GoldenEagle:

RE: BBDS supposedly an improvement vs. KDS. You already have the random draw of which league you're put in, whether BBDS or KDS, right? That randomness is "necessary" to "keep it fair", right? So why is randomness in draft positions now suddenly "evil" or "unfair to some owners"? See the hypocrisy? But to argue that BBDS is superior to KDS due to removal of the "unfairness or randomness" just doesn't hold up when you factor in that which league you're in is already determined randomly!

same question for you, how would you like a system where weekly free agents were determined randomly (instead of using FAAB). thank you in advance.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:28 am

Also, I bet the reason that KDS worked so well this year is a bit of reflection of the talent pool. Between the 3rd and the 23rd person typically drafted, there wasn't such a huge difference. This enabled people to go for a bottom of the order strategy. If the talent was concentrated in the top 8, then a fall off, I bet that you would see allot more upset people.

Frankly, in a perfect world WE SHOULD be doing bidding / auction drafts (as it is inherently the most fair approach), however, I recognized that this is difficult to achieve given that it takes 2-3 hours more work and many people aren't as familiar with the format.

Spy

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:17 am

Gees, the only fair way is "Random"...

Everyone has an equal chance at #1 and at #15.

KDS and BBDS just adds some flair and or strategy to the process. I also believe the BBDS will just force the ARod and Pujols lovers to pay more to draft them... FAIR???

I wasn't one of the people who got their 1st 4 picks. I got my 9th pick I believe. If i would have left the KDS at 1-15, insted of the way I ranked them, would I have gotten the 9th pick instead of the 11th??? My first 4 choices were 8, 7, 1, 2...

Does it even matter???

Hell no, the only thing that will matter is how you manage the STATS... I drafted from the 11th spot as I would have drafted from any spot. The only variance is possibly the top picks. After that, I'd be willing to bet I still took J reed in the 20th if he was avail... Doh!!!

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:32 am

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Hangtown:

[QB] Gees, the only fair way is "Random"...

No it is not- the only fair way is to let everyone control their own destiny.

As far as UFS's comments- it is not about how many people get their favorite spot it is about an equal playing field to get to that favorite spot. It is readily available. I know your response will be there is no bad picks just bad owners, which I then will ask the jury to look at last year's standings around place 190.

And Lance- I have met you personally. I think we both would agree you are not the atypical fantasy player. You are the guy betting Kramer at the airport which flight is going to come in first. I will leave it that we will never agree on this one but I will still let you buy me a few beers.

I was luke warm at best on BBDS until I was one of the 3 guys who got their fifteenth choice while so many players were drafting from the exact area they wanted to. The chances of this happening again in 07 are so minute- I now consider this a crusuade for the Little Lance's of the world, the spyhunter JR's who are drafting a 36 year old Delmon Young in the first round of the 2023 NFBC because he got stuck with a pick he did not like.

GoldenEagle · Post by **GoldenEagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:43 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Frankly, in a perfect world WE SHOULD be doing bidding / auction drafts (as it is inherently the most fair approach), however, I recognized that this is difficult to achieve given that it takes 2-3 hours more work and many people aren't as familiar with the format.

Spy Uh, spy, if you had a live auction for draft spots, in what order would the spots be nominated? Let's see, there's random, and then there's ... random? You see, you just can't get away from randomness, even in your "perfect" world....

GoldenEagle · Post by **GoldenEagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:54 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

This is exactly the fallacious type of argument I was talking about.

Eagle, random slot selection can be eliminated in a fair and judicious way. Please tell me how league placement can be eliminated in an equally fair way? It can't, which is why it must be random. Please re-read my post - and if you understand it this time, you'll understand why your argument is dismissed. I wasn't debating the merits of what you pointed out in regard to draft slots. I was only pointing out the irony of some guys making the BBDS as an "essential improvement" from "KDS" or "random" due to "lack of fairness" that they might have overlooked that randomness is still heavily involved in the event (league placement, reserve round sequence, auction nomination sequence in those events, etc.)

[ March 30, 2006, 09:56 AM: Message edited by: GoldenEagle ]

GoldenEagle · Post by **GoldenEagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:01 am

This is an interesting debate. I'm curious as to what the pro-BBDS advocates would use as a strategy if BBDS was adopted? Would you spend $50, $100 or more to get a specific spot (#1 or #8?). Do you see the advantage of one spot, say the middle, worth "one whole player" and hence would bid $300+, as if it was equivalent to a valuable free agent? Or is that crazy? But isn't FAAB bidding outcomes for free agents often called "crazy" as well?

Would you spend nothing, or perhaps very little to avoid say #15, and take advantage of other owners' depleted FAAB money when bidding for free agents? Would you hype the heck out of it on the message boards, and hope some newbie blows $250 on #8 and you spend $20 on #7?

I mean, if the change is apparently so urgently needed, shouldn't the pro-BBDS advocates offer up some scenarios to how great it will be if/when it's implemented? Or are we to make the change based on "dry theory" of how much more "skill" and less "luck" there will be....?

Just curious.

[ March 30, 2006, 10:12 AM: Message edited by: GoldenEagle ]

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:02 am

since ther is an inherent order to the positions, you could go 1 to 15 or 15 to 1 or random, the big difference is each player is given an equal choice.

As for the point on league selection. this is a factor that simply can't be controlled or a choice system implemented because the opportunity for collusion. in addition the concept of choice requires all participants have access to data. in baseball this can be quantified and reported. Since NFBC particpants do not know each other this is pointless.

The goal imho should be to reduce the randomness to the extent possible. let's say this year Pujolis takes his game to a whole new level (aka derrick lee) and arod hurts himself. Everyone will want such a super stud. it is only fair that whoever gets that pick should pay for the right in some fashion....

GoldenEagle · Post by **GoldenEagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:18 am

Just thinking about what competitions in the universe have the most elements of "luck" and "skill" and I always come back to CHESS as perhaps being the game that is pretty much 100% skill.

Or is it? Even in chess, you have a random draw to see who plays with the white pieces and who gets the black pieces. And it matters a great deal to the strategy and tactics of the game and match once the draw has been decided.

The best chess masters in the world have learned how to win from every starting position.

Wouldn't there also be some merit to the best Fantasy Sports competitors as being able to "win from any draft spot" as well?

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:33 am

Come on Chest??? "the only fair way is to let everyone control their own destiny.Again, that adds strategy and thus some will be at a disadvantage leading to unfairness... I had a guy bid 2/3rds of his faab money in a satellite league on cotts and miceli???

See what I mean, not everyone is as intelligent as you and I...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:39 am

Originally posted by GoldenEagle:

Just thinking about what competitions in the universe have the most elements of "luck" and "skill" and I always come back to CHESS as perhaps being the game that is pretty much 100% skill.

Or is it? Even in chess, you have a random draw to see who plays with the white pieces and who gets the black pieces. And it matters a great deal to the strategy and tactics of the game and match once the draw has been decided.

The best chess masters in the world have learned how to win from every starting position.

Wouldn't there also be some merit to the best Fantasy Sports competitors as being able to "win from any draft spot" as well? it's been some time since i've read as many posts from a single person that is filled with non-issues.

i'm not sure you've answered the question i asked you: how would you like a system where weekly free agents were determined randomly (instead of using FAAB).

can you do so? thanks again.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:43 am

Originally posted by Hangtown:

Again, that adds strategy and thus some will be at a disadvantage leading to unfairness... playing fantasy baseball IS STRATEGY. if it wasn't and everything was random, why would anyone play? :rolleyes:

:rolleyes:

thanks.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:48 am

I could care less how we get our picks..all new drafts are random in the draft order..I wouldn't spend a dollar on a draft position I will draft from whatever position I am given...everyone stop crying already.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:51 am

Originally posted by GoldenEagle:

Just thinking about what competitions in the universe have the most elements of "luck" and "skill" and I always come back to CHESS as perhaps being the game that is pretty much 100% skill.

Or is it? Even in chess, you have a random draw to see who plays with the white pieces and who gets the black pieces. And it matters a great deal to the strategy and tactics of the game and match once the draw has been decided.

The best chess masters in the world have learned how to win from every starting position.

Golden,

Let's say that for this year two guys have an equivalent acution value of $40, and no one else more than $33. That gives the first 2 spots a $7 advantage thru round one that is unlikely to be made up with the pick variance in subsequent rounds assuming equal skill among all competitors. Shouldn't those guys who are given a natural advantage, have an offsetting handicap, like having to pay for the right to get those players?

Using your chess scenario, if 2 guys are absolutely evenly matched, the guy who selects white wins every time, right? Now wouldn't it be preferable if there was an equal and offsetting disadvantage to selecting white to even the playing field?

One of the interesting things I find about having this debate for the NFBC is that the higher the level of competition, in general, the tighter the variance in skill. In a lesser league, where you select from doesn't matter nearly as much because the range of competitor's skill varies greatly.

The NFBC takes that the competition level up a notch, which magnifies the importance of any variance, like draft slot. Just ask the guys who competed in the Ultimate or drafted in my private lge of similar caliber players ... those drafts are even tougher, they're gonna be closer, and thus any small edge matters even more.

Wouldn't there also be some merit to the best Fantasy Sports competitors as being able to "win from any draft spot" as well? Yeah, but tell me where the merit is in winning a close competition when you were given a natural advantage?

Do you think any of the World Series, going back through history, would've come out differently if one of the teams started each game with a 1-0 lead. Would it be fair to the other team who then didn't win because the degree to which they were better was smaller than overcoming a 1-0 lead every game?

Your argument seems to be, well if you're deserving of the win you should be able to overcome a handicap ... am I right? Of course, the flipside of that is: why should you be able to win only if given an advantage?

[ March 30, 2006, 10:55 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:05 am

The point is, everyone has the same chance at the start of the season with a random draw...

From there, screw it up any way you want!! I know I didn't really understand the importance of the KDS when I selected my preference, next year i will. Thus again, an unfair advantage!!

even Chest suggested he wouldn't play again if he had a chance he'd draw the 15th slot. a random draw is the only way to be sure you had the same chance at 15 as you do the 1 or 8 slot...

Also, i don't believe the competition here is as good as everyone thinks. only the way it is played does it make the draft all that much more important. a daily line up change makes the draft pretty much irrelevant. IMHO

ps: I took ortiz and reyes with my first 2 at #11 and #20 and I'm very happy with that... I too would not spend a dime to get anything other than my "random" draft pick. Anything past the first pick, would be subjective to how others might draft.

IE: pujos wasn't always picked 2nd...

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:13 am

Some people assume that you can not end up with your last choice in a bidding format. I disagree. Everyone has very different strategies and perceptions of players value, thus views of what spots are more valuable than others (in sequence), so there is always a chance that someone could bid higher than you: even for your 11-14th preferences. Especially for those whom bid quite high for some spots, thinking they are pretty assured on at least getting one of those, thus bidding lower on 11-14th preferences....especially when you have very little respect/value for those other spots -others may see them in a totally different perspective.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:39 am

All you need to look at is how close some of these races are? You can lose thousands of dollars on a couple of runs scored or rbi's. Therefore as I have said a few times now remove every element of luck as possible.

If your point of view is how do we get the most people with slots they prefer KDS is for you...

If you believe the most important thing is everyone having equal access then BBDS is the way to go...

The folks who believe bidding nothing is the way to go should love it.

As far as the Miceli and Cotts line- I do not see the logic. If you think those were bad bids then you should be extremely happy- the guy blew it and you can clean up later and take his money. I am assuming one of your main goals in laying down this money is to make some money- I would assume that goal is higher than making sure the Cotts and Miceli team have an even chance as you opening day.

I think Kevin said it best when he said the debate is simply BBDS vs KDS. No BBDS proponent will disagree with you when you say luck is involved in this game, our point is simply remove luck or chance every time you get the opportunity and the event is better.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:53 am

To refute the Chess example: at the championship level they don't just play one game. they play a series where who goes first CHANGES to make it fair. Thanks for bringing up the point it helps explain exactly why giving all players the most even shot to determining their own draft destiny is important.

Personally, I would love it if we started the draft with an open outcry bid for draft position. That would be the most fair but I understand gregs concern about adding complexity to a very large event.

Spy

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 6:21 am

Chest, I understand and appreciate your concern about elliminating luck in this competition, as I do too (see post draft TB#3 thread), but some things do become fairly marginal as compared to the effort and amount of people it satisfies.

In addition, have you considered one of the consequences of moving further along this path? In 2004 & 2005 you got what you got and then you went about a draft strategy plan based on whom you thought would be available in those spots. In 2006, people made a concerted effort to get certain spots based on WHO they wanted. How many people in slots 5-15 do you think got the person they were targeting and what do you think they will do next year to make sure they do get him next time? If there is a bidding process, it will alter things more than we wish IMHO. Listen, I am all for those whom want to spend their FAAB money on these spots, as I can't say I will, but I don't want to see a drastic increase in the unpredictablility of selections because people now feel they need to move up even further to get their MAN. I know, I know, we need to be prepared for these things, but I would reckon some things happened this year that just OVERLY surprised, thus altered the draft quite a bit.

If I can use an analogy, what does putting a highway or man made rivers do to upset the environemnt they are place in? I don't think my point is huge one, but nor do I think the advanatges of changing from KDS to Bidding are any bigger.

[ March 30, 2006, 01:09 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:11 am

folks against BBDS must be against FAAB. unless of course they are hypocrites

[ March 30, 2006, 01:11 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Lost Sailor · Post by **Lost Sailor** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:40 am

Wow.. I stopped reading midway thru the third page of this thread. Waaay too may analogy stretches.

I like the Kentucky Derby style. Thought is was pretty cool. I preferred the late-middle (11-13) and got one of them. Nuf said. Would I have been pissed off if I got the #1 and Pujols or ARod? Probably not...

stan · Post by **stan** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:55 am

A lot of players are trying to figure out how they can pick their draft slot and this opens up Pandora's box of problems. If you only want certain draft spots then Auction leagues are the way for you.It may be harder from #14 /15 but far from impossible.

Chicago League - Pick #13