STATS Fantasy Advantage - Where Will Braun Be Drafted In '14

[Tom Kessenich]

We're going to talk about the Braun suspension on our Sirius show tomorrow night and among the topics of discussion will be where he will go in fantasy drafts next year. We'd like to hear your thoughts and we'll mention the best on the air. So give us some feedback on where you believe Braun will go in fantasy drafts in 2014.

[Outlaw]

We're going to talk about the Braun suspension on our Sirius show tomorrow night and among the topics of discussion will be where he will go in fantasy drafts next year. We'd like to hear your thoughts and we'll mention the best on the air. So give us some feedback on where you believe Braun will go in fantasy drafts in 2014.

With PEDS problem behind everyone and Braun, assuming he is healthy going into spring training, I would say some will take him around round 3-4, probably somewhere between 30-60th pick. However, If I was drafting prior to XMAS or in October, I wouldn't touch him. There still remains a major concern on what other legal entities or problems he and others may get caught up in. No one should be surprised to hear whispers of criminal and civil actions occurring. Personally with all I have learned about PEDS over time, and what I suspect how far his usage dates back and his poor performance this year, I don't see him more than .275, maybe 20 HR and 80 RBI next year and maybe 3-8 SB's on 550 AB's. He's going to need a Team too who wants him, remains to be seen if that will be the Brewers. He'll get paid, but he could become a huge headache for any team he plays on, Feel sorry for the Brewers and thier fans.

Unfortunately not an easy question to answer right now and like many who drafted this year, he will be avoided like the plague next year no matter what happens moving forward. He may have had an ADP of 3 this past draft year, but that does not count how many Fantasy players avoided him when they had a pick in the top 5, my guess is a lot. Those that believed he did nothing wrong, took him.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I have a feeling that more than one in 15 will ignore the PEDS effect. They'll think that Braun can put up close to the same numbers. They've looked at Braun over the years and will look at Braun's past stats and think that PEDS couldn't have helped him THAT much.
Simple fact is, WE DON'T KNOW.
We don't know how long he's been doing it.
We don't know if it's talent over PEDS.
We don't know if it's PEDS over talent.
We don't know if we've ever seen Braun without PEDS.

Most drafters like their first round picks to be pristine.
Free of injury.
Free of long slumps.
Free of controversy.
But that is MOST drafters.
One in 15 will take Braun in the first round.
They'll see an edge. They'll take the gamble. They'll go after the (gulp) 'value'.

Braun had his best year after being accused and lying to everybody about not taking PEDS. The comments and stories won't have much of an effect on him. Braun has looked at himself in the mirror and been comfortable with what he's seen throughout his baseball years. He'll 'sticks and stones' all comments.
As for me, I won't be taking him in the first round.
Fantasy players, on whole, are baseball fans too. We like rooting for our players.
I can't root for Ryan Braun.

While that one in 15 drafter finds 'value' in Braun from looking at past stats and ignoring the PEDS side of the equation, I'll find more value in not seeing him on my team and smiling with each failure.
This past week, somebody finally bid on ARod in my Main Event League. Even with stories about him coming back over the last month and hitting homers in rehab, he stayed on the FAAB trash heap.
I wasn't going to put a dollar on him. And I love the Dollar Store.
Spending even that dollar on him, and winning him, means I'd have to root for him.
Even fantasy players have their limits.

[Greg Ambrosius]

C'mon everyone, give us some opinions on Braun for tonight's show. We want to look forward and give the SiriusXM listeners some insight into next year. Maybe there are some owners who now WILL NEVER DRAFT BRAUN AGAIN. We want to hear from those owners. Or maybe some folks still believe he is a Top 10 overall pick. Does he really have no skills at all without PEDs?? In that case, as Outlaw says above then he's nothing more than a third or fourth round pick.

Let's hear some feedback today and we'll read some on the air tonight. Thanks all.

[Money]

C'mon everyone, give us some opinions on Braun for tonight's show. We want to look forward and give the SiriusXM listeners some insight into next year. Maybe there are some owners who now WILL NEVER DRAFT BRAUN AGAIN. We want to hear from those owners. Or maybe some folks still believe he is a Top 10 overall pick. Does he really have no skills at all without PEDs?? In that case, as Outlaw says above then he's nothing more than a third or fourth round pick.

Let's hear some feedback today and we'll read some on the air tonight. Thanks all.

I would be very skeptical to draft him at all. The fallout from the fans and the media will be severe. We don't know where this whole thing is going and he's one of the two poster children for the current mess. I wouldn't draft him at all if the draft was today.

My best guess for next season with the limited information we have compared to what we will have is that he goes a lot later that most will think. As I write this whatever any of us come up with will be an extremely uneducated guess.

My uneducated guess is out side of round 12.

[Outlaw]

He's on my undraftable list for next year. That being said, if he has a good year next year, I could see myself drafting him the following year. I want to see how he does next year first. He did not perform anything more than a 5-6 round pick this year until he was suspended, no matter whether it was an injury for a few weeks he had, no PEDS anymore, all the pressure he was facing. The pressure on him next year will be enormous and no one knows how he will respond, after all he is a human being and one can only feel some compassion for what he will be going through. There are also many other unknowns about him going into next year at this point in time. A lot of owners got burned by him this year, but as Dough says, there will always be some that see him as possible value somewhere in the top 30 for next year.

[Money]

He's on my undraftable list for next year. That being said, if he has a good year next year, I could see myself drafting him the following year. I want to see how he does next year first. He did not perform anything more than a 5-6 round pick this year until he was suspended, no matter whether it was an injury for a few weeks he had, no PEDS anymore, all the pressure he was facing. The pressure on him next year will be enormous and no one knows how he will respond, after all he is a human being and one can only feel some compassion for what he will be going through. There are also many other unknowns about him going into next year at this point in time. A lot of owners got burned by him this year, but as Dough says, there will always be some that see him as possible value somewhere in the top 30 for next year.

I will feel no compassion for him what so ever as he will be making millions once again. I doubt many folks will feel anything but disgust for him.

[Outlaw]

He's on my undraftable list for next year. That being said, if he has a good year next year, I could see myself drafting him the following year. I want to see how he does next year first. He did not perform anything more than a 5-6 round pick this year until he was suspended, no matter whether it was an injury for a few weeks he had, no PEDS anymore, all the pressure he was facing. The pressure on him next year will be enormous and no one knows how he will respond, after all he is a human being and one can only feel some compassion for what he will be going through. There are also many other unknowns about him going into next year at this point in time. A lot of owners got burned by him this year, but as Dough says, there will always be some that see him as possible value somewhere in the top 30 for next year.

I will feel no compassion for him what so ever as he will be making millions once again. I doubt many folks will feel anything but disgust for him.

I can understand that point of view Joe, especially the money part and its a good point, becuase it's the usually the money that makes these people make the choice to cheat. I could rant on about why players like Bruan, Arod and all the hundreds of others have cheated, bottom line is they grew up as kids watching the Bash brothers and Bonds and Sosa being glorified. Bonds walked becuase Anderson protected him, he should still be in jail now had he been found guilty of all charges, instead the supplier did the 1 1/2 years in jail for him by being silent and one can only suspect, becuase he was promised money down the road.

[knuckleheads]

I know that I will take Ryan Braun ahead of Skip Schumaker and Matt Kemp. I'm guessing that will be in the late first round or early second round.

[EA Sports]

Guess? Main Event ADP between 13-16

[Edwards Kings]

The earlier the draft, the later the round. It would really surprise me if he made it to the 8th round in the early drafts. Assuming a healthy spring? By the time the Main Event drafts roll around in late March, he will second round. That potential is just too much to pass by too often.

Just to make Doughboys do a spit take, I am thinking Votto/Braun to start the draft. Afterall, what do I have protect, my reputation?

[KJ Duke]

Right now, I'd slot him somewhere in the 8th-11th round for next season.

Looking at a main event league this year for comparison, some of the outfielders in that range were Victorino, Crawford, Pence, Morse, N Cruz, Beltran. Given the question of how much past performance was real and how he performed this season, presumably without drugs, that looks reasonable for his talent. But it might still be optimistic with the potential for more off-field distractions and pyschological factors.

Of course all it takes is one guy in each draft that is mesmerized by past performance "upside" to grab him much earlier. I'm sure that will happen in a lot of leagues. There are a handful of players that are perennially overdrafted (stanton, ichiro) until perhaps 3 consecutive seasons of disappointment, after which, they finally adjust down to proper draft slots. Braun could easily be in that category next season.

[Glenneration X]

If he falls far enough, he will be on my team. Personally, I don't think he falls far enough. If he has a hot spring, he'll fly up the boards. The NFBC is all about upside, I think his ADP will offer a decent amount.

[jvetter]

If I were to draft today for next year, officially he would be on my do not draft list. But realistically (or unrealistically) if he was still there sometime around round 12-15 (I don't think he would still be there), I would consider taking him. My guess is that if a group of people drafted today for next year, he would be gone by round 6.

A lot depends on how things go in the off-season and especially in spring training. If he is all set to play and the suspension is behind him and he is mashing in spring training, I could see him easily creeping back into the first round. He will probably be one the more variable picks this upcoming drafting season.

Even without all the PEDs controversy, I think we have seen Braun's best fantasy baseball seasons. I think his speed is mostly gone (caught 5 out of 9 times this year), and I don't think you can blame that on his thumb (maybe his neck?). Maybe he can settle into Matt Holliday type level of production for the tail end of his career.

[Glenneration X]

I'm curious. What was Melky's ADP this season and was it his highest ever?

[Fourslot40]

Braun has proven through his entire career at every level in college, majors and minors that he can rake. When PED's played a role who knows. In 2012, following his original case he put up 41/ 112 and 30 SB's. Odds are that he wasn't using during that year with all of the heat on him. Assuming he was clean, he was putting these numbers up while keeping his secret which tells me that he is strong enough mentally to block out distraction when it comes to hitting. How far would he fall from those numbers? Probably not very far based on the PED. He's not a muscle-head. There was never any physical transformation unlike those in the hardcore steroid era. More than likely, the benefit was not being as fatigued and recovering quickly from exertion to maintain strength during the long season as opposed to an overall increase in strength.

Without PED's, if you get a low end 28/ 100/ 25, that's pretty good and falls in round 3-6 range. His speed will remain steady. I disagree with round 8 or higher. Melky Cabrera was going in round 7 in the Main.

[JohnP]

As a Brewer fan, I am just so angry at Braun. I bought into his explanation whole heartedly and had him as a top 3 pick this year. Looking back at his explanation and the news conference at Miller Park infuriates me. The Braun jersey will never be worn again. He is scum.

As a fantasy baseball player.....I need to put that aside and in time, I am sure I will. Winning at this game is all about advantages / edges. We all like to play it safe in Round 1. I don't really think Braun cracks the top 15 next year but I think he will certainly go in round 2 or 3. Look at some of the hitters that went this year in rounds 2 and 3 - beltre, ellsbury, bj upton, heyward, kinsler, cespedes, etc. I know hind sight is 20/20 but certainly some there are some injury and fantasy category deficiencies in this group. I think Braun is a turd but despite his turdism I could see myself drafting him in rounds 2 or 3 looking to catch first round numbers and creating an edge on the competition. Unfortunately that edge might be a cliff.

[Rainiers]

I think Outlaw's hitting projections are little bit more than fair. For me, that would make him an outfielder worth probably about an 10th-11th round draft pick. He will go much higher, as others will hold out hope for more. I suspect he goes in the 2nd-3rd rounds. If he does have a hot spring, I'd move him up some, but then again, so will others....he'd probably make the first round in that case. If he is ice cold in the spring I suspect he could drop to the fourth or fifth round.

[Outlaw]

I was looking at the 5 different NFBC leagues and the top 10 so far from each league. Not one team has Ryan Braun. Thats 50 teams. To me it says, if you blow you first round pick, odds are good you will not get into the top 10/contend. Is someone like Braun worth that type of risk next year? Now I might be wrong in that thinking, but its about risk/reward in terms of Braun for next year.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I'm curious. What was Melky's ADP this season and was it his highest ever?

These are all great responses and I can't wait to announce some of these on the air. So we have between end of first round/early second round and Round 12???? Wow, now that's the widest difference of opinion since some of our early disputes of 2004!!

So Melky Cabrera was suspended for 50 games last year, we all knew he was a PED user and his ADP in the NFBC was 110, and Braun is going in Round 12 next year?? So without PEDs, Braun is going to hit .270-15-75-15??

Hey, Melky looks like a shell of himself and Braun is definitely in line for the worst ridicule since...well, maybe ever. He's an admitted liar, PED user, sham, farce, whatever else you want to call him. But fantasy baseball owners want upside and I just don't see Braun falling to Round 7 or later, but that's just me.

Keep 'em coming. We have to talk about the future and let people know what to expect next year. This is why we'll open drafts in November!! No time to wait to see where Braun and others go. It should be another fun, fun year, but I doubt any Braun owners from this year are trusting him again in 2014. That's the easiest call of the season to make.

[Likewhat17]

Perhaps I'm in the minority here, but assuming Braun evades further suspension, I can't see any way that he drops out of the Top 20 in next year's drafts.

Those who are spouting off about Round 12, or indicating that "maybe" they'd take him if he fell to the sixth or seventh round, I think are clouded by anger over his current situation.

Yes, he's a gigantic douchebag who knowingly ripped off the Brewers,the fans and all of Major League Baseball, lying and laughing in everyone's faces alone the way. That doesn't change the fact that he's a five-category contributor.

Even by advanced metrics that I've used to study performance spikes and falls of alleged PED users, there is no way to accurately predict what type of affect the juice had on his overall numbers. But those who think he's all of a sudden going to be a .275/80/18/90/10 type are surely mistaken.

While nothing that Braun says can be taken seriously,I have to imagine that even with his massive ego he wasn't ballsy enough to continue using during the extreme scrutiny that he faced throughout last season. You know, the season where he put up a .319/108/41/112/30 fantasy slash.

The extended absence is likely to take a toll on his timing, and sure his power may decline a tick, but there just won't be the massive fall off the cliff that many around here are predicting.

Put me down for .295/95/28/105/24

In my books, even as an outfielder, that places him securely in the 13-20 range overall, where I believe those drafting from the 13-15 holes will routinely snatch up the roided-out assclown. I know for certain that he won't get by me in Round 2.

[Tom Kessenich]

Perhaps I'm in the minority here, but assuming Braun evades further suspension, I can't see any way that he drops out of the Top 20 in next year's drafts.

I think there's a lot of emotional reaction to Braun right now which is understandable. He's pissed a lot of people off, myself included. But just last week we asked people to pick their Top 30 for 2014 and Braun was 9th and that was factoring in him being suspended THIS year. It's hard for me to believe he'll drop 180 spots in drafts after serving his suspension.

If his PED use was primarily to return more quickly from injuries (which seems to be the case) then one would have to think he's going to spend a massive amount of time on the DL going forward in order to justify ranking him that low. That can't be ruled out, especially given his month-long stint on the DL this year. But in order to drop him to the 12th round or later you have to also believe he's going to either suffer a massive decline in skill during his suspension or every aspect of his career to date has been primarily influenced by PED use only. As much as the guy sickens me right now I can't buy into either of those beliefs. That's why I'd be very surprised if Braun fell out of the Top 50 next year and I could easily see him moving into the Top 20-25.

Like Greg said, tune into the show tonight as we'll talk more about Braun and discuss this thread on the air.

[DOUGHBOYS]

No matter the feelings, there will be few drafts where 15 of 15 drafters will let him go past the first round.
It's that simple.

[Tom Kessenich]

No matter the feelings, there will be few drafts where 15 of 15 drafters will let him go past the first round.
It's that simple.

No doubt. The question will then become - was that the right decision to make? No way to answer that as we're sitting here today. But we've all had players in countless drafts we didn't want for a multitude of reasons who end up being much better than we anticipated. This isn't some Joe Schmo, though. This is a guy who, until the events of this week, was on a first-ballot ticket to Cooperstown. That's what makes all this so fascinating.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There's also the unanswered question of how long this has been going on and has it ever stopped.
We don't know.
He also passes his 25-29 years of age.
30 is not old in baseball, but it is when injury starts being harder to recover from.
We can find reasons not to take him, but during the off season, numbers become king in evaluating players.
Braun has those numbers.