Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Glenneration X » Fri May 03, 2013 9:36 pm

KJ Duke wrote:
Glenneration X wrote: I know some might feel me biased due to my recent gig with BHQ.
Glenn, I've never known you to be biased about anything! :lol:

I would observe that you, ehh, perhaps, at times, maybe, embrace bias ... but when you do, you're still smart enough not to let it influence your game. ;)

Let me guess the difference in that article if you had written it, rather than Schandler. You might talk about the same numbers and suggest that it's possible his numbers may not reach last year's. You would also talk about it being a month into the season and not reading too much into the slow start. And you'd also come across as humble, so not to disturb the fantasy gods and to set yourself up to look foolish if, say a month from now, Trout goes on a ridiculous tear. And one more difference - no one here would be bothered by a word you said, even if you were preaching to stay away from Trout this year.
And Trout hits a HR today. I guess the fantasy gods did answer. :o
Isn't it amazing how often things like that happen. :shock:

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by BK METS » Fri May 03, 2013 9:47 pm

However I do wonder if NFBC drafts were held today, if Trout would still be a unanimous top 3 pick.
In no specific order:

Miggy
Harper
Braun
Trout
Upton

And based upon Ron's sampling size, John Buck would be 6th :o :D

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by KJ Duke » Fri May 03, 2013 10:59 pm

BK METS wrote:
However I do wonder if NFBC drafts were held today, if Trout would still be a unanimous top 3 pick.
In no specific order:

Miggy
Harper
Braun
Trout
Upton

And based upon Ron's sampling size, John Buck would be 6th :o :D
And Yuni Betancourt would be 7th!

If we draft today, I'd probably go Miggy-1, Trout-2, Harper-3.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Outlaw » Sat May 04, 2013 6:28 am

KJ Duke wrote:
Hells Satans wrote:
KJ Duke wrote: His conclusion - that Trout is a disappointment after so few games is part of his "I'm a fantasy guru" BS. That's the part that bugs me, and you're right he's actually reducing his "numbers" credibility by not pointing that out.

Totally agree on the "fantasy guru BS" part... The thing about USA today is, it reaches a very wide audience, 99% of which think Ron is just another decent fantast reporter. If he "hits" on his Trout prediction that USA audienece will think, that guy knows what he's talking about. It's all about marketing. Normally that USA readership base would'nt know him from atom really. I will say I have bought is Forecaster book and its a great data reference tool.

The audience here on these boards might be a few hundred, but probably far less. Those that post here and converse and esposue thier Opinions do so for the fun of it. A lot of new NFBC players use these boards to learn from, I know I did. I would hate to see the posts and comments on this forum if other "experts" were mentioned here or other "expert" opnions posted. We could start with Dr. Roto, then the Oracle, then.....

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Glenneration X » Sat May 04, 2013 9:27 am

Outlaw wrote: I would hate to see the posts and comments on this forum if other "experts" were mentioned here or other "expert" opnions posted. We could start with Dr. Roto, then the Oracle, then.....
Let's not forget, there are more than a few industry "experts" that play here and whose work I personally both respect and enjoy. Ray Murphy, Jeff Erickson, Chris Liss, Derek Van Riper, Gene McCaffrey, Todd Zola, Perry Van Hook, Ryan Carey, Greg Morgan, Corey Schwartz, Nate Ravitz, Dave Shovein, Shawn Childs, etc. etc.

Some have had NFBC success over the years, others not as much. Yet several have been embraced as one of the NFBC's own, others left to just play, still others more of a lightning rod for criticism. The biggest lightning rod of all being Shandler. I'm not sure why. Maybe it's the biggest fish syndrome. Maybe it's that "experts" tag, though I never really understood what the big deal was with that moniker. Seriously, what kind of marketing tool would we prefer he use.... "We sort of know what we're doing but we're no better than anyone else. Please buy our product."

Either way, I know Shandler to be a supporter of the NFBC in his work and I've enjoyed his products over the years.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by BK METS » Sat May 04, 2013 9:46 am

Trout, 2 HRs, 2 triples, 1 double, and 8 RBIs in his last 4 games. And what a coincidence that it all started right at the time he began his season last year. Interesting. I think its time for me to write an article on "The turnaround of Mike Trout." :D

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat May 04, 2013 10:05 am

Glenneration X wrote: The biggest lightning rod of all being Shandler. I'm not sure why.
Because he wrote it.
As he would say, once a players displays a skill, he owns it'
Well, once a writer produces a story, he has to own it.
Nobody disagrees with Shandler's numbers. They're fine.
What is wrong is the timing. He struck while the iron was cold.

He compared five months of Trout stats to only one month this year.
It's not fair to Trout. And it's certainly not right for the experienced fantasy player.
It appeals to the Yahoo Kids.
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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by ToddZ » Sat May 04, 2013 10:27 am

Sigh.

All Ron did was point out Trout was very lucky with two specific metrics that involve some chance as well as some skill - BABIP and HR/FB - and the laws of probability suggested he would not be so lucky in those areas this season.

Through April, he has not been as lucky in those areas --- CASE CLOSED.

Ron isn't saying he was right. Ron is saying so far, Trout's BABIP and HR/FB are what they should be as dictated by probability.

Honestly gang, that's all he is saying.

It's as if Trout flipped heads 400 out of 500 times last year and so far in April, it's been 50 heads and 50 tails.

If someone were to say, "Trout will see his coin flips much closer to 50/50 next year" and they were indeed 50/50, the person was not "right", but Trout's results were as dictated by probability.
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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Outlaw » Sat May 04, 2013 10:31 am

Glenneration X wrote: Let's not forget, there are more than a few industry "experts" that play here and whose work I personally both respect and enjoy. Ray Murphy, Jeff Erickson, Chris Liss, Derek Van Riper, Gene McCaffrey, Todd Zola, Perry Van Hook, Ryan Carey, Greg Morgan, Corey Schwartz, Nate Ravitz, Dave Shovein, Shawn Childs, etc. etc.
Excellent point - I think this year I'm in a league with Liss, Erickson and maybe DVR, agreed, all great guys and the reason I joned those leagues.... Easy listens too, on XM... I should amend my feelings on "experts" to most experts arn't worth my time. Most of the guys mentioned above do play in NFBC and I do enjoy anything they post here and what they do opine about. Have to say though, that there are lot of "experts" i will not listen too ever, whether on TV, radio, print, web, here... over time we all form our opinions... Those 3 XM guys above though I always enjoy.... and for one big reason, they never come across as know it alls or are they abrasive....

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by TOXIC ASSETS » Sat May 04, 2013 10:40 am

Agree with Mr Zola. Let's just look at the numbers and the probabilities. Those that drafted Trout top 3 have been wrong so far. Will they continue to be wrong by the end of the year? Time will tell.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat May 04, 2013 10:43 am

ToddZ wrote:Sigh.

All Ron did was point out Trout was very lucky with two specific metrics that involve some chance as well as some skill - BABIP and HR/FB - and the laws of probability suggested he would not be so lucky in those areas this season.

Through April, he has not been as lucky in those areas --- CASE CLOSED.

Ron isn't saying he was right. Ron is saying so far, Trout's BABIP and HR/FB are what they should be as dictated by probability.

Honestly gang, that's all he is saying.

It's as if Trout flipped heads 400 out of 500 times last year and so far in April, it's been 50 heads and 50 tails.

If someone were to say, "Trout will see his coin flips much closer to 50/50 next year" and they were indeed 50/50, the person was not "right", but Trout's results were as dictated by probability.

It's not the numbers, Todd.
It's not Shandler saying he is right.

It's Shandler writing a story before its time.
It's no better than seeing a story that Justin Upton is on pace for 70 homers. Or that John Buck will make us forget about Johnny Bench.
It is simply to early to make comparisons, no matter what brackets of numbers is used in backing up the argument.

Cain, Hamels, and McCutchen are also off to slow starts.
Rosy pictures were all painted by Shandler for these players.
Shandler was the one who chose to do a story, a month into the season on Trout, who was predicted as a 'Regressive' by Shandler himself.
When bypassing players he predicted good years for and focusing on a player he projected regression for, in my mind, he invites criticism that 'he just wants to be right'.
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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by ToddZ » Sat May 04, 2013 10:49 am

No Dan. that's NOT what he is doing.

AT ALL.

But people are going to believe what they want to believe.
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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat May 04, 2013 10:51 am

ToddZ wrote:No Dan. that's NOT what he is doing.

AT ALL.

But people are going to believe what they want to believe.
I know that.
And you know that.
But, that it is what it looks like.
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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Glenneration X » Sat May 04, 2013 10:57 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Glenneration X wrote: The biggest lightning rod of all being Shandler. I'm not sure why.
What is wrong is the timing. He struck while the iron was cold.

And it's certainly not right for the experienced fantasy player.
It appeals to the Yahoo Kids.
Doughy, this is one of the issues I have with this thread. I highlighted just two parts of your post to make this last point.

I believe many here criticizing Shandler's article are looking at it from the narrow prism of an NFBC-er's eye. From that context, those who drafted Trout are stuck with him, for better or for worse. Therefore the Shandler article serves no benefit and appears only as an "I told you so" statement to those who play within the NFBC format.

However, while there may be thousands who play in the NFBC, there are millions who play fantasy baseball in other leagues and formats. The vast majority of those formats are trading leagues. While you say the timing is wrong and the iron is cold, that's only for leagues without trading like the NFBC. For those with trading, the timing is right and the iron is still very hot. As someone who used to play in trading leagues, now is the time you'd have to make the decision on whether to put Trout on the market to get full value. If he continues to regress as Shandler believes he will, his trading value regresses as well.

Shandler made his points on Trout before one game was played and Trout was the apple of everyone's draft eye. He gave us something to think about, whether we followed the advice or not. This is not jumping on the bandwagon after the train has already left the station (mixing of metaphors? sorry for that. :) ). He's reiterating his point now for many a player who still has an opportunity to trade Trout or trade for him, again giving them something to think about.

There are many experienced players who don't play the NFBC. I never even heard of the contest before the day I joined in 2009. Every fantasy article can't be geared towards the small fraction who play here. Some experienced players elsewhere may appreciate some thought evoking advice.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Outlaw » Sat May 04, 2013 11:03 am

It would be funny to watch the "experts" and "oracles" debate this amongst themselves....lol All I know is there is not one fantasy player in the world that would even consider benching Trout... unless he goes DL... or is not in a lineup on a particular day... I have Trout in a non NFBC (CBS) league and everyone wants to trade for him.... Not doing it, people read stuff like this article and think they can low ball.... Maybe I'll be wrong on not trading him, but he was my number 1 pick and I see no reason to trade him at all....

The whole purpose of the article and opinion is worthless to every fantasy player 1 month into the season IMO. "Experts"- please talk about something that matters right now... Any fantasy player worth his or her salt will anaylze Trout after the season is over....

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Glenneration X » Sat May 04, 2013 11:09 am

Outlaw wrote:It would be funny to watch the "experts" and "oracles" debate this amongst themselves....lol All I know is there is not one fantasy player in the world that would even consider benching Trout... unless he goes DL... or is not in a lineup on a particular day... I have Trout in a non NFBC (CBS) league and everyone wants to trade for him.... Not doing it, people read stuff like this article and think they can low ball.... Maybe I'll be wrong on not trading him, but he was my number 1 pick and I see no reason to trade him at all....

The whole purpose of the article and opinion is worthless to every fantasy player 1 month into the season IMO. "Experts"- please talk about something that matters right now... Any fantasy player worth his or her salt will anaylze Trout after the season is over....
I sat McCutcheon for a few games last week in one league and if not for a last minute injury was prepared to sit Kemp for a few games this week. I've sat other "unbenchable" players at times during my career playing this game. Maybe it's stupid, but I'm not averse to trying anything with my roster that I feel will benefit the team for the period I try it.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat May 04, 2013 11:10 am

Glenneration X wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Glenneration X wrote: The biggest lightning rod of all being Shandler. I'm not sure why.
What is wrong is the timing. He struck while the iron was cold.

And it's certainly not right for the experienced fantasy player.
It appeals to the Yahoo Kids.
Doughy, this is one of the issues I have with this thread. I highlighted just two parts of your post to make this last point.

I believe many here criticizing Shandler's article are looking at it from the narrow prism of an NFBC-er's eye. From that context, those who drafted Trout are stuck with him, for better or for worse. Therefore the Shandler article serves no benefit and appears only as an "I told you so" statement to those who play within the NFBC format.

However, while there may be thousands who play in the NFBC, there are millions who play fantasy baseball in other leagues and formats. The vast majority of those formats are trading leagues. While you say the timing is wrong and the iron is cold, that's only for leagues without trading like the NFBC. For those with trading, the timing is right and the iron is still very hot. As someone who used to play in trading leagues, now is the time you'd have to make the decision on whether to put Trout on the market to get full value. If he continues to regress as Shandler believes he will, his trading value regresses as well.

Shandler made his points on Trout before one game was played and Trout was the apple of everyone's draft eye. He gave us something to think about, whether we followed the advice or not. This is not jumping on the bandwagon after the train has already left the station (mixing of metaphors? sorry for that. :) ). He's reiterating his point now for many a player who still has an opportunity to trade Trout or trade for him, again giving them something to think about.

There are many experienced players who don't play the NFBC. I never even heard of the contest before the day I joined in 2009. Every fantasy article can't be geared towards the small fraction who play here. Some experienced players elsewhere may appreciate some thought evoking advice.
Your right, Glenn. And this morning I wrote a post mostly to remind myself that Shandler and others do not write for an NFBC'ers benefit, but for the myriad of other fantasy players.
We are under the NFBC Dome.
No trading allowed.
15 TEAMS premium.
12 TEAMS acceptable
10 TEAMS or less to be mocked. Pun not intended.

It is this reason why we separate ourselves from writers such as Ron. They write for the masses and when we see an article like the one on Trout, we take it personally.
We feel it is 'beneath him' to contrast a year's worth of stats to one month's.

But Shandler may see this as a help to 'traders' or other leagues where others play.
At the same time, it puts more space between Shandler's etchings and NFBC'ers. A space that seems to widen each year and I believe that is the reason why the 'Experts threads' spring up every once in awhile.

Fantasy baseball has become so splintered with different rules, different leagues, and different types, that a fantasy writer is very relevant for some, and not so for others.
I have to remember that.

Just an edit to this post-

Fantasy baseball has become so large. We have auctions. We have snakes. Leagues with anywhere from 6 to 15 teams.
Points, head to head, roto.
Trading. No trading. FAAB. No FAAB. Daily, biweekly, weekly moves.
Daily Leagues. Yearly leagues. Half year leagues.
It goes on and on.
Yet, we still have writers that do not write to specific leagues. They are all generalized.
Maybe the next step for fantasy baseball will be writers that specialize in certain facets or leagues of fantasy baseball. Instead of trying to please the masses and making the masses fit their square writings into their needed round hole.
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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by knuckleheads » Sun May 05, 2013 3:38 pm

Tom Kessenich wrote:Ron Shandler was one of the strongest critics of Mike Trout being a Top 3 fantasy pick this season. He has a column in USA Today explaining why Trout's current production should not be a surprise to anyone. Take a look.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/fa ... y/2121985/

And three days later, Mike Trout is now on pace for 30/118/123/30.

It's a good thing USA Today was able to run Shandler's column on Thursday. Had it gotten bumped to the Monday edition, it would have been completely outdated.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by knuckleheads » Sun May 05, 2013 3:47 pm

knuckleheads wrote:
Tom Kessenich wrote:Ron Shandler was one of the strongest critics of Mike Trout being a Top 3 fantasy pick this season. He has a column in USA Today explaining why Trout's current production should not be a surprise to anyone. Take a look.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/fa ... y/2121985/

And three days later, Mike Trout is now on pace for 30/118/123/30.

It's a good thing USA Today was able to run Shandler's column on Thursday. Had it gotten bumped to the Monday edition, it would have been completely outdated.

I am sure Glenn would like me to point out that Trout's batting average has normalized the past three days to .279, a number predicted by Shandler nearly to the digit. However, given that .279 is as close to .280 as one can bat in 129 at bats, this make Shandler perfect. The other batting averages available, but not chosen in Shandler's prophesy, were .287 and .271. All hail Shandler!
Last edited by knuckleheads on Sun May 05, 2013 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Outlaw » Sun May 05, 2013 3:48 pm

knuckleheads wrote:
Tom Kessenich wrote:Ron Shandler was one of the strongest critics of Mike Trout being a Top 3 fantasy pick this season. He has a column in USA Today explaining why Trout's current production should not be a surprise to anyone. Take a look.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/fa ... y/2121985/

And three days later, Mike Trout is now on pace for 30/118/123/30.

It's a good thing USA Today was able to run Shandler's column on Thursday. Had it gotten bumped to the Monday edition, it would have been completely outdated.

Classic- BTW the game is'nt over yet either...

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Driver Love » Sun May 05, 2013 6:24 pm

I am somewhat late to the game here. I wonder if the hostility toward a Shandler is born some from the fact all playing in this event consider themselves an "expert" on some level and have a mild hint of jealousy toward those who are deemed experts in the mainstream and have a platform to share their expertise? I am not knocking anyone who earlier in this thread took a mild shot at Shandler, (Though if I were to be honest I am more in the camp of or in agreement with Greg, Todd Zola and Glenneration)I am actually making a point that came to my head as I was about to type the following question.

Is it fair to say Shandler himself is not a skilled fantasy player based on one bad season in the NFBC? Or has he had a long history of poor results?

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by Glenneration X » Sun May 05, 2013 6:29 pm

knuckleheads wrote:I am sure Glenn would like me to point out that Trout's batting average has normalized the past three days to .279, a number predicted by Shandler nearly to the digit. However, given that .279 is as close to .280 as one can bat in 129 at bats, this make Shandler perfect. The other batting averages available, but not chosen in Shandler's prophesy, were .287 and .271. All hail Shandler!
No need to point this out for my sake. I'll on the other hand point out once again that I never stated that I agree with the Trout analysis. What I stated is that I understand it, respect it, and feel that it doesn't warrant derision of the likes that we've seen in this thread. However, when given the opportunity to pick Trout 3rd overall over for a Main Event, I did so. Ironically, it just so happens that it was for the team I am sharing with and covering for Baseball HQ.

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by knuckleheads » Sun May 05, 2013 6:55 pm

Driver,

Exacting projections are silly. However, among those who create exacting projections, Shandler's group is among the best. But still, they are not worth the effort that goes into them. I think Shandler gets so much grief because of the number of, and voracity of his devoted followers.

I believe he is getting so much grief on the Trout subject because he has made such an effort to deny the possible uniqueness of Trout's abilities. I read Shandler's preseason critique of Trout and I respect Shandler's analysis enough that I reconsidered whether I was wrong in having Trout in my Top 2. The more I looked into Trout's numbers and abilities, the clearer it became to me Trout should be the top pick in every draft. Not because of his ceiling, but because his floor seemed to be so much more stable than others'. His ceiling is unmatched, regardless of how unlikely it is he improves on last year.

I think what exasperated so many in the USA Today article is Shandler's claiming victory after an inning and half with a 1-0 lead. (That's about the equivalent to 1/6 of the season and Trout slightly off pace.)

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by BK METS » Sun May 05, 2013 7:25 pm

knuckleheads wrote:Driver,

Exacting projections are silly. However, among those who create exacting projections, Shandler's group is among the best. But still, they are not worth the effort that goes into them. I think Shandler gets so much grief because of the number of, and voracity of his devoted followers.

I believe he is getting so much grief on the Trout subject because he has made such an effort to deny the possible uniqueness of Trout's abilities. I read Shandler's preseason critique of Trout and I respect Shandler's analysis enough that I reconsidered whether I was wrong in having Trout in my Top 2. The more I looked into Trout's numbers and abilities, the clearer it became to me Trout should be the top pick in every draft. Not because of his ceiling, but because his floor seemed to be so much more stable than others'. His ceiling is unmatched, regardless of how unlikely it is he improves on last year.

I think what exasperated so many in the USA Today article is Shandler's claiming victory after an inning and half with a 1-0 lead. (That's about the equivalent to 1/6 of the season and Trout slightly off pace.)
Exactly

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Re: Shandler: Trout's Decline Was Expected

Post by KJ Duke » Sun May 05, 2013 7:57 pm

Driver Love wrote:Is it fair to say Shandler himself is not a skilled fantasy player based on one bad season in the NFBC? Or has he had a long history of poor results?
If you play one season, suck, quit, and continue to bill yourself as a guru it's a fair if not charitable assessment.

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