Fun with Numbers...Or, Now, the Joey Votto Thread

[Edwards Kings]

On the other hand, when Votto has a 2-2 count
or 3-2 count
Joey Votto is 21-106 or a .198 average.

That is amazing. I am not so much worried about lack of power/production on deep-count AB as some great hitters tend to spread out in the box a bit to get more coverage and therefore have a better chance to put the ball in play (i.e. get a hit). But the low BA for Votto in deep-count situations is disturbing. So, 2-2 counts and beyond it is an out or a walk. I would have expected more.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've grown a little weary of the whole Votto exercise.
Maybe this stat will more get across the points I am making....

I have already illustrated that Votto is a good hitter when being aggressive.
This statistic speaks more to his mindset when he does get deep in a count.
To a man, most Major Leaguers will say that their favorite count is the 3-1 pitch. It's referred to as a cripple pitch.
A pitch, hitters like to drive.

On 3-1 pitches, Joey Votto hits a robust .538.
Great, right?
Wrong.
You see, even though Votto hits for such a great average on 3-1, he has zero homers and only one rbi with a 3-1 pitch.
This tells me that Votto is not in attack mode, that he is looking to place the ball, as he does with other deep in the count pitches.

[DOUGHBOYS]

On the other hand, when Votto has a 2-2 count
or 3-2 count
Joey Votto is 21-106 or a .198 average.

That is amazing. I am not so much worried about lack of power/production on deep-count AB as some great hitters tend to spread out in the box a bit to get more coverage and therefore have a better chance to put the ball in play (i.e. get a hit). But the low BA for Votto in deep-count situations is disturbing. So, 2-2 counts and beyond it is an out or a walk. I would have expected more.

Two years ago, I took Joey Votto in the first round. After, I vowed never to do it again. In seeing 0-3 or 1-3 box scores, I fooled myself into thinking, 'Cool, it's a lot better than those 0-4 or 1-4! '
But, the missed opportunities in watching his games drove me crazy.
As we've all seen from this thread, he is a very Numerish player.
A lot of points can be made both positively and negatively concerning Votto.

[KJ Duke]

A case for Puig, Dan. He will go for the RBI even if you throw the ball where it's scraping the dirt - and he might even be able to hit those. I loved watching Vladdy do that.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Over .600 on first pitches for Puig!
iF an owner......YES!........

One of the more interesting things to watch during the second half will be to see how that stat holds up.
If it is even close to that by year's end, NL pitchers are stupid!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Kind of staying on subject with the direction of this thread.....
I remember seeing a 14 pitch at bat. It happened with our local minor league team.
In the press box, incredulous writers and workers were following the local hero as he battled the pitcher by fouling off balls.
Finally, on the 14th pitch of the at bat, the mighty local struck out.
For the next two innings, that at bat was the talk of the press box. 'What a great at bat!' was uttered by several folks.

I was left thinking, have we become such slaves to the pitch count that a pitcher cannot win a long battle with a hitter?
He has struck out this hitter and the only accolades were those given to the hitter.
After all, the pitcher had just thrown 11 of 14 pitches for strikes. Ten of those strikes (one taken), the applauded batter was not able to put in play.
Yet, batter wins.
Even, when he lost.

[Outlaw]

Ricky Guiteriez suppsoedly holds the offical record of 20 for most pitches in an at bat.

Luke Appling, who played for the Chicago White Sox from about 1930 to 1950, is the frontrunner. His anecdotal pitch counts range from 19 up to 24. One at bat went like follows: 4 fouls, one ball, 6 fouls, one ball, 14, yes fourteen (!) fouls, and then 2 more balls for a walk

[DOUGHBOYS]

I had a friend visit over the weekend. A fellow baseball nut. I asked him what he thought of Joey Votto......
"Great hitter. He fouls off a lot of pitches until he gets what he wants. Real good power. One of the best hitters in the game".
I told him that was what I used to think.
"Used to think?"
It was then that I showed him this thread.
As he was reading, he screwed up his face several times as if being force-fed lemons with honey.
After reading, he said, " You know you're full of shit, right?"
"Why does everybody say that?", I asked.
"Joey Votto is one of the best hitters in the game. A sure fire first rounder for any draft and it doesn't matter whether he's passive or aggressive. He's a damned good hitter"

We went back and forth on Votto, finally deciding we were going to have a 'Joey Votto Marathon' weekend. We were going to watch every at bat together, Friday thru Sunday, and make comments based on those at bats.
I told him I had a built in advantage in that Votto would be facing two tougher lefties in three days (Liriano, Locke).
He said it didn't matter. Votto hits everybody. I responded,"Correction, he WALKS everybody."
I responded that he only hits around .270 vs. lefties.
"What DO you like about Votto? It sounds like you're bent on making him a non-star He is a star, y'know."
I agreed that he was a star and should be hitting high in a lineup, although I don't think of him as an rbi guy.
"WHAT? He's had seasons of over 100 rbi, how could he not be an rbi guy?"
I told him that he's scored over 100 runs too. And that with his style of hitting that he would be better served, and so would the Reds, if he were to lead off or hit second in the lineup.
"Lead off!" "You are soooo full of shit! He doesn't run much and why waste a run producer near the top of the lineup?
I argued that he hasn't been a big run producer unless talking about the scoring end of the equation. I also debunked that speed in necessary in being a leadoff hitter. Arguing that Matt Carpenter is a supreme leadoff hitter while giving me nothing on my fantasy teams in terms of speed. Besides, for Votto fans, it would give him and Reds fan what they covet most, more Votto at bats.

Votto's first at bat followed a Chris Heisey homer.
"See? That could have been a two run shot with Votto on base!, I crowed.
"He'll go back to back and get his rbi and run scored that way, he countered.
Votto took three balls. My friend got a little uncomfortable. "It's not Votto's fault that Liriano doesn't want to throw to him!"
Votto took a strike. Then fouled off a couple of pitches before lining a single to center.
He said, "Great at bat". I said f--- you.
In Votto's next at bat, he struck out on a 2-2 pitch.
I said, "Great at bat". He said f--- you.


Votto's next at bat came with runners on first and second. RBI situation.
"Liriano's tired and knows that Votto is his last hitter. Votto is going to rock his world".
Just to be a contrarian, my friend had turned from a Votto admirer to his number one fan.
I agreed that Votto would be Liriano's last hitter and said that Liriano has never been known for his grit. I agreed that Votto should produce.
Ball one. Ball two. Ball three. Strike one. Ball four.
I asked my friend if he would call that a 'great at bat'.
"Seriously, no. He didn't force the walk, unless by reputation only. Liriano just threw him no hittable pitches "
I agreed.
I also suggested that Cincy writers must get tired of writing VW.
"VW?", HE ASKED.
"Votto Walks."
I then hit him high up on his arm.
"What was that for?"
" Slugbug! I just saw a VW!"
"Funny, real funny"
As has been the case most of the year, Brandon Phillips was the recipient of the Votto walk and hit a bases clearing double off of Liriano's reliever.
I said, "See, he should lead off"
"Shut up!"
Votto saw seven pitches his next at bat and again walked.
I felt a rap high on my arm.
"VW, Votto Slugbug!"

Votto ended that game, one for two with two walks. A .750 obp for fans of that stuff and a simple one run scored for his fantasy owners.
The next day he was to face AJ Burnett.
My friend predicted a good hitting day. I predicted that Burnett would walk him at least once (I was ready for Votto Slugbug) and that his reliever would walk him too.
Immediately in trouble, Votto came up against Burnett with runners on first and third.
I told my friend that I would pitch around him and go after Phillips.
"Yeah, that worked well for the Pirates yesterday!"
It hit me that I had given Votto too much credit. Phillips has proved himself this year, Votto really hasn't.
In retrospect, I'd just go after Votto.
Votto did something he didn't do all of Friday, he swung at the first pitch. The ball was misplayed by the Pirates 2b and Votto got a cheap rbi since the scorekeeper cannot assume a double play.
He struck out in his next at bat. His first pitch was a middle of the plate pitch that should have been belted. He took it.
I reminded my friend that Votto takes more hittable pitches than anybody in baseball.
"You don't know how hittable they are! Maybe he's guessing curveball and sees a batting practice fastball. It may look bad that he took it, but he could have been geared for another pitch".
A good point. Dammit. So I called him a dick.
Votto again hit the first pitch in his next at bat and singled.
In the sixth inning, Burnett was tiring. He had been getting out of jams most of the game.
Heisey was hitting in front of Votto and came up with two on and two out.
"Looks like Burnett won't be facing Votto. If he doesn't get Heisey, he's gone"
I agreed.
Heisey walked against Burnett and we got ready for a pitching change.
But there was none.
Clint Hurdle was going to let a tiring Burnett face Votto with the bases loaded.
I told my friend that THIS, THIS was the situation for Votto to really succeed.
He agreed.
Votto didn't get a chance.
Burnett threw three balls and a get me over fastball on 3-0 that if Votto would have had a green light, probably hit a mile, then took ball four. I looked at his splits on the computer and saw that he has only swung at four 3-0 pitches all year, going two for four with a homer.
Note to self- Votto should swing at more 3-0 pitches.
Votto has a RBI with his walk and Burnett is taken out of the game.
And Pirates fans were left wondering what the Hell Hurdle was thinking.

The Reds won 5-4. Hurdle deserved the outcome.
Votto's box went 3-1-1-2. It was very misleading since he got his rbi on a ground ball to the infield and a Manager's errored base on balls, but fantasy players never question where rbi come from, just keep 'em coming.
After the game, my friend slugged me on the arm.
Slugbug!"
We had forgotten through the bases loaded at bat that Votto had added another 'VW'.

On Sunday, Votto was to face the wonderkid Jeff Locke. Locke is like Corbin in that they are defying modernistic thinking that a pitcher can no longer be crafty and win. That they have to be loaded up with a 98 mph fastball.
I like Locke and Corbin for being reminders that pitching is still a craft. And games can be won with well placed fire as well as tanks or cannons.
Votto got up in the first inning, two outs, nobody on.
Ball one. Ball two. Ball three. Ball four.
Simultaneously, we both felt the pain of a slug on our arms, in unison, "Slugbug."
And we giggled like like little boys.
Votto led off the fourth, in a five pitch at bat, he grounded out.
In the sixth, he swung at the first strike he saw and lined out.
In the eighth inning, he came up with a batter's dream of a situation. Locke was gone and Melancon was in the game.
He loaded the bases with nobody out.
The Pirates were ahead 3-1. This would be the turning point of the game and my friend's and I weekend.
"This is where Votto comes through for a big hit!", my friend cried. "These are the types of moments Votto fans wait for. There'll be no walking him this time!"
I responded that I just hope he swings at the first strike.
He did and he missed. A foul ball took him to an 0-2 count.
I reminded my friend that Votto had one rbi all year on 0-2 counts.
"Big f----- Deal! Nobody hits well at 0-2!"
"That's my point!", I said. Votto sees a lot of 0-2 counts because of taking strikes and fouling pitches. Most see that as a good trait for a player, I don't."
My friend called me a dick.
I smiled. Knowing that friends call each other dicks when they have no retort at the ready.
Votto swung at the 0-2 pitch and grounded into a 3-6-1 double play.
No rbi and no win for the Reds. They'd lose 3-2.

Votto, for the weekend was two for eight.
On base and 'Slugbug' enthusiasts would point out that his on base percentage for the weekend was .500
Votto fantasy owners would not share in that enthusiasm.
I asked my friend if he would still take Joey Votto in 'any' fantasy draft in the first round.
"I have to admit you have a point. Being a Votto owner would be Hell, but he still has a lot of value"
I slugged him hard on the arm.
"Did Votto just take another walk somewhere?
No, you used another 'VW', the 'value word'.
What's wrong with 'value' ?
I led him to the door and said that would be the topic for another weekend.

[Edwards Kings]

Great read, Dan. But as I was going through it, there was something familiar about it....it took me a minute...then it came to me...it was almost as if, in another age, the conversation could have had some sort of retort like "...so I clearly cannot chose the wine in front of me...!"



Great read!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Wayne!

I have to admit, I was full of crap when I told my friend that Votto works himself into more 0-2 counts than most hitters. I checked after he left. He has had a result on an 0-2 pitch 31 times, ranking just 60th among Major Leaguers.
But, he does suck in that count with just the .194 average and his one rbi.
Probably a walk, if any hitter can wangle a walk on an 0-2 pitch, it's Joey Votto.

By and by, he was full of crap when he said nobody hits well with an 0-2 count.
Dustin Pedroia has 53 results with an 0-2 count,he is hitting .353 in that count.
Matt Carpenter has two of his home runs and a .300 average with an 0-2 count.

One other conversation we had and I forgot to mention was why Joey?
Why not just Joe?
We agreed that Joey makes him sound younger and that it would serve him well when reaching the Pujols years of his career.
We also agreed that Joe Votto or 'Joey V' makes him sound more gangsterish than ball player.

[DOUGHBOYS]

May as well have a little fun with this thread and start a 'Joey Votto Wa(lk)tch'....

Everyday, I will try to post what Joey did the day before. Along with a few comments
I've already talked about what he did over the weekend, so we'll start this episode from yesterday with Joey Votto himself, describing the action....

Hi everybody, I'm Joey Votto.
Dan asked me to be on this thread. When first reading it, I was a little peeved, eh?
Then, when Dan called and asked if I'd give a little peek into how I'm thinking, I told him what any player in my position would tell him.
I told him to "Fu-- off!"
Then, I thought well maybe I can tell others about how I arrive at the stats I arrive at each day.
Can I tell you one thing before I begin?
Well, I guess I can because you're not really 'here' to stop me, are you?
Don't listen to guys like Ron Shandler.
Look, I love Ron and there is no doubt Ron loves me. Look it up!
Ron loves me not because of my marvelous personality (yep, I read Mike the Mouth, what of it....Hey, where the Hell is the second most beautiful man in the world anyway?) in which he doesn't speak of, near enough.
No, Ron loves me because of my consistency. My high average. My ratios.
In Canada, most folks there say 'ratio' ?
And they'll reply AM or FM?

There's more to Joey Votto than ratios!
I can hit!
Ok, on to last night.....

WHEW! I bet when the owners of Joey Votto looked at that score last night, that thoughts of two homers and five rbi danced in your head!
Sorry 'bout that, Chief. It didn't go down that way.

In the first inning I struck out.
I blame that one on Dan. He said to pretty much swing at everything so I did. I saw five pitches.
Swung at the first four and fouled them all off.
Then, I thought why am I having a Dan at bat? I'm Joey Votto dammit!
Wait, I should have put a comma there. It makes my name look like Joey Votto dammit.
Hey! That would have advantages! Crowds could yell, 'We want a hit dammit!
Or 'dammit get a hit or my fantasy team will suck!'
Or next year, in drafts, they'll say, 'I'll take Votto dammit!
Oh. Sorry, back to last night, eh?
I took the next pitch for strike three.
It's not easy being Joey Votto.
Four fouls and I take the fifth pitch.
Dan, you're a dick! That's on you!

My second at bat, I went back to what Joey Votto wants to do, not what Dan wants me to do. Screw Dan!
I took a strike. I took a ball. I fouled a pitch. Then I took strike three.
It's this stupid thread! I'm thinking too much!
My next at bat will be different.

I swung at the first pitch and missed. Damn.
The next pitch is a ball, the next I foul off.
The next pitch comes in and I get good wood on it and line it for a single. I then score a run.
Anytime I help out in the four categories of Roto, I imagine crowds cheering....oh wait...they really are cheering when I do those things.

In my next at bat, I'm ready. We have a good lead and we see good pitches during garbage time.
Time to really help my owners.
Then, a tap on my shoulder and Dusty is pinch hitting a guy for me.
Sorry owners.
Another night, another similar box score, 3-1-1-0
I haven't had an extra base hit since the break!
And only one homer all of July!
I suck!
But hey! It could have been worse, you could have been ahead in the draft and taken Braun!
Seems I'm not so bad after all, eh?
Yes, I said the Canadian 'Eh? So what?

Don't worry owners, I'll get off the schneid.
Is that French?
I'm letting guys like Shandler and Dan get in my head. I'm breaking out tonight. I can feel it.
And even if I don't, whatya gonna do, bench me?
You know I've got you by the short ones there!
As soon as you do, I streak. I know that's the way fantasy works.
Ha!
Note to self: Get a fantasy team next year and bench myself. I'd even exceed Shandler projections! I'll make millions!
Oh, I already do.

Thanks for listening everybody and remember, tonight's the night!
Your pal, Joey Votto

[DOUGHBOYS]

Some numbers come easily to me.
714 is the number of home runs that Babe Ruth hit in his career. It's also Joe Friday's badge number at the beginning of 'Dragnet'.

660 is Willie Mays career homers prbably because of the evenness of the number.

442 is Dave Kingman's coinciding with a souped up engine in a car long ago.

56 for DiMaggio, 2130 for Gehrig, Ripken 2632, Votto 3-1-1
Wait, what?

Alright, it's a little joke that I have with myself about Joey Votto and his nightly stats. Nobody gets more
3-1-1-0 or 3-0-1-1 box scores than Joey Votto. It's not a bad thing. It would come out to a nice .333 and 81 runs and rbi, which is not bad, just not first round numbers. This year he leans more towards the 3-1-1-0 since his runs far exceed his rbi.
Last night, Votto played in a double header, so it was for darned certain that he wouldn't end up with a 3-1-1.

In the first game, Votto did what I have been preaching about in his at bats. He had two six-pitch at bats, both ending up with a strike out. In his three other at bats, he lined out on the fourth pitch, he homered on the first pitch, and lined out on a second pitch.
Classic case of having better at bats with more aggression.

In the second game, he walked in a six pitch at bat, singled on a first pitch, flied out on a second pitch, singled on a fourth pitch, and flied out on a second pitch.
For the doubleheader, his box score reads, 9-1-3-1, hr
The home run makes it all good, it was the only source of his runs or rbi.
The 4-0-2-0 line from the second game was just his second multi-hit game this month. He's had four multi-walk games.

Brian Kenny thinks that any hitter who has a .300/.400/.500 line is a superb hitter. Kenny likes a batter who takes a walk.
Kenny also likes to think of himself as a numbers guy. But sometimes, a numbers guy isn't necessarily fantasy friendly.
Joey Votto has a .317/.434/.503
Only four players in baseball can boast of this line. Others are close.
But, does this make for a great fantasy hitter?
Votto's teammate, Jay Bruce has a .274/.324/.501 This is far short of Votto's line, but when we compare the five fantasy categories we have:
Votto .317/70/16/45/3
Bruce .274/59/20/68/3

Depending on your fantasy team needs, a case could be made for wanting either Votto or Bruce. The point being that for fantasy needs a .300/.400/.500 guy means little. And alone, certainly does not make Votto a first rounder.

Do I think Joey Votto will go in most first rounds next year in NFBC drafts?
Yes.
Because at least one out of 15 minds will think he belongs in the first round, not to mention that he always gets a boost from Shandler. What makes Votto a first round pick for most is in his safety. Joey Votto will not HURT anybody who takes him in the first round. He is a most comfortable pick.
Votto is that t-shirt we love to wear that our wife would like to throw away.

Will I be taking him in the first round?
No.
To me, he has become a premier two category player at 1B. Those being runs and batting average.
At his position, he is not in the top five in home runs and not in the top 10 in rbi and his stolen bases have become like most 1b, ignored.
I want rbi from my first baseman. Votto has only hit over 30 homers once in his career. Had over 100 rbi twice. He's not a lock for those numbers.
He's more of a lock for a .300/.400/.500 season. That, he has done five years in a row now.
And while that is a good thing for Brian Kenny or Ron Shandler, as a fantasy player next year, I'll pass on him in the first round.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just when I think I'm off the Joey Votto kick, something pulls me back in.
In this case, 'the something' was a know it all broadcaster who felt no need to back up anything said with something so trivial as FACTS!
He said, "And we all know what a great two strike hitter Joey Votto is....."
C'mon man!
Read a thread, willya!?

This year, Votto has had 197 at bats with two strikes. This may seem like a lot.
It isn't.
In fact, more aggressive hitters like Adam Jones have had more. The difference being that hitters like Jones are swinging to a two strike count more so than Votto.
Joey Votto is by no stretch of the imagination even an average two strike hitter this year.
He bats .188, has one homer and only seven rbi with two strikes.
His 'great at bats' usually result in outs.

On first pitches, Votto is an MLB ranked ninth hitter in rbi with 16, has five homers, and get this, hits .458 on first pitches.
22 for 48.
And we all know what a great two strike hitter Joey Votto is.....sheesh
What a world.

[DOUGHBOYS]

And the beat goes on for Votto last night,,,,

First at bat on a 3-1 pitch hitting a Sac Fly.
You gotta love a Sac Fly. Hitters don't do it on purpose, yet they are credited with a Sac and are not charged with an at bat. Hit a grounder with a runner on third, less than 2 out and infielders back, it has the same result, but charged with an at bat.
Baseball deemed the ground out as not a sacrifice because since the infield is not playing in, the defense was 'letting' the run score. Either way, an rbi of opportunity for sure.

Second at bat, he singles on the first strike he sees. Way to go, Joey! Screw those long at bats!

Third at bat, another cheap rbi as he grounds into a fielders choice with the bases loaded. He does this on a 1-1 pitch.
So far his night is a night of ops. In his two at bats that resulted in an out, he has two rbi. For his hit, nada.

Fourth at bat, THATTABABY Joey!
Votto raps the first pitch he sees for a triple. Now 23-49 on first pitch swinging. Votto, championed as King of the great at bats is secretly masquerading as king of the first pitch swingers.


Fifth at bat, I'll let you guess.... 6 pitch at bat, full count....
That's right, the Mighty Joey has struck out.

Not a bad night for Joey. He forgets about the usual 3-1-1-0 and pleases his owners with a 4-2-2-2.
Only once did he let a count get to two strikes, and for that he paid the price with a strike out.

By the way, Nick Franklin had a nine pitch at bat yesterday. And of course the home team announcer was wild in his praise. Before striking out, announcers went through the check list of a long at bat.
Batter sees more pitches which is in his favor....check!
Pitcher throws more pitches....check!
Batter is a battler....check!
What a great at bat...check
And when Scott Kazmir wins this battle, and the war, since he pitched eight innings, the only thing the stat book sees is that Franklin was just another strike out victim.
'Great at bats' seem to be the only at bats where results are of little consequence.
Ugh.

[jvetter]

If you don't mind, I will inject a bit of numerish into the thread. I have been working with a dataset from 2005-2012 only including players over 400 PA (1699 observations) from fangraphs. I ran the correlations of Pitches/PA with batting average, BABIP, OBP, BB%, and K%.

Correlation with Pitches/PA and Batting Average = -0.16
Correlation with Pitches/PA and BABIP = 0.10
Correlation with Pitches/PA and OBP = 0.38
Correlation with Pitches/PA and BB% = 0.70
Correlation with Pitches/PA and K% = 0.50

These results are pretty intuitive especially the BB% and K%. If you see more pitches per PA, you are probably going to walk more and strike out more. This will hurt your BA but help your OBP. Of course there are exceptions to all these generalizations. The lower the magnitude of the correlation the more exceptions you will find.

I am always happy when I see my players taking walks. He is on base and has chance to score runs/steal bases(depending on the player) and he didn't hurt my batting average.

I agree that Votto would be much more helpful in the two hole. The Reds would have two of the best on base guys hitting 1-2 and Phillips and Bruce could be driving them in. Instead trying Cozart or whoever at #2 and erasing Choo on double plays before ever getting to Votto.

[jvetter]

I thought it was also fun to look at the players with the highest and lowest pitches per plate appearance (PPPA). Once again this is from 2005-2012 only including players with 400 or more PA.

Highest
Player (Year) - PPPA
Brett Garnder (2010) - 4.62
Nick Swisher (2008) - 4.53
Jayson Werth (2008) - 4.51
Jayson Werth (2009) - 4.51
Bobby Abreu (2006) - 4.46
Reggie Willits (2007) - 4.45
Curtis Granderson (2011) - 4.44
AJ Ellis (2012) - 4.44
Adam Dunn (2012) - 4.43
Mike Napoli (2012) - 4.43
.
.
44th - Joey Votto (2012) - 4.30

Lowest
Johnny Estrada (2007) - 2.99
Robinson Cano (2005) - 3.05
Jay Payton (2006) - 3.13
Vladimir Guerrero (2010) - 3.14
Yuniesky Betancourt (2008) - 3.15
Corey Patterson (2007) - 3.16
Valdimir Guerrero (2006) - 3.16
Yuniesky Betancourt (2010) - 3.16
Corey Patterson (2006) - 3.16
Yuniesky Betancourt (2007) - 3.18
.
.
556th - Joey Votto (2008) - 3.69

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good stuff!
I do have a different outlook on walks for my players.
I want my best hitters...hitting.
Especially a guy like Votto who, in where taken in drafts, would be my supposed best hitter.
A walk only has the possibility to help one category in a player like Votto's case. Since he doesn't run much. As far as a walk not hurting your average, that is a little bit like saying I'm happy to have Evan Gattis benched because he won't hurt my average by not playing.

I want the swings!

[Navel Lint]

Votto raps the first pitch he sees for a triple. Now 23-49 on first pitch swinging. Votto, championed as King of the great at bats is secretly masquerading as king of the first pitch swingers.

He is 23-49 on the first pitches that he hits into play. That's a .469 BA, great right!

He actually has swung at the first pitch in 30% of his 459 plate appearances. Making him 23-137 when he swings at the first pitch, not as great

In fact, he actually swings at more first pitches than the league average, 30% to 27%. That doesn't seem like a huge difference, but it is about 11% more than the average player.

So yes, when he hits the first pitch into play he is hitting .469, but then again.....
He is hitting .500 when he hits a 1-0 pitch into play
He is hitting .583 when he hits a 2-0 pitch into play
He is hitting .458 when he hits a 0-1 pitch into play
Other non 2-strike counts are similar.

It's when he does have 2 strikes against him that his average takes a dump, hitting just .187, which was exactly what the league average was with two strikes in 2009 ( I haven't found a number for the past 3 seasons, although my guess is it's about the same)

I guess he should never get two strikes against himself

[DOUGHBOYS]

Votto raps the first pitch he sees for a triple. Now 23-49 on first pitch swinging. Votto, championed as King of the great at bats is secretly masquerading as king of the first pitch swingers.

He is 23-49 on the first pitches that he hits into play. That's a .469 BA, great right!

He actually has swung at the first pitch in 30% of his 459 plate appearances. Making him 23-137 when he swings at the first pitch, not so great.

In fact, he actually swings at more first pitches than the league average, 30% to 27%. That doesn't seem like a huge difference, but it is about 11% more than the average player.

So yes, when he hits the first pitch into play he is hitting .469, but then again.....
He is hitting .500 when he hits a 1-0 pitch into play
He is hitting .583 when he hits a 2-0 pitch into play
He is hitting .458 when he hits a 0-1 pitch into play
Other non 2-strike counts are similar.

It's when he does have 2 strikes against him that his average takes a dump, hitting just .187, which was exactly what the league average was with two strikes in 2009 ( I haven't found a number for the past 3 seasons, although my guess is it's about the same)

I guess he should never get two strikes against himself

The 23 for 137 IS great though. In reality, he has only made 26 outs in 137 at bats. THAT is over an .800 average!

We can skew numbers any which way to prove a point. But, this year, the earlier Votto puts on his hitting shoes, the better chance his owners have of cashing in.
The stats you show indicate that.

'Great at bats' are for broadcasters. Great at bats in which Votto hits an early pitch are for his drafters.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Also Russ, you're eliminating the power side from Votto. Votto becomes a different hitter with two strikes. While a guy like Justin Upton is not as much of an accomplished hitter as Votto, he'll throw average out the window in trying to hit with power with two strikes. Upton will,of course, strike out more.
Is Votto really doing himself favors by swinging defensively with two strikes?
The adage is to shorten up with two strikes because now it becomes a possible one and done at bat.
Votto has one homer with two strikes. He's striking out more this year anyway. If I own him or even coach him, I'm suggesting a change to his two strike philosophy.

Here's the conversation:

(Votto comes back to the dugout after striking out)

Me: Hi Joey, you don't know me, but do you realize that you only have one homer with two strikes this year?

Votto: Who are you?

Me: I own you in a fantasy league.

Votto:

Me: AND, you hit closer to .500 when hitting the first pitch!

Votto: How'd you get in here?

Me: You haven't had more than three rbi this year in a game because with runners on, you tend to want to look at more pitches. Go up there and swing at that first pitch, you'll be glad you did!

Votto: Am I being punked?

Me: Here's another thing.....

Votto: So, I go up against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning with runners on and you want me to jump on the first pitch?
Kimbrel throws harder than Braves Starters, dumb ass!
I need a pitch or two to time the speed. You freakin' numbers guys think it's so damned easy. I'll tell you what (undressing), you wear the frEakin' uniform and YOU swing at the first pitch from Kimbrel (Throws his uniform at me).
See you on the FAAB pile, Meat!!!

Me: Hey, Joey Votto knows what FAAB IS!!!!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm greedy. To a degree, I think we all are. If we hear that one of our players got a hit, we want to know if it drove somebody in. We want to know if he scored. Did he steal a base?
The 4-0-4-0 box score is almost as bad to me as a 4-0-0-0. I know, I know, my average is helped immensely, blah, blah, blah.
But with a 4-0-4-0, I don't think about my average, I think about the missed opportunities. I curse my players teammates for not putting him in better position to succeed FOR ME. Greed is good in fantasy baseball.

Last night Joey Votto didn't have a 4-0-4-0, he did have a 4-0-2-0. On a team like Votto's, this doesn't happen often. A good thing for his owners. Votto obviously did not listen to me when I met him in the dugout after his at bat yesterday.
His first three at bats were balls hit with a two strike count. He singled, grounded back to the pitcher, and grounded into a double play in those at bats. In his last at bat, he singled on the second pitch thrown to him.
Votto made his owners night by stealing his fourth base.
Is there anything better than getting a sb or homer from an unusual source. Like being forced to play Donavan Solano because our mid-infielders dropped like flies (infield?) and Solano hits a homer.
Life is good when something like that happens.

I have a friend whose been divorced twice. He can't live with women and dies on the vine without them. He makes online dates. He goes to singles bars. He probably met Joey Votto there.
This year, Joey Votto has 37 extra base hits. In 2010, Votto had 37 home runs.
Votto is a changed man over the last two years. He's become a contact guy with two outs.

Here's an example:
The following chart shows what Joey Votto does with two strikes over the last four years
First column is hits, second is extra base hits, third is home runs....

2010- 60/23/9
2011- 59/23/10
2012- 50/22/2
2013- 38/8/1

I compared this with another player. A first baseman like Votto who hits similarly to Votto in that, he too, is known for 'great at bats'.
Blecch.
Adrian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez has gone through changes of teams and had an injury this same time frame, but the similarities are fascinating...

2010- 68/25/15
2011- 66/21/8
2012- 57/13/2
2013- 38/13/6

Have pitchers gotten smarter over the last two years?
Are they not throwing hitters like Votto, 'hittable' pitches with two strikes?
As Votto and Gonzalez get older, are they becoming more conservative in their approach at the plate?
Is it those damned PEDS?

It could be all. In 2010, 77 players had at least 20 home runs.
In 2013, with most teams already playing 100 games, only 18 players have 20 homers. Only 47 players have even 15 homers.
Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree with Votto. This may not be a Votto problem as much as it is an overall MLB problem.
And it is a problem.
Fans still dig the long ball. And even with fences being moved in at larger venues, it's not helping much.

Maybe we're going back in time. 1968 was the year of the pitcher. Like Chris Davis, there was one behemoth who told the pitcher's year to go get screwed.
Frank Thomas.
Thomas hit 44 homers that year. Only seven players had 30. Only Thomas had over 40.
Only 23 players had 20 homers in 1968.
1968, the pitcher's year, was the end of the golden era in baseball. Soon, playoffs and free agency would change everything baseball knew.
We're not at a stage that rival's the pitchers year of 1968. But, we are headed in that direction. Fast.
And that, that, is not Joey Votto's fault.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Short and sweet for Joey Votto.
He hit against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw and had a 4-0-1-0.
His hit, on a count with just one strike. His outs, all with two strike counts. Nuff said.

[knuckleheads]

This year, Joey Votto has 37 extra base hits. In 2010, Votto had 37 home runs.
Votto is a changed man over the last two years. He's become a contact guy with two outs.

Dan, I think 2010 was the exception, not the rule for Votto. Since 2008, here are Votto's home run totals or 162-game pace for last year and this year:

2008 - 24
2009 - 25
2010 - 37
2011 - 29
2012 - 21 (pace for 162 games)
2013 - 25 (pace for 162 games)

Take 2010 out of the picture and Joey Votto has established himself as a 25 homer guy...who is on pace to lead the league in OBP for the fourth straight year.

He runs the bases well. I think he is more of a run scorer than run producer, which feels odd given his physical make-up. I see him as a

.320-avg. 25-HR, 85-RBI, 110-R, 8-SB hitter. First rounder all the way. Incidentally, that is nearly exactly the pace he is on for this season.

In any scenario, it's not like he's Sean Casey or Mark Grace.

[Navel Lint]

Short and sweet for Joey Votto.
He hit against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw and had a 4-0-1-0.
His hit, on a count with just one strike. His outs, all with two strike counts. Nuff said.

Or, another way to say it............


Ball, Ball, Strike (looking), Ball, J Votto doubled to deep center - Patently took the first 4 pitches he saw, then a double on the first pitch he could handle. No RBI or run scored because the bums in front and behind him made outs.

Strike (foul), Ball, Strike (looking), Ball, Foul, Strike (swinging), J Votto struck out swinging- Aggressively fouled off the First pitch trying to drive in the runner on second, fouled off another before striking out on a slider

Strike (looking), Strike (looking), J Votto lined out to left - Frozen like a pizza on a slider and curve ball from the best left hander in the NL, then lined out on a fastball leading off the inning

Strike (foul), Ball, Strike (swinging), Foul, J Votto lined out to left- Aggressively fouled off the First Pitch trying to tie the game with a HR as he lead off in the 9th inning down 1 run, aggressively swung at and fouled off two more pitches, then lined out

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good stuff!

What is really interesting is that Joey Votto may be the safest first round pick in history.
He hardly ever gets hurt.
He hardly ever slumps.
And no matter the other four categories, most drafters like batting average in the first round.

Contrast that now with Ryan Braun.
No matter the opinions of the just suspended Braun, Braun will probably not miss time next year and he'll have a track record that is unparalled.
Not to mention that he hardly ever gets hurt, hardly ever slumps, and has a high batting average.
And despite that, he could be the unsafest first rounder in history.
Gotta love fantasy baseball.