The Hindenburg and the Titanic

[DOUGHBOYS]

I got an e-mail from a first year Main Event participant asking which Main Event is the best to enter if wanting to win the Overall. This argument has been on the Boards in past years. And now, there is a third midweek option, which I find a little much, but what do I know...
They've filled four leagues on this day, so it looks like a good business decision.

Let's start with that midweek draft. There are a lot of names I recognize. Former past Overall Champions, many league champions. In other words, if wanting to go for a pleasant day of surfing, you've picked the wrong beach. Those waters are infested with sharks. Timing-wise, I don't know how much more info these drafters will know after with Main Draft of the 23rd.
Probably little.
Or how much less they'll know than the drafters on the 30th.
Probably little.


Like the draft on the 30th, there is a wide cross section of drafters on the 23rd. . How many well-known good drafters will not be determined till league assignments are announced. In the past, Greg has done a little write-up on each entrant, but this year, it looks like he got too busy and didn't complete that pass.
If drafting for the first time in a Main Event, just assume that everybody is good. On whole, this is the best group of drafters in the world. The worst thing to do is to underestimate anybody at the table.
That said, the timing of the drafts is what differentiates the two. In the draft on the 23rd, we may not know who is Closing for a number of teams. We may not know which rookies will stick. We may not know who wins certain positional battles or rotation spots. There may be a trade between the drafts. It all could be good or bad, depending on how we draft.
Let's take the Cardinals. On the 23rd, as now, it'll be assumed that John Jay has won the outfield spot and that Oscar Taveras is sent down to the Minors. Let's say, you like Taveras on the 23rd and even if sent to AAA, determined to hold him till called up. So, you take him in the 25th round. Afterwards, the Cardinals announce that they are impressed with Taveras enough to give him the starting nod, making Jay their fourth outfielder.
For you, you are rounds ahead of the drafters on the 30th, who will now take Taveras a lot earlier. Jay drafters are hosed. Jay may not even be taken in some drafts on the 30th and becomes a drop option for those on the 23rd.

The first draft affords for more bargains. And at the same time more pitfalls.
Let's use a pitching example.
Rafael Betancourt is the Rockies Closer. He is a suitable Closer and depending on Closer runs in your draft, he could be taken anywhere from the ninth to 17th round. But after the 23rd and first draft, he is traded to the Phils to set up Papelbon.
Betancourt becomes a wasted pick for everybody who took him in the draft on the 23rd, while everybody on the 30th knows not to take him.
Rex Brothers who went mostly unpicked in the draft on the 23rd suddenly becomes a hot commodity on the 30th.

These examples show that both drafts could have their advantages and pitfalls. As for one being more advantageous than the other, I don't see it. If wanting to know every bit of information leading into a season, then the last draft is for you. If you've got a little gamble in you, and you KNOW that Scott Kazmir will be Cleveland's fifth starter and not Trevor Bauer, then the first draft is for you.
Best possible advice I can give is to draft well in either/both of them.
That's what really counts.
If not drafting well, we may as well call the first draft 'the Hindenburg' and the second 'the Titanic', they'll be disasters no matter what announcements are made before or after.

[Outlaw]

This was a good read Dough- thanks!!!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Mike, appreciated.