Matt Moore: A Respectable, Regressional Rebuttal

[DOUGHBOYS]

'Matt Moore is not yet a fantasy ace
Yes, I am referring to the Matt Moore who is 8-0 with a 2.29 ERA. The problem here is he is walking even more hitters than last season, a rather unsightly 4.3 per nine innings. He's surviving on a BABIP below .200 that is sure to regress. The minuscule hit rate is masking a high home run rate, which could come back to haunt Moore once his hit rate corrects. Moore's FIP is 4.43 while his xFIP is 4.19, suggesting an ERA correction is right around the corner. Moore's stuff is great, and an 8.8 K/9 rate shows he can miss plenty of bats, but as long as the walks and homers remain elevated, once regression kicks in, his ERA will not remain an ace-worthy number.'



The above was written by somebody I deeply respect. And I know he looks at players very similarly and also the opposite as I. II know that makes little sense, but neither does fat comedians having bombshell wives on tv.
Anyway, I know that Matt Moore is walking more this year. And I know in a Numerish way, this is a bad thing. Not just bad, but first week of 'American Idol' bad.
In my minds eye, his walks aren't as bad as last year though. It seemed last year, he would go on a roll and throw eight or nine balls in a row. This year, he's not doing that. He's giving himself a chance to get a batter out before possibly walking him. This doesn't sound any better, especially for a Numerish guy, but it is for me.
Now, hitters are waiting him out, hoping for a walk, not expecting one.
On 3-0 and 3-1 pitches, batters are hitting .200 vs. Moore. .200!
Which is only a little better than the total batting average Moore is dealing, .175

While Moore is giving up more walks, the obp against him has dropped .50 points from last year.
More hitters are doing even less with his strikes.
I know that the 'r word' is best in trying to track or predict Moore's future. But as I've said before, how does a progressive pitcher, a pitcher who will probably improve over time, regress? And where does he regress to?
Does he go back to last year's numbers?
A little better than last year's numbers?
I don't know.
Regression has become a one word description for, 'He can't be this good, he isn't this good, and time will show that he's not this good, and just how not good he's going to be does not need to be described, only that he'll not be as good as now'.

It'll be tough for Moore to hold onto a 2.29 E.R.A.
So in that way, sure, he'll r- r- r- regress.
At the same time, the progression begins.
Matt Moore at the end of the year, will be thought of as a fantasy ace.
Even if he's not as good as he is now.

[ToddZ]

Maybe that guy knew a little something after all.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Maybe that guy knew a little something after all.

Perhaps he does.

[Outlaw]

Very prophetic Dough- he is getting crushed today ERA up to almost 4 now