Bloomberg News, Washington Post Highlight NFBC Champ

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 5:38 am

It's good to see that Brian Oldenski, our 2005 NFBC champion, is getting good publicity before the start of the season. This story was written by Danielle Sessa of Bloomberg News last Thursday and was picked up by the Washington Post on Friday. Other newspapers have picked it up since then.

Here's the link to the story:

">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... w&refer=us>

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 5:39 am

If the link doesn't work, here's the story:

Merrill Fantasy Baseball Champ Says Twins' Santana Is Best Pick

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Fans of fantasy baseball, where major-league statistics determine team performance, may want to heed the advice of Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Brian Oldenski.

The analyst won $100,000 in a high-stakes league last year, and this season is building his squad around Minnesota Twins pitcher Johan Santana.

Oldenski chose Santana with his first pick this year, and said he would have taken him over Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees and Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals, last season's Most Valuable Players and the first two selections in his league and most others.

``People say pitchers get hurt often, so they avoid the risk,'' said Oldenski, 32, sitting in a hallway of the Hilton New York charging his laptop during a break in his draft. ``That's true, but I think Santana is a guy who can put up amazing numbers.''

About 7.5 million people will play this year, double from 1997, said Greg Ambrosius, president of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association. They will spend about $133.5 million with companies including CBS Corp.'s CBS SportsLine.com and Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN.com to track statistics and project players' performance.

``We are growing as an industry,'' Ambrosius said.

It's the busiest time of year for fantasy baseball. The Major League Baseball season starts April 2, and most private leagues are holding their drafts this week.

Fantasy Championship

Oldenski was one of about 150 people armed with laptops and spreadsheets at the midtown Manhattan hotel on March 18 for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. The contest has 330 teams this year, up from 195 during its first season two years ago. Each of the 22 leagues has 15 teams and the person with the top overall score at the end of the season wins $100,000.

Each owner paid $1,250 to select a team of 30 Major League Baseball players that will earn points based on 10 statistical categories that include wins, home runs and stolen bases. It's run by Ambrosius and Iola, Wisconsin-based Krause Publications, which owns about 40 hobby magazines with topics ranging from hunting to fantasy sports.

Oldenski, who works at Merrill's office at the World Financial Center in Manhattan, won the tournament last year with a team he called ``Moneymaker.'' He wouldn't be specific about his job at the world's biggest securities firm by market value.

This year, he bypassed players including Los Angeles Angels outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, the 2004 Most Valuable Player, and Boston Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez, a nine-time All Star, to take Santana with the fourth overall pick. The 2004 Cy Young Award winner won 16 games last season and led the American League with 238 strikeouts. Oldenski used his second pick on Juan Pierre, an outfielder for the Chicago Cubs who has stolen at least 45 bases five years in a row.

Too Much Power

Relying on home-run hitters such as Guerrero and Ramirez is a common mistake of fantasy players, Oldenski said. Players who steal bases and hit for a high average like Pierre -- a career .305 batter -- are more valuable, he said.

``They equate the home run with the touchdown,'' he said. ``They think the home run is everything, but I think in the scoring system, the most scarce commodity is stolen bases.''

Using that system, Oldenski developed his own formula to predict performance and how many points each player would generate for his fantasy team. After running the numbers on 500 major leaguers, Santana came out as most valuable and Pierre No. 2.

Players with the first two picks in other drafts at the Hilton didn't agree with Oldenski. Rodriguez and Pujols were the Nos. 1 and 2 selections in all eight leagues.

Oldenski also picked relievers Francisco Rodriguez of the Angels and Francisco Cordero of the Texas Rangers within the first five rounds.

``Closers are so scarce,'' he said. ``Rodriguez, I projected by far to have the most saves, and closers can run off the board quick, so I decided to lock him in.''

Hands-On Scouting

While Oldenski pores over spreadsheets and concocts formulas to select players, New Jersey mortgage broker John Wojtowicz travels to Florida each spring to do his own scouting.

He said he tries to use his experience as a college baseball player at Seton Hall University to help his fantasy team.

``If I am reading the same thing as everyone else is reading, where is my advantage?'' asked Wojtowicz, 45, of Cranford, Connecticut. ``My experience and my advantage is that I played in college.''

His advice this year: Avoid Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida, ranked by Baseball America magazine as the fourth-best prospect, because he doesn't hit many line drives or pull the ball with power. Wojtowicz was impressed with Florida's Mike Jacobs, a first baseman, who he says may hit .300 with 30 home runs this year.

Oldenski, meanwhile, said he's hoping his draft was successful because he doesn't plan to tweak his roster much this season.

``I have two kids so I try not to get too obsessed,'' said Oldenski, who has a 19-month old boy and less-than-one-month old girl. ``I usually do the draft and then try and go on auto- pilot.''

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 5:51 am

Who can argue with his success...but there were some surprise comments...

"After running the numbers on 500 major leaguers, Santana came out as most valuable and Pierre No. 2."

"Avoid Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida"

"...he doesn't plan to tweak his roster much this season."

``I usually do the draft and then try and go on auto- pilot.''

Quite interesting.

~Lance

Lost Sailor · Post by **Lost Sailor** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:18 am

Published by the WP? Very cool, Greg.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:23 am

Greg any word on when and if the writer who was present in Tampa is going to write something?

Also how about some new pictures- Don Mathis is quite the handsome man but we now have had about 375 straight days of him.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:13 am

I may have been misquoted. I surely would have drafted A-Rod or Pujols over Santana, and I think I said this to the Bloomberg writer.

The Hermidia statement was made by the other guy who was interviewed. I would have taken him in the right spot without hesitation.

As for "going on auto-pilot" -- we're all busy. I think I made about 20 moves all of last season; with two young kids and a couple of trips planned for this summer, I hope to be able to avoid digging through waiver info as much as possible again.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:14 am

I may have been misquoted. I surely would have drafted A-Rod or Pujols over Santana, and I think I said this to the Bloomberg writer.

The Hermidia statement was made by the other guy who was interviewed. I would have taken him in the right spot without hesitation.

As for "going on auto-pilot" -- we're all busy. I think I made about 20 moves all of last season; with two young kids and a couple of trips planned for this summer, I hope to be able to avoid digging through waiver info as much as possible again.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:39 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Greg any word on when and if the writer who was present in Tampa is going to write something?

Also how about some new pictures- Don Mathis is quite the handsome man but we now have had about 375 straight days of him. That was a writer from ESPN The Magazine. John said he had a great time in Tampa and interviewed a lot of die-hard fantasy players. He said the story looks good and it should hit the magazine soon. It was pushed back a week and maybe two, but it should run soon. I'll e-mail him to find out for sure and post the article here when I get it.

Yes, I'm compiling the photos now. First things first and getting all of the lineups in took precedence. We now have the leagues going well and we'll update the site with new photos and a picture of Brian Oldenski with the crystal trophy soon. We're also working on the video and will have that up soon. All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time!

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 8:07 am

I agree with Santana's projected value as near numero uno (depending on your model and projections), but I have a hard time figuring out how Pierre becomes #2. Did they misquote you on that?

I've got him with the following projections:

669 102 2 55 54 0.301

My model brings him in at #35, but I would agree with taking him in the 20-25 range because of SPEED.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 8:22 am

I had Pierre ranked very high. Not number 2 though.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:15 am

I hate to say it, but your lack of power is going to make for a long season. I don't agree with your plan. After Santana, you don't have one starter that can stikeout over 150. So whatever advantage you had, you gave it away filling your staff. There is so much risk up and down your line-up. I can't understand why you got off of Crawford. He would have been a much better piece to the puzzle at the 4th pick.

Moneymaker · Post by **Moneymaker** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 12:07 pm

You called it. I definitely would have went with Crawford if I didn't have any doubts about his wrist.

I'm in a tough league and I had to take what the table was giving me; it wasn't power.