Edwards Kings Main Event Blog

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good read and we sure are different, Wayne

[Edwards Kings]

Thanks Dan. I glad you enjoy reading my dribblings and I certainly enjoy your view of the fantasy baseball universe.

I wrote much more, but you took most of your excellent comments away!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Dan. I glad you enjoy reading my dribblings and I certainly enjoy your view of the fantasy baseball universe.

I wrote much more, but you took most of your excellent comments away!

My reply was long-winded

I do enjoy your work and marvel at how differently we approach this game.....good stuff

[Edwards Kings]

I haven’t had a chance to really do more on my team lately but check in on results, check the board for some quick-hit reading, and slide in a few comments. The real world sucks sometimes (i.e. I am made to actually work) and this has been some of those times and will continue to be for a while. I finally got to the great state of Wisconsin during my recent work travels. Thought about popping in to Iola, then realized how far Iola was from Waukesha. I was only there a couple of days. There is a chance I may have to be up there again, maybe for a longer stretch and hopefully I can take a run up-state and say hello to Greg and Tom in the penthouse of the NFBC Towers. And while I was up there this time, the Brewers would not even accommodate playing when I could attend. Like I said, sometimes the real world sucks.

A little different slant as there is not much to add about my team. Offense still needs to bust a move in order for my team to be a serious contender. Pitching still performing well enough to matter, especially among the starters. In other words, status quo. The warm comfortable arms of overall mediocrity has gripped my team.

My slant here will be around one of the NFBC's favorite conversations, free agent bidding. A few weeks ago, in a discussion about free agents, I was admonished by a friend for…well…my cheapness in FA bidding. I respect this persons opinion greatly and take all advice exactly in the spirit it was intended. I also hope I continue to get advice from my NFBC friend (actually, all of them), even if I will not always accept the advice. I know I have been a consistent performer in the NFBC. Consistently bad that is. But I still have to be what I am…cheap! Well, maybe I would say “frugal”…”reasoned”…”proactive rather than reactive”. I guess I recognize there are a lot of reasons why I am not in that top tier of performers. Some of the culprits could be draft prep, draft execution, in-season management, poor eating habits, bad haircuts, lack of fashion sense, and internet porn addiction. But I honestly do not think one of them is my approach to free agents and the bidding for them. Sure I have made mistakes, but jumping into the big dollar lotteries usually is not one of them.

Not meant to call out any teams or pass judgment on the owners strategies, I looked at all $100+ winning bids so far this year from my league (Las Vegas March 23 League 5) to see if I honestly missed the boat on players who could honestly help my team. Some of the basic numbers are:

1) There have been 238 winning bids so far in 2013.
2) There have been 20 bids (8.4%) over $100.
3) Those 20 bids have used up $4,074 or 27.2% of available FA budgets.
4) Fifteen of the top 20 bids were for pitchers (six closers, nine starters).
5) Of the five top 20 bids that were for batters, three were for outfielders.
6) Seven owners still have more than half their FA budget left.
7) One owner has less than $10 left.

I am one of those with more than half my FA money left and I sit mid-pack. I guess it is not a good sign for the rest of the league that five of the seven who have more than half left sit in the top five spots in the league. I think that is an anomaly, but it could make sense. Why would these guys need to make huge bids when there teams are already doing well? As it is, only three of the top 20 winning bids have been made by one of those teams with so much money left (one each). I was not one of them. My highest bid came this past week ($84 on Francisco Rodriguez with a $42 runner up bid).

Of those top 20 expensive winning bids, six of the players have already been put on the bricks. They were:

Jackie Bradley, Jr. – The “Jr.” is important lest we mistake him for Jackie Bradley, Sr. Dropped like a cheap pair of socks. Left his owner with a pricey ten AB, no hits and one run. Looks like he will be called back up. Wonder what he will go for now.

Chris Heisey – Always generates interest. Unfortunately for his owner, this was not one of his “hot” streaks (55 AB, 10 hits, 5 R, 3 RBI, and one each dinger and SB).

Kelvin Herrera – Closer gamble that didn’t pan out (used on for 2.0 IP but did get a save)

Carlos Marmol – Wildman of West Addison. Been up and down on fantasy rosters more than my cousin Edna would be up and down at a buffet table. Typical. Had a save for this owner in 4.0 IP with no ERA and a 2.00 WHIP due to six walks.

Garrett Richards – Had one great start, then hammered twice before going to the bullpen. Might have been a nice gamble, just too damn hittable.

Brandon Maurer – Ouch. Just ouch. Had 18 earned runs and 26 hits in 16.7 IP over four starts for this owner.

There are three batters still on teams (for now):

Travis Hafner – The big boy came out hot and still puts the ball a long way from home plate when he guesses right (3 HR, 10 R, 15 RBI), but the 0.221 BA is a drag. Has a stolen base, so miracles do happen. Big Tex and Youkiwussy soon to be back, so DH AB may be harder to come by.

Drew Stubbs – Perennial “what if”. The 0.257 OBP while this owner has had him in proves you still cannot steal first base (31 K’s in 95 AB to go with 5 BB). When he is on he can steal (4). Like Hafner, the 0.221 BA makes you wonder why he keeps getting chances, in the real world especially.

Dee Gordon – This is the one. My MI is so weak weekly, my friend is of the opinion I should have taken the chance and been very aggressive for this player because he had such impact potential. A very good owner got him for over $200, which I just do not think I would have ever considered (to my detriment or no). Batting average looks like my sons weight…when he was twelve. Like Stubbs, the 0.226 OBP with a BA so far below the Mendoza line as to be sickening means Gordon has failed at the MLB level…again. Soon to be sent down.

Of the pitchers still on rosters, there are seven starter types including hot picks like Jose Fernandez (8 starts, 2 wins, 39 K’s, a 4.573 ERA and 1.379 WHIP over 41.3 IP), Kevin Gausman (just picked up and I will not rub any salt in that wound), and Tony Cingrani (an unlucky one win in five starts, but an excellent 3.536 ERA, 0.929 WHIP and 33 K’s in 28.0 IP but the Reds decided to keep Leake so Tony goes to the minors). These studs went to three owners who collectively spent $1,312 on them. I miss out on some young talent because of my inability to pull the trigger on guys like this. They can pay off, but the risk of blowing up, coming up on bad teams, innings limits, and minor league assignments mean I am more than likely to grab these guys for the stretch run. Am I wrong? Probably though there are clearly more misses than hits.

As well there are retreads like Jorge De La Rosa, David Phelps, Chris Capuano, and Scott Kazmir. I streamed Kazmir myself a few weeks ago and Phelps has not been too bad. This year, as far as starters go, I may only do some streaming as my rotation has presented strong so far (luck counts), so I do not have to (yet) play in the deeper pool of big bucks for starting pitching. Might keep me out of trouble.

There are four closer types still on rosters too. Three may end up being worth the money (Bailey, Valverde, and Mujica who is probably the strongest pick-up of the year). And they should give their owners something as collectively they cost $649. Junichi Tazawa is still on a team and that may yet pay off if Bailey cannot handle it. Here it could definitely be said that I could jump in as my closers are hurt, underperforming or both.

So there you have it. A small scale analysis of one leagues big ticket free agents. There may be three players (all closers) really providing stats (or still could) for their owners. You may be able to add Cingrani to the list if weren’t already in the minors. At least 75% of this big ticket puchases have been mediocre at best and flops at worst. You have to take chances, but you also have to have at least some better odds of succeeding.

But all of this just proves the best point my friend made to me. I have an analytic mind and I can ALWAYS find at least 10 reasons NOT to do something. That is not the trick, finding a reason not to do something. The trick is finding the right single reason to pull the trigger. If you (or really I) don’t, you end up trying to get Greg to cash out your unused FA budget in October.

Maybe that should be my rule suggestion…change them so you can carry over your prior year unused budget? Any chance?

[Glenneration X]

Maybe that should be my rule suggestion…change them so you can carry over your prior year unused budget? Any chance?

This was a very interesting read Wayne. However, as far as the rule suggestion goes....I vote No.

[headhunters]

glen -life is good in met-town. up 5-0. beat mo last night. world series next.

[Glenneration X]

glen -life is good in met-town. up 5-0. beat mo last night. world series next.

I agree Mike, it's destiny.

[Edwards Kings]

As well there are retreads like Jorge De La Rosa, David Phelps, Chris Capuano, and Scott Kazmir. I streamed Kazmir myself a few weeks ago and Phelps has not been too bad.

Ummm...about that Phelps comment...there is at least one team in NY that loves him....

[Edwards Kings]

Maybe that should be my rule suggestion…change them so you can carry over your prior year unused budget? Any chance?

This was a very interesting read Wayne. However, as far as the rule suggestion goes....I vote No.

Sure...fine...abandon me when I am down...

[Edwards Kings]

How ya’ll been? Any of you that have been in the path of those horrific storms, I hope all is well with you and yours.

Summer and its wonderful warmth has arrived in Georgia so my wife has decided that we are going to vacation next week in San Francisco (insert Mark Twain quote here). Might be the last chance for all of us to take one of these vacations together as by next year both of my kids will be in college. I love my kids with everything I have and I was expecting mixed emotions as we move to the land of empty nesters. So far, however, the emotions have been decidedly one-sided (YIIIPPPPPEEEEEEE!). We will see if that hold up as I place my size 12 on my son’s backside to help him head off to whichever institution of higher social aptitude he decides to attend.

Baseball? What baseball? Oh yeah, that institution that tells you on June 7th that your pitchers ailment is minor and that expectations are that he will make his next start, only to place him (Wandy) on the DL June 11th (i.e. Tuesday). Damn I hate Pirates. Might not be all their fault as I have been too busy to be as thorough as I would want to be. That is (real) life. I am not one of those Dorito-munching sages with too much time on his hands. Gotta pay for college.

My league right now has four horses, as of today ranging from 106.0 to 115.5 points. Then there are a couple of other contenders hanging out in the low 90’s. Then there are four of us stuck in the middle. It is kind of funny. Bob Particelli, Chad Schroeder, Donn Johnson and I fluctuate a few points one side or the other of 80, leapfrogging each other as if we are at fourth grade recess. Every once in a while one of us will make a run at the 90’s, get tired, and fall back. Those guys have more balanced teams than I do (I have good pitching, no bats). I do not know really what that means, but you would think they have the better base and the better chance to make a run.

My friend Massotto (catchy title for a sitcom) is going to have to amuse himself (insert your own joke here) with his other teams on Sunday night as he is slap out of FA money. He locked down his roster last week with Juan Francisco and Tommy Hanson, two ex-Braves, so at least he has taste.

Since my last blog/rant about free agents, I finally jumped into the deep end with a $225 winning bid on Nick Franklin. Several teams in my league have MI issues (either injuries or just general suckyness), so I was a little surprised that the runner up bid was only $80. Looking at all the winning bids for the Main Event, it turns out I was not the highest, but certainly on the high end. Of the 29 winning bids on Franklin, ranging from $27 to $333, twelve bids were less than $100, thirteen between $100 and $200, and four over $200. Still, I have no buyers remorse (yet). My need was extreme and Franklin hopefully can help me with speed and even the occasional pop. Seattle must think so because Ackley has been getting some playing time in LF in Tacoma. Franklin also already has dual eligibility (SS/2B), too, which is nice.

I got Gordon Beckham back (both from the FA pool for $11 on May 19th and the DL). In the less than two weeks that he has been back he has hit for good average, stolen two bases, and scored some runs. With Stephen Drew (Mr. Hot-n-Cold) as my third MI and Brian Dozier as my back-up, there is still room for improvement.

Where is Hosmer’s power? Ok, expecting more than 20 is looking like a pipe-dream, but while his average is on the climb finally, he has one freakin’ HR this year. C’MON! Grow a pair will you! I guess no one will ever accuse him of PED use. Why do I get the feeling this guy is going to have a hot September and be all the buzz as a “sleeper” next year? All yours…he will not be on my team next year. When (if?) Hart ever comes back, Hosmer could end up in my Utility position rotation.

Votto is a bit of an enigma to me. He had a hot streak, power-wise, at the end of May with six HR in three weeks, then nothing. Another mini-streak keeps him in the running for 30+ dingers, but the really strange thing is he is scoring way more runs than landing RBI’s. Coming out of the three-hole with no dominate clean-up hitter, that is surprising. I will take it, but would love to see more HR/RBI (who wouldn’t?).

My last corner is between Youkilis and Chris Johnson. Johnson is coming back to earth, and Youkilis is due in the maternity ward any time. I still have just over 40% of my FA budget left. Some of it will go here to try and get some production here.

My Outfield has been pretty disappointing, too, outside of Fowler, who could be a 25/25 guy this year, though more than likely will end up closer to 20/20. Still, not bad for a 14th rounder. Cespedes has been both a little unlucky and a little hurt. Not the impact player I was hoping for out of the second round. The only good thing I can say is that the other OFer I was looking at as my anchor was Heyward. Aoki in most regards is what I was looking for, but 40 SB ain’t gonna happen as he only has six so far. Denard Span has reminded me of a poor man’s David Dejesus. No sure how long I will stick with his twice-monthly stolen base trend. Equally disappointing is Andre Ethier. Talk about taking the money and tanking. Dodgers can’t seem to wait to get rid of him. Maybe a change of scenery will help. And Lucas “Solo-HR” Duda. He has been batting 4th/5th lately, which is an improvement, but if anyone could hit 10 HR and get 9 RBI’s doing it, it would be Duda. He mainly hangs out as my UT. As my team continues to get healthier, he may go into OF full-time. He is better than Ethier/Span.

Catcher…screwed up in reverse here if Zunino hits. Wieters was supposed to be my anchor and is right now barely a top-15 catcher. I got Saltalamacchia for his 20 HR pop to keep the bench warm until Zunino showed up. His better than expected (i.e. probably lucky) batting average could make him a top 10 catcher if he keeps it up. In short, right now I have an extra catcher which to me is a wasted roster spot.

Injuries have started taking its toll on my pitchers. With Wandy, Street, and Putz down, I basically have no reserve pitchers thanks to my catcher dilemma. Gregerson has pitched his way into a platoon and Francisco Rodriguez is setting up (odds are Milwaukee will trade him before July 31 if I can wait that long). As a result, I am bottom feeding saves.

Scherzer, Lynn, Hamels (finally with the exception of that anomaly against the Brewers), and Burnett are keeping my non-save counting stats and averages very good (though I need to shave some ERA off before it is too late). The rest however, are scary. I cut bait on Chacin who has been too hittable and not exhibiting the same dominance he had before the injury. Nolasco stunk it up last time out (Brewers again), but has value to a better team and is trade bait. Gallardo has been up and down the same way a body goes up and down when the EMT’s apply the paddles. Not what I expected out of the third starter spot in my rotation. He sure dominated the Marlin’s the last time out though. I bet he is the only pitcher to do that this year! I need Street, Putz, and Wandy back. Until them, I am having to stream at least one of my pitching slots.

In short, not close to where I wanted to be at this time of the year and running out of time already. Still, there is a faint pulse.

Dr. Kessenich: I have good news and bad news.

Patient (Edwards Kings): What is the bad news?

Dr. Kessenich: Your team sucks and Mikey the Mouth will still probably finish ahead of you even though he has no money.

Patient: Good lord! What is the good news?

Dr. Kessinich: You have a really cool jersey to go with your hat.

[Billyhaze]

any updates?

[Edwards Kings]

Thanks for asking. I haven’t written much about my Main Event Team lately. Three reasons…ungodly busy (my company has a May 31st year end, which is always fun for us bean counters), followed by vacation (given the ages of my children this was probably one of the last “family” vacations we will be able to take and we took San Francisco…if any of my NFBC brethren live in that area you are lucky people…great city!), and mainly because my team is just bad. I think of my team this year probably as about two-thirds of us think about our teams. If we are not in the money hunt (some of us can get hot and climb into contention, but most of us not), we wonder what the hell happened to all those “informed” choices we made in our drafts.

Anyway, apart from a couple of starting pitchers who have produced very well, my team is a huge collection of humps. But it is no use to bitch about them. I was stupid enough to draft them and most of them are still better than the village of the damned that is the available FA pool. So rather than just bitch about my team, the under-performers, the injuries (we all have had multiple injuries this year, so except for extreme cases, we cannot use injuries as an excuse…after all it was me who believe Corey Hart who said he would be back in April…btw…Corey is Hump #1 in my book), and the bad luck, I want to look at what I can do to be one of the few has-been teams who can at least get in the game to make some of the probably money winners sweat a little. Depending on which list you read, there are between five and seven stages of grief. For the NFBC, I think there are four. Hope (after the draft and probably deluded), realization (oh, shit, I passed on Chris Davis), reassessment (where I am now and like deluded as well) and spoiler (screw you…I have more money than you and I am going to steal your streaming pitchers).

I am in stage four. Except for some perverse, unintended contest between Chad Schroeder’s team and my team to which one will finish in that “coveted” 10th place (hey, at least is not the bottom third, just the bottom of the second third!) because we leap frog over each other at least three times weekly, there just is not a hell of a lot more I can do for my team. We have about ten full weeks left. September is not a month to make a move typically because AB start getting squeezed and pitchers get extra rest or shut down entirely on MLB teams that are basically to the stage of having 2014 tryouts. That leaves maybe six good weeks to bust a move. Given the categories my team is last or near last in (HR, RBI, Saves), I really am going to have a hard time staying in the 70-80 point range in my league. Not giving up…don’t do that…ever. But it is kind of like men and sex in relation to age progression from young to middle age to old…tri-weekly; try weekly; and try weakly. Unless a miracle Viagra pill hits my team, my efforts will not have too much impact on the current contest.

As to FA money, the bids are slowing down as expected. July is actually a decent month for some bargains kind of like irregular socks in the basement of the department store. I mean, no one is really going to notice them, right? The bargains may be there because I am guessing, in your league like mine, at least a third of the teams have less than $100 to spend and you need SOME money in September if to do nothing else but stream a few pitchers. If you are sitting on $200-$250, you have about $20 or so to spend each week. With that, you can get pretty much any player you want. You are still going to lose out from time to time to one of those teams that still has $300+, but in general your bids will go unopposed The big buck guy in my league this week was Henry Urrutia who could end up getting the most AB in a Baltimore DH platoon. Could be a real nice pick that was not too expensive ($39), but there were no other bids this week that even touched $20. Out of the 17 players picked up, only five had at least one runner-up bid and three of those were $1.

As for me, I am able to go after pretty much who I want (fifth most money) and lately have been making sure I can field a team in the absence of impact potential players. In the most recent weeks I have picked up Drew (back-up MI-type), Eduardo Nunez (playing pretty much every day and at least giving me some BA help right now), and Lonnie Chisenhall (same deal and occasional pop). I have enough pitching right now so I am not planning on taking the risk of streaming and one of them, Nolasco, has moved to a better situation recently (OK, the Dodgers may be playing barely .500 ball, but they are at least in contention). I wonder where Gallardo will land as he is another player on contenders radar. I am kicking myself for having both FRod and Benoit at one time and letting them go after they lost their closing jobs. I had too many DL’s at that time and therefore lost the chance to hold one or both as investments to maybe move off the bottom of the pack in saves.

One more thing about my league. We have a real dog-fight at the top between the Scott’s (Jenstad and Vetter). Both have done great and have great teams. Both also have $300+ in FA money left, so while I sit in the cheap seats eating stale popcorn and flat beer, they are going to provide a first-class show down to the wire. And they cannot forget Steve Wells (9.0 points off) and J.T. Visco (back another 10.0 points but with nearly $400 left).

Congrats to all those in real contention and good luck on the home stretch!

[Edwards Kings]

Now a break from all normal format of all PED all the time! (Just kidding...great commentary on yet another topic I was way wrong about)

Four months in and like most of us, I am not pleased. I have had some injuries, but unlike many of you, I cannot claim that I was worse hit than what I expect is the norm for all of us this year. Injuries mainly limited my bench, but except for Yuckilis, Du(nothing)da, Wandy Rodriguez and J.J. (aptly named) Putz, my teams injuries have not been crushing type. I almost wish there were…it would give an excuse other than owner-error.

Not to throw caution to the wind, challenge fate, or drink Jobu’s rum, I have actually had some stability. I have been able to use Matt Wieters and Jarrod Saltalamacchia all year. I had hoped for that breakout all the pundits (and me) have been hoping/expecting for years from Wieters. Maybe he will be a late bloomer like Yadier Molina, but 2013 ain’t it. A 0.245 BA will not make him a worth wile top catcher pick because it will keep him from hitting up in the lineup (mostly hitting sixth) which means fewer runs and fewer RBI’s. I drafted Zunino under the hopes of him replacing Salty, but Zunino hasn’t hit, is hurt, and Jarrod has actually outplayed Wieters fantasy-wise in my opinion. YTD BA of 0.256 with 40 runs, 50 RBI’s through July 28th is actually a plus to what I expected from Jarrod. Good old ex-Brave farm-hand. To date I have two top 15 catchers point wise and could, with a small hot streak from them both, end up with both in the top 10, but no breakouts.

For first base and the cornerman, I have had Votto and Hosmer all year. Dan Kenyon has definitively proven that Votto deserves first round consideration next year, but me? I am disappointed. Sure, he is not having the HR upswing I had hoped for (he should end up somewhere in the mid-20’s rather than the mid-30’s like I pipe-dreamed), but how in the hell does someone batting 0.316 out of the third spot in the line-up in Cincy only have 47 RBI’s? Maybe he should take some more pitches to up his quality AB’s!

Hosmer has finally given some indication these last few weeks that there is indeed at least some hair on his ass. WHOOOHAAA! He has double digit HR! I sure am glad I picked him over Chris Davis! I hate to admit it, but I would have picked Ike Davis if he had dropped to me, so at least that is something. He has his average up to 0.284 (as of last Sunday) and has seven stolen bases. Still…Chris Davis…damn!

See what happens when I do not feed my third-base fetish early? I go through Youkilis, Izturis, Francisco, Chavez (a few days) and Chisenhall. Getting at least some batting average now that I have Chris Johnson in the spot. Otherwise, the position is a hole for me.

I knew middle infield was going to be an issue for me. I knowingly sacrificed MI in the early rounds to lock up power (HA!) and my starting pitching. I spent big on Nick Franklin and he has given me some stability out of one of the spots, but it is too little too late. None of the middle or late round gambles (and I really thought I could get at least decent production from a couple) paid off. Gordon Beckham has been given significant AB to prove how mediocre he truly is. I will not have him next year, so he should break out. Steven Drew is a shell, but I have used him. And Dozier, Izturis, Betancourt, Cruz, Amarista, Nunez, Nix, Charlie Chaplin, Wes Farrell, the kid in the wheelchair from “Glee”, and Fozzy Bear at the various positions with predictable results. A gross misread by me. Outside of Franklin, no speed, no power, no BA.

For outfield, I went with one big “power” bat in Yomama Cespedes. Unfortunately, Home-Run Derby dingers don’t count. I grabbed another high-BA, middling power bat in Andre Ethier. Strike two. Now I need speed. Aoki (OK Aoki), Fowler, and Span (doooh!). The good news is they have been healthy. The bad news is they have been healthy so I have over 1,800 at-bats worth of very mediocre stats.

I did not have many expectations for Utility. I just targeted about 15 HR (may get it) and enough BA, Runs, and RBI’s not to be a drain. With Duda, Johnson, Zunino, Chisenhall, and Lough it hasn’t happened. It is sad when you cannot wait for Duda to get back.

According to the NFBC, I have the best pitcher in the game this year in Scherzer. OK, I agree. He has just been consistently dominant. If he keeps this up, he will be a first rounder next year. Fortunately, he was my second pitcher. Cole Hamels was my first. End of July, four wins. Started out poorly, but has pitched better, especially in July. But June and July combined have three of the wins. My number three has pitched like Number Two. Yougly Gallardo is on the DL now so I can only hope for one of those magical end of the season dominate runs so we can all talk next year about how he changed his approach/trainer/routine/pitch selection/shoes/underwear/Biogenesis Rep/diaper rash medication or whatever and he can be someone’s sleeper. Lance Lynn was a great #4 for three months. Very cold in July though he pitched well in a tough start in Pittsburgh (one ER, no win of course) this week to get the week started well. A.J. Burnett said early in the season he may consider retirement, and then proceeded to pitch so far this year like he wants another ridiculous contract. Including his start this week, he has a 2.904 ERA, a decent 1.221 WHIP, fewer hits than IP, more K’s than IP, and a nearly 3:1 K to BB ratio. Four wins…and it is not like Pittsburgh sucks this year. Until he was hurt, Wandy Rodriguez was solid. Good ERA, WHIP, won half his games. Not bad for a #6. Ricky Nolasco has been my #7 most of the year. For the year for me, he has a 3.660 ERA and a 1.247 WHIP. I certainly have had worse at the end of my rotation. Due to injuries and trying to do a little match-up magic, I have also used Jhoulys Chacin for ten starts, which he won four of them, with a 3.358 ERA and 1.259 WHIP. Others I have used, with mixed results include one start each for Kyle Gibson (can I get my money back, please), Blake Beavan (disaster), Dallas Keuchel (five earned runs but 15 K’s!), Jon Pettibone (great), Scott Kazmir (great), and Chad Gaudin (only 4 1/3, but OK). In short, Gallardo and Hamels have been a drag while Scherzer is the anchor and the middle-to-end of the rotation has been quality.

Now to the closers. Neither Huston Street of J.J. Putz have given me enough to even keep me in the middle of the pack in saves. And they are both drags on my ERA and WHIP (aren’t closers supposed to help in those categories). But actually, that is not what has hacked me off the most. I had Uehara and Francisco Rodriguez and let them go. And Gregorson was not traded. Just another miss for my team.

Maybe we need another piece of slang for our NFBC dictionary. Next year, after you look at the other teams, and you see one set to be so decidedly average, you can say “Man, he really Wayned that one up good!”

[Edwards Kings]

It is the end of the season. It is great to see Dan and Ken having such a phenomenal year. Couldn't happen to nicer guys. Mr. Dobies is having both good and bad luck. Good luck being in second in the overall at this time of the year. Bad luck being second in the overall AND second in the individual league. Absolutely amazing. Scott "Oaktown" Jenstad is kicking my butt again in my league as well as hanging around the top five. Another great guy enjoying the rarefied air.

Before I begin my annual off-season of preparations as well as rebuilding the delusional expectations that next year will be "my" year, I wanted to look at what I wrote after my Main Event draft. What missed, what didn't. This will therefore be a long post. Go get a Coke and Moonpie (if you do not know what a Moonpie is, ask Ken Norred...a good Bama boy like him was probably raised on them like a good Jawja boy like me was...MtM...just think of a Moonpie as kind of a cannoli, only better) as this will take a while and you might get hungry. For most of us, as far as baseball goes, we do not have anything better to do anyway!

"I use NFBC ADP’s a great deal in developing my strategy especially as it relates to what I will probably have to give up to take a certain player at a certain time, who is moving up over the off-season, what depth in the talent pool is most represented at the various stages of the draft. I do not use ADP’s as a valuation tool (i.e. this guy is going in the third round so he MUST be good), but rather how I want my draft to flow to pick up the stats I need."

ADP's have been roundly poo-poo'd this year, but I still think they have value. Establishing the probability of who you can get and when helps with opportunity cost. I think it helps you not leave anything on the table. Of course, I only use the NFBC ADP's. Since the contestants and the contest are both unique, any others (apologies to Mock Draft Central) that are not NFBC or even the "Top 200" or "Top 300" lists in the fantasy rags have the depth and utility of "People" magazine...i.e. good only to peruse casually while taking a dump.

"I use Shandler primarily for research and projections, though I do not get too specific. None of my worksheets have guys who will hit 23 home runs for example. Anyone I think can hit between 18 and 22 home-funs is on my sheet at “20”, 23 to 27 at “25”, etc. Same with all the other counting stats except wins and saves. Most of my time is not spent on whether a guy has a chance to up his dinger count from 25 to 30, but mostly about who has what job in the lineup and what are their chances to retain that role."

Shandler, especially since he gave up control of Baseball HQ and also since he (his team) fared so poorly in his only advertised foray into what we call the "Big Leagues", has also been downgraded a bit on this boards this year. His forte and comfort zone might be the "expert" leagues, not in the wild-west format of the NFBC. But I still use and find good value in Baseball HQ, its notes and projections. Really good stuff and will certainly continue to be a part (key point here...only part) of what I look at annually.

"General musings (or amusings) about baseball this year. Forget speed. Forget 200+ strikeout guys. Forget saves. It is homeruns that are getting to be the scarce commodity to me. Before pitching became so dominant a couple of years ago, we would get about 45 guys a year who you could count on for 30+ HR a year. That is down by about a third. Statistically (in the very loosest sense of the term) that is huge. In the vacuum, the guys who can throw in 15 or 20 SB has risen, though many of these guys cannot be counted on for more than 400 AB. Up SB. Down HR. A little juice anyone?"

Absolutely correct here in my opinion. If only I had done something about it.

"I also see a growing trend among teams using platoons more and more. Used to be (it seems…not empirically proven) at least six guys on a team, barring injury, could be counted on for 500+ AB. This platoon mentality plus the constant factors such as injuries and defensive replacements put another important factor, AB, at risk."

Bang on again. There are only a few players who can Gattis results if their AB are limited.

"The dominance of starting pitching is a bit of a façade, but there seem to be more opportunity for the 200 K guy who doesn’t have to throw 250 IP to get them."

Finish the year with 1,200 K's and you are low mid-pack. Better plan on 1,350 if you want 12+ points which means either a minimum of seven starters, which of course puts saves at risk, or you are going to have to stream some starters to get extra games started, which of course puts ERA and WHIP at risk because half of those streamers will blow up. I mean, it is not like your league mates will just leave a Max Scherzer out there for you to grab. Erik Bedard anyone?

"I call my strategy “Meat and Wings”. Give me the biggest, knuckle dragging power I can grab. Likewise, spend early draft picks for the power anchor arms. One is a reflection of a commodity in short supply and the other a reflection that I think you will not get the points you need by loading up your pitching staff with middle of the rotation types."

I think I was right with this strategy. It could have worked if I had executed the "Meat" portion of the buffet.

"I was talking with the great Jupinka (always, always a pleasure by the way) at the NCAA viewing party Thursday night in Vegas. When talking about my draft position (#5 which was my 5th choice), we discussed that from that position you could launch a very good core, balanced OF/OF to start the draft and about how that could really give your base a solid foundation. I had been mulling that strategy as well and when someone as good as Quahogs speaks, you should listen, but somewhere in the night (an event of revelation somewhere between an epiphany and a gas attack) I just knew that if I did not take Joey Votto I would not be happy. He was just about the only player I was really wedded to this year. I touted him back when Greg was just beginning his industry events and I have not backed off sense. I would have taken Braun had he dropped. I would have taken Miguel Cabrera if I had the first pick. But short of Cabrera, I could not think of another batter with the potential (nothing is given) to be such a power stats and batting average anchor for my team. The extra dozen or three hits that Votto and his line-drive swing (something like 70% of line-drives fall in for hits) gives me some options later when that .250-ish batting average is not looking so bad."

Such a surprise. Steve right. Wayne wrong.

"So I passed over McCutchen, Kemp, and CarGo who could have given me more stolen bases certainly. And I did so realizing that there was a lot of first base power available later from the guns like Freeman, Davis, or Butler or even with the likes of Chris Davis, Dunn or Reynolds."

So I was wrong (passing on McCutchen), right (Kemp), and wrong (CarGo, though I would be pissed as he is hurt again at what woulda, coulda, shoulda been a key time for my team). Also, I was right (Freeman), wrong (Ike Davis), wrong (Butler), wrong WRONG WRONG WRONG (Chris Davis). I actually chose TWO firstbasemen over Chris Davis, dammit.

"Coming into the second round, I gave fleeting thought to locking up one of the few walking third basemen like Wright or Zimmerman. If I did, I lose out on the last of the upper-crust outfielders. If I don’t, I will end up with someone like Youkilis as my thirdbaseman. As horrible as the latter scenario is, I felt I needed a top outfield guy to build my team around. Had Adam Jones been there, I would have picked him. He wasn’t, so my choices were Cespedes, Heyward, B.J. Upton, Ellsbury or Bruce. B.J. would have been nice especially with the SB, but why give back all my BA upside with Votto right away. Ellsbury is too risky. If he stays healthy he is a helluva payoff, but he is definitely not a “meat” ballplayer. Bruce was tempting, but again real BA issues and he is batting 5th in that lineup, so he may not have the counting stats other than HR covered. I almost pulled the trigger on Jason Heyward, but instead settled on another guy who will hit #3 in the lineup and may be (if he does not get injured) the only guy in Oakland to get 525 AB this year in Yoenis Cespedes. I am still haunted by the label the “Cuban Rob Deer” as he was tagged last year. I do not believe last year was a fluke. It would take over 600 AB for him to get 30 HR, but 25 should be a pretty safe bet with a good BA."

Right idea, wrong execution. Cespedes I think was the pick here for great results under the risk of the little injuries. The risk did happen and his results have been negatively impacted. Are you sure we cannot count All-Star game HR? Low BA and middling power. Maybe now he will be known as “Rob Deer Lite”.

“Now it is time to begin investing in pitching. I had my choices ranked pretty much Price, Hamels, Lee and Cain. Would not cry if any of them were on my team, though Price and Hamels were a “1A” or “1B” choice. I like everything about Cain and Cliff Lee’s control would allow me to accept some wildness later if necessary, but Price was scooped up by Mr. Menna and Hamels was there for me. Ace. “

Mr. Unlucky, or at least one of them. After a horrible first two games in April, a 3.072 ERA with a 1.106 WHIP, strikeouts in 92% of IP, and a 4.2:1 K:BB ratio. And only EIGHT wins. Ace numbers, just no wins.

"I grabbed Scherzer, who was my #2 choice for my #2 pitcher (Gio, Greinke and Bumgarner were the others on my short list and all went within the next four picks after me). I had a real man crush on Max last year as I was sure he would break out. He seems healthy this spring, has a good offensive (but certainly not defensive) team behind him, is the right age, has the right skill set, and is one of the few starters who can (didn’t say will) throw more than a strike out per IP without being too wild. If he can get his IP up over 200 and avoid a disaster month like last April, we won’t just be talking Verlander when we discuss potential Tiger Cy Young’s."

One for me. The right move no doubt.

"I have two starting pitchers in my first four picks. I have never done anything like that in a fantasy baseball draft. Looking at what/who I thought would be picked in the fifth and sixth rounds’, it looked like a primo spot to get one of the few catchers who my other players wouldn’t have to carry. Posey was gone of course. I had them ranked Wieters, Santana, Rosario, VMart, Mauer and Molina, but in reality, had Wieters and Santana both been picked, I might have picked Rosario, or I might have changed my draft strategy and grabbed another OFer or corner. As it was, Santana and Molina were picked, so I got my #1 target for catchers in Matt Wieters. He should bat fourth just behind Jones and ahead of Davis, may see 500+ AB (rare in a catcher), may hit 30 HR one day, but 25 seems more likely. Where I see more improvement out of him this year is in batting average. Taking a few of those ground balls and turning them into liners or flyballs I think get him to the .280 mark. Catchers tend to peak a little later than others and though he seems to have plateaued the last couple of years, I think there is some more upside. Buster who?"

I do not think I will ever jump on a catcher this high again. By going this route, I left so much on the table. I am through with catchers this early. Wieters may break out one day as a late bloomer like Molina, but he will not be on my team unless he drops to the 15th round. The he may be a “value” pick. 

“Shields, Sabathia, Zimmermann and Dickey also went, though I had two pitchers ranked higher, my #3 and #4 for this spot. One was Cueto. Not going to get the strikeouts, but very nice control. The other was Gallardo. Not the control guy (but no Darvish), but has heat to spare. I was sweating which would be best for my team when the “Man from Midfield” Jody Earley grabbed Cueto. Gallardo is no booby prize, so I grabbed him. Now I am pretty happy. Not to test the injury poltergeist’s, but Hamels, Scherzer, and Gallardo could easily get me to half of the strikeouts I am trying to get. This opens up options for me later though I cannot ignore the category.”

Both got lucky here and unlucky. Cueto has been too hurt too long, but Gallardo’s first half was abysmal. Should have gone to a Plan B, and hold this slot for a Mike Minor type. The number out of my top three pitchers for K’s was 600. To date these guys have given me 532, mainly due to Gallardo’s problems. A miss.

“I cannot pat myself on the back because this is a quick turn-around pick coming up. And for the first time in the draft (sad to say after only six rounds) I am not completely sure who (from a short list) I am going to get here. If Ike Davis had dropped, I would have scooped him up. I really like him this year. Mr. Menna grabs him so that is his second scoop on me. I was considering speed, but really wanted another power bat. I looked at my list of available and had Hosmer, Konerko, Trumbo and Chris Davis. I was not really excited about the last two and Konerko would have fit my team better here I think now in retrospect. Instead I pulled the trigger on Hosmer. Those who have drafted with me know I like to draft last years’ hypes. People seemed to be all over Hosmer last year and this year he is so much chopped liver (comparatively). I do not think he will every have more than 20 HR power, especially if he does not hit quite so many balls on the ground, but he brings better than average SB to the position and can hit for better average if his hit rate normalizes. Konerko, even at 37, might have been better. “

Note to self. When time-travel is invented, go back and tell myself to pick Chris Davis. Nahhh. If I didn’t listen to Jupinka, why would I listen to myself? Hosmer has certainly come on (.303 BA, 11 steals), but I needed the power. He will not crack 20 HR this year. Tough to call the NFBC’s 7th ranked first baseman a mistake, but he was a power disappointment. Wrong about Ike Davis and Konerko.

“At this stage I have only one outfielder. I seriously considered Granderson here though I did not pull the trigger. I was waiting on speed, though I did not want “Judy” Pierre or “Nancy” Revere types. Looking at who was out there, I grabbed here Norichika Aoki (I was informed I even pronounced his first name right during the draft which is a minor miracle). I would take last years’ stats gladly but honestly think there is more there, like 100+ runs and 40 SB to go with the 10 HR and .280 BA. That is his upside I think and my wish I know. Gotta like hitting in front of Braun and Ramirez.”

Well, he may bat .280. Will not get to 10 HR, 100+ runs, nor 40 SB. Not even close.

“Here I changed my strategy a bit more. The remaining starting pitchers were only as good as and perhaps not better than what I thought I could get in four or five rounds. I looked at Morse and Cuddyer but again didn’t pull the trigger. The plan was to start taking closers in the eleventh round. Since I was looking at my long turn and since Soriano, Romo and Rivera had just been picked, I thought I might be looking as squeaking out “Veras” if I wasn’t careful. I grabbed J.J. Putz who I rank as a solid second tier (not bad since I think there is only two left in the top tier).”

Putz is a putz and I should have picked Cuddyer. Miss.

“At ten I nabbed Hart. I have him in my auction league as well. At this time I am not sure who would be his replacement until he returns, but with any sort of regular player I am looking at the potential for 30 HR and a plus BA out of my third OFer.”

Note to self. Bring a ball peen hammer to the next draft. When tempted to draft an aging ballplayer who guarantees they will be playing in April despite the fact they are rehabbing now, place your johnson on table and pound it with the hammer repeatedly until temptation passes. Then go get a beer. You will need it.

“My second closer came in the eleventh, more or less getting back on track strategy wise. Huston Street has some warts when it comes to being injured. To me he was the last of the second tiers before I get to Grant BallFour or Jason “I am the what?” Grilli. Most of the other closer roles are in flux or have committee written all over them. Had I not taken Street I might have went with Perkins whom I also have in my auction league. Here I also gave up on having Mike Minor. I was pretty satisfied with my first three starters and would loved to have had him on my team, but I really thought I had other needs. Josh Blumenreich grabbed him and I think will be VERY happy he did. This year Minor asserts himself as the Braves “Ace”, no matter when Beachy gets back or what miracles Medlen pulls off.”

Street was ok, but Minor was the pick here. Saves and closers are so volatile now, I simply have to reassess my strategy on saves this winter.

“12th Andre Ethier, OF LAD – OK, so he might platoon later. Always liked him. Gonna hit fifth most days he plays, maybe higher some days against certain righties. Great potential for average and good history with counting stats. Hit 31 HR….once.”

Ethier is now an absolute wuss. Never again will he be on my team again.

“13th Lance Lynn, SP STL – The Cards always seem in it. Live arm, not too wild. Needless to say I would take last years’ stats (which I think represents the limit to his upside) in a heartbeat. Still a nice fourth SP.”

Nice K’s and a great start, but not a fourth starter for NFBC purposes. Sixth maybe.

“14th Dexter Fowler, OF COL – Rockies still might trade him. Want to own him the year he hits 20 HR, steals 40 bases, hits .280 and scores 100 runs. What? It could happen! Picture pigs flying here.”

Ok. He will never be that ballplayer. Injuries there and ability not.

“15th AJ Burnett, SP PIT – What I thought was his contract year may turn out to be his swan song. Hoping for one more very good year. I am vested as he is on my auction team too. Danger Will Robinson!”

This one worked. Has done everything in playing for another big contract, but only eight wins in 28 starts on a Pirates team that is still in it. Cole Hamels Lite. Next year, after the contract (do you think the Yankees will sign him again?), he will not be on my team. Great 15th round pick.

“16th Kevin Youkilis, 3B NYY – Doooh! Somebody was going to get him. Maybe just maybe he can stay in the lineup long enough to take advantage of batting 4th in Granderson’s absence. May be rationalizing here, but there is some value at this stage of the draft.”

NEVERNEVERNEVERNEVERNEVERNEVER again. See ball peen hammer treatment above.

“17th Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C BST – Paid by the letter, the jersey makers dream. I had not really targeted Salty. Ended up with him in both auction and Main Event. Not much BA which hurts. Power is for real. More HR than Posey last year. Now THAT is a rationalization.”

Top ten catcher? Only two less HR than Posey to date in 87 fewer AB!

“18th Maicer Izturis, SS/2B TOR – Really the anti-Bonifacio pick. Just have no faith in Bonifacio. Not that Macier is great, but the rules say I need some MI-types. This is a winner if Toronto gives him 450 AB and eventually bats him second to take advantage of his contact/line-drive rate. Without those, he becomes FA fodder.”

Gambled on my MI as a strategy and lost. Really hurt my changes with missing on decent MI types.

“19th Wandy Rodriguez, SP PIT – OMG! Two Pirates pitchers! Am I insane! What is the legal limit on exclamation points! Safe pick here at sixth starter. Perhaps he and Burnett become trade bait. Lost his dominance a bit last year but gained some control. I hope he does not decline further.”

Was doing fine until the injury. Oh well…this was actually a good year to have two Pirate pitchers.

“20th Denard Span, OF WAS – Leadoff hitter for the Nationals not getting any love. Hitting in front of Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche. 30 SB, 100 runs scored, .280 BA out of the 20th round pick. Maybe?”

Again, got the .280. To date, only 69 runs and 18 SB. For the 20th round pretty decent, but really not much more than empty BA with SB upside.

“21st Stephen Drew, SS BST – You mean I need more than one MI? Damn. May start the season on the DL. This is a good pick if that is the downside. That 15/15 guy is still in there somewhere.”

No. No he isn’t.

“22nd Gordon Beckham, 2B CHW – Upside if he finds his swing. Downside minors. Unlucky 25% hit rate last year. Ok, I admit it…I picked him because he played at Georgia.”

Not unlucky. Not good. Bench material only.

“23rd Ricky Nolasco, SP MIA – Where is the potential stud from a few years ago. Maybe he pitches well in the first half and the Fish trade him. Absolute gamble.”

Got traded to a contender. Wish it had been sooner. A good gamble here. Actually ranked as my second best starter.

“24th Lucas Duda, OF NYM – Probably the only steady playing time in the Mutt outfield. I was high on him last year. This year not so much.”

Next year, even less.

Nothing came out of my last six picks, which hurt.

“Not as much power as I wanted. Could be good enough but not dominant power. Ended up with decent speed, so that much of the plan worked. Hurting bad in the middle infield and need to look for upgrades. Like most of my corners but you know the wussy at third base will hack me off before long. Satisfied with my closers and Gregerson. Top of the rotation sound and strikeout heavy. Middle solid, unspectacular. Not as much upside as I would have wanted, but a couple of Pirates traded to contenders would be nice.”

Not good power. Bad power. Not decent speed, average speed. Good starters. Bad closer. MI not unspectacular. VERY spectacular in how bad.

Did have some good FA pickups, though. The three best were:

Chris Johnson (twice but then kept him) – Nice BA for a CM type.
Jhoulys Chacin (twice but then kept him) – Fantasy wise, have been able to use him for 19 starts, with good K’s, a less than 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Nick Franklin – Nice pick up who has gone cold at the end, but helped my MI debacle.

Who knows, maybe there is a chance for me yet. I can do better. I will be better. I can compete with these guys! Damn right…next year is MY YEAR!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Excellent recap, Wayne.
I especially like the picture of Mike the Mouth and all his friends surrounding you. The tanning beds in the New York area start humming when Mike walks by!

You may not know it yourself, but it sounds as if you are getting farther from being a Shandler-ite and getting closer to the McCaffrey style of drafting. From my mind, that is a good progression.

This recap shows the angst that we all go through during a draft.
The hits, the misses.
The good, the bad.
The laughing, the crying.
Good stuff.

[ALL-IN JD]

Dan,

He left out the lack of sleep one gets when competing for a large prize!!!

[Edwards Kings]

Dan,

He left out the lack of sleep one gets when competing for a large prize!!!

As soon as I actually am able to be in the hunt and claim that affliction, I am surely to mention (i.e. bitch about) it!

[Edwards Kings]

Excellent recap, Wayne.
I especially like the picture of Mike the Mouth and all his friends surrounding you. The tanning beds in the New York area start humming when Mike walks by!

You may not know it yourself, but it sounds as if you are getting farther from being a Shandler-ite and getting closer to the McCaffrey style of drafting. From my mind, that is a good progression.

This recap shows the angst that we all go through during a draft.
The hits, the misses.
The good, the bad.
The laughing, the crying.
Good stuff.

Thanks Dan, glad you like it. And if I could replicate what McCaffrey does, that would be a good thing indeed.

More than likely, I will still be a mutt of indiscriminate (fantasy baseball drafting) origin!

[rockitsauce]

Love it !

For some reason having met this most excellent dude last March in Vegas makes his writing even better. I can put a face to the words.....a smiling, friendly face from the great state of Jawja

Actually it was a pleasure to meet my 3 favorite fantasy baseball writers - Wayne aka Edwards Kings, Dan aka Doughboys and Mean Gene McCaffrey. I don't want to be accused of being a shill but I will say that those of you who buy 6 or 7 magazines at $8 a pop every year would be better served buying Geno's book. Much like Wayne's example of paying attention only to NFBC ADP, Gene's book is for YOU, the NFBC player. The fact that it's funny as hell too is just cherry on top.

I will not bore anyone with my tale of woe that was my 1st foray into the Main Event. I can say that we (my Uncle Jimbo & I) did finish higher than our draft position (8). I'd rather talk about my uncle. He was my partner in this endeavor, indeed without him I don't even sit down at the table next to defending Champ, Dave Potts (another true gentlemen).

Jim died in the middle of July. He was less than a week from his 67th birthday. He had a stroke about 10 years ago so we knew he wasn't in the best of health, but I certainly didn't think I'd be flying across the country this year for his funeral.

While in PA helping my aunt with Jim's estate we found a report that I had done while a student at a local community college. It was for a history class called "Vietnam" and one of our assignments was to interview a Vietnam Veteran.

I had easy access to a Vietnam Veteran...Uncle Jim. As an Iraq war veteran myself at the time of this interview (1993) I was very curious to learn more of Jim's experience over there. He never spoke of it before and now I had a reason to ask. This detail is important because Jim just never spoke of his time in Vietnam to anyone. The following is one of my questions and Jim's response:

Would you do it over again? (meaning go to Vietnam of course, gosh I asked really hard hitting questions)

"I couldn't dishonor my family and have them think I wouldn't serve my country when it called".


Sorry if I veered off too much. Thanks as always for entertaining us with your writing Wayne. I predict that one of these years is gonna be YOURS....just don't pin me down on which one

[Edwards Kings]

I am truly glad you like the blog and my deepest sympathies to you and your family on your loss. Sounds like he was a very good man.