I went to the Kentucky Derby a hundred years or so ago. The first six races were good to me. Finished in the money in five of them including hitting an exacta and a daily double. But the seventh race was THE DERBY. Didn’t hurt that I had $30 across the board on Alysheba who edged Bet Twice for the win.
The NFBC is the same for me. The other events are fun to follow or even participate in. Very worthwhile and filled with promise. But there is only one Main Event. That is the one you want to win…where pigs fly…where HOFers are made.
Since I do not compete in a dozen or so events like many on the boards here do (where do you guys find the time?), I am almost constantly focused on the Main Event during hot stove time. As I posted over at Dorito Central, I use NFBC ADP’s a great deal in developing my strategy especially as it relates to what I will probably have to give up to take a certain player at a certain time, who is moving up over the off-season, what depth in the talent pool is most represented at the various stages of the draft. I do not use ADP’s as a valuation tool (i.e. this guy is going in the third round so he MUST be good), but rather how I want my draft to flow to pick up the stats I need.
I use Shandler primarily for research and projections, though I do not get too specific. None of my worksheets have guys who will hit 23 home runs for example. Anyone I think can hit between 18 and 22 home-funs is on my sheet at “20”, 23 to 27 at “25”, etc. Same with all the other counting stats except wins and saves. Most of my time is not spent on whether a guy has a chance to up his dinger count from 25 to 30, but mostly about who has what job in the lineup and what are their chances to retain that role.
General musings (or amusings) about baseball this year. Forget speed. Forget 200+ strikeout guys. Forget saves. It is homeruns that are getting to be the scarce commodity to me. Before pitching became so dominant a couple of years ago, we would get about 45 guys a year who you could count on for 30+ HR a year. That is down by about a third. Statistically (in the very loosest sense of the term) that is huge. In the vacuum, the guys who can throw in 15 or 20 SB has risen, though many of these guys cannot be counted on for more than 400 AB. Up SB. Down HR. A little juice anyone?
I also see a growing trend among teams using platoons more and more. Used to be (it seems…not empirically proven) at least six guys on a team, barring injury, could be counted on for 500+ AB. This platoon mentality plus the constant factors such as injuries and defensive replacements put another important factor, AB, at risk. Last year, there were 254 offensive positions available among the 30 MLB teams. There were only 115 players to get 500+ AB or just over 45% of the available positions. And only eleven teams had five or more players with 500+. Likewise, eleven teams had three or fewer. It might just be my perception, but “Stars and Scrubs” is a growing strategy in real baseball. Damn Billy Beane.
The dominance of starting pitching is a bit of a façade, but there seem to be more opportunity for the 200 K guy who doesn’t have to throw 250 IP to get them. There were about 45 guys last year who did get 200+ K’s or could have netted 200+ K’s given at least 210 IP. Thirty-two starts, average pitching into the seventh, and you are there. And there were 65 pitchers who had at least 30 starts last year. Time to lower the mound again.
But the thing about trends is they change. The wise ones are the one who can predict the when the pendulum will swing. The only “Wise” I know comes with a picture of an owl on a potato chip bag, so I do not think I have foresight. But….I think this trend towards less power hitting and more power pitching is at its peak and should continue through 2013.
Giving my feelings about the some general trends in baseball led me to this years’ draft strategy. Typically I have been the aficionado of the balance approach with those few 20/20 guys in higher esteem than the big-banging first basemen. Likewise, I believe (and still do to a certain extent) that you can always wait on pitching. Not this year. I call my strategy “Meat and Wings”. Give me the biggest, knuckle dragging power I can grab. Likewise, spend early draft picks for the power anchor arms. One is a reflection of a commodity in short supply and the other a reflection that I think you will not get the points you need by loading up your pitching staff with middle of the rotation types.
Not that the 20/20 guys (or trying to get 75/75 in your first three bats) is wrong. Not that next years “ace” can’t be found in the middle draft rounds. It is just that this year core counting power stats (especially if you can avoid totally sacrificing your batting average) seem to be in premium and that speed sources are more prevalent later. And try to get them from the meat of the batting order, especially #3 hitters. Likewise three or four power arms early (again if you can avoid sacrificing your WHIP) gives you options later like whether or not to grab the extra closer without sacrificing too many strikeout points. It seems logical and it is a strategy. Whether or not it is a good strategy will be seen in September.
I was talking with the great Jupinka (always, always a pleasure by the way) at the NCAA viewing party Thursday night in Vegas. When talking about my draft position (#5 which was my 5th choice), we discussed that from that position you could launch a very good core, balanced OF/OF to start the draft and about how that could really give your base a solid foundation. I had been mulling that strategy as well and when someone as good as Quahogs speaks, you should listen, but somewhere in the night (an event of revelation somewhere between an epiphany and a gas attack) I just knew that if I did not take Joey Votto I would not be happy. He was just about the only player I was really wedded to this year. I touted him back when Greg was just beginning his industry events and I have not backed off sense. I would have taken Braun had he dropped. I would have taken Miguel Cabrera if I had the first pick. But short of Cabrera, I could not think of another batter with the potential (nothing is given) to be such a power stats and batting average anchor for my team. The extra dozen or three hits that Votto and his line-drive swing (something like 70% of line-drives fall in for hits) gives me some options later when that .250-ish batting average is not looking so bad.
So I passed over McCutchen, Kemp, and CarGo who could have given me more stolen bases certainly. And I did so realizing that there was a lot of first base power available later from the guns like Freeman, Davis, or Butler or even with the likes of Chris Davis, Dunn or Reynolds. But at this point in the draft I am tapping my toes. Now I wait the excruciating twenty picks until my turn again.
Coming into the second round, I gave fleeting thought to locking up one of the few walking third basemen like Wright or Zimmerman. If I did, I lose out on the last of the upper-crust outfielders. If I don’t, I will end up with someone like Youkilis as my thirdbaseman. As horrible as the latter scenario is, I felt I needed a top outfield guy to build my team around. Had Adam Jones been there, I would have picked him. He wasn’t, so my choices were Cespedes, Heyward, B.J. Upton, Ellsbury or Bruce. B.J. would have been nice especially with the SB, but why give back all my BA upside with Votto right away. Ellsbury is too risky. If he stays healthy he is a helluva payoff, but he is definitely not a “meat” ballplayer. Bruce was tempting, but again real BA issues and he is batting 5th in that lineup, so he may not have the counting stats other than HR covered. I almost pulled the trigger on Jason Heyward, but instead settled on another guy who will hit #3 in the lineup and may be (if he does not get injured) the only guy in Oakland to get 525 AB this year in Yoenis Cespedes. I am still haunted by the label the “Cuban Rob Deer” as he was tagged last year. I do not believe last year was a fluke. It would take over 600 AB for him to get 30 HR, but 25 should be a pretty safe bet with a good BA.
Now it is time to begin investing in pitching. I had my choices ranked pretty much Price, Hamels, Lee and Cain. Would not cry if any of them were on my team, though Price and Hamels were a “1A” or “1B” choice. I like everything about Cain and Cliff Lee’s control would allow me to accept some wildness later if necessary, but Price was scooped up by Mr. Menna and Hamels was there for me. Ace. Sit back and mark off names.
By the time the draft crawled back to me, Felix, Lee, Darvish (still not that high on him and MtM had better hope he still has a seven game run like the end of last year in him), Cain, Wainwright, and Weaver had been picked. Had Wainwright made it back to me (thank you very little, Scott
), I would have scooped him up. I was already going to reach for one of the two batters I wanted in the 5th so I wanted pitcher here. And despite the pitcher run that just occurred, I did not cry in my beer. Instead, I grabbed Scherzer, who was my #2 choice for my #2 pitcher (Gio, Greinke and Bumgarner were the others on my short list and all went within the next four picks after me). I had a real man crush on Max last year as I was sure he would break out. He seems healthy this spring, has a good offensive (but certainly not defensive) team behind him, is the right age, has the right skill set, and is one of the few starters who can (didn’t say will) throw more than a strike out per IP without being too wild. If he can get his IP up over 200 and avoid a disaster month like last April, we won’t just be talking Verlander when we discuss potential Tiger Cy Young’s.I have two starting pitchers in my first four picks. I have never done anything like that in a fantasy baseball draft. Looking at what/who I thought would be picked in the fifth and sixth rounds’, it looked like a primo spot to get one of the few catchers who my other players wouldn’t have to carry. Posey was gone of course. I had them ranked Wieters, Santana, Rosario, VMart, Mauer and Molina, but in reality, had Wieters and Santana both been picked, I might have picked Rosario, or I might have changed my draft strategy and grabbed another OFer or corner. As it was, Santana and Molina were picked, so I got my #1 target for catchers in Matt Wieters. He should bat fourth just behind Jones and ahead of Davis, may see 500+ AB (rare in a catcher), may hit 30 HR one day, but 25 seems more likely. Where I see more improvement out of him this year is in batting average. Taking a few of those ground balls and turning them into liners or flyballs I think get him to the .280 mark. Catchers tend to peak a little later than others and though he seems to have plateaued the last couple of years, I think there is some more upside. Buster who?
Waiting less than patiently for my next pick, I had in my mind I wanted at least one more starting pitcher. Depending on who ended up being available, I was will to get even one more SP in my first ten picks, but by now pitching was moving from “blue chip” to “just plain good” in my rankings. The pitchers I wanted the most to come back to me would have been Sale or Latos. I knew it was a stretch. Did not have long to have my bubble burst. Schroeder was not playing the piano and snagged Sale two picks after mine and Josh Blumenreich grabbed Latos three picks further down. Shields, Sabathia, Zimmermann and Dickey also went, though I had two pitchers ranked higher, my #3 and #4 for this spot. One was Cueto. Not going to get the strikeouts, but very nice control. The other was Gallardo. Not the control guy (but no Darvish), but has heat to spare. I was sweating which would be best for my team when the “Man from Midfield” Jody Earley grabbed Cueto. Gallardo is no booby prize, so I grabbed him. Now I am pretty happy. Not to test the injury poltergeist’s, but Hamels, Scherzer, and Gallardo could easily get me to half of the strikeouts I am trying to get. This opens up options for me later though I cannot ignore the category.
I cannot pat myself on the back because this is a quick turn-around pick coming up. And for the first time in the draft (sad to say after only six rounds) I am not completely sure who (from a short list) I am going to get here. If Ike Davis had dropped, I would have scooped him up. I really like him this year. Mr. Menna grabs him so that is his second scoop on me. Rizzo went, though it barely registered it at the time. I wasn’t looking at this player myself, but Bob Particelli grabbed Ryan Howard. He already had Freddie Freeman, so picking another 1B kind of surprised me. I was considering speed, but really wanted another power bat. The best ones out there seemed to be at 1B at this stage, there seemed to be a small run on them, and if Bob could grab a second one, why not me? I know. Sheep. Still, I looked at my list of available and had Hosmer, Konerko, Trumbo and Chris Davis. I was not really excited about the last two and Konerko would have fit my team better here I think now in retrospect. Instead I pulled the trigger on Hosmer. Those who have drafted with me know I like to draft last years’ hypes. People seemed to be all over Hosmer last year and this year he is so much chopped liver (comparatively). I do not think he will every have more than 20 HR power, especially if he does not hit quite so many balls on the ground, but he brings better than average SB to the position and can hit for better average if his hit rate normalizes. Konerko, even at 37, might have been better. Wanna trade, Chad?
At this stage I have only one outfielder. I seriously considered Granderson here though I did not pull the trigger. I was waiting on speed, though I did not want “Judy” Pierre or “Nancy” Revere types. Looking at who was out there, I grabbed here Norichika Aoki (I was informed I even pronounced his first name right during the draft which is a minor miracle). I would take last years’ stats gladly but honestly think there is more there, like 100+ runs and 40 SB to go with the 10 HR and .280 BA. That is his upside I think and my wish I know. Gotta like hitting in front of Braun and Ramirez.
Here I changed my strategy a bit more. The remaining starting pitchers were only as good as and perhaps not better than what I thought I could get in four or five rounds. I looked at Morse and Cuddyer but again didn’t pull the trigger. The plan was to start taking closers in the eleventh round. Since I was looking at my long turn and since Soriano, Romo and Rivera had just been picked, I thought I might be looking as squeaking out “Veras” if I wasn’t careful. I grabbed J.J. Putz who I rank as a solid second tier (not bad since I think there is only two left in the top tier).
At ten I nabbed Hart. I have him in my auction league as well. At this time I am not sure who would be his replacement until he returns, but with any sort of regular player I am looking at the potential for 30 HR and a plus BA out of my third OFer.
My second closer came in the eleventh, more or less getting back on track strategy wise. Huston Street has some warts when it comes to being injured. To me he was the last of the second tiers before I get to Grant BallFour or Jason “I am the what?” Grilli. Most of the other closer roles are in flux or have committee written all over them. Had I not taken Street I might have went with Perkins whom I also have in my auction league. Here I also gave up on having Mike Minor. I was pretty satisfied with my first three starters and would loved to have had him on my team, but I really thought I had other needs. Josh Blumenreich grabbed him and I think will be VERY happy he did. This year Minor asserts himself as the Braves “Ace”, no matter when Beachy gets back or what miracles Medlen pulls off.
Getting a little long here so I will change formats a bit:
12th Andre Ethier, OF LAD – OK, so he might platoon later. Always liked him. Gonna hit fifth most days he plays, maybe higher some days against certain righties. Great potential for average and good history with counting stats. Hit 31 HR….once.
13th Lance Lynn, SP STL – The Cards always seem in it. Live arm, not too wild. Needless to say I would take last years’ stats (which I think represents the limit to his upside) in a heartbeat. Still a nice fourth SP.
14th Dexter Fowler, OF COL – Rockies still might trade him. Want to own him the year he hits 20 HR, steals 40 bases, hits .280 and scores 100 runs. What? It could happen! Picture pigs flying here.
15th AJ Burnett, SP PIT – What I thought was his contract year may turn out to be his swan song. Hoping for one more very good year. I am vested as he is on my auction team too. Danger Will Robinson!
16th Kevin Youkilis, 3B NYY – Doooh! Somebody was going to get him. Maybe just maybe he can stay in the lineup long enough to take advantage of batting 4th in Granderson’s absence. May be rationalizing here, but there is some value at this stage of the draft.
17th Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C BST – Paid by the letter, the jersey makers dream. I had not really targeted Salty. Ended up with him in both auction and Main Event. Not much BA which hurts. Power is for real. More HR than Posey last year. Now THAT is a rationalization.
18th Maicer Izturis, SS/2B TOR – Really the anti-Bonifacio pick. Just have no faith in Bonifacio. Not that Macier is great, but the rules say I need some MI-types. This is a winner if Toronto gives him 450 AB and eventually bats him second to take advantage of his contact/line-drive rate. Without those, he becomes FA fodder.
19th Wandy Rodriguez, SP PIT – OMG! Two Pirates pitchers! Am I insane! What is the legal limit on exclamation points! Safe pick here at sixth starter. Perhaps he and Burnett become trade bait. Lost his dominance a bit last year but gained some control. I hope he does not decline further.
20th Denard Span, OF WAS – Leadoff hitter for the Nationals not getting any love. Hitting in front of Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche. 30 SB, 100 runs scored, .280 BA out of the 20th round pick. Maybe?
21st Stephen Drew, SS BST – You mean I need more than one MI? Damn. May start the season on the DL. This is a good pick if that is the downside. That 15/15 guy is still in there somewhere.
22nd Gordon Beckham, 2B CHW – Upside if he finds his swing. Downside minors. Unlucky 25% hit rate last year. Ok, I admit it…I picked him because he played at Georgia.
23rd Ricky Nolasco, SP MIA – Where is the potential stud from a few years ago. Maybe he pitches well in the first half and the Fish trade him. Absolute gamble.
24th Lucas Duda, OF NYM – Probably the only steady playing time in the Mutt outfield. I was high on him last year. This year not so much.
25th Scott Baker, SP CHC – Nothing to see here but some crime scene chalk on the sidewalk. First drop.
26th Luke Gregerson, RP SD – Two way treat here. He or Street could be traded which means Luke has the chance finally to be a closer. Otherwise carries Streets’ bag until Street gets hurt and then becomes a closer.
27th Mike Zunino, C SEA – This one is for you, Greg.
28th Luis Cruz, SS/3B LAD – With Hanley out, guaranteed playing time. Will not do much with it. Bench meat in case nothing better is swimming in the FA pool.
29th David Phelps, SP NYY – Has to pitch better than Nova to stay in rotation. Not too bad in trial as a starter last year. Could be a very nice pick-up.
30th Johan Santana, SP NYM – How the mighty have fallen. Is there another half-year with great results? Certainly worth a peek.
That is it. Not as much power as I wanted. Could be good enough but not dominant power. Ended up with decent speed, so that much of the plan worked. Hurting bad in the middle infield and need to look for upgrades. Like most of my corners but you know the wussy at third base will hack me off before long. Satisfied with my closers and Gregerson. Top of the rotation sound and strikeout heavy. Middle solid, unspectacular. Not as much upside as I would have wanted, but a couple of Pirates traded to contenders would be nice. End pitchers a gamble and one has already gone bust.
As always, thanks to my league mates. I was warned that MtM was all business when the bell rang and they were right. Still, a very great pleasure to meet you. I do not think it is any stretch to say any and all of you have a great shot at finishing second in this league.
And you're right. All business, and don't you worry yourself about Darvish. In the fourth round and paired with Strasburg, I have a serious shot at 40 wins and 450+ K's with these two as my anchors. Look for my team to be at the top of the standings all year, and in competition for the overall title with a little waiver wire work. 
Wish I had more time to hang out with you and talk shop while I was there. Hope to see you out in Vegas again next year. Great post. 
. Making the right moves always seems to be the most difficult part of this game at times. To adding my own venting to your blog, I'm right there for this week in overreacting to Oak sitting BMoss vs. Lefties so far and benched him on my Main Event squad (as well as others, including our auction league) for his barrage this week. However, I have a plan for tonight to hope he saves some of the production for the weekend - start him in a FanDuel league tonight, as I never seem to win those. 
